Transcripts For CNBC Squawk 20240703 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk July 3, 2024

Gold with the worst day yesterday down 1. 3 . Copper up 2 . It hit its highest level since april of 2022. We have been waiting for home depot. It hit. 3. 37. Closed at 3. 40. The same store. 3. 2. Overall, same store is down 2. 8. It was 3. 68 a share. Oh, its all on the teleprompter. Ill read it now. You heard this already. Home depot just reporting. 3. 63. Revenue missing. 36. 42 billion. 36. 66. I dont think those are people are expecting down 3 to 5. The same store sales fell 2. 8 . People were expecting 2. 2 . Ted decker saying the company is still seeing, in his words, continued softness and certain larger disregucdiscretionary pr. It is expecting sales growth of 1 . Lets bring in brian nagel for more. Still seeing same store sales. Brian nagel with oppenheimer. Brian, you figure the stock recently has been a little weak after a pretty good rebound after prior weakness. You dont think it is cheap . Good morning, joe. I dont think it is cheap. That is the key reason why i remain on the sidelines with home depot. In my view, you know, i said for a long time, this is a well positioned company for the longer term. I think i believe and we see the numbers again today that the cyclical pressure, which i view as postpandemic numbers, are continuing to weigh upon home depot and will continue to weigh upon home depot through 2024. I dont think that die ynamic i yet in the stock price. I dont understand that. People did things during the pandemic and they used up all of the demand for what they would do at that point . That is still a postpandemic what did you call it . Cyclical issues . They moved it forward. They have already done some of the stuff. They got the boost during the pandemic, is that it . Im trying to Say Something creative and lump stuff together. I think and this is debatadebat. We bottom lined this. Same store sales were down 3 roughly. The normal growth algorithm for home depot is plus 3, plus 5. We are tracking significantly below what i consider to be a normal growth algorithm for home depot. Why is that . There are multiple factors at play. I think one of the biggest factors is the amount of demand that was pulled forward into the pandemic. Thats what home depot sales were tacracking up 25 . We are all home and building decks and landscapilandscaping. It will take a while to get past the boom in demand. Weve gone back and forth on inflation with home depot. Lumber prices, i guess, helped. Now im seeing higher prices for the bigticket items makes demand softer. Are you seeing actual consumer, i guess, elasticity based on higher prices . It is difficult to say because if you take what ted said in the press release today, he talks about ongoing weakness in demand for bigticket items. That could be the consumer pulling back somewhat in a tougher Consumer Spending environment. Holding off on that purchase of the bigger ticket item. That very much could be at play. I think another piece of this is that there were a lot of bigger ticket items purchased during the pandemic. There sis a normal break cycle for these items. Were not there yet. Its a mixed bag. The other part with inflation and this is interesting with the lumber prices. Generally expecting on commodities and other mundane i items, inflation is a positive for home depot. Home depot has been good at passing that inflation along to consumers. That inflation is a sales growth record. That makes sense. Now it is up. Now its down. Its been around 3. 40 or 341 is where it closed. The high is almost 400. I guess that is an alltime high. Would you buy this long term . Do you have an objective down the road . I would buy long erm. I would wait. This is what i would tell our clients. Wait for a better price. I believe the way i think the market will absorb this data point today or this report today is that its one more softish report from home depot. That makes the second half of 2024 rebound that a lot of people are waiting for less likely. I think thats the take away as the day progresses. My advice to clients is you want to own home depot at some point. You want to be price sensitive here. Not to get too technical, but were trading at 23 times earnings. I think that multiple should be something less than 20. Something less than market multiple. Thats where it gets attractive. What does it get you to . What is the price target that is attractive . I established my recent reports of home depot is the downside target. The range i have published is 260 to 290. Thats a reasonable price. Thats the plug your nose and buy home depot. Buy home depot within that range. You plug your nose . Plug your nose and buy it. Plug it. Hold your nose. You have to do for a while. Flexible. 274 is the low. It is not like it hasnt been there in the past 12 months. How many quarters in a row that you call it another soft quarter . That is five in a row . Five. You look at this. This is the First Quarter of 2024. Were seeing the dynamic today is similar to what we saw through 2023. Its at least five quarters. Brian, thanks. Thank you. We have too much white space. I used to plug my nose when i swimming . No, duty calls when i pick up the dog stuff. Oh. I look ridiculous. Thats why my nostrils are now so big. Meantime, the Biden Administration hiking tariffs on 18 billion of chinese imports. It will target strategic sectors like steel, aluminum and batteries with 25 tariffs. Solar up 50 tariffs and evs up 100 . Chinese evs were locked out of the u. S. Market by exists tariffs and now they will stay. Some will be phased in over a year or two in order to give u. S. Industry time to adjust to the move after the review of tariffs that President Trump put in place in 2018. China had not sufficiently changed its behavior citing ip theft and other concerns. The white house officials said this is not a political move, but Lael Brainard highlighted two states which stand to benefit from the actions. We will hear from the u. S. Trade representative katherine tai. They may say it is not political, but they