Which is red again too. A few moments ago it was green. This is the big story. Questions about whether its topped, an unwind is coming. We havent seen you in a few weeks. Youve been trimming this name like many others. Yes. We owned this name for a long time. When a stock doubles a relatively big position in three months its prudent to trim. We trimmed. Its okay we still own the stock. It has the perfect set up right now. Buyers with a lot of cash flow, concentrated positions. Too little capacity, too much demand. We think it theres nothing to stop it in the near term. But from a longterm perspective its prudent to take profits we think. Price target to 1200 from 900. As the stock has elevated the chase has continued on the street. You keep getting price targets going up up and away. Im wondering how you view the stock, if you view that as a moment that was 100 higher on friday, and then the reversal, whether we need to Pay Attention to this stock more than any other in the market. Unfortunately i do think we need to Pay Attention to it more than any other in the market. Now having answered your question i will say at some point nvidia is going to roll over and correct but not something worse than that. Bears point out the multiple, 35 times forward earnings saying its expensive for a chip stock, this is a chip stock growing 50 year over year. Thats going to come to a stop, just not any time soon. At some point you get the double and triple ordering but theres no indication of that right now. If there is a correction, 5, 10 , i expect the dip buyers to come in on nvidia. If you owned nvidia, amy talked about trimming it because you owned it for a while. I owned it eight months its up 100 in that eight months. At some point you have to trim these. Im at 14 in the chip space not because im a hero but the chip space has rocketed. At some point you have to think about taking money off the table. For me the trigger is going to probably be cpi tomorrow. We think its coming in a little hot but as long as its in line with expectations, the trade continues. If its too hot maybe thats the time to take off some money. Im wondering who else is in danger of any kind of rollover from the chip trade thats been on fire not just the smh which is reflective of the trade itself but supermike crow up 350 . You have arm and amd up more than 100 . Taiwan semis up 53 . Broad com is up 53 . Theres others on my list. Do we need to look down saying that one could be in trouble, that looks like its susceptible. Maybe the a. I. Halo got ahead of the fundamentals . How do you look at this . You own taiwan semi, right . Reporter yes. To amys point from last year its up 50 . I trimmed a little off, which was prudent because it got to be too big a position. Its an easy answer to your question. Go and look at nvidia reported after the close, just go and look at what the top performers, what the stocks that did the most on the day after they reported, and that will tell you whats more susceptible than others. I think some are clearly ahead of themselves. Some clearly have no valuation support. I dont know that nvidia is there. Forget about what the stock has done, 35 times forward. And jim had it right. If youre going to keep growing your earnings 50 but they wont keep growing 50 . Thats the issue. The points is where do you get off . I think theres a lot of people that want to come in that havent bought yet. Nvidia. Yes. I dont know if the floor is 600 or 700. Here i own very little on it. I bought it on a dip last week. For me its not that important to my portfolio but taiwan semi is. They outperformed, expecting stronger growth market. Its a market multiple. If you own nvidia you have to look at taiwan semi, because guess whos manufacturing those chips for them and the others . So theyre basically the supplier in an arms race. They supply to all of them. You have to get a major part of their production. But also asml we were just talking about it right before this, theyve just got new products coming out. They will be arming meta and microsoft and intel. So amy has owned it for a while, i own it. I think the future is bright there. But its not cheap. Go out a year and a half its 25 times. This is a question about momentum which is why i saved joe for last your whole investing strategy professionally is around momentum, obviously. Yes. If you look at whether were in early stages, early innings if you will of a momentum rollover, where youre going to have money going into the laggards, meta, amazon, salesforce, broad com, uber microsoft are all lower. Apple, tesla, alphabet are all higher. Youre all over the list of the biggest winners since november 1st, whether its your amd or your crowd strike or your palantir, broad com, salesforce, aris ta thats just for startings. You have all of these holders and all are up from the most recent bottom. Yes. That is why i have the overlay of quality on top of momentum. Exactly for the sbienvironment t youre in now. When momentum rolls over you dont have exposure to the single factor. Let me speak to whats going on right now in the market. The concern i have is this is the next several weeks going into the Federal Reserve meeting. One of the more dangerous periods of 2024 for investors. Theyre going to attempt to make decisions based on the Price Performance of the past. No new fundamental information, were past the earning seasons and right now the technicals are in control of the market. Its obvious momentum has broken. Look at nvidia you have to know your technicals in nvidia, the low last week was 834, the low this morning is 841. So thats a support area. But the technicals are going to be in control for the next several weeks and the ntechnicas dont set up well. What youre also witnessing you dont see a lot of broadening out with momentum. Overnight japan broke down. Have we seen crypto break down . Thats arguably the hottest area of momentum in the market right now. So i think theres more to go in cooling off this white hot momentum that weve had so far year to date and i just urge the viewers to understand that the process of correcting momentum is technically oriented. Thats a dangerous place to be when you dont