Well discuss that story in just a moment kelly . But, first, lets get a check on the markets and the etf has been focused as the smh has its worst week of the year the smh hit a new 52woke high barely a month ago, and its down 5 this week. Marvel, micron and and mv the laggards some talk on the street around archer aviation, down 3 after soaring as much as 23 after settling a lawsuit with boeing over autonomous flying dispute its actually down 6 now, a volatile response. The quantum computing hardware foam up about 12 , reporting a larger than expected loss but raising its guidance. We begin with a slew of big deals, tapestry acquiring capri for nearly 9 billion, espn striking a 2 billion deal with penn gaming and campbells buying sovos for a little over 2 billion thats a lot of sauce. Dealmaking seemingly hot again and the same could be said for the ipo market according to the wall street journal the nasdaq and nyse are battling it out for prime listings dan, let me begin with you our deals back, or are these sorts of moments of opportunity as seen by the acquirers and sellers . I think its more moments of opportunity. You happen to have a bunch of them this week which is really typical since that weve in the dog days of summer dealmaking in the u. S. Was down 30 from last year and last year was rough to start with. The owner sovos is based in the town that i live. It is. I didnt even know this i had no idea. Anyway, mike, let me ask you this as you look at there are we looking at a situation where deals are actually back or not what do you see . I think the atmospheric conditions are getting friendlier for deals if you go down the check list meaning markets are stabilized in the last ten months. Valuations are up to a level, you know, where maybe a seller would be interested or a buyer might have decent currency to use. Credit markets seem like they are willing to they were making deals. Interest rates were a lot higher. They were. Years ago you could do a deal for 0 . Right. Now you cant. Exactly. So you have to pick and choose i would also add that a private equity deal for smithsimon sr ceo confidence is not really back its up off the lows, but its well below if you look at the Conference Board surveys where you typically see it where things are really humming on the m a side. Was there a big breakthrough for you on the tap try capri deal i think, again, i do think these are oneoff. In that particular off you saw a deconglomeratization and now were sliding back the other direction. The direction for tapestry, theres a huge loan on this which michael suggests that the credit markets are back which is good and, on the other hand, there is a lot of debt on this deal, the largest bridge loan ever so you could see them do accusations on orphan brands Going Forward. We did get the espn news, more on the Sports Betting direction and disney, of course, the subject of much scrutiny do you think the next three to five years sounds like could bring a lot of activity across the media space. Across the media space, yeah, and even in the Sports Betting space. I think, you know, espn took a very long time to get here when Sports Betting became legalized everyone assumed espn from a brand perspective would be one of the first into the pool espn it took them so long because disney didnt want to be associated with gambling now its going in. Its going in the penn with a less than 5 market share. Pretty good in terms of where stocks are going revenues and even profitability. Youll probably seek consolidation the next couple of years there because in addition to the mgms and espn, fanatics are moving into that. As you look at that particular deal, you know who the big dog is here, its espn, not penn gaming. Had they merged this is not a merger, i should be clear. Had they done a deal with some other provider whether its draftkings or fan duel or whatever might have changed the scale a little bit heres my question which i asked. I think its Barton Crockett the other day. Does this fact that espn is now going into a partnership with penn gaming make it more likely that that espn is spun off from disney . I think i think its consistent with the possibility that it can be a separate entity i dont know that it is decisively going in that direction or not but the idea that espn is looking for other sources of revenue i mean, clearly Everything Everything goes down and the the cable fees go down, youve got to find a place for the revenue. Gaming is an obvious example. Exactly. People clearly are willing to pay for i think its more in the matter of everything disney is talking about doing, partners with the sleeping to bring some cash in, reduce the capital burden on disney which, of course, is going to she will have to shell out for sports rights and maybe have that Business Model get a little bit rightsized for what it could be in the future. Penn stock, by the way, punished, you know, on the news so it tells you which way the economics of it ran and thats another factor and are ceos going to want to do a deal look at how the stock reacted . Yeah, they made us a good offer. They are paying over 1. 