Im Andrew Ross Sorkin. You cant wear white pants. Im Andrew Ross Sorkin with joe kernen and mike santoli is here hanging out for becky who is still off today. Lets show you u. S. Equities at this hour. We have a little bit going on. Not too much just yet. The dow off 27 points. Nasdaq opening down 58 points. S p is off 9 points. Treasury yields with the 10year treasury is sitting at 4. 224. The 2year treasury at 4. 910. Have you noticed we flipped that board around, joe . The oil prices . No. The treasury board. That board, we used to run the 30year treasury. The 30year at the top and 2year at the bottom because the way the world used to work. Now the world is flipped upside down and here we are. That is a good metaphor. Mirror what is happening. You remember, andrew, years ago where were you on the show or before when greenspan said it. Its back. Combine the 2year. The 30year used to be the one to watch. Exactly. We should have done 100 about a year and a half ago. Would that have worked . It would have worked, but the treasury cannot issue that much at the low maturities. The market cannot accept that. Is it really moving the needle . They listened to the dealers and they have been skewing to the shortened. I would be interested because it would show how optimistic your chances. If you buy a 100year bond i may get out early. P if not youll be there . And the country is going to be here. Optimistic on both ends. And humankind might be there. With north korea and russia cozy. You want stuff to worry about . Genuinely. You may not need that ev. Goldman sachs is saying worry less about the u. S. Economic recession. Now a 15 chance that the u. S. Will slide into recession down from the previous chance of 20 . The chief economist jan hatzius says the hurdle for the november hike is significant. Real disposable income is looking to accelerate on job growth and rising real wages. Growing drag from Monetary Policy will push the economy toward recession. This comes after a jobs report on friday which was light on the hea headline number. An uptick in the Unemployment Rate. Higher labor force at healthy levels. We can actually poke fun at the excessive precision. Contra indicator . We did poke fun at it. These guys all do models. Instead of taking the 5 less, does that mean anything . It is what is causing him to make that call. We make fun of analysts when they say im lowering or raising my price target from 180 to 1831 183. 50. They plug some number. Here is my model. They plug it in. They tell us. We should emphasize goldman has been correct to this point. They are not expecting recession. The soft landing which seemed like a long shot six months ago is likely now. Unemployment lows are not high enough to where you are worried about it. It is not enough time for rece recession. I think jan would point out in a random year in history, the chance of recession is 25 . He is more or less saying it is less likely than typical. You could get a shock. What bothers me about jan is he is not a morning person which irritates me. He comes on at 10 00 a. M. All the time. Thats my point, santoli. He is not on this show. We would like him to be on the show. Im trying to poach guests live. Jan. The world is moving. The money never sleeps. Where are you . Where are you . Lets get going here. Is that a good pitch . Can i get him on . Well talk more at 8 30 a. M. With Christopher Waller. Hes a morning guy. He will join us in a cnbc exclusive. Lets talk about moelon mus. He is threatening to sue the antidefinition league. He is accusing it and me of being antisemitic. If this continues, we will file an antidefamation suit against the antidefamation league. Musk noted that xs advertising revenue is down 60 in the united states. Alleging the pressure from the adl is part of the decision. Adl said it is a matter of policy and does not comment on legal threats. It referred nbc news to the statement in response to the ban the adl campaign taking place on x. It is such an insidious effort which doesnt daunt us. It drives us to be unflinching in our commitment to fight hate. We had mr. Greenblatt on the program many times. I thought they were having more of a meaningful engagement prior to this. No doubt if you recall Jonathan Hernandez has been on. There were times in the past at how somewhat positive he was about what elon had said he was willing to do on twitter. It made jonathan feel better about his concerns for what the problems were. He said i talked to elon and felt better. Now i guess that is off. It does set up. We have jonathan on. Sometimes we set up an opposing viewpoint. That is a hell of a debate right there. If jonathan will come. You are booking guests live on air this morning. You know what im thinking . Dont you follow elon . Does he follow you . Can you not dm him . I do not think he and jonathan i dont think. How do you know if you dont ask. Thats true. You can do it on the qt. Now it is on television, sure. He might come on. He may need an mri. It is hard to know before he does. All right. Coming up, we talk Market Strategy for the short week. Stephanie link joins us after the break. And Jared Bernstein will speak with us ahead of the president s trip to the g20. You are watching squawk box on cnbc. Announcer this cnbc program is sponsored by ibm. Ibm. Lets create. He right ai for. Introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. When you watsonx your business, you can train, tune and deploy ai, all with your trusted data. Lets create the right ai for your business. With watsonx. Ibm. Lets create. sfx people cheering sfx Stock Exchange bell ringing sfx people celebrating sfx people celebrating sfx Stock Exchange bell ringing wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. sfx its to die for. Ing and its all right here. Streaming was never this easy, you know. This is the way. You really went all out didnt you . Um, its called commitment. Could you turn down the volume . Here, you can try. Get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. The august slump is over, but september is the worst month for stocks. Gives us her strategy is stephanie link. Steph, good morning. Good morning, mike. You know, i know you dont manage money by the calendar. We have to be aware of the tendencies of september which is the worst month historically. You see the market up 10 plus into september, september is not as scary based on past patterns. Be that as it may, how do you think the market is set up here . We were up 2. 