Cloud business well dig in to those results. Thanks. Checking the markets right now the dow is up 136. The s p up 14. These are about a third of a percent. About half the gains we saw earlier on, while the nasdaq is hanging on to its rise, and its been leading the pack all day. As tyler mentioned, check out amazon up 10 , nearly 150 billion in market cap added after its Earnings Report last night its also boosting other cloud stocks like data dog and snowflake, which are among them. Apple falling after posting sales decline for the Third Straight quarter there you can see there is snowflake and data dog apple down 3. 5 . But lets get right to bob pisani with the question we posed off the top. Is this the perfect goldilocks jobs report . The important thing is nobody is that worried about apple down 3 its the jobs report bottom line is job growth is slowing down but not too much thats what kelly means with goldilocks it was afine needle to thread, but they really did it on this jobs report. 187,000 versus 200,000 expected. I want to show you the tenyear yield. Thats what everybody has been watching when it goes over 4 , the market flutters its happened several times this year it happened again this week. Its still over 4 , but the trend is moving down thats a good sign and markets are much more stable on that leadership this week, well, its been all over the place. Yes, amazon is the number one leader because of the big move up today on earnings but we had nice moves up in some of the industrial names caterpillar, parker hanson, all in the industrial groups, they had a good week. Clorox had a great Earnings Report that had a nice move up. If you had one great move up in a sector, it had to be energy this week. Oil at 83, were near the highest levels for oil since november the exploration of Oil Companies like apa have been on fire for the last month theres your big leadership group. Not so great in some subsectors of technology. Cybersecurity is not having a great day. They had rather poor outlook there, they said deals were being delayed until Macro Economic uncertainties, thats dragging down palo alto, crowdstrike, and other names in that space speaking of earnings, were almost done. 85 or so through the earnings season 84 reporting, 79 beating, a little higher than expected, than usual the average beat is almost 8 . Thats a little higher than expected but prices are high so its hard to move the companies forward, the prices, even on relatively good earnings news what you want to look for, nobody is worried about the Second Quarter third and fourth quarter, whats the trend . Are earnings estimates going up or down . Here, earnings estimates are going up remember, guys, this is the bottom of the Second Quarter its supposed to be the bottom for earnings theyre supposed to go up from here we want to see the trend moving up and you see here, analysts revise their numbers every week, all the time 63 in the last few weeks have been revising their estimates upward, 37 down the trend is up, and that is extremely supportive of the market that along with goldilocks and the soft landing, why the stock market continues to hold up so well bob, thank you very much. We have breaking news from jpmorgan and Steve Liesman has the story. Yeah, just got jpmorgans Weekly Economic report they are calling off their recession forecast for this year they are crediting the quicker than expected resolution of the debt ceiling, as well as less impact from bank credit tightening as a result of the feds program put in place theyre saying Recession Risk is still elevated for next year, but whats happened is, we reported on this monday, they had to boost their gdp forecast for the Third Quarter. They went up from a half a point to 2. 5 along with others. They said fed overtightening is the major risk to the economy. I want to show you what we reported on monday, just to remind you we came out with our cnbc rapid update showing a host of other folks had boosted that Third Quarter growth forecast from what was really an anemic forecast to one thats just around tend, just the way the quarter has begun, especially now you had the vehicle sales out, mark zandi is at 4 so there you go, guys. Its hard to have a recession when you have three quarters of the economy that is three separate quarteroffs the economy running around trend maybe next year, but jpmorgan, you remember earlier this week, bank of america also called off their recession call they have taken it off the table for this year but they say the risk is up for next year is there any color as to why i think its the effect of rising Interest Rates, and they also signal out the idea of the fed overtightening relative to the economy and the inflation. We shall see in the wake of todays jobs report, what that might mean for overtightening or undertightening or whatever they might do at the fed. Lets bring in karen kimbro, also with us is ron insana, also a cnbc contributor karen, why dont we pick up with where steve left off are you concerned about the fed overtightening particularly given what looks like a very sort of sweet employment report and cluster of Economic Conditions you know, theres no doubt that this was a good report overall. Of course, to answer your question, absolutely, theres been 500 plus base points of tightening thats a lot to digest for the economy, so like many economists, were expecting that soft patch to hit much later this year or earlier next year i think the risks are still there for the fed. As to whether or not they have done too much, but in the meantime, the labor market is very resilient, very strong from the way we look at it. Were seeing, you know, even a glimmer of hope in some sectors. Ron, where do you come down on this idea of a possible recession or maybe that a recession doesnt occur until next year if at all . And what are the implications then for stocks . Remember exactly a month ago on the last unemployment report, we talked about goldilocks, the fact the economy was still growing, jobs were being added at a reasonable pace, and Wage Inflation was coming down. The wageflation is growing most at the bottom 10 percentile. Right where you want it. Its growing faster than prices are. Thats also something you want this seems like a reasonable environment. There are risks, next year i should say, 1. 