Transcripts For CNBC The 20240704 : vimarsana.com

Report results. Our trader likes into of them. Thats ahead in the Earnings Exchange. But we are decidedly red on the day so far, taking a breather. Its been a nice drun. The dow down. The s p 500 down nearly one full percent. And the nasdaq composite, 15,959, really the laggard today, down about 1. 5 . A bright spot in the markets so far has been a not so bright spot for the median term, talking regional lenders. But a bounceback for names like coamerica. Citizens financial up 5 . Two of the better performing regional banks. And nycb, you can see there, its up as well on the day. Now, there is one honorable and maybe even more so Honorable Mention is a mega cap bank, jpmorgan base, the biggest lender in america, up about 1 . It hit a record intraday high in trading today, so if i was at a telestrator, i would draw a star next to that name. And speaking of record highs, bitcoin just did it. Surging past the 69,000 mark and setting a new record intraday high earliertoday, but we touched it, and it pulled back significantly, now at 65,366 for the largest krcrypt currency in our marketplace. Our next guest bought this stock back in2022 when it was under 200 a share, sold it at 705 after that. Hes now returning to his Value Investor roots, betting on that trade from here. Lets bring in the chief Investment Officer at greenwich investment. I kind of know why you got into vi nvidia in the first place and why you got out of it and why you wouldnt get back into it right now. Hi, dom. Thanks for having me back. First of all, i look for stocks that i think are undervalued and sometimes Growth Stocks can be undervalued. In the summer of 2022, vnvidia was falling quite a bit, but i thought the stock was very undervalued, so i started buying it. I kept buying it all the way down to, you know, approximately 125 or so is where i got it at the lowest. But as you said, the stock has absolutely surged, and i started getting a little nervous, you know, for a couple of reasons. One, i think its now overvalued, and ive heard the arguments that its not overvalued, but i think it is. Especially if you look at it on a pricetosales basis. But also i have fairly large positions in etfs such as qqq, spy and smh. Nvidia is 26 of the smh. So i decided i didnt need to own the stock individually anymore. So its a Risk Management decision. But youve got house money right now. Where would we roll that into . Cash is yielding 4 to 5 in savings accounts, even more so in certain parts of the treasury markets. Money market funds. Do you city there or deploy elsewhere, where there is value with the markets hovering near record highs . Im doing a little bit of both. I have a large position in treasury bills and still rolling those over, primarily very shortterm treasury bills that roll over 5 . And im happy to take that money with money that im not sure how to invest right now. But im also, as you said, looking more in the value area, especially in dividend days stocks. And my latest big buy was pfizer. Just a couple of days ago, i put some money into pfizer, because i think its a very undervalued stock. I think the stock has sold off primarily because we have overcome our fears about covid. But this is a company that has, you know, 112 drugs currently in the pipeline, and im betting that at least a few of those are going to hit pretty big. And its yielding well over 6 , and im happy to take that yield. Does that mean that youre getting into it despite the fact that the momentum clearly is with some of these glp1s within health care and pharma specifically . Were talking about names like ely legally, novo northis. Is that the betters play right now versus an ely lily . Im a longterm hold and buy investor. When i buy, i buy for the longterm, looking for good dividends over time. I think because of those glp1 drugs, many of these other pharmaceutical companies have run up a lot, and i would be hesitant to jump into them right now at their current prices. So i would rather go with Something Like a pfizer thats been so oversold that everybody hates that theyre pretty much just giving the stock away, and im happy to take it at current prices. Thats the case, weve got the stocks that youre putting money into. Theres also a concern right now that markets could fall even further from here. Nobody has a crystal ball, but its not out of the realm of reason to have a bit of a pullback. If that were to hypothetically happen, how deep could it be, and what is the biggest concern you have for markets at these levels right now . I would say the economy is doing quite well. Im not too concerned about a recession any time this the immediate future. But the thing that worries me the most is the massive amount of government debt. Were at 34 trillion, and the interest on the debt, the interest cost is now up to 3 from 1. 6 just two years ago. And its going to go higher, because the fed keeps Interest Rates at very high levels. And im very concerned that this debt, which is already the interest on the debt is already 14 of the budget and as big as what were spending on defense, is going to prevent us from doing a lot of other things. So i am afraid that congress, for example, may Start Talking about increasing taxes again. That would be a negative for the stock market. Ive seen a big run primarily in the largecap sectors, so im avoiding those right now. I am buying etfs, but the etfs im buying are primarily in the midcap and smallcap areas. Except for a few individual stocks like pfizer, which of course is a larger cap stock. But other than that, im focusing more on areas that have not participated in the rally in the last year or so. They would participate hypothetically, academically perhaps, if the fed were to cut Interest Rates. Those small and midcap type names. Do you feel as though thats something the fed needs to seriously consider . Do we need to take rates multiple times throughout the next several months . Absolutely. In my opinion, the fed should have started at the last meeting. They should have cut 25 basis points, perhaps every other meeting and get that fed funds rate down, because, you know, inflation is down. If you look at the last pce, its 2. 4 year over year. I dont think the fed needs to wait anymore, and i wonder why theyre waiting. Remember, Monetary Policy works with a lag. So if they wait too long, they risk a recession. I would like to see the shorter end of that yield curve come down. I think longtell Interest Rates may stay at current levels or go up a little. Thank you very much, sir. Well see you again soon. Thanks, dom. Tesla shares are under pressure again this afternoon after a suspected arson attack halts production at its giga factory facility in berlin. That stock is down 4 today, but the next guest has a hold on that stock and remains bearish on the auto sector overall. Joining me now is colin langan. Thank you very much for joining us this afternoon here. Lets talk about tesla first, because it is a driver of the market, if you will. This is a stock that really does have a lot of influence on certain parts of the Market Dynamic right now. Do you feel as though this downward momentum is justified and how much further could it go . Yeah. I think in the near term, were talking about another year until at least the model two