Hitting twoplus year highs. Is there more room for the name to run . One of our traders lays out the case. Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight tim see your, courtney garcia, dan nathan, and guy adami. It was oracle and nvidia that caught our eye, both surging and highlighting strength across generations of big tech. Oracles pop after earnings last night bringing gains to 20 . Its not the only veteran in rally mode. Dell, hpe, ibm trading to alltime highs. After a twoday pause, nvidia jumping more than 7 , closing just off its record high. Meta recouping yesterdays losses. So, is this a case of in with the old,in with the new, too . Guy . I like that. Apparently so. And we play this game a lot, but you know, with the move in the bond yields, up to 4. 15, if you told me last night, whats going to happen to these stocks, theyre all going to sell off especially the reversal we saw on friday. Clear that didnt happen. However, to answer your question, you know, one thing i think weve done a good job on are these old tech names. We had ben on the show on march 4th, he talked abdel. T the good news, thats a stock you want to look at. Ibm, weve been steadfast. Our Senior Executive producer, i think that was the i in his anagram. Acroacronym. Acronym. Old tech is a place where you can rationalize valuation for those names as opposed to the other high flyers. Theres an a. I. Undercurrent to the quote unquote old tech names. Absolutely. Nvidia has been the big winner there, but what people need to realize, youre going to need hardware. If we actually want to use a. I. , you need a device thats enabled with a. I. To actually use it. After the pandemic, everyone got their computers, but it takes a threeyear cycle for everyone to get new ones. Just in general, people need new computers, buff overt over the decade, you are going to need one. Guys cycles 15 years. Tim, you heard that before . Somewhere. Super cycle. It seems to work. Im just saying. Listen, i get what youre saying, too, and that is going to be the next iteration of this trend. Everybody needed the gpus, thats why the semiconductors have gone this way. What dell and the hyper scalers are telling you, it is a verticalized poperation here. I would expect that demand kind of gets settles out a little bit. There was an article in information starting the day talking about how google and the other cloud players are kind of tamping down expectations for the commercialization of some of these products. I think that is going to be a story that clearly hits the tech market at some point this year. And that is a story about expectations. And its a story about how excited people are about some very crowded investments, but again, on a day like today, when you saw the reversal on friday of some of the semina names, we were all a little bit surprised they didnt follow through a bit more, and to see nvidia come back the way it did, it tells you they are just not done yet. Theyre just not done yet coming for these names. Well, i look at oracle and, again, this is old tech, a company, though, thats transformed itself over the last few years. They really have. And they now if you look at the strength of the numbers they put out yesterday, not only where they like a lot of companies showing margin enhancement, more efficiency, everybodys got the year of efficiency, by the way, see a. I. And see what really happens, thats part of the multiple here, but the core businesses across two, three business lines, rpo, oci, the oci gets you more into the a. I. Space. And i think it gets back to a space where people are looking for the names that have multiples that they can get behind. We can question all day long, right or wrong, on what you want to pay for amd or nvidia, but when it gets back to some of these older tech names, the valuations are a lot more palatable, if i may. And so, there are a few tech names, i think its important to point out, really havent been part of the party. Look at cisco. Ciscos been kind of dead in the water. Hasnt been a disaster, but its a case of a company thats been trying to transform itself. I know this story, because im long, and its really lagged. And the software and security dynamic of their business, which is high margin and recurring revenue, and annuity dynamics, have really not gone so well. Intel, we talk about them all the way, not cheap, by the way. Certainly on a multiple. Maybe underowned, which is why i own it. I think theyre starting to come through on a product base. Its a fascinating time. When i dont think that a lot of the market is all that expensive, and yet, if you look at the top of the tree and those names are very expensive. I was going to say intel, too. Its not that exciting. When they reported in late january, they missed, they guided lower, the stock was down 12 in one day. Its been kind of range bound here. And i think your point is a good one. Its expensive right now on current estimates. If those estimates start to go higher again, look at taiwan semi, the beneficiary of the chips act, building plants in the u. S. If you just look at a name like qualcomm, we mentioned this a couple months ago, again, a name, if pcs are not great, if handsets are not great, and you have to wait for a refresh cycle for a. I. To be on the devices, qualcomm just ran in front of it. You want to look at a name where a lot of the end markets are not doing well, but maybe they have the manufacturing angle this year and should play catchup, but again, that only happens if this whole thing is broadening out a bit, and you guys have all made the case that it has. Its broadening out. I think it is. Heres a question one year time frame, intel or nvidia . Ah, probably intel, to be honest with you. I dont know how a company that encapsulates so much of the excitement in and around the chip space and is clearly the beneficiary of all the orders, has gained a trillion and a half dollar market cap in 18 months, intels left for dead, thats where i would put my money. Adobe, i think its thursday, they report. Quarter of a trillion dollar company, a huge runup into 21, fell off a cliff like everything else. People are going to talk about this as an a. I. Name, have they figured it out . Reasonable valuation. Of course, the problem is, its had a huge run, and it is historic for their earnings releases, and