Transcripts For CNBC Squawk 20240703 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk July 3, 2024

To come next from the fed. No signs of relief with the 10year still at 469. The 2year at 5 . We saw that yesterday morning on the hot data that was hotzer than had been anticipated. Price of bitcoin down substantially, just holding at 57,000. And then gold prices were down by 2. 3 yesterday. Theyd been hitting new highs, this morning sitting above 2,300 an ounce. Then you have crude oil prices with continued concerns in the middle east. At this point, down by almost 2 as well. Maybe that leads to questions about what the Global Demand is. 80 . 39 a barrel. Police cleared an occupied building. Columbias president has asked the nypd to maintain a presence until may 17th to prevent further encampments or okay pages. It was extraordinary just to watch the police going in there, taking these kids out, protesters on all ends of it. Its unbelievable. I know, obviously this is spreading across the country. It happened a little earlier in florida. It didnt seem quite as jarring for some reason. I didnt realize Hamilton Hall was the same building in the 60s. Same building that these protesters they were doing that intentionally. Well, the dncs in the same city. In chicago. In chicago. And from the Biden Administration this morning, approving 6. 1 billion in student debt cancellation for 317,000 borrowers who attended the art institutes. The department of investigation deceived students about the value they would be receiving from their education. Advertised inflated employment rates and prospective salaries. Im shocked. Im shocked. My art history degree hasnt gotten me a 200,000 a year job. As a result, they cheated borrowers who took on mountains of debt for not leading to promising career opportunities. Campuses were sold by their Parent Company in 2017 and shut down by new owners last year. Eligible borrowers will have their debt dischargedwithout taking further action. Okay. Meantime, this is remarkable to watch. I was listening to the analysts call last night. Shares of starbucks plunging. Earnings of 68 cents a share. Revenue, 8. 6 billion. That missed estimates of 9. 1 billion. Same store sales fell 3 . The company reporting pure weather and fewer customer visits in the u. S. China found 11 . The recovery there was choppier than expected. The company cut its full year forecast. But just to put a point on where we are, about 10 billion were shaved off the companys market cap last night based on where were going to go. When laxman took over from schultz, 30 billion has disappeared from the value of this company. Youd be hardpressed to find that kind of shift in anything but a technology company. Its hard to understand how much of this is an indication of whats going on in the broader economy and consumers stepping down from one product to another. We saw what was going on with mcdonalds. It didnt happen with chipotle. Theyve been able to chipotle levitates above everything. Were talking about inflation. I would argue to you that part of the problem as starbucks is they actually raised prices too high. Remember when everyone said weve got to raise prices, the prices now i dont know how you feel about it. They were always high. They didnt need to raise it. No, i think they did need to raise them at some point. The question is did they raise them too high and what do you u do to keep up this kind of growth . I think theres going to be a big test for lax man to figure out whats next. He talked about a lot of opportunities both in terms of trying to get more afternoon traffic. They have a very interesting han the morning. You goest to most starbucks, the lines are too long. No problem in the morning. Pricing is everything. Come the afternoon, theyre running all sorts of loyalty things on the app to get people to show up. Weekend, theyre talking about opportunities to do overnight delivery for folks who want to get access to starbucks, people who work in hospitals and doing overnight shifts. So there might be all sorts of opportunities. He talks about a 2 billion opportunity. Its an interesting microcosm. The chart doesnt look that incredible to me. It was 128. Its going to be 70 or 80. Stocks, i guess, your position in the past is theyre a great store of value as opposed to some other things. They move around. They may be it may be valued at 100 billion one day. Six months ago it might have been 130 billion. Its not Just Technology stocks. You can find many, many stocks that have highs and lows that are 100 different that are low because its the nature of the market. Look how far target has phenomenon f youve been watching stocks for years. Netflix was a technology stock. That went from 700 to 200. Disney weblts from disney. Media conglomerate brand name of all brand names went from over 200. They have many, many moves. It would be the biggest drop. You can see the chart when they started shutting down the stores. Im amazed. Still a 100 billion market. Its got the opposite problem of is many other fast food places which all the other lunch and dinner places used to figure out how go make breakfast. Theyre trying to figure out the opposite problem. Which it could be interesting if they could find a way to lure people in. Could they get gen z people in there. Thats the other thing thats so interesting. Theyre talking about again z a 1 energy drinks. They want teas, colds, iced drinkses, iced coffee is one part of that. But theyre developing other kinds of products. Its going to be very interesting to watch. Lets check out shares of micro devices. You had revenue in line with estimates, and then the chipmaker gave a disappointing forecast. Amd says theyll generate 4 billion up from an earlier prediction of 3. 5 million, but some investors had been calling for a figure as high as 8 billion. The supply constraints should ease later this year, but will have an impact in the Current Quarter. As a result, you can see the stock down by 6. 