comes. So the stock really lacks a clear catalyst over that period. So theres still going to be some downward pressure the stock. But theres risk rewards to the name. So we are still equal weight on it. If thats the case for tesla, is it still best in breed with regard to the ev makers out there . The entire industry, every single one of them, from china to the u. S. , has seen some of those publicly traded stocks take a huge hit. Is there a Value Proposition that comes to fruition because tesla is, in fact, the best that we have out here on the american side of things market cap wise, opposed to the ev names out this china these days . I mean, tesla does have a current leadership position here. In the near term, were talking about slowing deliveries. And, you know, i think from the broader industry, evs are a challenge, and that was the focus of our report this morning. Particularly from a regulatory challenge. Well see what happens with the white house proposed apparently changes coming to deregulations that areout there, which are quite aggressive and need more head winds for the traditional automakers. What is the trade right now within autos . Is there a place that stands out in your mind across the sphere . We are bullish on a handful of suppliers. I think its a company thats diversified on the Combustion Engine and epower train. And theirle position how smooth that transition occurs. For traditional automakers, theres challenges. You have the regulatory push toward evs, consumer demand is slowing, and they need to smell more of these. The epa rules sell around 9 , which are at 3 today. You have prizing pressure thats going to put pressure on those stocks. Thats been a big driver of their profitability. All the indicators are that pricing is in decline. Partly driven by the high amount of capacity in the industry, which i dont think people are focusing enough on. The capacity side of things could be an overhang. Theres been this story thats developed about some of the automakers that are having a comparative advantage because of their tilt towards hybrid model vehicles, not straightup electric vehicles and not total internal Combustion Engine. How important do you think that transition period will be for some of these manufacturers, given that hybrid dynamic thats developing and the demand picture picking up for hybrid vehicles opposed to pure ev . Well, i mean, having the capability of hybrid in your war chest is going to be payoff for companies. So i think ford, toyota, you know, stellantis, all have developed a hybrid option. But the reality is, if you look at the rules and probably even whats going to be the revised rules for 2032, youre still going to need a massive amount of evs regardless. So well see what happens. You know, particularly with the president ial election in november and how that changes, and maybe that will change the outlook for the needed evs. But its nice to have that hybrid. And ultimately, the rules are going to come down, because the targets for ev is so aggressive. So companies that have that hybrid option is probably going to be worth having. Colin, before we let you go, you brought up the election and possible rules ahead. How much do you look at or how do you try to forecast what future regulations look like, and how much does that play into yourmodels and valuation . Well, the headwinds around electric vehicles is one of the key drivers of our thegtive thesis. Weve seen this, if you go back years there were points where automakers were forced to sell small cars to hit fuel economy standards. So i think if you look at the media reports from people we talk to in d. C. , it sounds like the proposed biden changes seem for fairly benine, that youre going to keep that 67 , maybe allow some ev in that mix to get to targets. But were talking about targets that are quote aggressive and challenging to hit. Colin, thank you very much for the conversation. Thank you. Coming up on the show, heres one more look at the mystery chart of the day, a company finding a way to benefit from the tight Housing Market as people stay in their homes for longer. Well reveal that name coming up next and speak with the ceo. Plus, three more names on deck with results. Were talking hangers, hackers, and head winds ahead. Were back after this. Rylee from rylees realty hi this listing sounds incredible. Lets check it out. Says here it gets plenty of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. its odd how in an instant things can transform. Slipping out of balance into freefall. Im glad i found stability amidst it all. Gold. Standing the test of time. Welcome back to the exchange. Shares of deck manufacturer, trex, is up 15 this year, despite concerns about an economic slowdown. Higher mortgage rates, one of the reasons why, as its led more people, not shockingly, to stay in their homes and maybe renovate them. Renovations make up more than 90 of trexs business, only 5 is actually from new home construction. For more now, im joined by trex ceo brian fairbanks. You may recall that we spoke, audience, to brian right after the Quarterly Earnings report. So thank you very much for being in person with us. Thank you. So lets talk about the state of the Housing Market. Everybody who watches cnbc knows what the current state of play is. But from somebody who has a big hand in how all of this is playing out, do you feel as though the Housing Market is in a place where Interest Rates are still a huge headwind for the market overall . What we talk less about in the Housing Market is what are those people doing that already have the lower mortgages, already in their home, and it is difficult to make that next move up to the extra 500, 1,000 square feet because of the cost of the home, as well as the mortgage rate. So a lowcost way to add space to your home is by putting a deck on. It might be replacing an old wood deck thats falling apart. Generally get 10 to 12 years out of a wood deck or an allnew deck. This is a trend towards bringing that indoors out. Couches, ookware, tvs. So youre bringing that feeling oh of your living room to your deck. Have you felt as though its tough to comp against many parts of the pandemic lifestyle that have happened. People spent a lot of people on patio furniture, decking projects. If you could put for us in your expert vision the demand picture now versus what it was like in say 202122, what do you feel as though the trajectory still is . Is there still real momentum or is it starting to normalize . We saw explosive growth during the pandemic. We saw the growth and have held onto the growth. In 2023 we saw mid single digit increase. For 2024, weve gooded to 11 to 13 growth. So the industry, the higher interest and Outdoor Living is normalized back to the areas where we expected it to be. Longterm, we expect to deliver on average 12 growth. Thats conversion of wood, converting them to composite. More railing on the decks and somed a ed adjacent products to it easier for the consumer. Part of the education process for me, because i told you the last time i did a decking project, was going through all the options and the cost benefit. The price points can vary from lumber through pvc and everything else. What is the education process like on your end . Because youre not necessarily selling to theend customer, but you