Ticketmaster forced to face the mu music. Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight tim seymour, karen finerman, steve grasso and julie biel. The do s p 500 and nasdaq pulling back after hitting record levels in the session that even as nvidia soared more than 9 on the back of an Earnings Report that few could find fault with. So, why werent the big numbers from the third biggest stock in the u. S. Enough to boost the rest of the market maybe ironically, Even Stronger numbers on the economy a better than expected read on pmi sent probabilities of september rate cut from nearly 58 yesterday to even money right now. Are markets now all about the fed once again tim, what happened today i think the fed is the most important dynamic in the market, but i do think you have a case here where that pmi, that composite pmi, the services component, 54. 8, last number was around 51, were starting to see the services weaken a bit. This was a very solid number for, as we all know, the biggest part of the u. S. Economy the part of the u. S. Economy that also is very inflationary still. Weve seen services inflation, whether its been measurement in pce and what not, come through on the high side you also had a jobless claims number, i realize this is a very volatile series, if you were looking for weakness out of the labor markets, not there you have jobless claims that are coming back in, you have initial claims that are pretty much sideways you had a fed yesterday, you had fed minutes this week. There was nowhere in there did we hear we heard data defendant, data dependent, right now, again you depending on how you looked at fed fund futures yesterday, today, things got tighter, no question karen yesterday, though, they did there was this higher for longer rhetoric, and i know people sort of dismissed it as somewhat dated, sort of like a 13f, by the time it comes out, maybe its not relevant anymore. So, this i dont know, it shouldnt be a surprise, really. What happened in the market today, you had boeing, which seemed more idiosyncratic than pervasive in the market. But it was just too weighty at the end of the day, took everything down, other than a couple of things right, right. I know youre watching the outside reversal that happened today with the s p well, i think were going to hit the 200day moving average thats at 4753ish, a rising 200day moving average, but when you look at whats going on right now, you have the fed, as we kicked off the show, how many times did we say which is the most important thing now we know today, right but i also think that its a daybyday basis, where you can have a sell the news event, where everyone was waiting for nvidia we got it. Okay, whats next . The fed has been talking forever. They get blacked out in nine days or so buy backs get blacked out in a month and a half, or a month or so, middle of june, basically. So, i think you can weave that needle perfectly to a selloff late june, where the bottom sort of falls out not forever, but a quick dip, and then a quick bounceback into yearend. Julie, were you surprised by this action . Nvidia reinforced the whole a. I. Narrative thats lifted the market so far this year. Its underscored and reinforced the notion that all these hyper scalers like the microsofts of the world are spending and the a. I. Story is, in fact, in tact. What happened today in your view its a little surprising, to be honest. Not only was the news out of nvidia good, but its seeing a broadening out id be concerned there was a lot of customer concentration at nvidia, and if any of these guys started to pull back, it would have meaningful results on their financials, but that wasnt the case theyre seeing a broadening out which is really positive overall. I think at the end of the day, with the hotter than expected prints, and everyone reviewing what the fed minutes were, you know, yesterday, a lot of the language was around, well, we need to see kind of three or four good prints before we want to really cut rates, and so, as better prints come out, it just kind of keeps pushing things out, and makes it harder to really feel confident that rate cuts are on the horizon. If anybody made a bear case for nvidia, all of those points were addressed in yesterdays print right every single one. From the broadening to the potential air pocket, with the transition to the blackwell later this year. Wasnt going to happen until it coming on earlier, going to make a lot of money from blackwell this year. So, considering how High Expectations were, nvidia ended up not being a buy the rumor sell the news. Yeah. In fact, even on a very bad day, it was up, i dont know, 7. 