On the names and what it could mean for the housing market. Im melissa lee. On the desk, tim seymour, julie bi beale. Nvidias hotly anticipated gtc conference and a fed meeting that could lay the groundwork for rate cuts and begin with nvidia. The chip standout developers event getting under way on monday. New product launches including a possible gpu for the Chinese Market and other updates that could sustain its massive run. Having a bumpy ride posting a small loss today up slightly since monday. For more on what to expect lets get to kristina partsinevelos. Godfather of a. I. Will take the stage. First event in five years with over 16,000 attendees flying in for two days. Every hotel in the city is sold out for miles. Trust me, i can attest to that. The share have been up 80 in the last three months alone. The stock moved over 2 . Eight out of the last ten trading session, even without any news as a catalyst. Someone has to wonder how much is already priced into the stock and what more can the company and ceo say over two hours to excite investors . Well, theres three themes that could do just that. The product road map for their plaquewell a. I. Chip, how good can the memory for that . Will it outperform amd . When will it actually be launched and is it really 30 higher than previous chips like the h100 so could that mean a price target of 40,000 for the chips. Secondly, how a. I. Adoption is growing at the enterprise level. Its been slow with most demand coming from hyper scalers that talk about the capex spending but enterprise demand is at the early inning so expect jensen to hype up other sectors and the list continues and inferencing which helps spit out answers to questions on trained large language models. The question is will that drive future demand since it already accounts for 40 of data center revenue. Will there be an update to the total Addressable Market as well. Last were expecting collaborations and partnerships with mike cnn, micron and oracle. Is the blackwell the successor to the h100. Theres h100, 200, the blackwell, yes, is the next step up in the architecture of the gpu, the Graphic Processing Unit so thats why theres so much focus on the chip because its expected to be much more powerful, have much stronger memory and thats where that collaboration with micron may come about. The problem is the price point is going to be a lot higher and then the power usage will be higher as well so well be looking for specs because it could dictate what happens to amd stock as well. Kristina partsinevelos on nvidia. A lot is riding on this in many way. Well, and for a stock when the rest of its peers in the semiconductors have started to pull back, nvidia is 3. 5 off its alltime high where the semis are off around 8 . But, yeah, the question is, what is priced in here, i think it is an exciting moment. Its absolutely both the keynote and the dynamics around nvidia showing off their full platform stack and that whole dynamic of accelerated compute across a number of really different, you know, Key Industries where theres omniverse or auto, i mean, all the obvious stuff and then the a. I. Foundry data center and places where i think people believe this is where youre really going to hear them focus and possibly show how much farther ahead they are than some of the competition. Thats what this comes down to at a time when we priced in a ton of good news. We know the Addressable Market or maybe we dont. But i think it almost does feel like the market needs to see something special. Its a prove me story with the valuations so high. I think theres argument around it. Valuation much higher. Im a proponent of nvidia. What i do question is how much of the news has already been priced in and i do think probably a little asymmetrically if they dont deliver but i do not put it past jensen huang to be able to get out here and sell the gospel of nvidia and talk about how much further ahead they are and what all the use cases are so i just think its going to be a prove me story and likely if you are waiting to get in and this it probably gives you an opportunity to get in. Jon fortten was talking about how there could be an interesting cameo that could stir up the excitement around nvidia once again. Whats the cameo . Im sorry. A cameo appearance like some rock star ceo, it could be i thought you were leaving me hanging there. If i knew you would have told me. Then it wouldnt have been a cliffhanger. Theres a case that it is cheaper than it was before anatomy sales. I dont know if valuation is stretched now or you think that maybe it could grow into it or its already expanded to the point where theres a lot more room to the upside for nvidia. I saw that this thing, depending on how you look at it, the stock could double and still be cheap. On price because sales are increasing at the same or i should say at a dramatic exponentially faster pace. There is a way to move. If you believe that. If you believe it, but i think kristina touched on it, the collaboration, hewlettpackard, oracle, micron, i think those stocks probably will have the ability to move more so than nvidia next week and thats what im interested in watching. A lot of the analysts that ive talked to leading up to this event, julie, have said they will focus on also selling nvidia as a stock not just a Hardware Company but also one that provides services, that is software that createsen ecosystem so theres a recurring revenue component instead of just double ordering. I think its critical when you look at Software Businesses versus hardware businesses Software Businesses have recurring revenue and not this high level of fixed cost. Nvidias margins, their operating margin is doubled in the last five years and so you have to think that theres enough capacitity being built right now for them in order to continue to double their business. If that revenue materially decelerates, it has a profound impact on their profitability the way a Software Business just doesnt have that kind of volatility so i think thats the one kind of case is you have this high level of fixed costs absorption you have to have in order to justify this valuation, and i think as long as demand holes in, its no problem, my concern is, its the demand is still pretty consolidated among their