have distribution out there. What do you tell customers about why the product you have out there compares better than the wood side of things and the pvc side and everything in between . The most important thing to do is make it easy for the consumer. We have product lines from 2 x the price of wood, all the way up to our signature decking line. So 2 a foot to 10 a linear foot. We want to make it easy so our consumer can find a contractor, see the products, or where can they get that material . We use our website for a lot of that education. People will start with that. Searching on composite decking or just decking, find the website, and well help walk them through that process. Even to the extent we have our own inside sales department. When we sew this information coming in, we can say is there something we can do to help you through this process . Based upon that phone and web traffic and how you see customer demand pick up or wherever it is, where do you think in america are you seeing the most activity and interest in your products, and where are things maybe not quite as robust and other parts of the u. S. . Its really balanced across north america where the Population Centers are, or in the winter. So were going to get more snow in the northeast and midwest. So you dont build as many decks in those areas. So more of that business moves into the south and out west. But the season kicks off in april and runs through the end of october. And all of the indicators that we are seeing thus far, contractors have good backlogs, theyre ready, back to where they were prepandemic. So generally speak, about five to seven weeks. And were hearing strong indicators from those in our channel, on the pro channel, home centers, as well as the contractors. Now, before we let you go, from either your business perspective and or the macro market overall, where do you think Interest Rates could be, should be to really kick things off for your business in the Housing Market in general . I think well continue to perform well, even if rates stay where they are. I would expect over the next year or so, well see some easing within those rates. That will open up the affordability. And the nice part of that, as you have people moving up from the first home to the second home to the third home, that does drive repair and remodeling. Today, were seeing our tail wind coming from people staying in their home. But once they start moving, we go back to the old model where they look to repair the deck already on the house or add additional space. All right. Brian fair banks with trex, thank you very much, sir. Thanks. See you soon. Still ahead on the show, its been a rough year for tesla shareholders like elon musk. Up next, well explain why musks pain jf isefbezos gain. The exchange is back after this. Bringing you an elevated experience, tailormade for trader minds. Go deeper with thinkorswim our awardwining trading platforms. Unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. And sharpen your skills with an immersive Online Education crafted just for traders. All so you can trade brilliantly. To build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. Mining partners. Technology partners. Education. Supply chain. Energy. What if one partner could do it all . That partner is ontario, canada. With all the Earnings Exchange<\/a>. But we are decidedly red on the day so far, taking a breather. Its been a nice drun. The dow down. The s p 500 down nearly one full percent. And the nasdaq composite, 15,959, really the laggard today, down about 1. 5 . A bright spot in the markets so far has been a not so bright spot for the median term, talking regional lenders. But a bounceback for names like coamerica. Citizens financial up 5 . Two of the better performing regional banks. And nycb, you can see there, its up as well on the day. Now, there is one honorable and maybe even more so Honorable Mention<\/a> is a mega cap bank, jpmorgan base, the biggest lender in america, up about 1 . It hit a record intraday high in trading today, so if i was at a telestrator, i would draw a star next to that name. And speaking of record highs, bitcoin just did it. Surging past the 69,000 mark and setting a new record intraday high earliertoday, but we touched it, and it pulled back significantly, now at 65,366 for the largest krcrypt currency in our marketplace. Our next guest bought this stock back in2022 when it was under 200 a share, sold it at 705 after that. Hes now returning to his Value Investor<\/a> roots, betting on that trade from here. Lets bring in the chief Investment Officer<\/a> at greenwich investment. I kind of know why you got into vi nvidia in the first place and why you got out of it and why you wouldnt get back into it right now. Hi, dom. Thanks for having me back. First of all, i look for stocks that i think are undervalued and sometimes Growth Stocks<\/a> can be undervalued. In the summer of 2022, vnvidia was falling quite a bit, but i thought the stock was very undervalued, so i started buying it. I kept buying it all the way down to, you know, approximately 125 or so is where i got it at the lowest. But as you said, the stock has absolutely surged, and i started getting a little nervous, you know, for a couple of reasons. One, i think its now overvalued, and ive heard the arguments that its not overvalued, but i think it is. Especially if you look at it on a pricetosales basis. But also i have fairly large positions in etfs such as qqq, spy and smh. Nvidia is 26 of the smh. So i decided i didnt need to own the stock individually anymore. So its a Risk Management<\/a> decision. But youve got house money right now. Where would we roll that into . Cash is yielding 4 to 5 in savings accounts, even more so in certain parts of the treasury markets. Money market funds. Do you city there or deploy elsewhere, where there is value with the markets hovering near record highs . Im doing a little bit of both. I have a large position in treasury bills and still rolling those over, primarily very shortterm treasury bills that roll over 5 . And im happy to take that money with money that im not sure how to invest right now. But im also, as you said, looking more in the value area, especially in dividend days stocks. And my latest big buy was pfizer. Just a couple of days ago, i put some money into pfizer, because i think its a very undervalued stock. I think the stock has sold off primarily because we have overcome our fears about covid. But this is a company that has, you know, 112 drugs currently in the pipeline, and im betting that at least a few of those are going to hit pretty big. And its yielding well over 6 , and im happy to take that yield. Does that mean that youre getting into it despite the fact that the momentum clearly is with some of these glp1s within health care and pharma specifically . Were talking about names like ely legally, novo northis. Is that the betters play right now versus an ely lily . Im a longterm hold and buy investor. When i buy, i buy for the longterm, looking for good dividends over time. I think because of those glp1 drugs, many of these other pharmaceutical companies have run up a lot, and i would be hesitant to jump into them right now at their current prices. So i would rather go with Something Like<\/a> a pfizer thats been so oversold that everybody hates that theyre pretty much just giving the stock away, and im happy to take it at current prices. Thats the case, weve got the stocks that youre putting money into. Theres also a concern right now that markets could fall even further from here. Nobody has a crystal ball, but its not out of the realm of reason to have a bit of a pullback. If that were to hypothetically happen, how deep could it be, and what is the biggest concern you have for markets at these levels right now . I would say the economy is doing quite well. Im not too concerned about a recession any time this the immediate future. But the thing that worries me the most is the massive amount of government debt. Were at 34 trillion, and the interest on the debt, the interest cost is now up to 3 from 1. 