5 , which is pretty impressive, considering where it had been going in, but that just narrowing at the very top of, you know, dell, i guess at one point was only up two bucks, maybe it closed up a little higher, but this was just so strong, though, for nvidia, that it didnt matter what else went on however, for the rest of the market, it really did. Everything started to get hit. Industrials, banks, across the board. What they told us in terms of blackwell, in terms of the core business, the expansion, doesnt this reinforce capex cycle for megacap tech doesnt this reinforce a lot of the broader economic arguments that we know nvidia is more than that its fascinating and i thought this was the kind of debt relief to buy. Can you do the math, i mean, s p was probably down 120 basis points if you remove nvidia today, you know, 5 of the s p, up 10 thats simple math. Steve, im kind of impressed by the call to the 200 day. Thats a cessorrection. Thats 10 we dont usually just stop at the 100, we rally a little bit and then you wind up this is past report the last pullback . If you go back a couple of months, we did the same type of thing, we tested all the moving averages, then bounced effectively off the 200day. But to think that were just going to rise up to 5700 going to year end without a substantial pullback. By the way, we respect, you know, getting out there on a call and i think thats interesting, because a lot of people, you get nvidia out of the way, weve had a good earnings season, the fed is kind of benign, yeah, i i also think that nvidia did anyone think it was kind of cooky they came out with the split now . Why we all know that the split doesnt do anything, but rightsize splits go up and reverse splits go down, but they dont do anything economics the one thing it does do is allow options trading, when 1,000 stock is just too its too big to buy i thought they pulled a lever of why pull it now why pull it now, versus last time around, versus the time before that . Youre so skeptical stocks never been this expens expensive. They probably said at 1,000 bucks, we need to do this. And were pretty much there. The last time i was on, a couple days ago, people say they think its not expensive at 1350 i believe that was the high price target on the street but when you look the timing of it is yes, i am skeptical, because i want to see theres always nobody comes across with that idea of splitting the stock, just, hey, what do you think we should do, should we split the stock . I think 1,000 buck as share, you have to start thinking how many thousands buck as share stocks are there right we chipotle. No longer, right right my thought is, maybe should have saved it . Save it longer and maybe coming to they have beaten guide higher, maybe theyre the flip side is that theyve got so many arrows in their quiver that they dont theyre not worried about expending this one yeah, its again, its an interesting thought. I think they probably, capital marketswise have some planning thats out there in the future and this number makes some sense. But looking at semiconductors as a group relative to the s p after a day like today so, the question is, you close really much almost in line with that march 7th top that came off the last nvidia so, were right there. Intraday, were through it and i was saying, wow, semis have resumed leadership against the s p, this is an important day. Maybe this is a double top but again, on a relative basis, if you look at ratios, semis to s p is a very important thing to follow in this market, and we got to the top, and we stalled tomorrows another day next weeks another week but its absolutely worth watching julie, is the message of today that theres still more gas in the tank for nvidia and the a. I. Rally and you should be in that to avoid sort of the broader downside of the markets . Its always really hard to feel good about any kind of rally when it is so concentrated, and, you know, the broadening out is great, but again, if were this dependent on this much capex from only a handful of companies, it doesnt take much for those companies to say, oh, its the year of efficiency, were going to pull back on our spending and people act like thats impossible, that could never happen, but we dont really know, its not written in stone, and i think the biggest challenge we have is the Business Models and the business use cases around a. I. Is still pretty nay sent. I think, for now, investors are like, sure, if youre going to do a. I. , im going to bid up your stock but there has to be an Economic Business model around that and investors will need to see that. All right, well, our next guest says nvidias breakout is just beginning, and even with todays bounce, it is still cheap compared to other chip names. Lets go off the charts with Lpl Financial chief technical strategy adam turnqvist. How much higher . Can you answer that . I dont know if i can answer it, but the technicals can give us some guidance here, because thats the quest on investor minds right now in the latest breakout were seeing a breakout from what we call a bullish lag formation. If you measure that out, you look at the flag pole back from january to the and then the flag formation down to the lows, you can get an upside or minimum upside technical price target right around 1350. The technicals suggest the past of least resistance remains higher stock spent some time in the penalty box earlier, its been just breaking at to new highs over the last two months after getting overbought looks like that uptrend is going to resume here for nvidia. So, 1350 is your next level