may take the china issue, if you will, on the tariff issue, from trump off the table. Having said that, this is inflationary which is what former President Trump has been criticized for in his campaign with tariffs. Pennsylvania is key in the next election, obviously. Thats why wildwood it is not going to win new jersey, but a lot of pennsylvania people were at the magmaga rally. What do you mean . The titfortat what trump has done . Thats the argument. Trump will go super hard at china. Who agrees with that . No real conservatives agree with tariffs. Its not in the conservative playbook. When they talk about trump, there are a lot of things about trump that you have to accept for anyone. At lot of things you have to accept. You would be critical of President Biden doing this . I dont like tariffs. Do you like tariffs . I dont think theyre a good idea. I dont think you ever liked tariffs. I understand the argument that its not a level Playing Field and china has spent a lot of money on manufacturing and dumping these things. Were doing the same thing. We targeted the industries. We propped up the industries with the i. R. A. And chips act. It is all part and parcel of the same game. Wearing are doing the same t we are critical of. I dont know what our european allies are thinking about spending money in the critical industries. I understand the defense argument. You have concerns with inflation. If you are looking at the front page of the wall street journal, the lead is aluminum and cardboard is expensive. The tariffs, we dont collect the tariffs. We made billions of dollars. Thats the other thing. It means these things dont get shipped herem. You protect your industry. Yes, its consumers paying the other end of. This we will talk about it later today. You can understand it is not a level Playing Field. In the meantime, gamestop shares closing 73 higher in yesterdays session. Theyre up again this morning by 45 . This comes after the reemergence of bullish internet persona keith gill known as Roaring Kitty. Hemage that seemed to imply he is sitting up and taking notice. Maybe he is looking at gamestop shares or getting more involved. He posted movie chips on his x feed. Short sellers in gamestop lost 1. 25 million alone in april. You have amc and reddit shares jumping. For week to date, amc is up 175 . Reddit is up 11 . You maybe thought the short sellers would have learned a lesson and moved carefully. It raises questions about what is happening with the markets and Retail Investors and how much of this is just the way the markets will operate. We will talk with former s. E. C. Head jay clayton this morning about this. Gamestop had a reverse split. The market cap is now back over 1 billion. Im sorry. Amc. It was well below 1 billion after the short sell. You figure the shorts and did they learn their lesson. They were once again making money on the short side. Is that what he noticed . I dont know. The kitty he did notice improving fundamentals at gamestop. He didnt say, oh, look, this is getting better. Short interest. Thats what it has to be. Coming up when we return, we will give you the big reveal. Dont go anywhere. The unveil of the 2024 disruptor 50 list and the startups shaking up the tech world. And a rare interview with Boaz Weinstein of Saba Capital Management andis h campaign against blackrock coming up in just a bit. Announcer this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. Visit bairddifference. Com. This is our future, ma. Godaddy airo. Creates a logo, website, even social posts. In minutes how . A. I. impressed ay i like it who wants to come see the future . get your Business Online in minutes with godaddy airo and theyre all coming . Get your Business Online in minutes those who are still with us, yes. Grandpa whats this . Your wings. Light em up gentlemen, its a beautiful. Day to fly. Welcome back to squawk box. The moment has come. It is here. We will reveal the cnbc disruptor 50 list. We have the queen and founder of the list to tell us about it. Good morning. Good morning. Im excited to be here. Hundreds of Companies Applied for the disruptor 50 list. We used a quantitative evaluation process and the guidance of the Advisory Board and the new vc board to select the top 50. This years disruptors have a valuation up from last years list. Here are the Top Five Companies on cnbcs disruptor 50. Number five databricks. The firm using a. I. To help the enterprise clients organize data. The company surpassed 1 billion in annual revenue last year and added nvidia to its hroster of investors. Number four, brex. After giving credit lines to thousands of investors after svbs collapse, the platform is now growing to service larger firms, including doordash and seatgeek. Number three . Stripe. On the list for a record tenth time, stripe processed 1 trillion in transactions last year for customers ranging from amazon and google to bmw and marriott. An ipo has been at speculation, the ceo says the company is in no rush. We have no timeline on announcing being a public company. We are focused on goods for employees. Number two is anduril. Powered by venture funding, the defense disruptor is taking on Lockheed Martin and northrup. It is on the frontlines supplying ukraine and operating throughout the middle east. Number one . Openai. The company burst into the mainstream in 2022 with the innovation of chatgpt. Since then, it has announced a litany of business partnerships surpassing 2 billion in annual revenue and reaching a valuation of 86 billion. Of course, openai is keeping up the innovation launching the gpt 4. 0. No doubt that a. I. Dominated this list and not because openai is number one for the second consecutive year. Thats a first in the dozen years of the disruptor 50. 34 of the disruptor 50 Companies Tell Us that a. I. Is critically important to half of the revenue. 