5 in the s p last week and down 2 for the full month of august. I would not be surprised if september is volatility. It usually is. The economy is stronger than expected. Earnings are troughing and the market broadening out is healthy. I would use the volatility, mike, to pick up stocks and sectors that are not technology to diversify my portfolio. Actually, interesting that during the course of the third quarter, the first two months of the quarter, we have seen consensus estimates go up for a while. That is a positive sign. During the pullback in august, as you know, steph, the cyclical parts of the market did not buckle. They out performed defensive. I know you were tilting in that direction already. Energy and industrials. Do they still seem like the place you want to concentrate . I think so. Thats where im overweight. I have been overweight all year long. I have been adding to energy. A couple of weeks ago, i added to chevron which is down 12 and still down 12 on the year. It trades 12 times earnings and gives you a 4 yield. There are opportunities although energy had a nice run, there are opportunities there. Anything tied on the industrial side and aviation is on fire and obviously onshoring is a theme as well. Boeing and ge on the aviation side and Free Cash Flow generation. Ingersoll as well. You can put money to work, mike, those are the areas i would be buying. Overnight, we got weak economic numbers from europe. Purchasing Managers Index r revised lower. Seems a bit of a struggle in terms of getting inflation going higher. People are worried about the Chinese Companies as well. Does that come together to give you pause about earnings power in the companies which are exposed . Certainly europe with the growth there being sluggish. I think china will continue to stimulate there. I think on the consumer side within china is where i have exposure. You have the pentup demand for being closed for three years and the reopening theme which hasnt played out much yet. We are hearing from companies, consumer companies, with exposure to the consumer in china which is starting to do well. Thats the area where i want to be exposed. You want to look at estee lauder down this year. You want to see companies with exposure. You have to be patient. It is taking longer to see the recovery. For sure. We were talking about the jobs number on friday which seemed like a goldilocks reading on the economy. On the other hand, you hear people say on the way to the economic downturn, it looks like a soft landing. You start to decelerate. You dont know the pace. What are you watching on that score . For sure, you are seeing an an easing a bit in the job market last week with the j nonfarm payroll and the jolts. I look at the leading indicator with the moving average of 237,000. Recessionary times and that number is 350 to 375. We are well off in terms of recession. I think at the same time, unfortunately, inflation is persistent. Fed will keep doing their thing. Higher rates for longer. We have been able to see some sustainable recovery in the economy. Look at the atlanta fed gdp now at 5. 6 growth. We have a lot of underlining momentum in the economy. Watching jobs is the most important thing. Watching inflation. We have been able to handle it so far, mike. Those weekly claims, as you mentioned, is pretty good realtime sign of that. Steph, thanks. Coming up, we will talk about the return to Office Policy for several Major Companies. It is kicking off today. Folks are headed back to the office. This is a tuesday. You think threeday week at least. We will talk about Office Mandates and debate about them after the break. At 8 30, dont miss the veorusive interview with fed gorn chris waller and where the fed is headed next. Squawk box is coming right back. This is dr. Arnold t. Petsworth, hes the owner of petsworth vetworld. Business was steady, but then an influx of new fourlegged friends changed everything. Dr. Petsworth welcomed these new patients. The only problem . More appointments meant he needed more space. Thats when dr. 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Her baking superpowers have brought sweetness to our community. I make delicious cakes to make special occasions even better. Maria doesnt just bake; she also creates opportunities. Small businesses like marias, open doors for communities to thrive. Support your community. Support Small Business. Welcome back to squawk box. Summer is officially over and millions of employees are facing back to work at meta and blackrock and zoom today. Joining us is jason greir of greir consulting. The work from home experiment, i think, is officially over. Are we from agreement . It seems like things are changing. We talked about this a week ago. Im tell you my position on this hasnt changed. I had a bunch of employers saying they love the fact that employees are coming back to the office. Employees are saying we hate coming back to the office. We have to analyze the