Transcripts For CNBC Mad 20240703 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad July 3, 2024

Downright unnerving. Were now looking at the other side of what the feds been doing to stamp out inflation, and its a big reason why the dow lost 199 points. The s p shed and the nasdaq 1. 06 . Were going have to learn with not a collapse in commerce, but definitely a slowdown. Along with the decline in profitability that always comes at this particular point in the business cycle. Each day we see more of these cracks. Extremely disappointing numbers from southwest airlines, luv. But there was no love. The airlines margins are being pressured by higher gasoline prices. Its not 250 to 260. Its budget is 270 to 280 ewhich is a huge difference. Southwests revenue per available seat mile, is down rather dramatically. Were looking at a 5 to 7 decline when the company said it would be down just 3 to 7 . That is jarring. It looks like business is finally getting hurt by the sudden rise in oil. Its up in a straight line. And you cant ignore the fact that southwest revenue per available seat mile is coming down, and coming down hard. Thats a sign that the travel and leisure boom might be coming to an end. We dont want that were a service economy. Its not our industrial might thats going to keep things going. Its stuff like travel and leisure fueling everything half. If we lose it . We got some news from General Mills that pet owners are becoming cautious. Their Economic Outlook is dimming and theyre shifting towards more valueoriented products for their pets. Not necessarily the forte of blue buffalo Premium Products that we use for our dogs reegan and tony. Ive always felt pet food was one of the more fungible items out there. And it can easily become a slippery slope. When things are flying high, your filled with pet food looks like green giant and hebrew national. Now the pets are getting the cans. They can tell the ifference. Theyre always hungry any way. Whats the deal . New and improved. More cracks appeared last week when we got the usually reliable dollar general, they had way too much inventory. They missed the quarter badly. Perhaps because their bargain sizes arent as attractive as the deals you can get from costco, where the premium brand is the house brand kirkland, and business remains very strong. By the way, the fact that the stock of costco is breaking out here is actually a bad sign for the stock market as people know that you save a lot more at costco and therefore your dollars go further. We see cracks another one that is just like costco. We got two price target boosts save for the price of tjx, tj maxx and marshals. A company that only does this well when so many other merchants are struggling. Tjx buys the unwanted inventory of brick and mortar retailers for next to nothing and flips to you the consumer with a nice markup. It can be a vicious pile for the rest of the market. Once you get tjx, youre not going back to the full price. Not me. I got one right next door, and i love it. And we saw some big cracks at walgreens last week when the ceo left. Rarely a good sign. You dont leave when things are on track. Plus, drug stores like walgreens has become monstrous. Its now considered the cost of doing business. They now need to lock everything by lock and key. You see it behind the glass. What is that . We dont have time for the clerk to come over with the key. I always feel bad about it any way. And the only thing that seems locked is the name brand, not the house brand. Thats how it works in kiosks and aisles in my rite aid. Why not just buy everything from amazon which made same day delivery. You buy in the morning. Its at your doorstep when you get home. Kind of like walgreens except for faster. And by the way, no one is stealing it. We see cracks in the Banking System too. No, not on the credit side, but the lining side. The capital used to fight the last war which is what Silicon Valley bank mean. How stupid. That wasnt a capital issue, regulators. It was an Investment Decision issue. But the regulators dont want to embarrass themselves again. So they decided to ram the profitability of the banks so means less credit for you, never mind the horse already left the barn. Up 2. 6 last week. No doubt because the longterm rates are flying higher. With the possibility of mortgage money coming in around 9 . Two years ago, my mortgage was 3. 35 . Im not going to go anywhere. Neither are all the other people. My mortgage vintage. Housing seems to be slowing down. Prices have been in the thorn of the side of everyone, especially the federal reserve. But pulling out with higher rates instead of more supply of houses hurts like the dick kenens. He can only drive down prices by making it more expensive to borrow. Not a great way to solve the problem. Well see cracks in autos. The car companies, tesla, are facing what couldbe major strike. The unions have a strike fund which is a heck of a lot shorter. But the Oil Companies have been pumping out as much products as possible in case we do have a strike, which means theyre going to get hurt either way. If there is a strike, the production comes to a halt, they dont have enough vehicles to sell. If there is no strength, theyll have way too much inventory they built, and youll see a lot of car ads on television during football season than you can recall. Probably get some good deals too. We are in a lull for earnings. But during this period, weve seen a rise in the dollar. That take away one of the biggest props from last quarter. Most are companies that operate overseas benefit from weaker currency. Three months ago they had that. Now its going to the wrong direction. New crack we didnt expect. And what is the government doing about it . Nothing. The federal trade commission stepping up and going after amazon