The u. S. Rating. No surprise there. History in the making President Biden would become the first sitting president to visit a piblt line hes planning to join strikers as those workers of the big three hit 12 days of walking out on their jobs. Lets begin with the markets on track for a lower open on this tuesday jim, youve been watching yields, of course. You commented this morning about the 20year in particular. Yeah. I think weave been going toward ive been saying this to club members a lets just say the opposite of an inverted yield curve t inverted is what im calling it youve got 4. 8, a 5. 3. What i think can happen is on the 20year you can usually get 6. Lets say Neel Kashkari is right, one hike. Then you have no more inverted yield curve. The problem is that when i go over stocks, locking in a 4. 8 is considered to be really pretty terrific. Its not bad. Its not bad. 4. 5 for ten years is not terrible either. People are looking at it. Go back 16, 17 years, wow, this is a great rate. I think thats really what were up against with stocks i can talk about what mike said yesterday, the ceo of chevron, talk about what jamie dimon is saying and get ready for 6 they havent been able to slow the economy down theyre selling a lot of bonds the fed is dumping its bonds im not saying were dinosaurs weve had tremendous periods where stocks are gone up and theyre 6, 7 on the 20year david, lets face it we can sit here all day and say i really like the 20year here, taking it to a buy, and no one would disagree with us. Listen, the tenyear has come into a lot of conversations. Yesterday we breached the 4. 5 level. It seemed to get a lot of attention. I dont know why 4. 49 doesnt, but 4. 50 does. Your point is twofold, jim one is the impact on the economy and the other is that it does pose a real choice or opportunity for investors who might prefer not to invest in equities exactly i think weve had tepid reception for equities for a while now. We had that vicious decision by the fed to surprise people in october of last year but carl, i just think that you could have this terrible situation where rates go up, earnings go down, the dollar is too strong what you have is people saying what do i need this for . No one i read today is saying this could be the end of the move, that rates could stop going higher that would be obviously one of the greatest things in the world. I just dont see the big layoffs i dont see the fed winning yet. I dont know whether one rate hike is enough i do know that when you speak to people they dont want to talk stocks its like, gees, 4. 8, i can go home bofa has a good note of what it would take to get the 10 to 5. They argue it would take more signs of reevaluation. They dont think thats going to happen and its going to come back down closer to 4. Interest rates went up so big yesterday, i dont think people realize that this is not on anybodys radar screen no one thought this. You have a lot of people who say, you know what ill sell the mega caps. The government is after them anyway ill sell them i got a good gain this year. Ill buy this piece of paper if it goes down in yield, maybe its all momentum i have to tell you, i feel exhausted by what Interest Rates are doing. Great piece in the journal today about americans, in their words, finally starting to feel the sting from fed hikes its worth listening to dimon and whabt he said about the world maybe not being ready to 7. Take a listen. Do you see another rate hike now . I think its more likely than not. I think people should be prepared for higher oil and gas prices, higher rates as a matter of just being prepared you and i can guess what its going to be. You dont know, i dont know, no one knows. I think the odds are higher than that so hopefully well get to it i think the geopolitical situation is the thing that most concerns me, and we dont know the effect of that on the economy. You agree with him . When i was in philadelphia with him at the beginning of the year, he was talking about 6 i think its perfectly realistic to think it could get to 7 do i agree with him . Hes hard to disagree with hes making a lot of cogent arguments. Its interesting he comes back to the geopolitical framework of things right now every time it doesnt feel as though that really is front and center for anybody who is making decisions about whether to buy or sell equities or, frankly, bonds. Geopolitics and the war in ukraine in particular doesnt seem to rise to the fore too often. He brings it up every single time as a chief if not the number one risk factor. Theres a great piece today about how the complete failure of the sanctions on the russians, because theyre selling oil to the chinese i came back i tried to find one positive article today, besides about the eagles winning. I honestly turned because ive had it i cant find anything positive i feel like many people who want stocks to go higher, i feel beleaguered. The only thing i have going for it is everybody feels beleaguered. Thats the contrary sentiment someone emailed me today from the club and said, jim, are you aware of all the stocks you have that are double tops yeah, thats still thats because everything you get a double top when everything is bad. David, i dont care about the double top i care about the idea that maybe theres something out there thats good. I just havent been able to think of it yet. In my mind it always comes back to either Morgan Stanley or goldman. Today its katy huberty saying that the fed is overemphasize growth over the inflation data they think markets are poised for maybe 50 basis point correction here. Im a believer that everything is so neg tich that youve got to find things to buy. Im not aggressive its not that much oversold yet. I was watching frank this morning. October is always good when you come out of this bad september here it is, the 26th of september. You bolt now knowing october has always been good after im not bolting. Im not john bolton either. Or michael. When i look at, for instance, whats happening in detroit, we have a president remember he proclaimed hes the Union President . Uhhuh. Hes backing it up. Hes actually going to