customer base, right, who can afford this chip. The more that they can broaden out their base of customer, the better and safer their businesses are over the long term so partnerships are key. Sell the news whatever the news may be, do we lose the market monday . Well, this could bring us into our market conversation because i think the market has some interesting cross currents that we got out of this week. Rates were higher, wide the worst week for bonds all year. We have a fed, we have dynamics around inflation, much stickier this week but back to nvidia, i think its important, having said that, you can make an argument and look across the nasdaq, nasdaq has sputtered for a month. Nasdaq is really done almost nothing in a month of which semis are a major part of that. You can see where the broadening of the market is happening at a time when, i dont know if semis have peaked for this short term. I continue to believe that until they stop making relative highs against the s p and even of the nasdaq, that i think the market is going to go higher but they are not solely responsible for the breadth in the market here, so the question is how many rabbits can nvidia continue to pull out of the hat . And if you think about what theyve already given the market at different times and this is not an earnings release, this is truly kind of a state of the union we just had a state of the union. But their Development Cycle may be faster than people think. Think this is a company far ahead of everybody. If you think there might be nothing tomorrow, or on monday, there might be something and, again, as kristina pointed out there is some incremental progress on the 200 chip. Some of the other dynamics. I think theyre going to give the market something, its just a question of what the market really wants to do with this but i dont think we need nvidia right now the way we might have felt like we needed them a month ago. I think you need microsoft. I think weve seen this week where microsoft sort of staved off a lot of the sell pressure on the qs and nvidias only about 6 of the qs. Not that microsoft is that much more but its 9 of the qs but its a lot of how you think about the overall market. Microsoft seems like a steady eddie if that. If the market lost microsoft for any extended period of time the market is in trouble. Id rather hold microsoft and have nvidia be volatile instead of the other way around. Chart master carter is here. What do you see . Well get right to it. Before the charts youre talking about how much nvidia will affect the market next week. Its important to point out that nvidias been down 5 out of the past 6 sessions. S p, identical. Five of the past six session answer the same session, qqq also, which is to say i think nvidia obviously has a lot to do with what the market is going to do on the daytoday basis coming ahead. Anyway, lets go right to the charts. There are three longterm charts and theyre identical and then one well wrap up with short term. The period in which effectively the stock went from 10 to a thousand. And now lets put some lines in. We have a welldefined internal trend line, literally we have come up against this line for the fourth or fifth time, just to sort of annotate that further, lets put arrows in. Youll see we are touching this line. Last week we touched it to the penny and thats where we got that massive backoff, that outside reversal day and so the question is, is it a big move to a difficult level, i think thats the case. Lets zero in final chart and this would be the here and now chart. Its that textbook breakout. The stock made no progress essentially trading at 500 for six months and at the beginning of the year it broke out from a welldefined formation and it doubled effectively going to a thousand. And i think you have price discovery here, whatever might be coming in the conference next week or whatever it is, can you have price recovery two out of ten years . Of course, not. No one can discount that. Has the doubling year to date discounted what lies ahead the next week or weeks ahead, month or two . I think, yes. All right, carter, thank you Carter Braxton worth and see you later on in the hour. Meantime, whats your reaction . Do you think weve seen 9 the bt of it. I think youll reach a period of good consolidation. Not that theres anything questioning the story but in the time frame that were speaking of, right, i dont expect that to tinge for the next week or couple of weeks. All right. And we should mention that jim cramer will sit down with jensen huang next week. Catch the first part live at 10 15 a. M. On tuesday and more with mad money at 6 00 on cnbc. Next weeks other big event, the fed decision. Markets keen to see how the central bank will digest the inflation report, all major indices down for the week. Both notching two straight weeks of losses for the First Time Since late october while the dow was down three weeks in a row. Tenyear yield hitting a more than twoweek high today so what should investors expect . Do you think that we are going to set up for a june cut or do you think the fed sort of moves that out . I think theyre going to continue to be posturing pretty vague because the data is a little bit mixed right now. Obviously, you know, the prints were hotter for ppi and cpi than we would like and it feels like its a little bit what they had warned about, which was, you know, we would make a lot of progress going from 9 , 10 down to 3 but that last percent seems to be pretty stubborn. Were getting it on goods but its in the Services Sector we continue to struggle to see any Real Progress and so i think that they want the flexibility to be able to stand pat here and stand pat for the early part of the summer, you know, i think, you know, we look at june, june starts to look different. I know people are talking about september rate cuts, but i think theyre going to be limited how much they can really do politically as far as rate cuts right before an election cycle. What do you think, tim . Still looking to june. Yeah, i think i am although weve obviously given ground on that. If you look at where weve seen a couple wall street housing in the last couple of days have to cut them into three cuts when theyre at four or five so this is a function of the calendar