for some of its practices that are allegedly hurting merchants. Lets say thats even true. I know there are good reasons to protect merchants. But right now amazon is one of the few institutions that is actively lowering prices for you. Only costco has done more. And now ftc is going after them. Thanks for nothing. Even if the fdic has good reason, couldnt they wait until after we got in hand . The last thing we need is the government working to push up prices. Thank you so much, the head of the fdic. Now lets take a step back for a second. Remember, september tends to be a terrible month. In part because many big funds have large gains. Decembers close enough to tend of the year that a lot of the managers will just take profits and go on vacation. Or a semi vacation thanks to the september environment, all news gets magnified. Particularly the bad news. We heard the Chinese Government might be saying to their employees they cant bring their iphones to work. What does that mean for an amazing market for apple . Shoot first and ask questions later. Thats what it means. Governments are angry at making caps. Dont debate it. Bottom line, the real crack we saw today and what we saw yesterday is why i hate september. Too much goes wrong. Hence why the mortgage is down for the month. The good news, maybe well start running out of downside soon assuming the cracks in this market dont keep getting bigger. I want to go the kevin in georgia. Kevin . Caller mr. Cramer. Kevin, how are you . Caller thanks for taking my call. How you . Im thrilled that you called in. Whats going on . Caller thank you again for all that you do. Thank you. Caller this stock is the goto name when it comes to backup power associates. And its been mentioned on the show any time. But even michael berrys fund make an investment in the latest filing. After bottoming out at the end of 2022, the stock has showned signs of life but then got smacked back down after the recent quarterly earning. In light of its bad earnings and Hurricane Season and unreliable electric grid, what are your recent thoughts on Generac Holdings . I like generac. I feel the same way for some of the solar plays, you need credit in order to be able to buy these big things. And thats whats causing problems. Because the price of credit what v gone up. People dont think of that, but thats what is driving down. Lets go to dennis in my home state of new jersey. Dennis . Caller booyah from bedminster, journalism. How are you doing . Oh, come on. Youre right around the corner from me. Good to have you on the show. Whats going on . Caller first, i have to give a shout out to my beautiful wife of 25 years married. Well done. Caller thank you. And the stock i want to ask you about has a p e of about 15, even throws off the dividend of about 2 . It makes chips for many companies, including nvidia, and my average cost is 98. Should i buy more, sell or hold Taiwan Semiconductors . Its a great question. Its the kind of question we answer all the time for the investing club, which is that youre buying it too close to the last purchase. When youre trying to kind of average in like this, you dont want to just do it down six. We like to think down 10 is the first level you should buy. So therefore you know you have a few more points before i would put in the buy, buy, buy not yet. Even though i like the company very much. Were already down about as much as we normally are for the entire month of september. So maybe well start running out of downside soon, assuming the cracks in this market dont get deeper, although i have to tell you, i think they probably will. On mad money tonight, our team is holding our annual fantasy football draft later tonight, and while im not quite ready to pronounce who is my top pick, ill share which stocks i think and which positions and who i think you should be drafting for your stock portfolio. And crowd strength defended itself against bears after the meeting. What drove the sf . E how will it impact your portfolio negatively . Ill discuss it. So stay with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to mad money at madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. With powerful, easytouse tools, power e trade makes complex trading easier. React to fastmoving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you wont miss an opportunity. E trade from Morgan Stanley. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking so you wont miss is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. I may be known for my legendary football career, but truth is, i love a bunch of sports. The only trouble is knowing where to find them. Thats why i got xfinity. So, i can easily find and watch whatever sport im into all in one place without missing a thing. Even if its football, australian football, or football football. In a word its fitzcredible. I got to trademark that one. This season, eligible xfinity rewards members can get up to 100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube. Sign up for xfinity rewards now. Heres why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a builtn engine like google, but its pi and doesnt spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. And theres no catch. Its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. Tomorrow night at long last, regular season nfl football returns with a Kansas City Chiefs take on the detroit lions. Where . 