then selloffs after, but if they can catch a bid, then maybe we are broadening out to the extent that everybody thinks. Is that the name of the game, in order to broaden out, you have to be part of a. I. . No. Banks arent part of a. I. Technology, sorry. Okay yes and no. Weve seen a lot of Software Names that are just Software Names. Look at crowdstrike, look at a lot of the names that have had big, big days. That, to me, has been the progr progression. You followed semis, then software, then megacap techs. Are we done with tech . I wanted to talk about something else. What do you want to talk about . Tim, its your show, you know t you were asking me about tech, but guy started okay, see . Interest rates and cpi. And i okay, i thought did you i thought i was in trouble. Its all tied in, i mean, if i told you thats where i was going. What would you think the Market Reaction would be . I could have tied it back to tech. Maybe i was too honest here, but the cpi number wasnt great for markets. No. And it was a fascinating day, because rates went higher. I think were still at a twoyear uptrend on long rates. Every time it tests the bottom end of that channel, its bouncing. If you looked at what we got in terms of services inflation, owners equivalent rent dynamics, i think june is 50 50. It was 75 to 80 a few weeks ago, and yet equities dont really seem to care. Thats what makes a day like today fascinating, because i think there are parts of the market that really love this dynamic, and i think banks are near the top of that list. At what point should we start caring that maybe that rate cut is beingpriced out of june and that you only have the back half of the year to get those accomplished . I think were going to need to see how the next couple reports come. At this point in time, right, we did see an increase in cpi. The markets didnt care about that, because it wasnt a huge increase, but core inflation actually came down, super core inflation actually also came down, which is a good thing. But one of these data points isnt going to make or break things. As much as we like inflation to come down, it doesnt work like that. But if this continues to be a trend, absolutely that would be a problem. I dont think were there yet. Neither do the markets, so, were going to have to see how it continues. Again, weve stopped talking about the yield curve because clearly the market doesnt care, but liz young, who is on that great show Halftime Report from time to time. Also on some podcast. She is, actually. But she does all the different cnbc shows except this one. She tweeted earlier that today weve actually surpassed 7980 in terms of longest duration of an inversion in the yield curve, which i think should matter, but clearly, the market doesnt care. And at some point, again, its not the its the steepening where people should care and we havent gotten there. We got close, but we havent gotten there. And here we sit at 45 basis points or so, and seemingly off on our merry way. Its not just the u. S. China internet stocks are breaking out. The crane shares china etf jumping 7 this week. Its on track for its best week since last september where it gained 8 . The kweb now up almost 16 from its late january low. So, is this momentum a sign of sustainable rebound under way . Have we seen the worst in terms of the indices in china, tim . Thats certainly how ive been positioning. And ive been positioning on some levels for this for maybe a year, a year and a half, but i do think, especially when folks are allocating for, you know, 12, 15, 18 months, even out two years, the dynamic, in china are really interesting. China is going through a change that we never expected theyd go through, even though thats what happens when your demographics are as poor as chinas are. Yeah, i said that. We talked about the 80 billion of the 195 billion of market cap of baba being in cash. The top level funds who have exposure to china, historically, and that includes msci global, are as underweight economy that as theyve been in ten years, and thats before the ashares were put in the index. Theyre below a level before a significant part of the index forced them to own china. Theres no theres nobody that owns this market. Theres a lot of reasons for it. And i still dont feel like i can have High Conviction that the governments my friend here. But i look at some of the big internet names in china, their version of the mag seven, and theyre interesting its fab four, bro. Everything that tim said makes a lot of sense. You think about how bad the data is now, and you think about the export data thats been really good i think you want to flip that narrative upside down a little bit. To me, everything we talked about last night about tiktok and the banning and the lack of our Digital Companies being able to be over there, i think thats the stuff that stays pretty murky for some time to come. You mentioned president xi and how he feels about their domestic champions, well, theyve already taken them out to the wood shed i. If i look at a name like baba, obviously they dont want things to go pear shaped, theyve gone bad enough, if theres one stock on my entire board that i think could double over the next year, it would probably be alibaba. And you put your b where your z zebra was. Dans a little hes a little selfconscious, not selfconscious, he feels like his acronym doesnt get enough attention. Your blicep gets a lot of attention. And guys clam is trending. Im sure its trending. Trending all over the place. Real quick. If we can throw an fxi chart up. We said in late january, folks, here is your opportunity. Got down to 21, the same levels we saw october of 2022, go back ithink it was 08, the last time it was down there. We said, this is it, the risk reward sets up well. I know it hasnt exploded to the upside, but its done okay. Im with the guys on alibaba. Im sure courtney feels the same way. This thing in a downtrend for four years, its had 45 to 50 rallies seven or eight times. Yeah, im completely onboard with that. Weve really been making sure that we have a stake in emerging markets, and i think its interesting, because when you look at Fund Managers have been underweight china, were seeing that from investors, too. Blackrock made an emerging market fund x china because people arent willing to go in there, even