Earnings expectations are for mega cap tech coming in. This is unbelievable you want to know how important these are . Mag seven earnings on aggregate are expected to rise 40 in q1 revenue is expected up 13 versus 2. 3 for the rest of the s p. The rest of the s p is expected to see a 3. 1 decline in earnings sounds like last quarter. Thats exactly what happened last quarter and let me tell you why its so critical that these Mega Cap Companies deliver, and this relates to the market itself on monday i said, i felt as though the market was bought bombing, and one of the reasons i felt it was bottoming, i didnt think there would be followthrough selling because you had strength in financials you had strength in health care. You had strength in industrials. The market holds its 100Day Moving Average we now rally up to the 50Day Moving Average heres the handoff its got to come from mega cap earnings to get through that 50Day Moving Average to restore price above the 50Day Moving Average. Financials, industrials, health care, they did their work. Now its incumbent upon the mega caps the bar, though, bryn, is so high, isnt it if you look at yearoveryear eps growth expectations for mega caps just to try to continue to layer for our viewers just where expectations have gone from a pure earnings and sales standpoint, but eps growth expectations, nvidia 400 . Amazon, 169. Tonights meta, nearly 100 yearoveryear earnings for q1 on the other side of that, look at apple. They will have declining revenue and earnings on that chart you just showed. I think you will continue not only to see a dispersion with the mega caps of amazon, meta, facebook, microsoft and nvidia crushing it, i think meta tonight is setting up and well talk about it later but this is going to deliver the goods. I think microsoft and amazon will also deliver the goods. And so i think youre setting up where these multiples and the growth we have last year in stock appreciation is going to be warranted and will help lift up the rest of the market. To your point about these six names versus the other 494, i think once we get into the second and Third Quarter of the year, the other names, the other names in the s p from a revenue and earnings, are going to start to pick up i think this is just a q1 year over year. Im about the negative Earnings Growth weiss, are we going to meet the moment if you look at the mega cap, were not here without that, obviously. Nvidia is up 100 in six months. Meta is up 66 in six months amazon, alphabet, 39 , 29. 5 , respectively microsoft, 24 we can take apple out for now. Its irrelevant to our conversation the question is, are they going to live up to the hype so to speak . I believe they will, actually i think that meta and microsoft i dont want to say definitely but a much higher probability on meta. Microsoft you always have the enterprise spend and theres a wait and spend, the capex spends they can absorb in a. I. , et cetera i think they should. Of course a lot of that would be based on cloud, and weve seen recent acceleration of cloud growth thats critically important to microsoft, and then we get to google and amazon. We wont talk about those now. But without a doubt, theyre critically important to the market because theyve been the backbone of the market we used to have those conversations, can the market move up without apple . And my view is always, yes can the market move up without these Mega Cap Companies, the group of them . I would say, no, because theres such a large percentage of the s p. Maybe its better meta is without a doubt if youre bullish and, you know, youre expecting big things from the big caps right that this thing hasnt really disappointed anytime lately and the expectation is, ever since them got fit like gerstner told them to do, the stock has been an absolute juggernaut. Here is what id say. If you take a look at theres not a lot of confidence in the market now the day has a few more hours to trade. You take a look at meta today, the stock peaked at 508. The reversal now to where it is. So its trading now at 487 that intraday volatility, and were talking about Percentage Points that obviously are small relative to the gains and relative to the share price, but nonetheless, it shows that not everybody is so sanguine about the report today that will come out. And i think thats good. Okay. I can go with that if you look at where the stocks are off of their most recent highs right its not like theyre ramping into the numbers no. A little bit of a different story. So meta is down 7. 5 since april 8th, you know. Not that long ago, okay. The stock has come in a bit. Yes maybe that takes a little bit of the pressure off. I dont know as i said that, and just to finish that thought, its really dictated, i think, by quants, number one, you can see it 1 to 1 between rates, yields on the 10 year, and how the stock trades and thats tech overall. Thats market overall. So id say that its sort of theres no noise here, right, in terms of the company i havent heard any analyst say theyre going to miss. I havent heard any analyst do anything over the last month but raise their price target without any fundamental reason to do so. One of the key things is, can you maintain the level of growth that the company has now reset to particularly from a sales standpoint Julia Boorstin certainly watching that as she waits for this report like the rest of us in overtime. Continuing this Revenue Growth yeah, thats absolutely right, scott after meta blew past expectations last quarter, it is expected to continue to accelerate its Revenue Growth now to 26 in the quarter, and thats anticipated to be 96 growth in earnings per share now meta is expected to benefit from tail winds, from reels, from the advantage of the a. I. Tools driving results for advertisers as well as a Solid Digital ad market as well as some early revenue coming from messaging. But meta shares are up about 132 in the past 12 months theyre up about 40 year to date so analysts are starting to note that expectations are very high. Jpmorgan writing, quote, First Quarter ad checks