Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240711 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 11, 2024

In 2020. The mcrib is back. We will give you the juicy details. The nasdaq and dow gained. Alphabet soared to a new record as we kick off the final months of this year do you keep with the big tech trade . What does that mean what he is getting himself into. James mcdonald, i want to say on the sides and behind the cameras, welcome i know we are thrilled to have you and cnbc is thrilled to have you. And i know melissa lee is tlo d thrilled to have you because i believe you both attended harvard. Maybe he didnt hear me. He said thank you a lot of stocks specifically google, has been carrying finerman for years but can these continue higher, yes. Although i am skeptical on the broader market, google has been steadfast. They had an amazing quarter, huge run post earnings so we said that night that despite the 12 or 13 move, the stock was probably cheaper then than in the past 24 hours. It is only trading 28 times next years number with a huge cash forward and probably 21 or 22 growth so to me, thats a name you want to stay with, melissa. Karen, when you have talked about google or alphabet as they call it these days and the rerating they deserve. What carries it higher i am still a believer here. A little bit of what carries it higher, there no alternative the last quarter was phenomenal. To be this big and keep growing and that was with travel not doing particularly well. I think we will be in a much better place for travel advertising. I am hanging on to google. I am not selling any of it i like it. It is my favorite of the mega complex, but i own pretty much all of them except netflix do you have thoughts about this trade you have to bleed in fmaga in order to believe in the markets or vice versa. I dont think so at all what we saw over the last several weeks and months was there was this rotation, whatever you want to use, into some of the small caps, and a lot of these stocks trade sideways to down that was rotation, wasnt a reflection of the fundamentals now the fundamentals havent changed that much. We will have some kind of stimulus even if the economy gets worse i have the fed and stimulus, and let me throw out the last part of it. There is a very weak dollar. To me it seems these things are you ripe for a rerotation james, you have been calling for a big pull back in the market so that rerotation would fly in the face. Thank you for the warm welcome and thrilled to offer an opposing view. These companies have gone so high for so long if someone hires me i have to buy low and sell high. I like to protect myself against an imminent pullback at these levels these markets cant continue to go higher, so we want to be defensive even in big tech it is implied you are long in the market people arent hiring you today to be in cash. Emphasizing where to put capital, we want to initiate positions because it gives exposure to benefiting to all of the risk in the market and cheekier so we want to initiate and protect against potentials facing the economy the vaccine, there are so many issues getting to the mark ball cue, ball cue its interesting. I know this caught your fancy. We saw industrials go negleativ and yet yield 10. 2 for most of the day. Thats interesting. If anything would concern me about the mark or what could turn things around or turn things negative in the market, its the inflation thats really what is being, in my view, priced in here. Weaker dollar, we know that has commodities, and prices will go higher if you look at inflation bonds so these are bonds like the tips peeps can look at t. I. Pichlt p. They hit all time highs. Why is that bad for stocks in the beginning, the bad stuff happens in the beginning, but eventually that erodes your earnings and you have to readjust price to earnings ratio, and if you have that like a lot of these tech stocks, that is a problem thats not today, but something that b. K. Is watching. In the beginning janet yellen and Jerome Powell will pretty much be on the same page when the rubber hits the road where they could start disagreeing is when things pick up you are worried about that because the markets are looking to the other side. Part of that is inflation returning. I am set up for inflation returning. I agree with b. K. , a little inflation is good, a little help with the banks, position, for example, but beyond that i dont know if a stimulus package that is big enough can get through before december or after . It depends on where the senate goes i think that 1. 6 or 8 trillion, i dont think we will see close to that. Todays rally may be the start of something bigger. It is said when the market is up and heading into the end of the year, we see gains 100 of the time really tom, 100 of the time . Thats history so it doesnt have to repeat, but it does confirm that strong markets end strong we have had a great yeartodate we are up doubledigits i think in shocking contrast to depression we have gone through. But that also means that december shouldnt be weak it should finish strong. Do histories tell us how it finishes strong . Markets were turning, but the epicenter trade which i guess people call cyclicals gained about 20 . As much as i think big cap have a catchup in december, i think it would be in epicenter december is a short time frame. I understand this is called fast money, but january 1, are we pulling forward gains from 2021 i think 2021 bodes gains for some future period i think 2021 will be tricky because i think 2020 was a lot about market symmetry. Everything you talked about are important. The economy is recovering. Maybe inflation doesnt happen, but the risk does. They will be real attractive stocks in 2021 its karen. Tom, thanks for being on the show kudos to you for having good calls many times throughout the year in the period of time, how many years qualify to set up for that december that you refer to with market up 10 to 15 . There are 75 years between 1945 and today, of which 13 fall in that 10 to 15 range. So 100 of the time you had gains. There were 23 instances where you were up more than 15 yeartodate and the markets were up 77 of the time. We are talking about 100 s p. I love karens questions. Tom, your forecast is for triple next year . You stand by that or do you want to ratchet that higher given the run we have seen what that triple is based on is the year after happening. Bitcoin had a happening this year bitcoin is up almost 200 . It has had a great year but looks textbook its really the year that follows the happening. So 2017 is the year following the happening. So i think 2020 is more like 2016 where the rally was starting so 2021 would be like 2017 2017 was an insane year for bitcoin and i think something similar could happen. 