have fundamentals. This market, for all of the momentu momentum froth exuberance euphoria has had the ability to selfcorrect without falling apart. Spacs corrected, nfts corrected. All this other nonsense selfcorrected so maybe you have the momentum names ahead of themselves. But you have the rotation. Money coming out of nvidia maybe its finding a home in apple or maybe finding a home in tesla or alphabet. Lets not lose sight of the fact that the s p 500 small caps has outperformed s p. Is that new high for the equal weight s p 500 . Did you realize one fifth of that index hit a new 52week high recently. So its not like youve had a vacuum. You had the stocks at the top go down and nothing else is shoring up the foundation. Yeah. Well i thats the point. The broadening is happening. Its possible for the rest of the market to come up to meet where the magnificent seven or fabulous five, what are they are. Its possible to come up and meet that performance. I think its happening. I do see the broadening. I mentioned it in equal weight and small caps. But i dont see the breakdown were talking about here in terms of momentum. I see nvidia up two and a half percent the last week. Thats pretty strong momentum. If question look at friday sure it was down but thats one day. Talking about the reversal from friday which was powerful and had follow through its just one day. Im not disagreeing with that. It is just one day and one day doesnt a trend make. When a stock like nvidia rolls 100 bucks in a day. Thats something that gets your eyes wide open. Let me say this quickly. 100 points in one day, i got you. But also equally strange is that it was going up 2 every day for two weeks. That was strange, that was odd. That needed to be corrected. I think we focus too much on the big stocks, the dollar Price Movement rather than percentage movement and away from nvidia on friday. And away from perhaps even meta. Meta is down 20 bucks today. I bought on the flush but its down 4 on the highs its nothing relative to where its come from. I think the momentum is dictated by cpi and then ppi on thursday and right now setting the stage to be more dovish. Its only natural. Joe is looking to february for the correction. The market has to consolidate at some point. No matter what the tailwinds are it has to take a breather. Sure valuations are extended but for others theyre not extended. A breather is a lot different than a slumber. A breather means you take a rest and you dont go into a full longterm slummer in these names and you have things like alphabet and apple. Tesla has its own issues, too. Alphabet for example, are things really that bad . The narrative in the news so negative every week on this. Saying although sentiment is not as dire as the markets mood around meta in october of 2022, we hear ourselves urging investors to stay the course and have trust that leadership will innovate through the challenge. Its hard to get negative on apple and alphabet but weve heard only negative sentiment on those names. This now theyre working. If they continue to work you dont think about nvidia every day. Quite as much. Theres so much around these stocks. Look at the biotech the last couple of weeks. Its done well. There are other areas of the market to focus on. I do think if apple continues to correct it becomes more interesting but still trading at a 25 times multiple for a stock with almost no growth and a very high market capitalization. They have the buy back to support them. So it puts them in a different category. I would look for this to broaden out, the market to broaden out. If cpi comes in as i expect and inflation continues to wain, that will support the market. But i encourage people to look beyond the maf gnificent seven today. Wolf goes to 5,300, quote, shifting to the no landing scenario. The bull still has plenty of fight, barrens. Ubs, it appears the support of the equities still remains in place. Nobody is ready to give up the ship because you could have a momentum reversal. Without question i think were all saying the same thing. I think were trying to guide the viewers towards whats going on right now in this environment. Its clear. I dont think anyone has changed their overall bias towards 2024 being a positive year for risk assets. You have the conditions, fundamental conditions set in place from 2023 from the Federal Reserve to coming out of the earnings recession. To innovations reflected in earnings, witnessed from artificial intelligence. No one is saying that. I think what were acknowledging is the price action on friday in nvidia, the price action in other stocks which has appreciated the same extent. You can make the same argument. Eli lilly, amd, all stocks up significantly yeartodate that are finally experiencing a much needed and healthy correction. And i think thats full stop. Thats what we right now thats what this is about. It doesnt mean its an Inflection Point but doesnt mean it ends in 24 hours. To your point, amy will back me up when we worked together over 20 years ago, i dont think a year went by where people said, Intuitive Surgical look how overvalued that stock is. Thats what theyre saying now. Theyre saying in two years i should have bought intu tiff surgical back then. Thats why i bought more. It was maximum activity. Talking about google, a president ial election where advertising picks up. And one of the two winners in a. I. Right now, being microsoft. And selling at a discount to the market when they added to it. Those are when you have to take the opportunities. Do we think apple found footing here . Yes. Got back up now almost to 173. Youve had finally some buying in that name. You had buying because capital is moving out of the hot momentum area, the winners if you would, and moving to apple and its looking to apple and utilizing apple as a port, so to speak, a source of where almost a defensive element and the element of listen we know this company buys back a significant amount of their shares, raise a tremendous amount of cash flow, so its nothing more than a rotation. With 25 times earnings. I want you to be right, joe. I have a position. If it goes down to 160 i buy more. The technicals this is