were solid and meta is emerging as an a. I. Leader among ad names, but comps are getting tougher through 2024 now a. I. Will certainly be top of mind on todays Earnings Call after metas a. I. Assistant rolled out just last week, and we will also be listening to see if theres any commentary or any answers to questions on the impact of a potential tiktok ban that might drive up metas User Engagement scott . Julia, i appreciate that. Well see you in overtime. Joe, you own it. Worst year ever in 22 best year ever in 23. Lets see what happens now in 24. Lets see what happens this evening. As i said with my initial remarks, this could be the nearterm catalyst for the market i agree with you i like that meta bats leadoff here thats a good thing. It could be a scenario similar to netflix where expectations are exceedingly high, some sort of surprise delivered in the earnings conference thereafter, and the stock doesnt respond accordingly to really strong earnings what does that mean to the market that means we delay advancing further when we kind of sit in this consolidation area. Does it change what meta is . Absolutely not last quarter they delivered a 50 billion buyback, they introduced a dividend. This is a company that is gaining market share on social media. X is in decline. Snap clearly from a val situation standpoint and certainly from a revenue standpoint is not an alternative in social media to meta, so with reels, with instagram, with whatsapp, gaining market share through a prime position they focus on cost deficiency. The business is going to be good for the duration of 24. Could they stumble tonight yes. If they do, the market stumbles with it. Who, weiss, has more pressure on it this week, taking meta out of it, because youre going to get alphabet and microsoft tomorrow who has more pressure on it i know whats happened of late in terms of the narrative around alphabet stumble after stumble related to a. I. Rollouts, whatever the the stock, though, has done well it has. Its outpaced microsoft over the last 12 months despite all of that noise in the marketplace. Yeah. Yeah, and, actually, a great buying opportunity to take advantage of when we had all the noise about the launch of a. I. I would say, look, its still clearly on alphabet is where the pressure is, because thats where, i think, the dagger is lining up, because those that said, hey, im going to sell it because they botched the rollout, theyre not going to be competitive in a. I. , they have to prove them wrong. So i think its clearly them microsoft is not without pressure, though, because theyre viewed with open a. I. Partnership. I view them as the leader in a. I. , so they have to show at least a nice uptake there. If you do come back to meta, meta has the easiest view, and nothing is easy, but the easiest road to a. I. Impacting their business because its instantaneous unlike microsoft who has to go through the enterprise buying cycle, right theres no enterprise buying cycle with consumers there is on the ad side, but its the easiest pathway to showing the impact of a. I. , and they are an innovator taking advantage of it. Bryn, you own microsoft, also, right . Jefferies says the market has been lowered pointing to shares are flat since the last print and the multiple is also compressed by some 6 , therefore, the bar is lower. Do you buy that . Yeah, that sounds reasonable. I think that theyre going to theyre expected to have 16 Revenue Growth, 15 Earnings Growth i think satya and amy hood are the best combo as ceo cfo. They were a lead investor on rubrik and on open a. I they have invested in some of the most exciting startups out there. We know we have to figure out about copilot whether its the app on your phone or within the enterprise of outlook. I think that over the next few years as an owner of a company, everyone is going to have that copilot on their employees desk tops. It creates so much efficiency. I think between satya and amy, excitement about azure and copilot, i think another solid read and microsoft is a top name to own by investors. Here is a good one for you. I will ask everybody the same question, too. You guys buyers on dips, these companies, the stocks go down this week . Thats a central question right now whether theres going to be enough support around the names that have pulled back of late in the last week or so as the stocks have come in. Dip buyers are going to save the day. Theyve done it the last couple of days. Theyve picked up a number of names. Meta goes down, are you buying that down . Meta goes down, would buy the dip. Alphabet goes down, would buy the dip. Microsoft goes down, would buy the dip. What about you, weiss theyre all my positions, those three. If they went down substantially, i would upsize for a trade im not looking to add exposure. Theyre pretty significant if i didnt have a full position, i absolutely would buy the dip particularly on meta and google because i believe theyre cheap relative to the market and their growth rate. I would say microsoft is fairly valued at this level, but, nonetheless its fairly valued as the multiples come in. It has. If i werent full, i would buy. Microsoft really matters. Its a 3 trillion company its the largest in the s p 500. I know you didnt say that its the Largest Company in the s p 500. The second largest, apple is going to stumble like we think wed better get something good for microsoft. I think people would agree with that. Bryn, the same question, this idea of buying the dip if you have an opportunity to add to the positions on pullbacks, would you do it like steve, i own a ton of tech tech and energy are my two Biggest Holdings theoretically, i would buy the dip. I think its very unlikely microsoft even has a dip google, on the other hand, i dont own it but i wouldnt buy it with google, i still dont like the leadership scenario. Who runs this company . Is it sundar or sergei and larry . The other companies, its very, very clear who the visionary is, who the leader is, how theyre executing. I think with google the toplevel structure is very unappealing to me