14u 100 of the time, the market is up. Do you buy that . The only thing that is 100 if i applied to harvard, i would be rejected 100 of the time karen mentioned that tom has been remarkable and steadfast. But the things that concern me and i share some of the skepticism, there is inflation in all of the wrong places and the u. S. Dollar getting torched is inflationary whether or not jan he wi janet yellen wants to acknowledge it but resource and mining stocks, 155 into tlt, that is your line in the stand that comes in around 98 basis points or thereabouts. Goldman sachs going full run on copper. James, you found something that thomas didnt find thomas is brilliant i have sat in on a few presentations in the past. We have heard the word unprecedented in 2020 an unprecedented number of times from an unprecedented number of people we have seen records shattered almost every week on the data on stocks, earnings, valuations, gdp metrics, so on and so forth. I am short this market, short the s p is and i will remain short until the inauguration racial coming up, stocks lower on sales force after them announcing their plan to buy slack. And moderna. Tcn. It is trading more like whether that is a good thing or bad thing when fast money returns. Ok, just keep coloring there. And sweetie can you just be. Gentle with the pens. Okey. Okey. I know. Gentle. Gentle new projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database so you can start hiring right away. Claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed. Com home. [whats this . ] oh, are we kicking karly out . We live with at t. It was a lapse in judgment. At t, we called this house meeting because you advertise gigspeed internet, but we cant sign up for that here. Yeah, but im just like warming up to those speeds. Youve lived here two years. The personal attacks arent helping, karly. Dont you have like a hot pilates class to get to or something . [ muffled scream ] stop living with at t. Xfinity can deliver gig to the most homes. Numbers are down o salesforce after it was announced they would buy slack i listened to an amped up ceo. It took him 17 minutes slack, calling it our ultimate vision it turns them into one of the biggest players in Enterprise Software it was called a match made in heaven salesforce investors arent exactly pleased. Just three months ago mark all but promised not to do deals in this environment he said, quote what did investors do . They settled in for margin improvement after the last two accusations. What they just got was the largest acquisition ever and is in a battle with its larger rival microsoft. It could help out longterm, but slack quarterly earnings, they are a reminder why that company has been a relative underperformer among the work from home names. Down 39 it is far from surges in Revenue Growth we have seen from other stay at home names like zoom during the pandemic. Back to you. Dont miss jim cramers exclusive interview. That is at the top of the hour on mad money. Two other acquisitionings salesforce has been involved in. For a guy who said that big deals arent in his wheel house, its interesting as dan nathan pointed out, debo knows i think they completely overpaid. I think that will come to frou igs and the market will understand that. And by the way, go back to august 26th when this stock was trading at 205 what i think you are seeing here is a complete 180, round turn of that 205 to 288 level. I think there is a chance the stock settles in between 205 and 210. I know jim is going to have marc on later and typically thats a positive catalyst. B. K. , do you like crm i have liked them i think the concern that investors will have is is this a signal that internal growth is slowing . We are seeing that sequential growth slow down investors will say i was invested in a company i thought could handle it and said i am not going to do more investments and then they do this. You could have disgruntled shareholders and you could have tech mergers. These are typically horrible investments. To guys point, it is probably overvalued but, you have marc at the hell being, a helm and he is not a guy i would want to bet against. Karen, do you buy this . I understand the theory i think what b. K. Is getting at is the rate of growth is slow. The rate of growth is extraordinary. I just bought some just before the show at 231. 70 i think its interesting benioff deserves the benefit of the doubt. The guy comes out 17 billion in debt they are paying 1 interest on eightyear paper if they can buy something less than 100 times earnings, that is more Financial Engineering much i think he deserves the benefit of the doubt i like it. I bought some. He has done extraordinary things i think he can do a lot with slack and will get the benefit down the road. You bought crm on the back of this deal . Yes, just tonight james i was an owner. I Love Companies that get bought i dont like this for salesforce slack puts them last in the Mega Communications slack does not have cash flow. Oracle and zoom and microsoft, those are strong existing partnerships it will be a tough market to crack. 