6 just two years ago. And its going to go higher, because the fed keeps Interest Rates<\/a> at very high levels. And im very concerned that this debt, which is already the interest on the debt is already 14 of the budget and as big as what were spending on defense, is going to prevent us from doing a lot of other things. So i am afraid that congress, for example, may Start Talking<\/a> about increasing taxes again. That would be a negative for the stock market. Ive seen a big run primarily in the largecap sectors, so im avoiding those right now. I am buying etfs, but the etfs im buying are primarily in the midcap and smallcap areas. Except for a few individual stocks like pfizer, which of course is a larger cap stock. But other than that, im focusing more on areas that have not participated in the rally in the last year or so. They would participate hypothetically, academically perhaps, if the fed were to cut Interest Rates<\/a>. Those small and midcap type names. Do you feel as though thats something the fed needs to seriously consider . Do we need to take rates multiple times throughout the next several months . Absolutely. In my opinion, the fed should have started at the last meeting. They should have cut 25 basis points, perhaps every other meeting and get that fed funds rate down, because, you know, inflation is down. If you look at the last pce, its 2. 4 year over year. I dont think the fed needs to wait anymore, and i wonder why theyre waiting. Remember, Monetary Policy<\/a> works with a lag. So if they wait too long, they risk a recession. I would like to see the shorter end of that yield curve come down. I think longtell Interest Rates<\/a> may stay at current levels or go up a little. Thank you very much, sir. Well see you again soon. Thanks, dom. Tesla shares are under pressure again this afternoon after a suspected arson attack halts production at its giga factory facility in berlin. That stock is down 4 today, but the next guest has a hold on that stock and remains bearish on the auto sector overall. Joining me now is colin langan. Thank you very much for joining us this afternoon here. Lets talk about tesla first, because it is a driver of the market, if you will. This is a stock that really does have a lot of influence on certain parts of the Market Dynamic<\/a> right now. Do you feel as though this downward momentum is justified and how much further could it go . Yeah. I think in the near term, were talking about another year until at least the model two comes. So the stock really lacks a clear catalyst over that period. So theres still going to be some downward pressure the stock. But theres risk rewards to the name. So we are still equal weight on it. If thats the case for tesla, is it still best in breed with regard to the ev makers out there . The entire industry, every single one of them, from china to the u. S. , has seen some of those publicly traded stocks take a huge hit. Is there a Value Proposition<\/a> that comes to fruition because tesla is, in fact, the best that we have out here on the american side of things market cap wise, opposed to the ev names out this china these days . I mean, tesla does have a current leadership position here. In the near term, were talking about slowing deliveries. And, you know, i think from the broader industry, evs are a challenge, and that was the focus of our report this morning. Particularly from a regulatory challenge. Well see what happens with the white house proposed apparently changes coming to deregulations that areout there, which are quite aggressive and need more head winds for the traditional automakers. What is the trade right now within autos . Is there a place that stands out in your mind across the sphere . We are bullish on a handful of suppliers. I think its a company thats diversified on the Combustion Engine<\/a> and epower train. And theirle position how smooth that transition occurs. For traditional automakers, theres challenges. You have the regulatory push toward evs, consumer demand is slowing, and they need to smell more of these. The epa rules sell around 9 , which are at 3 today. You have prizing pressure thats going to put pressure on those stocks. Thats been a big driver of their profitability. All the indicators are that pricing is in decline. Partly driven by the high amount of capacity in the industry, which i dont think people are focusing enough on. The capacity side of things could be an overhang. Theres been this story thats developed about some of the automakers that are having a comparative advantage because of their tilt towards hybrid model vehicles, not straightup electric vehicles and not total internal Combustion Engine<\/a>. How important do you think that transition period will be for some of these manufacturers, given that hybrid dynamic thats developing and the demand picture picking up for hybrid vehicles opposed to pure ev . Well, i mean, having the capability of hybrid in your war chest is going to be payoff for companies. So i think ford, toyota, you know, stellantis, all have developed a hybrid option. But the reality is, if you look at the rules and probably even whats going to be the revised rules for 2032, youre still going to need a massive amount of evs regardless. So well see what happens. You know, particularly with the president ial election in november and how that changes, and maybe that will change the outlook for the needed evs. But its nice to have that hybrid. And ultimately, the rules are going to come down, because the targets for ev is so aggressive. So companies that have that hybrid option is probably going to be worth having. Colin, before we let you go, you brought up the election and possible rules ahead. How much do you look at or how do you try to forecast what future regulations look like, and how much does that play into yourmodels and valuation . Well, the headwinds around electric vehicles is one of the key drivers of our thegtive thesis. Weve seen this, if you go back years there were points where automakers were forced to sell small cars to hit fuel economy standards. So i think if you look at the media reports from people we talk to in d. C. , it sounds like the proposed biden changes seem for fairly benine, that youre going to keep that 67 , maybe allow some ev in that mix to get to targets. But were talking about targets that are quote aggressive and challenging to hit. Colin, thank you very much for the conversation. Thank you. Coming up on the show, heres one more look at the mystery chart of the day, a company finding a way to benefit from