5 billion. Ipos, sounds like we might be getting some in september. Birkenstock. Listen, the fact there was an article this career that says nicea and the nasdaq were battling for listings, that has to be a good sign. For birkenstocks . Its a sign and a sign that bankers are talking this up. Ive been writing and i keep believing that the ipo market will come back after labor day you see the huge success of kava, youve got birkenstock and arm and a couple of them will go now were the 10th, 11th of august, im surprised we havent seen more s1s because it does take six weeks to get this together because if you want to go the middle of september when everybody is back from vacation we should seat s1s coming out. I love it birkenstocks and jimmy choo the same week. Its like barbie barbenheimer. Thank you both very much. We should point out theres a cnbc special tonight called taking stock. Santoli will be there, josh brown will be there, and they will wrap up the week starting at 6 00 p. M. Eastern that is this evening. And dealmaking is definitely a key issue in the markets this week as was earnings a bunch of retail names are now on deck as we turn our attention to next week and Economic Data were talking inflation after the ppi today. Here to discuss is jim tierny, Alliance Bernstein chief Investment Officer jim, welcome inflation was going away and today its back. I think well have bumps along the way. Its not all one direction certainly labor continues to be stick, and thats the Biggest Issue that we have to Pay Attention to over the next few months. Or oil prize. I dont know how you feel about investing in the energy space right now but that also appears to be maybe a little bit higher from here. Certainly you look at oil which was in the 70 range and now its above 80 and were certainly seeing that at the pump. The bigger question relative to consumers earnings is does that pinch pocketbooks Going Forward into fall, particularly with the Student Loan Repayments coming in early october. Do you think thats a big factor, the Student Loan Repayment . It will take some of the liquidity that might otherwise go into the consumer economy and redirect it into debt repayment, but how big is it . I see numbers all over the place. Ive seen anywhere from 25 million to 40 Million People with Student Loans and Monthly Payments on average anywhere from 200 to 400. So i think its on the margin of hurt. One of the big themes for you this earnings season has been separating the i got this wrong the other day, the strong from the weak, shall we. This hasnt been a story about tech industries. One doing well, another one not. Talk about the paired trades. During covid Many Companies saw the same impact on their industry or on their business, so a lot of Companies Went up and went down all together now that things are normalizing, particularly supply chains, were starting to see companies in the exact same industry one do really well and one not do quite as well, and thats being reflected in the market which as an active stock picker thats really exciting. Why is active one that youre excited about . Were all talking about the upcoming strike, it could affect gm and ford and how is it affecting active why is it bullish on your name when we look at aptiv, thats a huge upsell or tradeup i dont know whether its going to win whether its tesla or audi or someone else, but i do know there will be a heck of a lot more vehicles on the road five and ten years from now, and thats a huge benefit to aptiv we think this is a very good story here. Lets talk about one of the other choices, one is mastercard and another is schwab. Talk us through those two. Sure, when i look at a lot of data points it looks like u. S. Travel is starting to slow down. We certainly saw that in disneys earnings where their Hotel Occupancy went from 90 last year to 84 this year on the domestic parts, but guess what was booming international. Where does mastercard make a whole lot of money, they make a lot of money on crossborder travel so as that continues to pick up, particularly in asia, i think theres further potential for mastercard to grow their earnings at the rates that the street expects in terms of skwhauchwab, its ae that ive talked about before, the big bogey was cashsorting and getting behind the company they got that and they were able to pay down the flab borrowings meaning you go from a negative interest spread to a positive one, and that will really help earnings getting into the second half of next year and particularly 2024, and i dont think thats appreciate the at 65 a share. Jim tierny, thanks very much, Alliance Bernstein cio, thank you. Coming up, the devastating fires in hawaii raising concerns about the growing impact of Climate Change so what solutions could Technology Offer in our fight against Natural Disaster well discuss that one next. Plus, the final dave our backtoSchool Series. 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[ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Welcome back dozen of lives lost. Hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars of damage in the ongoing fires in maui. As we consider the disaster, some questions emerge, so what impact could we see on hawaii . Natural disasters, will they continue to worsen and are there solutions . Perhaps ones involving Artificial Technology or technology Contessa Brewer joins us whats the latest . The death toll is continuing to rise at 55. The continuing problem is the west side of maui is still inaccessible home depot says its maui store is helping to source supplies so they need coolers, ice, water, tents. The tents could be crucial as shelter because hotels are at capacity or closed for instance, marriott told us three of its hotels in the area affect on west