your domain, look a little ugly. They look lousy. Yes. I look at the 200 day about to roll over. The idea the trend on the 200 day would go negative in a rising market is ugly. The 50 day wants to cross the 200 day and you dont want that. Lets hope youre right. I want you to be right. You look at these names, the ones i mentioned to you and say, im most worried about x stock that tesla. I know but thats but thats one that has had no momentum. Im talking about ones that have had a lot, gone up a lot and youre all over the trades. Youre saying palantir is up 67 im just using it as an example not saying anything, its up 67 . Theyre deemed to be an a. I. Player and winner. Crowd strike up 80 . If i worry about the momentum trade i worry about the strongest pillar of strength, and thats nvidia. To me nvidia tells you everything about the momentum trade itself. You just answered the question. If nvidia has lost the momentum in the near term youre telling me that arm is going too and amd and these other names too. Correct. Its all part of a universal momentum factor. And in 2024, the momentum factor was up nearly 20 yeartodate. You had strategies that were allocating towards the momentum factor and saying okay in the universe of momentum which are the stocks that qualify as strong candidates in momentum in 2024. Were going to buy those stocks. Its Factor Investing at its best. Nvidia is the litmus test thats what were saying . Without question. All these other names you asked this before when i asked i wanted to state this more dramatically. Dont you own kwqualcomm . I am. I think bigger point i want to make, scott you were making it before, outside of tech, chips, things are starting to work again. Things ive been known and ridiculed on the show a little bit for, i get it, things like gm is working, qualcomm, citi group, things like the airlines. Theres a lot of stuff. Know you couldnt get through anything without mentioning cleveland clinic. Couldnt get through the first block. Its do canning great. If were going to worry about nvidia, im with you, joe, we can take comfort that the rest of the market is doing well. Listen, i think youre misunderstanding im not disagreeing with you. I know. What im trying to communicate is im just trying to define the environment. Okay. Youre making a fundamental argument. Yes. And i see everything you see in the fundamentals. But what i am telling you is that if nvidia is going to continue to have negative momentum, then Everything Associated with momentum is going to correlate with that and move in the same direction irrespective of the fundamentals. Absolutely. Just to be clear im not disagreeing. Im adding to what youre saying. Let me tell you how i look at that. I look at that as opportunity. Im not buying because they have momentum you are. Youre in bitcoin. Thats the one thing. Without a doubt. Thats the one thing. But thats my investment. Thats the fundamental. Doctor i cut back on everything to get my health in order. Im only having three drinks a night. Its not momentum. Its not momentum. Momentum is there. What im buying is the marketing prowess of fidelity and blackrock. Lets be clear thats the epitome of the momentum trade is bitcoin. Without a doubt but im not buying the momentum. You know why i added today . Because it goes up . Had. No. Because uk approved it for funds. Thats why i added to it today and some moron on squawk box talking about using it to buy gold sneakers. But you wouldnt be doing it if it didnt have this renewed momentum behind it. For whatever reason. Im glad you can read my mind but youre not doing a great job. When it had i dont understand why youre so defensive. Im not, im trying to straighten you out. We dont have enough time left in the block. When bitcoin reached 60,000 before i didnt own any of it, okay. This is the time i own it. Again, because you have every fund out there. Every fund company out there saying you have to buy bitcoin thats as fundamental to me what do you mean you didnt own any of it before 60000. Im saying 60,000 when it hit years ago. I thought you were talking about when it got back to 60 now. Every fund company in the world is rushing to market with a bitcoin product. Thats why i own it. Im betting fidelity and black rock putting millions of dollars. If it had just momentum i wouldnt own it. So thats why i own it. If it goes down 15 , would you sell it . No. Because ill tell you why. Because you still have the marketing of it. If it goes down 15 , i may not buy more, i have enough its a speculative position, which i keep tight but as long as that keeps happening. Now you have Wealth Managers saying okay because the s. E. C. Approved it. I can put it in my clients portfolios. You can allocate towards it. I need to get to washington with breaking news. Megan at the white house were learning more about the president s budget for this year, arent we . Reporter thats right. The Biden Administration is proposing a 2025 budget today that would spend about 7. 3 trillion. Thats a 5. 5 increase from last year. In order to have more money to devote to social security, reduce the cost of child care and offer more loans to small businesses. The white house expects to raise 9. 5 trillion, an increase from last year, with a hike on taxes in the corporations and the wealthy. The white house sees the deficit falling to 1. 8 trillion next year. As the deficit falls the cost to service the debt is on the rise. That reflects in part an expectation by the white house that the longterm ju neutral rate has risen. Those costs will rise from there throughout the decade. Overall, biden is proposing a trillion dollars for discretionary nondefense spending and a stepped up 9 billion in defense spending. Were going to take a quick break. Amy has made a lot of moves since we saw her in february. Well document those. Along with our calls of the day. Well do it next. Personalized Financial Advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. I can make this work. It can help you reach them with confidence. No wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. Ameriprise financial. Advice worth talking about. 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