because i think that leads to an inability to make really important decisions, and i think one of the most important times within the Technology Companies but the stock the Stock Performance would suggest otherwise, though, right as we said, this goes towards the narrative not necessarily matching up with the fundamental performance of a stock, right . Year to date alphabet is up 13 . Over the last year, its up 50 where is the real problem, i guess is what im getting at thats a broader question to everybody, not you, but those who want to criticize alphabet, even the gerstners of the world, right . He criticized it he sold it and he saw the stock pull back, and then he bought it sure. When information changes, we have the right to change our mind when im underwriting an individual company, if im not going to buy one of my etfs and will buy an individual company, it comes down to the leadership, right . Thats why i dont own google. I dont know who runs this company. And so i can tell you mark zuckerberg, elon musk, tim cook, satya and amy, i can tell you who is running it and what theyre doing. You cant do that with google. For me, with my strategy that eliminates it from my portfolio. So lets talk tesla bryn, ill start with you. We made it our chart of the day, obviously, on the back of earnings it is higher its not like the Earnings Report was great it was far from it but this idea of what musk talked about about the production of affordable new evs by early 25 is what has jump started the stock today, so youll take the leader of this company at his word, i suspect the market seems to be yeah, well, you and i talked about this on closing bell yesterday, and i said, the sentiment and the bearishness on this stock, right, not the company, on the stock, was so loud, it was deafening if i was short the stock, which clearly im long, i would not be short this name going into the earnings print if they do even less, the stock is going to pop. Thats exactly what happened i thought it was a very good Earnings Call. Elon was like the adult in the room to me it was quintessential elon he had good analogies about elevators and horses and flip phones, and, to me, what i wanted to hear is, i dont want to hear about robotaxi, the cyber cab, but theyre able to build the cheaper car on the same manufacturing line, and im going to say use the same chassis. I dont know if evs have a chassis thats my word use the same theoretical chassis for the 20,000 m. Dodel as for the caps you got the inference that was the case you want to have the shortterm case in line with the growth within the Current Business along with the future excitement around the innovation. And so i think thats what made the stock pop, and now were going to start finding a floor on this name and weapon see if other investors start to come into the name as the stock itself, which was broken, will now find a floor, and then i think move higher with this refocus on building out cars that are affordable for everybody. Guys, you were worried about the shift in strategy, if you want to call it that, suggestions, and maybe even some from the company itself that it was a robotaxitype future rather than a lower priced vehicle as theyve been continuously cutting prices and losing some market share in markets like china so youll take musk at his word. Its not so much some would suggest, well, given the history, okay, maybe we should Pay Attention to what they do not what they say. Because weve been burned before you know what i mean i think youre 100 right, and thats where my irritation would have been on the robotaxi, now call it a cyber cap. But when theyre saying that on the same chassis, on the same manufacturing line im sorry, on the same manufacturing line that they already have, theyre going to be able to build these cheaper cars that makes sense, right . One of the things that is, like, under talked about is the manufacturing marvel that they are able to pull off at tesla as a company. If they can take the design of the cyber cab but put it in a 25,000 car, and, listen, dont forget, the other big automakers are pulling back on evs. So were going to end up having more evs longer term, tesla will continue to be in pole position. I do think with china, once again, you have to have an expanding user base because i know their market share will shrink, but you need to have just more chinese buyers in general buying evs i think tesla will get their fair share outside some of the other names. Weiss, bryn sort of hit it on the head the stock was poised for a bounce, right . Its been getting killed she is a brilliant call going into the quarter, expectations could not have been lower, as evidenced by what the shares have done over the last, well, since the beginning of the year. I did cover half the position in the quarter. Dont ask why i didnt cover up the other half the setup was as good as you could possibly want. If i werent short, its possible i would have bought it, because odds are the stock would have lifted. The fundamental story is elon sat in the room with the cfo and said, what can we say thats going to thats going to hit everybodys hot button, put their fears aside, and have those announcements not really take place, the productivity of those announcements, for a few quarters or a few years or a decade, and let them hang on to the dream. If youre going from facts, a company that had negative Free Cash Flow this quarter, theyre seeing their market share erode in china china continues to be in it, and bryn highlights this, in fairness to her, last night. I saw her comments great comments great spot China Remains a risk at 20 where the government doesnt want foreign players no matter the historical relationship. Lets be fair weve seen this movie before its going to be up to investors at this point to decide what they want to do, what they want to believe, what theyre willing to wait for, where they think the focus is, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I think theres a danger in relying on credibility it was just a few weeks ago that he thought robotaxis, the cybe