maui have closed because of Power Outages and guests have left, a westin, a sheraton and a rites carlton, and and that western area of maui meanwhile the whos who of maui are working to respond personally Nick Fleetwood owns a destination restaurant in lahaina, he says his very first concern was his team. They are still searching for people it became very apparent to me in running this restaurant which, of course, is destroyed, like every other business in that town, so i became aware, we became aware that over 80 people who work with us for about two days, we didnt actually have everyone accounted for. Nick told me late last night his team has been accounted for. Oprah winfrey on maui, went to a costco and walmart to buy supplies for a shelter there Lauren Sanchez says she hand fiance jeff bezos are donating money. The need here is going to be enormous Guy Carpenter estimates that 2,700 structures are in that lahaina fire zone alone, and accuweather puts the total Economic Impact and damage estimate at between 8 billion and 10 billion. It may be a couple weeks here, kelly, tyler, before we get some insured loss estimates, but state farm is the biggest property insurer on the island they say they are working on it right now. They are trying to get in there and process claims. Already had high catastrophe losses, a lot of the insurers. Joining us now is patrick brown, codirector of the climate and energy team at the Breakthrough Institute patrick, you guys work on a lot of Technological Solutions to these climate challenges, but i dont know if there was an answer here in hawaii. Yeah. One of the things that we look at is using ai to try to better predict wildfire danger, and so we think this thats something that could help, you know, if you can know ahead of time where the danger is going to be, that that could potentially shut out the power lines and do these types of mitigation efforts and reduce ignitions at least in this case so thats something that were looking nat california, but maybe something thats taken on board more in hawaii as well. Sure. California, areas that are prone to them, you can absolutely imagine how to use ai or any kind of technology to get ahead of the problem would be helpful. These wildfires seems to come out of nowhere. Well, you know, the more that we build in areas that are increasingly prone to wildfires which is more of the land surface over the globe because i think as it gets warmer most of the land surface tends to get dryer, and so that means that youre going to have more people in harms way of wildfires when they do occur, and in this case in hawaii, theres also this issue of nonnative grasses and shrubs that are in that region that have very quickly dried out when we had this heat wave and lack of precipitation in that area over the recent weeks and months so that made it so it was a situation that once the fire started, probably human caused, of course, that it was very difficult to contain and it was a bad situation with very large tradewinds associated with hurricane dore, and everything came together to produce, you know, an incredibly devastating situation. Do we know what the origin of this fire or these fires was i dont believe we do at this point. But most fires are caused by human error of one sort or another, correct thats right, thats right, and so that can be good news, right, because that means that we have control over that, and so efforts to reduce human ignitions, either just through, you know, awareness of reducing accidental ignitions, things as simple as putting out camp fires, that type of thing, that can actually have a real impact on total wildfires. So if you if i were to ask you where where does Climate Change fit in the causation of this fire or the severity of these fires, where would you place it in other words, was it a contributing factor . What is it responsible for it . Talk me through that. Yeah, so i guess i would zoom out a little bit and not focus specifically on this fire because various factors can counteract Climate Change in specific regions, but the u. S. West in general, weve seen this large increase in an area burned over the past several decades and climate is definitely a contributing fact tor that we call the shorthand fire weather, we say its hot, dry and wind, and and Climate Change, increasing Greenhouse Gas concentration increase the temperatures so thats the hot part, and they actually tend hot and dry kind of go together in the u. S. West as it gets hotter, the land surface gets drier and it dries out vegetation and makes fuels burn more easily so we dont feel windy component change really from Climate Change thats a pretty weak signal, if it exists at all, but as it gets warmer it gets drier so thats the thats the pathway by which increased Greenhouse Gases increase fire proclivity, but other major factor is the illadvised policies that weve had since the early 20th century to immediately put out all fires, and so what that has done is its cause there had to be a large increase in vegetation, unnatural amount of vegetation in a lot of our forests in the u. S. West and grass and shrublands so that with me have a lot more drier situation with a lot more fuels and when a fire does occur its much more severe and difficult to fight than it would otherwise. Thats fascinating and counterintuitive i never would have thought about that on a different sort of weather and climate topic, were hearing predictions of hurri