the tight Housing Market<\/a> as people stay in their homes for longer. Well reveal that name coming up next and speak with the ceo. Plus, three more names on deck with results. Were talking hangers, hackers, and head winds ahead. Were back after this. Rylee from rylees realty hi this listing sounds incredible. Lets check it out. Says here it gets plenty of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. its odd how in an instant things can transform. Slipping out of balance into freefall. Im glad i found stability amidst it all. Gold. Standing the test of time. Welcome back to the exchange. Shares of deck manufacturer, trex, is up 15 this year, despite concerns about an economic slowdown. Higher mortgage rates, one of the reasons why, as its led more people, not shockingly, to stay in their homes and maybe renovate them. Renovations make up more than 90 of trexs business, only 5 is actually from new home construction. For more now, im joined by trex ceo brian fairbanks. You may recall that we spoke, audience, to brian right after the Quarterly Earnings<\/a> report. So thank you very much for being in person with us. Thank you. So lets talk about the state of the Housing Market<\/a>. Everybody who watches cnbc knows what the current state of play is. But from somebody who has a big hand in how all of this is playing out, do you feel as though the Housing Market<\/a> is in a place where Interest Rates<\/a> are still a huge headwind for the market overall . What we talk less about in the Housing Market<\/a> is what are those people doing that already have the lower mortgages, already in their home, and it is difficult to make that next move up to the extra 500, 1,000 square feet because of the cost of the home, as well as the mortgage rate. So a lowcost way to add space to your home is by putting a deck on. It might be replacing an old wood deck thats falling apart. Generally get 10 to 12 years out of a wood deck or an allnew deck. This is a trend towards bringing that indoors out. Couches, ookware, tvs. So youre bringing that feeling oh of your living room to your deck. Have you felt as though its tough to comp against many parts of the pandemic lifestyle that have happened. People spent a lot of people on patio furniture, decking projects. If you could put for us in your expert vision the demand picture now versus what it was like in say 202122, what do you feel as though the trajectory still is . Is there still real momentum or is it starting to normalize . We saw explosive growth during the pandemic. We saw the growth and have held onto the growth. In 2023 we saw mid single digit increase. For 2024, weve gooded to 11 to 13 growth. So the industry, the higher interest and Outdoor Living<\/a> is normalized back to the areas where we expected it to be. Longterm, we expect to deliver on average 12 growth. Thats conversion of wood, converting them to composite. More railing on the decks and somed a ed adjacent products to it easier for the consumer. Part of the education process for me, because i told you the last time i did a decking project, was going through all the options and the cost benefit. The price points can vary from lumber through pvc and everything else. What is the education process like on your end . Because youre not necessarily selling to theend customer, but you have distribution out there. What do you tell customers about why the product you have out there compares better than the wood side of things and the pvc side and everything in between . The most important thing to do is make it easy for the consumer. We have product lines from 2 x the price of wood, all the way up to our signature decking line. So 2 a foot to 10 a linear foot. We want to make it easy so our consumer can find a contractor, see the products, or where can they get that material . We use our website for a lot of that education. People will start with that. Searching on composite decking or just decking, find the website, and well help walk them through that process. Even to the extent we have our own inside sales department. When we sew this information coming in, we can say is there something we can do to help you through this process . Based upon that phone and web traffic and how you see customer demand pick up or wherever it is, where do you think in america are you seeing the most activity and interest in your products, and where are things maybe not quite as robust and other parts of the u. S. . Its really balanced across north america where the Population Centers<\/a> are, or in the winter. So were going to get more snow in the northeast and midwest. So you dont build as many decks in those areas. So more of that business moves into the south and out west. But the season kicks off in april and runs through the end of october. And all of the indicators that we are seeing thus far, contractors have good backlogs, theyre ready, back to where they were prepandemic. So generally speak, about five to seven weeks. And were hearing strong indicators from those in our channel, on the pro channel, home centers, as well as the contractors. Now, before we let you go, from either your business perspective and or the macro market overall, where do you think Interest Rates<\/a> could be, should be to really kick things off for your business in the Housing Market<\/a> in general . I think well continue to perform well, even if rates stay where they are. I would expect over the next year or so, well see some easing within those rates. That will open up the affordability. And the nice part of that, as you have people moving up from the first home to the second home to the third home, that does drive repair and remodeling. Today, were seeing our tail wind coming from people staying in their home. But once they start moving, we go back to the old model where they look to repair the deck already on the house or add additional space. All right. Brian fair banks with trex, thank you very much, sir. Thanks. See you soon. Still ahead on the show, its been a rough year for tesla shareholders like elon musk. Up next, well explain why musks pain jf isefbezos gain. The exchange is back after this. Bringing you an elevated experience, tailormade for trader minds. Go deeper with thinkorswim our awardwining trading platforms. Unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. And sharpen your skills with an immersive Online Education<\/a> crafted just for traders. All so you can trade brilliantly. To build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. Mining partners. Technology partners. Education. Supply chain. Energy. What if one partner could do it all . That partner is ontario, canada. With all the Critical Minerals<\/a> to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. One of north americas largest i. T. Clusters. A fully integrated supply chain. All powered by one of the cleanest grids in north america. Ontario. Your innovation partner. