Positive rates have stabilized a little bit. The data is mixed. How do you assess whats been a really difficult week. Well see how long that will last seeing the yields move up again absent an expansion of the conflicts in the middle east, and the reason i say that, if you look at the treasury auction, i think, on tuesday, it was kind of punk, right . I think that will continue to be the narrative going forward. The market was due for a bounce and amazon was as good a reason as any in reflection, i thought earnings were actually great, the market said, hey, we can pick and choose here 24 th is a respite critical companies have missed and missed badly and the market is punitive. Its the largest, the highest ive ever seen as ive said many times, the risks outweigh the rewards theres a time to play and a time to wait your return is definitely defined by your point of entry this is not it youre playing more than look, you bought more meta i did you bought more microsoft i did right yesterday. Yeah. As those stocks obviously had some troubles, even with decent earnings in microsofts case. And you have amazon, too so its not like youre running for the hills. Youre getting a little more invested in the biggest names within the market. Yeah, well, lets go wide to the portfolio. Yesterday i was actually net short yesterday, not necessarily at the beginning of the day, but going into the earnings for meta i was short through the qs, right through the qs. I was short multiple calls on meta i was short the 30s, the 37s, the 42s or whatever. Look, they didnt offset the loss there, but it was unbelievable trading i got into meta. I traded yesterday, got in way too early. It was only down six and then thought i was a hero and then its down 18. I really loaded up down 17 sold part of that. Now my position right now is double what it was going into yesterday. So theres opportunity in terms of microsoft, shouldnt be down at all as ive said and as the earnings bore out this is the number one play in ai so im happy to take on idiosyncratic risks on fundamental stories from bottoms up analysis but not willing to take on broad market exposure. Jenny, be in terms of amazon, its been a tough week lets focus on mega cap. I think thats where people really need to know whats happening and what the broader implications are for the overall market did amazon just save us, the nasdaq, from a bigger plunge that seemed to be putting itself together maybe i think probably and im thinking about the conversation we had a couple days ago where you said are these guys tired, and i said, exhausted. A bigger plunge, probably yes. But what does that mean from here i dont think it saved us from a bigger plunge. I dont think it means its going to reform a bottom and were going to have a huge move up because when steve says microsoft shouldnt be down, it shouldnt be down based on the story, but i think they all should be down, or at least need to take a pause based on the fact that these stocks collectively, the mega caps, are up 55 this year look how much they were down last year. So what . Okay. Thats what some of the bulls would say. Im not throwing it back at you. Theres Brad Gerstner would suggest that they would not overextended, look how much they were down last year. They have come in as well. Thats true and thats right. Im up 150 this year. What more do you expect . What more can i give you the numbers which gerstner is right on particularly when you look at meta, trading at 19 times earnings, 17 Earnings Growth the year after that, amaidsing work on cost cutting its still a great business. Thats all right, but then we need to look at the human side, which is just theres exhaustion and people are just exhausted owning these back up to that, okay, professional Portfolio Managers whether its at the big macro level, are looking at portfolios unbalanced, where they have too much exposure to large cap u. S. And they have to rebalance or individuals looking at positions and saying, wow, i have 9 in apple. I have 7 in amazon. Whatever it is and they just have to take money off the table because its the responsible, prudent thing to do thats where this is coming out, rebalancing, emotional exhaustion theyve done everything we can but the math isnt terrible on them, right . Its just not. Which is why i use the word exhaustion maybe there was, but so you rest for a minute. Rest. Well, you could make the case some had seen enough and started buying the stock kevin, i use stephanie link buying alphabet, right, on the big pullback, taking a look at buying more meta weiss moves, the bounces were seeing today meta is up 3 . Microsoft is up two. We said amazon is up eight intel is up 10 amd up more than 3 tesla is up today. Stocks are having to rebound how would you assess where we are . We were overvalued and saw things come back to earth a little bit an opportunity to regroup. The companies are a higher price and lower valuation. Jenny and i are in a different world for the most part but do own microsoft and apple. Microsoft was my final trade last week. I dont know that apple will be as good. From our perspective and bryns, weve been dealing with this volatility writing covered calls. Steve hasnt seen this in a while. Weve been in a muted environment follows the vix, volatility is concerned. Our call rating has picked up actively a perfect segue to you, bryn. You do employ a similar strategy to what kevin does it was a pretty turbulent week and now we have apple in front of us. Where are we today as we head into the next week stocks were firmly in the drivers seat against bonds and within stocks all about tech then all of a sudden as the bond market started to wake up and say, hey, maybe stocks are right and were not going into a recession and we have all of this fiscal spending baking itself into the economy with the i. R. A. , the a. R. A. , the bond market woke up and agreed with stocks and is uninverting. The bond market has been firmly in control steve touched on it but its not something that we do youre continuing to get signs, the three biggest players, the fed, the chinese and hedge funds are sellers or are short until that settles down, that will be a headwind