27 billion. Survey teams say it is easier to use microsoft than companies that went to zoom. I dont like it for salesforce like it for slack though one biotech analyst says these are trading more like bitcoin and that biotech the one name he is calling out for ridiculous moves and later, fexed at a new all time high. That and more when fast money returns. harold twelve hundred strings of lights. betsy quarter mile of tinsel. harold and real snow all the way from switzerland. betsy hmmhm. Gonna be tough to top. Well played. vo add some thrill to your wish list. At the season of audi sales event. Get exceptional offers now. We are just getting news from cdc about who should get the vaccine first. Meg . This coming in in the last seconds or minutes it was voted 131 that the top group in prioritization for the vaccine should include Health Care Workers and residents of longterm care facilities. There are about 3 million in that group and in the Health Care Group there are 21 million and they are the front line of the pandemic since there will be such limited it vaccines to begin with, thats why they had to talk about it there should be 20 million doses available in the month of december so that wont completely carry that Health Care Group and longterm care facilities, so you will have to decide from that so that is the top of the list Health Care Workers and People Living in longterm care facilities 20 million, that means 20 million times two. So 20 million can receive the two fullshot dose of the vaccine and after it is allocated on the federal level, then is it you have to state to allocate to hospitals and Nursing Homes and from there to the sub group . The way it is allocated, is the number of people over age 18 they will divide it up and send the shipments that way to the states they will come out a few million at a time. The first of pfizer will be 6. 3 million doses. Then they make the priority where those vaccines go. We will hear more about that as the state gets their plans in order and we hear about this complicated way the vaccine makes its way out. Then the states can do what they want to do they dont have to follow these recommendations, but it is to give guidance. Meg, thankyou meg with that breaking news out of the cdc lets bring in our Health Care Strategist any surprises to how the cdc is saying to allocate it . I would think the devil is in the Details Behind this. Not surprised at all. We have been speaking for months about who would be first in line, so to speak to get these vaccines essential workers, Elderly Population meg mentioned the nursing home facilities getting the first shots sent by pfizer or moderna. I think that is in line with what we felt coming into this. Nothing ultimately that surprising i want to get into the trade behind one vaccine maker in particular the stock move yesterday was interesting. And talking about moderna that traded to a new high at 170, well above that and dipped lower midday do you know of any news that is behind this whatsoever the Company Seems to be releasing press releases on a daily basis so its difficult to ascertain what matters and doesnt. Just looking at the trading value over the past few weeks over prior months, we have seen it that seem to be buying either the stock outright, moderna shares outright orthes stocks we havent seen trades of these characteristics in such a long time makes me think of crypto currency and tesla i have been using that as a comparison as well just in that there being no framework, but the stocks being bid up every day probably some of the piers got too overheated too tough to call the ceiling. The ceiling doesnt seem to be that relevant daytoday, but these things are all trading premarket fairly aggressively and have been for the past few weeks. That tells me there is some trading activity that is a little bit abnormal. The proof of the vaccine is basically proof of the concept when we spoke on swap box the other day on this release of the second round, verification of that 94 number, he mentioned a vaccine for pregnant women to prevent birth defects and a better vaccine for flu isnt that a good thing . Does that give moderna a higher valuation because we know there is proof of concept now . Certainly the way the stock has performed on the back of the covid19 data is a clue that investors are willing to assign some sort of value. So therapeutic areas you mentioned are interesting. We can sort of debate how big those Market Opportunities are certainly the flu Vaccine Market is something and we discussed this last week where we are seeing pricing at 1. 50 per injection. So prices well south of the covid19 vaccine so the short answer would be, yes, it validates the platform the flipside would be how big are these markets. At one point today the stock this was the second largest u. S. Biotech company by market cap. Wow in some ways investors are already decided the value for the company is larger than just the covid19 vaccine we are going to leave it there. Always great to speak with you thank you. Thank you and this email came out that a total of 124 million shares of moderna changed hands today for a total val traded in a single session at 19 billion and that handily beats any stock traded within the past 15 years or so trading as a group, thats interesting because we have seen that time and again. It is clearly in my head because i was going to mention that the stock traded ten times normal volume. It traded up to 178. Kudos to karen because i think it was a couple weeks ago that the difference between pfizer and moderna that they were looking to do a capitalistic lens it was a 50 stock and tripled at the deep end of the pool. You talk about amgen has maybe 120 million cap the ibb is about to break out before 148 thats your bogey. And the one interesting to me is biogen look what that stock has done. 250 to 378, back to 250 on the downside of their alzheimers. I would rather be National Park biogen rather than moderna coming up, is there dividend danger we will tell you what we spotted today. But coming up next, a fast hitter telling us why she thinks this is a safe place to put your money. We will give you the name when fast money returns really . mom at t has the deal for new and existing customers i will. So whatd she say . Wrong person. Its a guy named carl. But hes very excited and on his way. Wordofmouth advertising. Its what they did before commercials. Its not complicated. Everyone gets our best deal, like the amazing iphone 12 mini on us. But before we sign i gotta ask. Sure, anything. We searched you online and maybe you can explain this . I cant believe that garbage is still coming in. That is so false frustrated with your Online Search results . Call reputation defende

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