though they are onboard with the idea of emerging markets. And it is a good portion of some of those funds, but i think because of the risk reward, people are so out of it right now, and i think theres a lot of money that will go back in. I think you want to have a piece of that in your portfolio. David reedle is a former sound brothers analyst based in asia. David, great to have you with us. I think whats not getting that much attention is what happened last week at the National Peoples congress, and the efforts that china might actually get accomplished to boost consumer spending, which could be huge for a lot of these stocks. Absolutely. I think its really gone under the radar that there is a generational change potentially in china where they are planning to considering liberalizing what is called the household registration program. So, all these hundreds of millions of Migrant Workers that live and work in the cities really live in the shadows. They cant own property, they cant send their kids to local schools, they cant Access Health care, any of the other social benefits, because their household registration is back home in their little town in rural china. So, they are talking about changing that, which would unleash a huge amount of consumer demand for household goods, forapartments, for all kinds of things. So, i think that if china gets that right, it starts to become investable in a way that i dont think it has been in the last five or ten years. At this point, david, would you say that the Chinese Government itself or the u. S. Government is the bigger risk to chinas stocks . I think the u. S. Has kind of taken itself a little bit out of that risk. They played a game of chicken with beijing a couple years ago about audit and s. E. C. And registrations and writ listings, and china blinked. You know, china has being willing to inflict a lot of pain on their own market through the attacks on big tech and so on and so forth in the last few years. I think if beijing backs away a little bit and gives people confidence theyre not going to interfere, china could be in for a multiyear run. David, its tim. Great to have you. Youve really youve caught different pieces of this. You were very bearish on china in october of 22. Great to have you back on what looks like a pivot, and if theres anyone im listening to on em, its you. I get back to the technical dynamics, we heard about chinas plunge protection team. Their government is going in and buying etfs and theyre stimulating their market much in the same way we did here. What do you think about that, and i talked before about positioning for global investors, big, big investors if they change this much are going to change, i think, the return profile of the asset class. I think thats exactly right. Remember what china has going for it. They control 70 of their eco economy. Theyve definitely got money to spend in beijing to support different parts of the economy they want to support. Lets not hope that they put their thumbs on the scale too much to really turn things over. But my clients have been out of china for years at this point. And i think some of them are starting to regret it, and theyre starting to look at ways to get in. Where can i get comfortable with governance . Where can i get comfortable with valuation . Where i can get comfortable that beijing is not going to insert themselves into a industry or company and upset the apple cart . If i can answer a few of those things in the affirmative, ive got a great opportunity to inves in china today. David, i love your stemware. What percentage you caught that, mel, didnt you . You just look at the film from last week. Chinese maritime authorities shooting Water Cannons at a philippine vessel. It is just a hairs breath away from someone getting killed on either side of one of these aggressive attacks by china on the philippines, on vietnam, on the taiwan straits, its just too dangerous for them to be operating at this kind of velocity. Im leaving for taiwan on thursday, so, ill be able to report back next week when i get back on how things are feeling on the ground there. But i think Everyone Needs to be super careful and not get trip into an inadvertent war in that region. David, great to speak with you. Thank you. I think thats the first time stemware i dont even know what it is. Wine glasses. Stop it. You know what stemware is. Glasses with stems. Cabernet. I dont drink wine. Im showing my boorish nature here, but anyway. Sorry about stemware. Anyway. Jd had great earnings, pdd got an upgrade yesterday. Where would you start here in china if you wanted a china stock . Were definitely playing the broad index, but i think that is what youre seeing with any of the individual companies. Last year, even when you got some good news with these companies, it wasnt getting priced into the stock, but youre finally seeing that, right . Good news actually leading to higher prices, which means the momentum is really shifting here. Im just getting word, this is breaking news here, that davids family is stop it get out of here. Thats unbelievable so you made fun of me. You did not know. Yes, i did. You did not know that. We just got this in. And im the one that pointed out on tv that i dont have a lot of wine glasses, i would assume im going to get a box of these things sent to me. Davids listening still, im sure. And i love davids work. Ill say this really quickly. Emerging markets, if youre following, 40 of china, you look at the indices, they are right up, the eem is the 42 level, the level its been bucking up to for a year and a half. Remember the false breakout . Maybe it was a real breakout. When rates started going higher in may of 2000, em took off, and as a guy thats been in this asset class for 20 years, it is an interesting time. I was buying levered calls on the eem earlier this week. The more you know. The more you know. Coming up, headwinds in the airline trade. Airlines losing altitude as continued problems at boeing weigh in on their travel plans. Thats next. Plus, has golds run gotten out of hand . Two of our traders say its not losing its luster just yet. More on that when fast money tus. Our advi looks like you can make this work. We can make this work. And the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice. I can make this work. That seems to be univ