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your Business Online<\/a> in minutes with the power of ai. With a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. Just start with a domain, a few clicks, and youre in business. Make now the future at godaddy. Com airo encore energy, americas clean energy company, now in production in south texas. Energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for Nuclear Energy<\/a> fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. Encore energy. Welcome back to the exchange. Lets get another check on t tesla, with shares down 11 . The stock is on pace for its worst week in a month. Those losses are having a big impact on elon musks net worth. Robert frank has more. Robert . Reporter dom, good to see you. For the first time in three years, jeff bezos is once again the worlds richest person. Bezos now has a net worth of 200 billion, just past the elon musk fortune of 198 billion. Musk lost 18 billion yesterday. Thats just one of the largest wealth losses ever in one day in dollar terms. Hes down 31 billion for the year. Meanwhile, jeff bezos, well, hes living his best life, moving to miami, spending time in his 400 foot yacht with his partner, laura sanchez, and saving taxes. He sold 8. 5 billion of amazon stock just in february. By moving to miami, he saved up to 600 million in taxes that he would have paid if he still lived in seattle. The big question is, what bezos plans to buy with all that cash. He had a year to sell that stock under that sale plan, and he told it just in a few weeks. So hes in a hurry to do something big. Speculation right now is around his possible interest in united launch alliance, thats the Rocket Launch Company<\/a> that could add to blue origin. Despite that massive share sale, amazon shares up over 18 this year. And dom, until we know what hes going to buy, he could park that money in a money market and earn more than a Million Dollars<\/a> a day just in interest. Thats how the rich get richer in this case here. Robert, lets take us through the dynamic. We understand whats happening with tesla and how it affects elon musk and amazon stock, how it affects jeff bezos. Can you take us through some of the movement that we are seeing in the worlds richest ranks . At one point, you know, the arnos were doing well for themselves, warren buffett, bill gates in that mix, as well. How has the market developed and how does it change the die nam nick the top ranks of the worlds billionaires . Om, its really an exciting time, because its a threeway race. Theyre all tied for first place right around 200 billion. So, you know, jeff bezos is at 200 billion, elon musk at 198. So with all of these stocks sort of playing a daybyday narrative, we could see them change a couple times of week. We havent seen that for quite a while. When musk took over for bezos, we had a brief period where bernard arknow was number one. But you have luxury, evs and online retail, as well as amazon, all vying to be the dominant force in drive thing wealth. So as much as we hear about ai, its really exciting to see these top three and where its going to shake out. We cant forget about space exploration. Robert frank, thank you very much. Now lets send it over to leslie for a cnbc news update. The creator of a software that can hack smartphones and turn them into surveillance devices can no longer do business in the united states. The Treasury Department<\/a> made the announcement today, banning the company which makes predator spy ware. Amnesty International Investigation<\/a> found predator was used to hack into the phones of journalists, human rights workers and politicians, including two members of song. And speaking of congress, senator john verasso wont be running for senate gop leader but will throw his hat in the ring for the number two position. Senators john thune and john cornyn will run to replace mitch mcconnell. The vote will happen at the end of the year. Iconic booth, there it is, featured in the final scene of the opranos sold at auction for a hefty 82,000. The own er put the booth up on ebay thursday to help pay for renovations. The winner will take home the seats, table, and the divider wall, reserved for the soprano family. Dom, back to you. I think tyler they have good ice cream there, too. Thank you very much for that. Disney is turning positive as ceo bob iger is confident the companys streaming offerings will be profitable by the Fourth Quarter<\/a> of this fiscal year. He made those comments at the Morgan Stanley<\/a> tmt conference. Those shares up about three quarters of 1 , spiking in the last few moments on that bit of news coming out of the tech media and telecom conference. Coming up, this oneyear chart looks a little like the good, the bad, and the ugly, with crowdstrike more than doubling, nordstrom basically flat. And jd. Com losing more than half its value the last year. Thats coming up next. Lets do some show and tell where we show you a chart and tell you the story. Target is moving higher on a big earnings beat with shares having their best day since spiking 17 in november in response to the last time the retailer reported results. In fact, the stocks up 50 sense then and only posted two weekly declines in the fast four months. Heres what the ceo told squawkbox earlier this morning about the road ahead for that retailer. Were not satisfied with where we are, and our theme today is all about a road map for growth, getting back to growing the top line, growing traffic, and making sure that we make target a Growth Company<\/a> again. We have seen a very resilient u. S. Customer. Despite inflationary headwinds, the uncertainty of the market overall, the consumer continues to shop. My names cody archie. And im erica. Cody and were first generation ranchers from central texas. Erica and because of tiktok, were able to show people from all over the world where their food and fiber come from. Cody we have dorper sheep and we have beef cattle for the sole purpose of going into the food chain. We use tiktok as a tool to inform people of what we do and why we do it. Theres just a plethora of knowledge and of information swapping going on there. Tiktok is helping us protect this way of life for future generations. Heres why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a builtn engine like google, but its pi and doesnt spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. And theres no catch. Its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. Welcome back. Were trading shopping, cybersecurity, and the supply chain in todays Earnings Exchange<\/a> with shares of nordstrom, crowdstrike, and jd. Com results on deck. Kkm financials jeff killberg is here with the trades. First up, lets talk nordstroms, shares up 30 in the past six years. But ubs seeing potential challenges ahead as consumers flock to discount retailers. But you believe nordstrom is a buy. Why . I do want to push back on that note, dom. It does make sense to be a buyer here. Lets look back at a fiveyear persp perspective. The consumer, still recovering, but down about 55 . So as i continue to see strength in the summer, this is a name we want to own. If you look at a forward pe ratio, its relatively inexpensive. So i think you want to own nordstrom. Also a featured stock yesterday. I think gina sanchez was talking about the bear case over there. So we have the bull and bear. Crowdstrike, shares down 7 today, but doubling over the past year as demand for cybersecurity continues to grow, the price target is 350 a share, reiterating the buy rating. What is your take for crowdstrike . You can be a buyer, but you have to be careful. We have testing that 50day moving average. Down about 21 today. But youre seeing a partnership