4 trillion in commercial Real Estate Debt will come due that could be problematic for some banks i think thats where the risks may come in. The fed overdoing it, as i expect it was steve kelly making that reference, pushing off to next year. That seems like a reasonable bet at this point, unless the fed were to do something more than a quarter point and shock the system were kind of moving along nicely karen, can you give us some granularity on the strongest and weakest parts of the labor market what are some indicators you look at . Absolutely. We spend a lot of time thinking about the rebalancing of the labor market thats an important question the more its out of whack, the more likely you get wage pressure the amount of jobs coming down in the sense of there are not as many open jobs available, thats come down by over 20 in the last year. At the same time, were seeing job seekers much more active theyre applying to more jobs when they show up. A 30 increase in the intensity of job seeking thats creating a Competitive Labor market, which means well probably get downward pressure on wages which is a good thing for the fed. At the same time, were looking at general labor market tightness and hiring trends. Theyre telling us overall, hiring is still coming down. People are still hiring at a slower pace than before. But there are pockets of hope. Believe it or not, the real estate sector, the construction sector, health care and hospitals, all these sectors are actually doing a little bit better than they were a few months ago so theres some stabilization and maybe even hope of improvement, you know, further down the line. Ron, equities have been moving up, chugging along all year, and certainly in the past three months, certainly in the month of july. Thats not to say there arent concerning signs out there inflation is still a little higher than people would like. Oil has gone up. There was a debt downgrade china is still an unknown. And certainly, there is a political season coming that is going to be, i would say, destabilized certainly emotionally its going to be a wild year. A wild year and two months what does that say about the market and its fragility im not sure the market is as fragile, certainly in august and september, you worry about market dips. We have been up a lot this year. As in any other move to the upside, a 10 correction is a possibility. With respect to inflation, when you look at readings, august is going to be a bad print because energy went up so much in the month of july. But i brought this up and i cant stand and institutions do it, but the new york fed has the pce measure. Its under 3 . Its 2. 94 as of two days ago. So the trend of inflation, of underlying inflation is receding i think faster than the fed would admit, which is why equity markets are doing better, why Interest Rates were contained until the debt downgrade, and china is exporting less inflationary pressures around the world than they would have otherwise. I think that accrues to that benefit of equities. Youre not going to duplicate what we saw in the first half of the year, and again, 10 correction given the concentration that we have seen, ten stocks account for 31 of the s p. A possibility or a probability a possibility given how much the equity markets have surprised us this year, you dont want to put too high a probability karen, quick final question to you what youd be watching . We talked about the general jobs report what you guys watching for signs there might be a sharper cooling in the labor market versus just kind of a persistent moderation . Yeah, the main thing that we have been looking at really is looking to see whether we can start to see a little hope, a little glimmer of recovery in some of the sectors hardest hit. Thinking about tech, retail which has been a bit sluggish in terms of hiring. Looking for some of these sectors to kind of come back, thats one thing the second is looking to see how broad based is that return of stock seekers to the market. Are they coming back its starting to broaden out all right, karen, thank you very much. Ron, great to see you. Lets go out to Rick Santelli in chicago. Rick, this morning we hit 4. 2 , and man, what a different picture it is now. Yes, remember, last several days i have been highlighting areas to Pay Attention to, and tens and 30s well get to that in a minute. What i would like to talk about is todays nonfarm payroll thats the lowest level of job creation since 2020. Lets think about what been in between there. We started out this year in january with 472,000 last february, we had 904,000. Job growth is slowing. What was the effect . Looking at a twoyear intradate, its dropped by a rock its been dropping like a rock or Holding Steady all week lets look at a oneweek chart were at 4. 80. Were down eight on the day and eight on the week. On a week where the long dated treasuries, look at the next chart, looks a bit different the last one was red this one is green. Because were still up on the week but we cut that in half. Right now, at 4. 06, were down a dozen on the day, up about a dozen on the week, but were up double that earlier. The markets have definitely moved lower. Is it because the report was that cold . It really wasnt that cold look at wages, whats going on with Labor Force Participation rate however, fear, many thought that after adp was stronger, they would see a stronger report than they did but heres the key this chart goes back to september. On october 24th, both 10s and 30s had their high yield close it was 4. 