to stocks microsoft crushed it not only in tone but delivery. Copilot will be huge. Amazon is a really great story has andy jassy finally gotten his sea legs the idiosyncrasy building up, apple is probably going to be like a facebook or a google versus an amazon or a microsoft. I think were going to see dispersion of returns within these names. Until bonds settle down, i think we all have to buckle up and know volatility will remain high you, weiss, bought apple puts are you concerned about what will be delivered next week . I am. I dont know how much of an impact of the 15 launch will be. A lot of it happened after the quarter. I just cant imagine the commentary will be good with whats happening in china. Were seeing huawei pick up share, and the government came out and said, you know, to the government entities, dont buy apple phones and were seeing them shift through supply chain to india. Theres a reason theyre doing that tim cook himself was over in china himself were told recently just a couple weeks ago if not last week. Its troubling plus its overvalued, and they have not shown over the last few years the growth were seeing, also, the growth in their nonhardware business, theyre asset light. Services also declined other than its the ultimate market proxy, because if its waiting, reduced over the last year in the indices, to me theres no there there its a quality brand, a great brand. It does deserve to be where it is i think the odds favor a decline. This, kevin, is one of those names where the p e has come in, right . Now its probably still above its tenyear historical average, but its not as stretched as, if you believe it was stretched, its not as stretched as it was. Not at all. I think if the stock sells off after the earnings and stevens put works out, it would be a buying opportunity to add to it. Weve been writing calls left and right. Im sure bryn has as well, over the past three months generated 11 in premium just off apple. Theres opportunity when you see a stock pull back. To your point it has better valuations here. The earnings might not be fantastic but i want to own for the long term. I will be add to go it if it pulls back well call it 27. It was north of 30 not that long ago. Right so youre right on the p e i own apple, and kevins right when the stock was at 185, i sold the 195 january calls thats not a call away for me which is great the durability of their earnings, theyre not going to whiff on earnings. If you look at the charts on apple, scott, it broke the 100 Day Moving Average just this week so now you have the stock going into earnings and thats just like 101. You dont buy a stock once it just broke a 200 Day Moving Average. I think it will be weak going into the print but will be a buying opportunity once it settles out. Theres weakness and its 10 of the nasdaq its extremely relevant. The other conversation, this idea of bonds relative to stocks, the cover of barons, jenny was talking about this, ackman took his short off. Remember, he was short the long end for a long time. Right the reports say he made 200 million off that position. They say its time to stop crying about bonds and buy them ins instead. Is now the moment . You expect yields to back up maybe you think its too early to buy if you go further out youll make money the rates are unsustainably high large,private investors, theres another option and that is private credit where you can get yields into the midteens and theyre secured. So thats another option focusing on the ten year, 4. 8, or the two year at 5 , there are other options out there including, you know, bbbs that will give you superior yield or paper. A 5. 7 coupon. So why not be there and just wait this out . Going back to apple, if apple did get crushed, i would be the first one to step in and buy it. Since were going back that way, does that mean theres a floor, theres some level of a floor theres definitely a floor. I dont know what it is. Youre right even somebody who has been the most cautious people if not downright bearish on this program says if apple sells off a lot, im going to buy it meta was down, buy it. Thats you microsoft, okay, it didnt get the pop requisite to its earnings what do you do you buy more stephanie link, alphabet, buy it you know what i mean i havent bought alphabet im just saying it is a prevailing thought broadly in the market and where the market is over the past year is having a reasonable year i think tesla right now is on an extended down trend. To me that stock is still grossly overvalued with fundamentals that are failing. So im not stepping in and buying that. Netflix had a good quarter i dont know if thats sustainable. If that falls down appreciably, maybe ill step in you have to be picking and choosing with bottomsup fundamentals rather than trying to play the market the market finds a play, i play it for hedging, i dont play the market to express a positive view necessarily, but i will do that jenny okay. You took it back to apple. I want to take it back to bonds. Thats an interesting question a lot of viewers are into. They have their retirement accounts to protect. Here is how i think about the stop crying about bonds. If you have a very long time frame and you dont mind the ups and downs of the shgmarket, you dont want to buy bonds here a tenyear treasury, at best youre getting 4. 9 for the next ten years. If inflation continues, youre not really getting 4. 9 , because you want to take inflation off that if you have extenuating circumstances like college that you want to pay for or a house, yes, or youre just really nervous about the market and it makes you sick and you want to sit on the sidelines, yes, you absolutely want to buy bonds here, and weve been buying bonds actively over the last week for our clients who want bonds where we had cash and were like, whoa you can buy short, superhigh quality corporate paper right now and get 6, 6. 5 , buy treasuries and get 5, 5. 5 and i dont think Interest Rates are going up significantly from here so if you stay relatively short and you tune out your Interest Rate risk, putting a ton of cash in your pocket, i think you do buy bonds here if you need that but i dont like the blanket idea of, oh, yes, everyone should be buying bonds bond allocations are very, very unique and circumstantial. I want to pivot before we run out of time in our first block jpmorgan shares are down about 2. 