7 . Shares of super micro are tumbling too. Earnings Beat Estimates and revenue jumped by 200 year over year. That was still shy of analysts expectations. They raised the guidance above the streets estimates and now imply Revenue Growth of 582 could be coming in. Before todays decline, the stock was up by 205 . This morning its giving back 7 . Okay. Meantime shares of Cannabis Related Companies jumping after the u. S. Drug Enforcement Administration taking a step toward reclassifying marijuana to a less dangerous drug category. Cannabis growing as much as 75 . Marijuana has now been classified with lsd and heroin. They could move it to a schedule 3 classification with drugs like tylenol with codeine. Steroids and testosterone. It would move the tacks they would have to play. Any rule change would take months after the proposal has been published. Theres a 60day Public Comment period. And then it would be reviewed by an Administrative Law judge. My only comment is take a wake around new york city. Its a different issue. Theres sort of a larger societal question though. It is a societal question. Im not convinced its so great. Me neither, and the access it gives to younger kids under the age of 18 who have a much easier time finding it. Its not heroin, but its like testostestosterone. It could lead you to some type of opioid addiction. Then, again, i dont think its not heroin, but im not sure its way down here either. It can be its own problem for kids. And if youre walking look, when your brain is still developing, its a big issue for that. We all walk up and down the streets of new york and you smell it everywhere. You get high on that and being on tv and Everything Else, right . I think our brains are always developing. My brain is developing this way now. In reverse . Yeah. Well, youll see. Coming up, shares of am don what about prevadin . Is that a real thing . I dont know. I just play a doctor on tv. Did you used to know and forget . The future is not just going to happen. Announcer this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. Vegas bairddifference. Com. Re. A future where you grew a dream into a reality. Its waiting for you. Mere minutes away. The future is nothing but power and its all yours. The all new godaddy airo. Get your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. I cant believe you corporate types are still at it. Just stop calling each other rock stars. And using workday to put finance and h. R. On one platform. Tim, you are a rock star. Using responsible ai doesnt make you a rock star. It kinda does. You are not rock stars. clears throat okay. Most of you are not rock stars. Oooh. Data driven insights, and large language models. Oh, thats so rock roll. It is, right. He gets it. Yeah. Significant momentum and seeing people trying to run their generative ai. Theres a multiple run rate and its still early in the days. That was amazons Ceo Andy Jassy on the Earnings Call yesterday. The numbers in a quarter are mindboggling. 143 billion in sales. And a lot of that thats a lot of books. Theyre doing more than selling books. Have i got that right, doug . Theyve branched out a bit . But a lot of it is a resurgence at aws. It is. And, joe, they do do more than just books now. 25 billion of the 100 plus that you talk about came from advertising. 25 billion came from aws. So they have a really diverse business now that is driving incredible profit, 10 operating margins. We havent seen those operating margins at amazon in quite a while. You look at the guide. It was conservative. Amazon tends to be conservative. Im not surprised that the stock is, lets call it close to flat now. Wouldnt have even been surprised that the stock was down a little bit, given the report. I think the headline to me was just like meta, just like alphabet, and just like microsoft, amazon talked about a big capex build coming up for 2024 as they invest into this ai opportunity that all the big hyperscalers see. See that . The a. I. Business is rivalling the businesses youre talking about. Were they behind initially . I think they were behind relative to google and microsoft in particular. Obviously those are the two direct cloud competitors theyre up against. Microsoft has openai. Google has their own gemini model, and amazon has been figuring out how do we fit into this ecosystem without having a meaningful they do have their own large language models, but without having a real meaningful competitor. But i think theyve done a good job with bedrock, sage maker. Those are two of the Core Products they offer now in terms of ai services and managemented services to companies that are Building Models off aws and hosting it on aws. I think they see just as big an opportunity Going Forward as microsoft and google do. And so theyre going to spend 60 billion likely given their commentary on the call. Even if it wasnt inhouse ai development, they sell to other ai companies. Aws is a place where you go for your ai capabilities. It is. You can access a number of models from third parties that amazon has partnered with. So anthropic is probably the headline model that they talk about. They referenced it in their earnings note. They talked about anthropic on the call. And amazon is an investment. You can access other open source models. They have kind of a large array, wide menu of options you can go through. It begs a durcht question. Theyre working i tried to ask andy a little but about it when i saw him during that interview we did about a month ago now aboutolympus, which is their effort to create a largescale model which is consistent to chatgpt. Given the way youve just framed it, this is the place people will come to for ai, do you think people need to invest in their own large language model and do all the models need to become commoditized . I think what ends up happening in the model wars, we have three to five that survive. I would put amazon on the outside of being one of those three to five. The issue that amazon will ultimately have is if you think about what causes a company to have a great model its data, infrastructure, and distribution. Amazon certainly has the infrastructure with aws. They have distribution with the customers have use their products. I dont think they have the same at of data that meta