be on the picket line. What does that say for the people that dont want a 32 workweek and 40 increase in wages . Who doesnt want that i want that. Will you give it to me, please my trust zone shares are in ford you cant get me to sell ford. I cant get you to sell ford . No. Theres nothing i could say, never be able to generate a real margin, that they are that tesla is going to dominate everything and everybody see the piece today about the missteps in china. Four times earnings four times earnings. I have stocks do you say that to yourself in your sleep, that three hours that you briefly get that you call sleep four times earnings. Four times earnings. Last night i took five classes. I didnt go to biology once and the final was coming thats your dream yeah. I didnt go to biology and i was about to flunk class thats the equivalent of macys at three times earnings. I didnt take biology. I didnt want to ruin my transcript. Not in any way indicative of the future performance of the stock price. Thank you. Im not saying thats good. Im saying they never get out of that trough. Like a valuation trough or something . Yes, yes. Boy, are you negative macys down 50 at 3. 5 times earnings you should consider it people arent shoplifting Tommy Hilfiger shirts. Its going to have to be an increase in sales. By the way, luxury is not doing well at all, looking at a recent note here. Merrill lynch eu luxury basket is back to flat. Val teen follows chairman says theyre seeing strong signs that growth this year will be much worse than the 10 expected. Weve got 44 Million People next week that have to start paying Student Loans how about this ive got an idea why dont we just stop and come in every morning and ill say, david, i like the tenyear. And then you leave. And we do a stop trading. David youre not in the shot. There you go. David, ive been thinking, i like the tenyear. Then i go back here, and we do what you look at here. Maybe i say to you, hey, jim, how about that tenyear . I like the tenyear here. I think the tenyear is breaking out. Okay, then were done. Then the bottom of the market and we get started. Kind of like when we run the specials wall street in crisis or markets in turmoil always a bottom. I feel like this is an on we bottom. Jim mentions, of course, the strike later this morning the president is scheduled to depart for wayne, michigan, where hes expected to appear alongside workers picketing. Phil lebeau is in wayne, michigan a busy day, phil. Reporter going to be a busy day, carl. Were not exactly sure where the president will be here in wayne county we assume its going to be the Michigan Assembly plant which is behind me. That hasnt been confirmed by the white house. Frankly, were waiting to see if this is where hell meet with union members. While we wait for the president , we know what all that entails, the politics involved, et cetera there is the negotiation between the uaw and gm, stellantis and ford when it comes to ford, a big issue that popped up yesterday is what happens with a new ev battery plant that the Company Plans to open just west of detroit in marshall, michigan. Why is this important . Well explain in a bit this is scheduled to open in 2026 with about 2,500 employees. Ford is investing 3. 5 billion in this plant. Thats going to be a key part of it, developing the infrastructure for electric vehicles yesterday ford said its pausing construction of that battery plant. They didnt go into a lot of de tails but said theyre assessing the ability to competitively operate the battery plant. Hmm. The word competitively there should catch your attention. Just a few minutes afford issued that statement, the uaw blasted ford saying were simply asking for a Just Transition to electric vehicles, and ford is instead doubling down on their race to the bottom clearly this has become a thorn in the discussions between the uaw and ford in terms of will these workers be represented by the uaw . Where is the plant here . A number of these ev battery plants are joint ventures between a big three automaker and a korean of japanese battery firm theyre not under the master agreement of that particular auto automaker. That statement from the uaw minutes affords, clearly this is one of the issues in focus today. One last thing as you take a look at what we might be seeing today, keep in mind as you look at gm and stellantis, youre looking at just 12 of the uaw members here in the u. S. Who are on strike right now. Certainly a big deal were not trying to downplay that keep in mind its just 12 of the membership on strike right now. The uaw could make this a much bigger strike in the days to come, weeks to come. They could say we want to strike this particular plant or take down a couple plants that remains to be seen. Were waiting for the president to come to the detroit area. Theres a pool camera with him you know there will be pictures of him shaking hands with uaw members, giving the speech that weve heard many times of how he stands with organized z labor. Beyond that, we dont have anything else. When we left on friday we seemed to think ford developed a better relationship with uaw we come in today, this feels like a 96mileperhour fastball thrown at the union. Good friday, bad tuesday what the heck . Reporter i think thats the nature of these discussions, jim. Weve seen this from the uaw remember about a week and a half ago, everybody was saying, hey, things are progressing between ford and the uaw they came out and they absolutely blasted ford along with the other automakers. They said, you know what, were going to have strikes at the Michigan Assembly plant, and then the two other plants for gm and stellantis and then last week very active talks between the uaw and ford very active doesnt mean its positive but ford then came out and said weve made some progress here. Still significant gaps and then this came out i think this is the nature of these discussions, jim, that its going to be its hard to predict what its going to take to get this over the finish line. Streets trying to gauge the impact of the strike on inflation by looking at inventories and the impact on used car