25 for 10, 4. 38 for 30. You remember what happened when we didnt close above 5. 07 in 2s when we had a chance they hit the stuffing out of the market this is a technical failure thus far, not the close above those levels if we close below 3. 85 before we close above 4. 25 in ten10s, it l be game, set, match in my opinion. Rick, have a great weekend. Thank you. Coming up, wall street had big worries about apple and amazon, but the reports are keeping the bears at bay well break it down in todays tech check plus, work from home in the Office Google offering an oncampus Hotel Special to lure workers back to the office those details when power lunch tus. Let Innovation Refunds help with your erc tax refund so you can improve your business however you see fit. Rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. Clink dr. Marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. Emily used part of her refund to buy. I run a wax museum. Let Innovation Refunds help you get started on your erc tax refund. Stop waiting. Go to innovationrefunds. Com you really got the brows. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Welcome back to power lunch, everybody. The nasdaq gaining a full percent, despite a drop in apple following its result reported yesterday. Reporting a drop in sales now for the third consecutive quarter. Lets bring in steve kovac for a look at whats happening at apple. Steve. Yeah, tyler, apple shares sagging even lower, after the Company Guided to another quarter of falling sales even though apple said to expect iphone and Services Revenue to grow more in the september quarter, it also said a steep drop in mac and ipad sales wont be enough to bring the company back to top line growth. That would mean a full fiscal year of downsales for apple. Now, i asked ceo tim cook yesterday about the demand picture for iphone since were expecting new model just next month. He told me, quote, if you look at the u. S. , the acceleration is good the accelraise we saw. Were glad that accelerated. But the smartphone industry is tough in the u. S. Right now. So even though Foreign Exchange rates are improving and services are growing again, hardware demand remains the biggest headwind for apple, going into the back half of the year. And speaking of services, thats the most promising piece of these results. Cook telling me advertising and spending in the app store is starting to return plus, apple has reached a billion subscriptions through the app store, and it gets a cut out of each of those subscriptions. And of course, we got to talk about ai, apple playing a different role there than what we would see out of microsoft and google and all those others. Cook telling me the new Iphone Software features coming this fall will leverage ai and it helps make new products like the apple vision pro, tyler. Very interesting. So ai, i mean, i guess im not surprised because apple is fundamentally an equipment, a gear company its not that its not a software company, but the others that are the big players in that area, like microsoft and google strike me more as a software company. Yeah, thats right. Thats been thething about apple all along, from its founding its been a hardware company, and you could easily argue its weakness has been on the software and Services Side but look, everything you do on an apple product is in some way kind of powered or informed by ai ill give you like a very good example of this, theyre going to have this new feature in the Iphone Software coming up where you can record snippets of your voice and then it can talk back in your full voice this is an accessibility feature but it is powered by a lot of the same or similar Ai Technology that we have been seeing from the other big tech peers. Steve, thank you very much. Steve kovac. The other big earnings out last night, of course, amazon. That stock absolutely jumping today. Deirdre bosa has more in tech check. I loved reading the trader notes on this because they were like, cloud has bottomed and margins, wow, there was just and then they said, hey, this is now as tradeable as meta and some of the other former faang components you know, kelly, that hits the nail on the head this is amazons time to shine i want to show you where were coming from. Take a look at the last one year of the mega caps you will see that amazon has been a serial underperformer go back even further than that five years and amazon is that white line, it has underperformed because it has put so much money into doubling its network capacity, its logistics footprint. That has really hurt profitability over the last years but this quarter, everything came together efficiency is now delivering faster than ever and to boot, aws growth rate has stabilized, which is what interesters really wanted to hear the core ecommerce more efficient, the profit machine, aws, stabilizing so kind of a perfect storm its why youre seeing share gain so much, and its not surprising that maybe youre seeing wall street analysts ask, is this going to be the outperformer over the next few months because it has a lot of ground over the last year, and five years. So kelly, a lot to pick through there, too advertising, 10 billion, that continues to be a much smaller but another high margin, high Growth Business for the company on top of aws. To me, i dont want to say flipside, but i was looking at open door. A tough day for the stock which is only a couple dollar stock at this point whats going on there . So open door was a huge pandemic winner, as most of our audience knows, the stock once traded at nearly 40 a share even with