5 , and we get news jamie dimon has filed to sell shares for the First Time Ever as ceo a million shares its part of a sales plan. Mike mayo at wells fargo security, the timing along with his recent bearish comments got our attention. Ill leave it to you i will not be the one to read into anything. Its notable for the First Time Ever hes selling jpm shares as ceo. I guess it got mikes attention, its not a thesis for getting in or out of the stock, the fact hes never sold any stocks previously is the most important part of the news, at least to me. Bryn, how do you read this . Well, you just dont know whats behind it, i agree with kevin. I thought it was incredible he had never sold i think we lost bryns audio. I think we got you back. Im sorry, can you start again because i lost you there yeah, yeah. I just think just as kevin was saying that hes never sold any shares, to me, as ceo thats the biggest headline you dont know if its Estate Planning is he always glass half empty the geopolitical risks he sees out there . Hes running one of the most important banks in the world i wouldnt conflate the two. I think thats more guessing i think him never selling shares before tells you what he really thinks of jpmorgan it has at times not to make more of it than there is, we have time stabbed prior moves by him, remember the diamond bottom was a seminal moment. That was a soothing, if you will, effect for people. How do you read this if at all. I dont really think people who worked for me got half their comp in stock every time you invest, sell it youre verextended in lehman and forget that lehman went belly up. What about financials in general at this moment i dont like them i will probably be shorting the Regional Bank index. In terms of the big banks, i met with a couple of bankers a couple of days ago that window is nowhere close to opening. M a, in terms of general m a with rates where they are, capital at 9 , deals dont make stens. Those are the business that is feed the large financials. I do believe in getting another opportunity. First on jpmorgan, bryn is right this is a tax and Estate Planning thing i think theyve said it so lets move beyond it that guy has so much wealth it can go down 60 in his life and he is unimpacted adjust the financials im seeing opportunity in there. Coming out of Silicon Valley bank looking at truist, pnc, and then they all shot back up all of those stocks are back to where it was a really serious second look its interesting, too, steve, when you say youre going to short the banks, we have shares and some are reporting decent earnings the higher Interest Rate environment is benefiting them i think theres opportunity there. Theyre attractive right now theres a clip coming on the refi. Number two, they havent had to write down the portfolio though the office space isnt occupied jenny, please. Though it isnt occupied, theyre still current on the lease payments you cant write that down. You have this massive cliff, they also make money on lending, and, yes, net interest margins are higher it will be less of an appetite yeah, but if you listen to pncs earnings call, theyll go through with you specifically here is our debt related to office buildings, and its much, much smaller. Thats a quasi money center, pnc. Im talking about all the others if you parse through, the reality is a lot of them dont its not cliche its fact. Lets take a break, when we come back we have big moves from Kevin Simpson today. Were gog gthugthe. Intoo roh os [ clock ticking ] were going to have so much fun. Municipal bonds dont usually get the Media Coverage the stock market does. In fact, most people dont find them all that exciting. But, if youre looking for the potential for consistent income thats federally taxfree, now is an excellent time to consider Municipal Bonds from hennion walsh. If you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 18002173217. Well send you our exclusive bond guide, free. With details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. Hennion walsh has specialized in fixed income and Growth Solutions for 30 years, and offers highquality Municipal Bonds from across the country. They provide the potential for regular income. Are federally taxfree. And have historically low risk. Call today to request your free bond guide. 18002173217. Thats 18002173217. Were back i mentioned Kevin Simpson making moves we need to go through. You sold u. P. S. , what didnt you like with the Earnings Report . It was a humbling experience because ive been banging the table about u. P. S. Saying the market has been getting it wrong until i saw the Earnings Report. It looks like the market got it right. We were seeing something along the lines of 13 historically. When that dropped down to 8, it went below our threshold it triggered a sell strategy very humbling. Do you look at buying it back at some level . Its a stock weve been in and out of 58 of revenues go to employees. Its a big number. Losing their sales, their margins, it will affect the stock for sure i love the company long term, but short term we care about, a lot more, about our clients wallets than ego you were saying a look about this as long as it gets to a level you like but you have a number in your mind. What is it its 125. We started researching it last february and theres been so much going on both from the consumer perspective, the strike that they needed to deal with and the costs of doing business has been complicated weve looked at it and said they took price, they never gave any back their margins are under pressure their shipments are under pressure from amazon theres a lot here theres a margin of safety price and around 125 a share, youre back to where you were on a prepandemic valuation of u. P. S. At that point, too, you have a 5 dividend yield, so i think i can live with it there another 70 down is not going fob pretty if it creates an opportunity, i hear you xpo, youre in that still, right . They report on monday a. S