has or google has thats on par. So if im amazon, am i going to continue to invest in a model . Probably because i think everyone feel like they need to be skparming here, even if just to understand the market, how these models function. But i wouldnt expect them to be a major player in the model wars if i look out three to five years as an investor. Thats pretty comprehensive, doug. We appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you. Okay. When we come back, viking holdings pricing its ipo at the high end. Weve got the details after the break. By the way, this saturday is the Berkshire Hathaway meeting. Warren buffett will be taking the stage in omaha and will be holding questions for five hours. You can see it here on cnbc. Com and streaming on cnbc. Com. Thats saturday, 9 30 eastern time. Cnbc and cnbc. Com. Well be right back. Sofi is helping me get my money right to achieve my ambitions. Wanna see . Like earning more money on my money as a head chef. Ready for service . Yes, chef and saving. To give back to local producers. Sofi can help fund any ambition youre hungry to achieve. Like investing in everyones dinner table. Bank with sofi to earn a higher apy and an epic welcome bonus. Sofi. Get your money right. Music unnecessary action hero unnecessary. Was that necessary . No. Neither is missing your daughters competition to do payroll. With paycom, employees do their own payroll so you dont have to miss your daughters big day. Time to shine. Get paycom and make the unnecessary unnecessary. To start a business, you need an idea. Its a pillow with a speaker in it thats right craig. A team thats highly competent. Im just here for the internets. At t its superfast. Reliable. You locked us out . arrggghh ahhhh solutionoriented. [jenna screams] and most importantly. Is the internet out . Dont worry, we have at t internet backup. The next level network. I sold a pillow welcome back to squawk box. Viking holdings at 24. The founder and ceo will control the company with his daughter, exercising 87 of the companys voting power. Tl Company Operates 92 cruise vessels around the world. The stock is expected to be trading today. The tick, vik. When we return, a lot more on squawk box. The billionaire investor behind Paul Mitchells hair products, hes going to talk about his new ai venture. Thats straight ahead. As we head to the break, a look at s p 500 winners and losers. Announcer winners and losers is sponsored by state street global advisers. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . [thunder rumbles] in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. Whats right for the business and whats best for everyone who depends on it. Solving todays challenges while creating future opportunities. It takes balance. Cla cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. Well get you there. Back to squawk box live from market site at times square. Remember when we had the pullback and it looked like and a lot of people that we had on said its acting a little bit deader. It eat going to be interesting what the fed comes up with. I dont want jay powell to say everythings on track, getting closer. I dont think if theyre datadependent, the data has changed. Theres a story on bloomberg that says theres a look at a wide spring and it could be the biggest fed day move since 2023. I think we went from we thought it was transitory to, oh, know, this is not transitory to, you know what . Most of it was supply chain and now its trending in the right direction. Now im back to thinking the debt is too much. We spent too much money, and maybe it really is more ingrained, which could mean jim grant do you know what 200 points of additional increases is . Thats 825point hikes, not cuts. Basis points. Tell me where Mortgage Rates are, credit card payments are, your car loan payments are on all of those things. 1. 7 gdp starts looking good. It does. Hey, weve got breaking news out from Johnson Johnson right now. The company is announcing a new reorganization plan for its llt management unit. That was a subsidiary that was going to hold all the legal claims related to the companys t talcum products. There are claims talcum is responsible for Ovarian Cancer. They say there are some interesting things happening here. This is different from the last proposal that was put foorkt that was shot down by some of the lawyers that were involved. This time the company is trying to go to the claim manhattans themselves, the people who have been affected by this and impacted by it and asking them for a vote on the plan. Underneath the plan, it would behbe 6. 476 set for it. The expectations from what i hear are that it would be somewhere around 50 to 250,000 per claim management. You never know what happens with this because of the age, the disease stage and how many claims are going to be in that. Johnson johnson also saying theyre setting aside an 11 billion reserve that would be something that the streets been trying to figure out not just for the ovarian talc claims. They say 95 of the mees oh theee oh ma claims have been resome offed and settled. The ongoing bankruptcy situation theyve had from their talc supplier emir sis, that has been resolved. 11 billion would be set aside for this. This is not a done deal. Its a plan the company is putting forward. They tenltd to believe there are a few lawyers who would like to see the litigation continue, that theyve been making money on this. If they take it directly to the claim managements and get 75 to vote in favor of that, they would take it to the bankruptcy judge. 75 is the threshold that exists in Bankruptcy Law that they would be looking at very carefully in terms of some of the issues. If they were to do it, they would tiez it. They have to figure out if they have 75 of the voters in favre of this package. Stock is up by 71 cents, but those talcum powder questions about Ovarian Cancer have hung over. The company has been litigating this for 11 years. Theyve won 16 of the last 17 trials involved in this, but its a slow process. Its been a big cloud. Well see what happens wit

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