roll out today. Weve been talking about dell and crowdstrike talking about how they can be implemented, their platform to help Dell Computers<\/a> and software out there. Its interesting, all these cybersecurity threats we are seeing become more sophisticated and more stealth. So i think when you talk about cybersecurity, we own palo alto, our preferred way to own this. Palo Alto Networks<\/a> has been outperforming crowdstrike. But theres a ton of momentum, but lock at this 50day moving average at 293, so be a buyer against it. Finally, jd. Com. Lots of head winds for the chinese economy, and Morgan Stanley<\/a> warns that increasing competition and discount sectors will keep pressure on jd. Its the microwith the competition. Whats the call on jd . I think you could be a buyer. This is a falling night. When you look at jd. Com compared to ali baba, which is about five times bigger than jd. Com. I have exposure to jd, but i get very careful, to your point. Whats the catalyst to own china . We have seen the continuing struggling economy over there. When you talk about being more than 50 off its 52week high, i know you had that chart earlier. This is the ugly. But i like ugly charts. I think theres opportunities in ugly charts, but you have to have your trading hat on. Thats the call on all three of those names. Jeff, while we have just a few moments left here, lets talk about the pullback were seeing in markets right now. The big take from you on whether or not theres still more downside ahead. You rolled me out on the one day where we have red on the screen. I think we have been overextended. We talk about relative strength indecision. So yes, you could argue that rsi levels, not just nvidia, but the overall s p 500 is overbought. But were seeing these conditions persist and well hear from powell says. But you know how i feel about markets, theyre not linear, they cant go straight up. So i think it is positive, i think the market would welcome us to see us test that 49, 50 level in the s p 500. Its just a back and fill concept weve seen, and it may be coming. Its something to lean into and buy and not run from. 4950 the level to watch. Jeff, thank you very much. See you soon. Still ahead on the exchange, daytime dining and battery bears. Well dig into two of todays big movers. Big movers. And im hearing different ways for colon screenaerovro us. Us. Keep it right here i asked for cologuard and did it my way. Cologuard is a oneofa kind way to screen for colon cancer thats effective and noninvasive. Its for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. False positive and negative results may occur. Ask your provider for cologuard. I did it my way shopifys point of sale system helps you sell at every stage of your business. With fast and secure payment. Card readers you can rely on. And one place to manage it all. Whatever the stage, businesses that grow grow with shopify. Welcome back. We have a market flash on albermarle shares, falling 12 . Pippa joins us with whats weighing on the shares of that big lithium company. It is the worth performer today on the s p, after albermarle announced up to a 2 billion Capital Raise<\/a> via convert able preferred notes, the market signalling that the Company Needs<\/a> cash and now to fund its operations. Telling me albermarle is aggressively outspending cash flow, and theyre raising capital to continue expending through what they perceive to be a temporarily weak period. This, of course, comes as lithium prices have all but collapsed, down 80 from 2022s high. The downturn is thanks to three key reasons. Battery producers are working through inventory, demand for electric vehicles has slowed, and new supply came on line faster than expected. Shares are now 65 below 2022s record high, with other producers, including Arcadium Lithium<\/a> and sqm seeing heavy losses. This trade was all the trend for a couple of years. Consensus, because of evs. So evs, taketh, giveth, taketh away. Etch would say when prices shot up more than 300 , they got too high. So that wasnt good for anyone. But the correction we have seen has taken the market by surprise. And of course, efv demand has slowed but not stopped. So the danger we see here is that when we see these massive swings, it changes the Capital Funding<\/a> requirements for these companies, and then now if prices drop to below whats sustainable for the miners, then theyll stop spending and well have a supply drop. So thats the problem. So i think somewhere in maybe the 35,000 per metric ton range is what experts say is the middle ground. So right now were below 15,000. For a time we were at 80,000. So this has been on a wild ride. Pippa, thank you very much. Coming up, can Million Dollar<\/a> bacon take the place of Silver Dollar<\/a> pancakes . Breakfast, brunch, lunch, chain, first watch is banking on it. Well talk to the ceo about their experience. Thats coming up next. As we head to break, the dow falling to session lows, down about 345 points, the worst levels of the day, down nearly 1 . Well keep an e eyon that and be back after this break. En bigger legs on a turkey rude. Who are you . Im an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this Smart Fitness<\/a> mirror. Im also mr. Leg day. 1989 anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. I go through a lot of pants. Before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment<\/a> objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Glp1 drugs used in weight loss treatments stand out as the biggest global blockbuster, but these treatments require cumbersome injections. With lexarias patented oral delivery technology, early studies suggest a better way. Lexaria bioscience. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Perhaps you know me as, the kung fu panda. Ah, youre adorable. Huh. Oh, whah youre probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. But what if we told you its possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75 a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers . You can get 2 unlimited lines for just 30 each a month. All on the most reliable 5g mobile network, nationwide. Wireless that works for you. Get the new Samsung Galaxy<\/a> s24 on comcast business mobile. Save big with up to 500 off an eligible samsung device with a qualifying tradein. Dont wait call, click or visit an xfinity store. Welcome back to the exchange. Shares of star bucks are lower despite the end of a union proxly battle at the coffee giant. Kate rogers has more on that story. Good afternoon. Hey there, dom. Good to see you. The Strategic Organizing Center<\/a> confirming this morning it is withdrawing its three director nominees ahead of starbucks an you will announced last week that the two had agreed to work on a framework for collective bargaining. Starbucks put good faith effort nonunionized stores did have access to, including credit card tipping and tenured raises for some worker. In a statement the s. O. C. Said, this agreement represents a potentially huge shift in starbucks Labor Relations<\/a> strategy. Since the announcements we had meaningful dialogues based on these discussions we believed that buy and large shareholders are optimistic the company is committed to these changes in good faith and intends to repair its relationship with its workers which will