13 of those specified that generative a. I. Is essential tto more than half of the revenue. You can see the list on cnbc. We will have ceos on throughout the day. A couple of things, most of the companies, historically with the lists, there have been a bunch who have gone public. An index. I was going to say a lot of the companies as successful as they have been, they have the messy moments where they were struggling and laying off folks. If you look at the past 12 months, there were not ipos from the list. Exits from prior before the 2023 list, but no ipos of the companies on the 2023 list which reflects an ipo market that dried up. A number of companies did have layoffs which is unusual in the past. We saw a lot of companies scale quickly to address one issue or another. We were discussing brex to absorb the customers from svb and grew too fast. Some companies have done layoffs to focus on profitability. It is harder to raise money now and they are not in a rush to go public. Over time, we talked about this as a venture capitalist if you track the fund. What percentage of this list do you think goes public and also how many go bankrupt . I hope that our disruptor 50 list is strong enough. You should have a couple. We had a couple that have failed over the years. I would say these are companies that will eventually go public or will sell to other companies. Because these a. I. Companies are in such the early days of capabilities, it will be a long time before we see those companies go public. Years. You know, in some ways, they have the partnerships with the big guys because they have to because it costs so much for the computing part or the partnerships in the past would have been companies acquiring them. Its a weird round about way because none of the companies would pass the ftc smell test for being acquired or the doj. They were functioning if opposition to the giants, but openai has a Huge Investment for microsoft and partnership there. We mentioned nvidia is the investor in a number of companies. Because the compute power necessary for a. I. Is so massive, were seeing these partners with the giants. They need to partner with them to have that compute power. One other question and it relates to a. I. How Many Companies do you think on the list ultimately get disrupted bythe Large Language Models on their own . I was looking at the web side maker wiz. At some point you will go on to chatgpt and very well make your own web site and it will code it for you and ultimately disrupt a businesslike that. A lot of the companies are competitors with each other. As we saw yesterday with how very quickly openai continues to innovate, the question is if it will do a lot of the things that are more specialized than other companies were focused on in the past. I think with a. I. , it is better to be specialized for are you better off licensing Openai Technology as many of the companies on the list have done. Julia, it is a pleasure. I love the disruptor 50. Thanks, julia great to see you. When we come back, some surprising news from a longtime friend of the show. Jimmy dunn abruptly resigning from the pga tour board. We have details next. He is very public about why he is stepping down. Later, key inflation data due out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time this morning. We will have the ppi to give us an indication of what is happening with inflation. Squawk box will be right back. [bushes rustling] [door opening] dramatic music yes hon the weathertechs here. Weathertech is the ultimate protection for your vehicle. Lasermeasured floorliners. No drill mudflaps. Cargoliner. Bumpstep. Seat protector. And cupfone. What about my car . Weathertech. Sure, im a paid actor, and this is not a real company, but there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. Search talent all over the world with over 10,000 skills you may not have in house. More than 30 of the fortune 500 use upwork because this is how we work now. Some news this morning about someone we know well on the show. Jimmy dunn resigning from the pga tour board yesterday with the letter that expressed frustration over the lack of progress made and no longer included his input. Dunn was the architect behind the reversal to strike a deal with the saudi backers of liv golf. He said players out number the board and his role is utterly superfolous. He said that along with the lawsuits dismissed, the original agreement with the pif, it did not obtain an exclusivity clause. That came from the Strategic Sports group to look into the options and find other investors to come in on this. That pif deal was supposed to be resolved by the end of the year last year and it has not. You can watch both now. The other weekend, there is a pga event, the week before, not this last weekend. I know most of the golfers. I didnt know the top four or five golfers on the pga tour. Over on the liv golf tour, on a different channel, it was like watching a major or ryder cup. You see the guys on the leaderboard. They are all on teams. In addition to the individual scores, its weird. You like that better . Im saying that i was drawn to watching the big names because the other event, i had not heard of the top five guys. It was a great ending. I ended up back on the pga. They had great players that are on definitely on liv. Were Still Available for some venture. A Business News venture. Rory mcilroy quit the board. I dont have a price. Priceless. Rory. Just walked away. You saw what he did over the weekend. He was getting further away from the rest of the field down in charlotte. I think the wells fargo. Hes got a tigerlike walk when he is playing well and no ones got that swagger. March down the greens. Hes pretty cool. Coming up, its a busy week for a. I. News. We will show you what openai announced yesterday and get you ready for googles developer conference which begins today. As we head to a break, here sisa look at the s p winners and losers from yesterday. Announcer executive edge is sponsored by at t business. Next level moments need the next level network. To start a business, you need an idea. Its a pillow with a speaker in it thats right craig. A team thats highly competent. Im just here for the internets. At t its superfast. Reliable. You locked us out . arrggghh ahhhh solutionoriented. 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