prices, for example are we going in hot in terms of inventories on the d 3 im glad you asked. I checked in with j. D. Power yesterday. They have not seen a measurable difference in inventories. Keep in mind 85 of the production has not changed at all. Theyre continuing to crank out ram 1500s at stellantis, the Chevy Silverado at general motors, ford f150s. Those are the big sellers. Theres no change in inventory yes, if youre looking for a bronco or a ranger, you might see an impact at dealerships so far j. D. Power says theres no measurable difference in inventories at this point. Phil, talk to you in a bit, i imagine many times this morning. Phil lebeau in wayne county as the president arrives later this morning. A closer look at barry tillers take on the technology on spotify and gtp well get to upgrades and down grades as well ilungncdi calls on wing and draftkings when we come back in a minute. The next thing to Pay Attention tore for ai is not search and chat and Everything Else its when it goes from research to action, when it cant autonomously get things done for you. Think of travel, being able to say i want to go to istanbul it knows enough about you, enough about all of your preferences that it can basically ask you one or two questions and then actually go and execute the transaction. Right now its research. When it turns to action, everything changes thats barry diller on squawk with his take on whats next for ai spotifys chief tells the bbc the company will not ban aicreated content from the platform open ai says chatgpt can now see, hear and speak. Allows it to understand spoken words, respond with a synthetic voice and images dillers point is whether or not this is all fair use someone has to get paid in his view. Well, as we know, a key point in the Writers Strike and something they believe they have successfully negotiated an answer to. By the way, the leadership votes today. Its a little bit of a process here we do expect it will be fully ratified, the deal they did finally come to a few days later than i thought they would, but they got there its funny, though we talked every day hourly abou ai, right up to the introduction of chatgpt with all the excitement we dont do it as often. I dont think that means in any way this not moving forward at a rapid pace i certainly dont think our perhaps mentioning it only once a show instead of numerous times is reflective, jim, of the meaningful move forward this technology is making and the attempts at commercial that are under way at so many companies. Barry diller said one day in july of 2024, your wintel computer will do what he said. The chips will be shipped. Youll be able to book your restaurant just by talking saying im going to istanbul. A year from now youll get a pc that can do it. Youve been saying q1 thats when theyre going to be marketing them. In q2 youll get them. Q3 theyll be prevalent and its a whole new cycle. Thats one of the reasons why micron keeps getting recommended. Its here and youll be speaking to your pc it knows a lot about you exactly what barry said. Instead of taking you can take the emirates flight from kennedy. You live in summit you probably want to take the delta flight, and ill book it for you. Then it will do that it can speak, it can taushgs it can write. This is it i think one of the reasons why people are so excited about these stocks is its sooner rather than later. Now it looks like everyone is just yeah, i know that. But they dont know that the same way the advent of the internet 25 years its big. There was a huge bubble, as we all know. A great deal of excitement a lot of Business Plans based on nothing, but at the same time it wasnt as if it wasnt the most significant thing that happened. This time the companies that are using it are making fortunes they have enough money to put it to work. As the fed pointed out last week, its now in a world where i. T. Is stacked everywhere as opposed to some cases in the late 90s. When i look at walmart, i have con fluid on tonight, the engine that makes it so they can figure out, you want a pair of slacks from walmart, to use the term if you want them, they can search the data and find out whether its available same day. Can anybody else do that does anyone else have the money to do that i think thats why the other retailers are getting smoked they just dont have the money to do it there are going to be products that will be developed specifically for weve got to go my friend. Well talk about it more. Meta connect begins tomorrow take a look at the premarket here close to early session lowons the premarket, and well get the opening bell in six minutes. Gold isnt merely a commodity. Its an investment in people and communities. At osisko, we strive to build modern, safe, and sustainable mines that benefit all. Think big. Shape tomorrow. Osisko. A look at nasdaq laggards. Sirius is at the top chips in china tech, jd. Com, tesla will present at bofas future car conference about the future of the automobile opening bell is coming up in just about 3 1 2 minutes dont go away. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Lets squeeze in a mad dash. Micron. Im searching for something positive c citis quarter is released tomorrow theyre saying micron could have an upside surprise this is the only piece of research i saw other than the katy huberty note [ bell ringing ]. Nuveen global net lease doing the opening and hispanico. [ cheers and applause ] one of the great arts organizations. Theres something positive. David, thats nice, you know well m. C. C. Has done a good job there. You want to do the upgrade, jpm goes to overweight i think people are discovering that draftkings its like the default one. Maybe the government will go after them when people look at it, its an intuitive site david, that does matter. People want to be in the one thats easiest yes, whatever is the quickest and easiest way to lose money. Between that and the dominos topic, definitely football season the dominos and wingstop is interesting. I like the call because one of the reasons why theyve been down is they didnt have the doordash and uber. Now they have that then th