8 20 p. M. Right here on nbc. And that means if youre one of 55 million plus americans who play fantasy football, youre probably about to hold your draft if you havent done it already. Were doing ours tonight for the not your average yes, thats the name of our actual league. I am the reigning champ. I dont know if i can double. Every year i like to use this moment to run a fantasy stock football series, giving you my favorite fantasy picks. Yes, i do a lot of entertaining. I think its a great the learn about investing. Just as positions play different roles, different types of stocks can play different roles for your portfolio. Youre not going to well longterm if you make a Portfolio Five stocks that are all Wide Receivers. You get every year like 2022, and everything you own is going to collapse. So let me take you through our fantasy on mad money. Were going start with the quarterback. You want a quarterback with a combination of production and consistency. Because most leagues only give you one quarterback spot, you need one that gives you a solid baseline of points week in and week out. Thats why for the past three years, ive called upon apple. Yes, my original own it dont trade it stock. The quarterback position for your portfolio. Apple is up 228 over the past five years. 51 over the past three years, 18 over the past 12 months. Although there are always naysayers ready to tell you that apple is finally to be run out of steam, today its because there is a possible Chinese Government ban on employees using their iphones at work that is panicking people into selling. Its the kind of company you can trust to win longterm. Thats why i dont want to overthink the fantasy football equivalent. The best comparison here of course is Patrick Mahomes from the Kansas City Chiefs. He is a twotime super bowl champion, twotime newschannel mvp and the top quarterback in fantasy football last year. And he was on the cramers skeedaddys team. He is the closest thing to a blue chip fantasy football player, a good one to have on your team in any given season. I like his team, my favorite today with my next we need arubas, rbs. We look for hero running backs, people. The running back position arguably the most important in fantasy football. Youre looking for steady production. But the very best for fantasy purposes are the ones that can both rush the ball and catch passes out of the backfield. Dual threatbacks that can win in multiple ways like brian westbrook, who was the best. Thats why i like many of the big tech teams for the running back position in your poifrl. Here we go, ready . Microsoft, alphabet, and amazon, all which feature multiprong bookcase. Microsoft has durable steady enterprise for business and the office 365 products as well as huge Growth Engine in the azure cloud unit. Not to mention some of the best exposure Artificial Intelligence and open ai, the company with chatgpt with the introduction of ai to their products. Theyve got gaming, linkedin, a lot of horses. Alphabet is still primarily an advertising business. It is resilient performances from the core search business, especially youtube. By the way, you got to sign up. Youtube now set to benefit are the nfl sunday ticket games that it took from that lame drek company. I cant wait to pull down the dish from my roof. But google cloud is getting bigger as well as many other potential sources of growth like the waymor selfdriving car. As the Company Grows during the larger footprint it built during the pandemic. Theyre the leader with Amazon Web Services. And while many expect that unit to see a big slowdown in growth, it managed to surprise the upside in the most recent quarter too. I think a lot that of is because of Artificial Intelligence and the demand that you need for space. And running back by Cap Committee that ive giving you. What are the football equivalent sneer here. Microsoft and alphabet represented by eckler. A lot of people drafted him high. And christian mccaffrey, in a little lower because he is injuryprone. Two west Coast Players last years number one and two fantasy running back. Eckler and mccaffrey have prolific years running the ball, 13 rushing touchdowns. Mccaffrey for more than 1,100 yards. But both ended up at the top of the running back rankings because of the receiving production. They each had more than 700 yards receiving and five touchdown reception. See, for amazon, i think theyre more like Saquon Barkley of the stock market. Barkley had two injuryimpacted years in 2020, 2021. He wasnt as high as the draft boards last yearas he typically. But then he outperformed with more than 1,300 yards rushing and ten touchdowns, plus another 3 hundred plus receiving yards. Amazon is a name many investors wrote off when it became clear they overwrote the logistics network. This year both barkley and amazon feel disrespected. And i bet theyll prove the doubters wrong. And oh, for the record, try toy never draft giants. Finally, Wide Receivers. Like with running backs, okay, you need production from your receivers. That means a lot of points scored. But with this position, you need to expect more volatility. Some weeks theyll lead your fantasy. Its sink or swim. Lead your fantasy team in points. Other weeks might do nothing for you. In that sense, theyre like pure oxygenated growth stocks. That i love so much which offer gigantic upside when the time is right, but appears when theyre out of favor, maybe Interest Rates are rising for example, and they get hurt. So who are the Wide Receivers of this particular stock market . The first is nvidia, the best performing stock, up 200 year to date. My second own it dont trade id name, the stock is still prone the big swings with 122 gain in 2020. Followed by a 50 beatdown last year for this huge value in 2023. Thats a lot of volatility. But when nvidia is on, oh, man, it is really on. Thats why the only fair comparison here is Justin Jefferson from the vikings. He was the top receiver in fantasy football last year, with 128 catches, more than 1800 yards receiving and 8 touchdown reception. You Better Believe he is going to top, if you havent drafted yet, he is still number one in most of the fantasy picks.

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