enhance performance and shareholder value. Starbucks said in part, starbucks has always been committed to doing the right thing importantly for our partners who are the heart of our business. This was closely watched as it was one of the biggest fights of the season and s. O. C. Enlisted advisers reserved for activist. Fascinating back and forth there, dom. Seems this fight is dropped for now. Kate, i want to call your attention now and pift a little bit to a union labor story. Youve been following this one. This is the dartmouth Mens Basketball Team<\/a>. Actually voting to unionize earlier this hour. What can you tell us about the latest there on College Athletics<\/a> and unionization . This is a big one, dom. As you said, dartmouth Mens Basketball Team<\/a> voting 132 in favor of unionizing. So this is the first time in Ncaa Division<\/a> i history that a vote like this has been passed. A big step in a case that could wind up killing the ncaas amateurism model and its likely, of course, other schools are watching and will follow suit as players are looking to get a piece of the ncaas billion dollar pie. In a statement, dartmouth maintained that classifying these students as employees is unprecedented and inaccurate. This will have big implications Going Forward<\/a> for College Athletes<\/a> and will be very closely watched. Kate rogers, thank you for both of those stories. We appreciate it. Well go back to the restaurant side of things. Shares of breakfast lunch first watch are down. A revenue beat companying projecting flat to negative traffic growth but also planning to open more than 50 new locations later on throughout the year. Joining me now is first watch president and ceo chris for more on that story. Chris, thank you very much for being here on the exchange. I wonder if you might be able to tell us a little more about the concept of the restaurant for those who dont know it very well. Even in new jersey, theres only one thats kind of close by to where we are here at cnbc. Yeah. So, were a breakfast, brunch and lunch only concept. We have been around for 40 years. But we know we have pretty low awareness. Were not really known as a chain. People think were a local restaurant and we love that. Only open from 7 00 a. M. To 2 30 p. M. We have been at this for a long time. High growth concept. We went public in 2021. So, we have been here for a while. Were the leader in the space. We were an early mover in this daytime dining category thats really been the only growth segment in the Restaurant Industry<\/a>. There havent been, in my mind, many of these kind of daytime only restaurants that are pure play publicly traded. Youre one of the handful out there right now. What exactly is the Growth Strategy<\/a> . What exactly are you targeting, geography, demographic wise . About what type of customer youre trying to cater to to power that growth level that youre trying to achieve. Yeah. I mean, i think its taking advantage of a number of longterm Consumer Trends<\/a> that weve been in advance of and now right the middle of. And so one is certainly the growth in the brunch and breakfast segment. You know a lot of people talk about us being open only 7 00 a. M. To 2 30 and two day parks. Most restaurants are open two day parts lunch and dinner. We happen to take on two different ones. Theres less competition in that space. Its much more fragmented segment. Theres also a brunch revolution happening in the u. S. And were taking advantage of that as well. Thats been going on for a while. With breakfast being the only growth segment in the Restaurant Industry<\/a>, yet still 70 of breakfast occasions being eaten at home, we just see a tremendous amount of white space for us. And we, you know, have again more than 500 restaurants in 29 states. And the interesting thing is that we perform well in a number of different markets. Our top restaurants span 20 states and 10 dmas. We have proven our portability and proven the consumer is interested in an offering like ours, as unique as it is. As far as who we go after, we have a very, very broad demographic profile of our customer, multigenerational, higher household income, higher educated, but its a consumer who appreciates quality ingredients, prepared well, at a value. And so, we dont have heat lamps, deep fryers or microwaves. We use cage free eggs. Thats another Consumer Trend<\/a> we feel like were aligned with perfectly. W. Profit margin wise, where is the more attractive part of the day . Is it tilting more towards the breakfast side or more towards the lunch side . Yeah. I mean, not just for us but breakfast has been known as the most profitable segment in the Restaurant Industry<\/a> and certainly if you think about it, eggs and toast and potatoes and things like that have great margins. And so but its also a lot of breakfast items that you cant really make at home like you can with dinner. So going out for breakfast and the social occasion around brunch is something that the consumer has been leaning into for years and has been growing. And we do it at a 16. 50 check average. So its a very approachable occasion. 16. 50 for the average check is pretty big. Also, youre a private equity backed company. Advent invitational, still a major shareholder for your company. Whats the conversation like between you and your private equity owners about just what you think the plan is Going Forward<\/a> about achieving those growth plans . You know what, advent has been a great partner of ours. They invested in 2017. Theyre a great strategic partner. They helped us tremendously along the way, certainly with our ipo journey. And that partnership is such that were fully aligned on our growth and where we can see this company going. So, we have a path towards 2,200 restaurants. Theyre aligned with us on it. And we have the resources necessary to get there. All right. And before we let you go, chris, really quickly, your favorite menu item . Oh, man, im a traditionalist. I love the traditional breakfast with eggs and bacon and potatoes. But ill splurge on one of our decadent items like a stuffed french toast. But you can find me having the traditional breakfast. Thank you very much. Please update us soon. All right. Will do. Thank you. Well, that does it for the exchange. Power lunch is coming up next. Courtney reagan is just over there getting ready. Ill join her on the other side of this commercial break. Ontario has all the partners you need to make the electric vehicle of the future. With one of north americas largest i. T. Clusters. 65,000 stem graduates per year. And all the Critical Minerals<\/a> to make electric vehicle batteries. Ontario. Your innovation partner. Theres no surefire way to prevent accidents at work. So talk to your agent about workers comp insurance from pie. Or visit pieinsurance. Com and get a quote. Safety first, then pie insurance. Welcome to power lunch. Alongside courtney reagan, im dominic chu. We are watching the markets right now at session lows. Were getting back some of that record rally this time around. Shares of apple, by the way, falling once against this time on concerns of its sales of iphones in china. Check out these numbers, apple down roughly 11 this year compared to a 6 gain, courtney, for the nasdaq 100 large gap overall. 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