world of work. Who is to say any of it will with work in the long term . We dont know. What do you think will work in the long term . I think based on the conservation we had, you think you have to be in the office and there is no other way around it . I dont think there is one size fits all. For certain industries, there is an industry that works well with hybrid or remote work. There are other industries and Goldman Sachs and if they say you have to be in the office for five days a week, you are in the office five days a week or take your talents elsewhere. If you are pushing employes coto come back to the office, you have to come back to other needs. Who got to you . Is this this is a change for you. Who got to you . Did you get twitter hate . What happened . You are asking better questions. I thought you were strident for the need for people back in the office for a myriad of reasons. I moved the other way. If you are doing something sitting at a screen, it is nice to be mentored. If you dont need to get child care or an hour to get to work or something, i can see how it makes sense in certain businesses. Sure. Here is what i think it comes down to is this, if your employer mandates you are in office five days a week, that is the employer mandate. You come in the office. If you feel that doesnt fit for you or your lifestyle, in terms of what has been created in past two or three years, you take your talents else wwhere. It comes down to the employer mandate. If the employer says are you in the office, you are in the office. If not, you do elsewhere. The question i have is do you think there is a turn . We see the banks saying five days a week, minimum. That means six days a week for a lot of folks. Do you think that will actually switch . I think so. The ceo of one of the big banks says, i could see this working out three or four days a week. Im not sure. I think that for some of the banks, if they say you have to be in the office five or six days a week, that is the core issue for them. At the same time, were living in a day and age where we see the union side and nonunion side where we see employees are looking at strikes and employees are actively stating what they want from employers. That cuts from white collar and blue collar workerworkers. We want a better work life condition. It comes down to if the employer makes the mandate and the employee balks and takes talents elsewhere, maybe they need to take a step back. We still need employes to work to drive productivity and drive products and goods and services. Different question. Maybe a real estate question. Five years out from now, you look at most of the big white collar serviceoriented institutions, do you think they have a bigger real estate footprint or smaller real estate footprint . Based on the number of card swipes across the country, they will have a smaller footprint. That is another thing to talk about. The mandate to get employers getting employees back to work is the huge real estate buildings and they need to fill it in addition to the overall commerce from the community in terms of your coffee shops and restaurants which are dependent on the kpcommuters. The real estate footprint will be smaller because employers cannot afford it. Were seeing that story playing out everywhere. Jason, nice to see you. Thank you. Who knows what ill say next time . Coming up, the senate back in session today. We will talk about the legislative agenda right after the brk. Ea as if squawk box will be right back. Announcer executive edge is sponsored by at t business. Next level moments need the next level network. Copy that. Make a hard left down the alley. Networks got you covered. [please confirm requesting backup. ] changing route. Go. Roadblock ahead. Back up, back up. Reverse reverse next level moments, were 30 seconds out. Need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry ] coming through or 3, lets go. The network more businesses choose. Transplant received. At t business. vo while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a Childrens Hospital d. Your life is just as unique. Your Raymond JamesFinancial Advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. So you can live your life. Thats life well planned. Good morning. Welcome back to squawk box live at the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Take a look the futures. Looking to open in the red. Nasdaq off 41 points. The senate is back in session later today. Joining us on the agenda for september is emily wilkins. She joins us from washington. I guess there is an agenda. Will you come back in the future and talk about things that actually happened, emily . I dont know. Im not optimistic. Are you . Reporter i think when you take a look at everything they have to do, there are some things that Congress Absolutely has to get done. It is hard deadlines for programs with a lot of impact. There is a chance to get some of this done. If you look at the agenda, they have until september 30th to renew or extend half a dozen major programs and bills that will otherwise expire. This includes government funding. Both Chuck Schumer and Kevin Mccarthy said they want to extend funding to later in the year to giveissues. A group of hard line republicans are vowing to oppose unless it gives you lower spending. Bill hoagland with the Bipartisan Center said mccarthy will need to partner with the democrats to get the government funded. That sets up for a difficult set of negotiations. I dont want to get into the politics too far, but i have to think this becomes a question of whether or not Speaker Mccarthy is willing to trade off a continued resolution for a potential motion to vacate his seat. Reporter government funding is not the onl