at this point. Its starting to compress. Less time left in the year and ppi as julie pointed out. Cpi, different parts but owners equivalent, rent, dynamics and on the pp side, its not easy. Retail sales was a little disappointing this week. There are people out there, bank of america, i have a ton of respect for, michael, using that stagflation term. If we have stagflation, even a little bit of it, youll continue to see the parts of the market that would respond. That would be gold and bitcoin but i think it would be energy and health care and i think there are parts of the market that actually have started to broke out, started to outperform and are going to continue to perform despite what the fed says. Julie is right. Theres not a whole lot they can give us right now and theyre going to hang in longer than they can. Not until we start to see restrictive policy again when rates are higher than the rate of inflation, so by, you know, by default it is restrictive right now, and we wont know 248 we know and that means its already happened. Right now the fed this week coming is kind of a nonevent. Futures markets have done a lot of the work for them. I think thats where tim left off, i think if you find that the data really starts to slip off the table, the fed has waited too long. So, they dont want to i think what everyone is waiting for is to really see something that says, they have to cut now. And youre not going to see that. Hes going to cut, hopefully, before that time period happens, so if you look at next week, i think hes going to tweak qt. Then i think hes going to cut before june because of the same thing that julie said. Hes so it will be an tra meeting cut. Cut rates prior to june. I think now youre going to see them tweak. The next meeting hes going to tweak qt then the next round of meetings hes going to cut before june. Thats what i believe. And for the reason why julie said, you purposely want to stay away from the election so i think he went out of his way to say we dont really need to see things fall off a cliff. We just need to see things moving in the general same direction and i dont think cpi or ppi, i dont think they really discontinued the same general movement. Youve become more dovish on the fed in i mean yeah. Your point is that youre significantly more dovish than where the market is. Ive always been and i havent seen anything to change my mind. As a meat of fact im more convinced on powells own words the last time that he was at those meetings, was at the post fed interview because when you think about what he said, he just said, we dont need to see something drastically improve, just the same general direction, it seems like hes setting it up so that he has more latitude. I agree hes setting it up so he has more latitude. I tend to agree a bit more with julie. I hear both of you in terms of political posturing and not wanting to see that will be a catalyst one way or another but i think kind of accelerating the time line still gives you that same problem where youre just trying to get the rate cuts out in front of the election cycle. I think if anything that would lead me to kind of lean towards you is the retail sales number because if we dont see anything there, you know, but you havent seen that followthrough in wages and havent seen the followthrough in terms of employment, so i still think that ppi and cpi number gives you a little more latitude to say, lets wait and make sure that theres followthrough before its pivoting. Now reaching more of a place of equilibrium and moved from march being all but a given out to now june being called into question. I dont know that june is so june is not a given. To be clear, im not im saying if anything we could miss june. Theres only a handful of inflation point, data points until we get to the june meeting based upon where the fed is meeting is scheduled so theyre not going to rush in too soon. If anything theyll rush in too late and that is always a problem, but thats what well get this time, not too soon, i think. Coming up japanese stocks on a tear but a big shakeup could be brewing ahead of next weeks pivotal central bank meeting. What it means for the worlds fourth largest economy. Bitcoin may be off record highs with surprising effects on an unexpected sector. The impact crypto is having on the electricity grid. Announcer this is fast money with melissa lee right he ocnren bc. Be anything. Left over . Yeah. Oh, absolutely. inner monologue my kids dont know what they want. You know who knows what she wants . Me with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. So you dont have to worry. Empower. Whats next. Encore energy, americas clean energy company, now in production in south texas. Energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for Nuclear Energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. Encore energy. Her uncles unhappy. Im sensing an underlying issue. Its tmobile. It started when we got him under a new plan. But then they unexpectedly unraveled their price lock guarantee. Which has made him, a bit. Unruly. You called yourself the uncarrier. You sing about price lock on those commercials. The price lock, the price lock. So, if you could change the price, change the name its not a lock, i know a lock. So how can we undo the damage . We could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. Their connection is unreal. And we could all unexperience this whole session. Okay, thats uncalled for. Money. Japans largest trade union saying workers in the country are set to receive their largest wage hike in 33 years. The unions saying its 7 million members are expected to get an average increase of 5. 28 , much higher than expected. The news comes ahead of a key bank of japan meeting next week where investors are watching whether the central bank will raise rates for the First Time Since 2007 and shift away from its negative Interest Rate policy, also giving up yield curve control. What do you think, tim . This is sort of widely speculated around this wage hike. It is. I think this first of all these numbers came in a lot hotter and i think they might wait until the april meeting. This is essentially were having conversations like this in the u. S. And theyre having them in japan. The first move is to actually