there. What do you make of the broader action in the markets that we saw today . Not a good finish, as we can see, a bearish engulfing candlestick, so, well be watching to see what kind of downside we get. Its all about followthrough, so, well see how the market reacts if we get more followthrough, im not going to go with steves call, but i do think you could get close to the maybe worst case scenario, 4800, but i think the april lows are going to be the key level to watch to see if we get there or not, and those are around 4850. Bearish ish engulfing candlestick . You dont want anybody to be engulfing a candlestick. Adam, great to speak with you, thank you. Thank you if you are looking at a cheaper way to get into nvidia right now, lets bring in mike khouw for an Options Strategy on this name. Mike, people feel like they missed it, people are afraid of owning the stock up here what do you do yeah, i mean, its its a difficult one, right so, people may have been sitting there, thinking, im going to wait until we get some news out of earnings and then when i get the good news, then ill buy it and they wake up and find that the stock is almost 90 higher and that can be a difficult situation. Another difficult thing, and karen was actually alluding to this, is going out and buying calls, the september at the money calls cost roughly 11 of the current stock price. So, is there a way to get upside participation without necessarily either having to chase the stock at its current levels, or just reaching out and needing the stock to make a big move higher for tow see profits . One way to do that would be to use a call spread risk reversal. I was looking at the september 1100 calls, you would buy those, sell the 1200 calls and then also sell the 900 puts to help financial the purchase of those calls. The interesting thing is, the sale of those two wing options actually more than pays for the 1100 call. It generates a standstill rate of return. If the stock just sits here or drifts lower, goes a little higher, collect a little bit of premium. The Downside Risk is that you would have to own the stock at the strike or the put that you sold but that actually represents at about 11 discount to the current stock price, so, you would actually buy it at a price lower than where it was yesterday, before they announced. So, this is a way you can get some upside participation without chasing the stock. So, mike, do you put a trade like this on and expect to sort of take off different legs depending if the stock moves or are you holding this until expiration or some big event yeah, thats a really good question and, of course, you can trade opportunistically around a trade like this. If the stock starts to rally, one of the things thats going to happen, of course, is, you know, the closest to at the money call you have is going to appreciate, but very importantly, that downside put that you are short is going to begin to go down in value, both asing a function of decay and as a function of the stocks move higher and you would use that opportunity to cover that downside and then, essentially, youre getting a much closer to free ride to the upside, if you wanted to continue to maintain that long position mike, thank you mike khouw you are an owner of nvidia, karen. What are you doing at this point . You know, i did nothing today. I looked at calls, we talked on the midday call to sell. To sell i and probably many, many people have a much lower basis. So if you, you know, im never going to be great at picking when to sell and when to get back in and the spread needs to be big enough that it is worthwhile for me to pay the taxes and jump back in and hope that thats just too hard for me to do, so im just staying long all right. Lets get her on the names that can benefit from nvidias rally. Lets go to gene munster from Deepwater Asset Management gene, good to see you. We want to go outside the obvious, so, how are you thinking of sort of the next the next layer of trades out so, it starts with a little bit of a different view of what happened last night. I think that nvidias results underscore that this is happening much faster than anyone could have imagined and it really to put that into perspective is that in the april 2023 quarter, nvidias business owas down 13 the last quarter was up 260 and the speed that things are happening is really underscoring the Seismic Shift of this transition to a. I. In the midst of what weve talked about with a. I. For the last year and a half, there is just so much buzz words around it ill just leave it at this the substance ultimately is going to exceed the hype and when you have that perspective, the concept of worrying about inflation starts to fade away, and you focus on what companies, and to answer your question, where do you go below the fold here . Its Companies Like tsm, asml. I think google and meta are particularly wellpositioned, given they actually own the underlying models. Thats what were looking for, kind of this next shift. But this undoubtedly is going to be the underpinnings of a bull market in the next three to five years. So, hyper scalers and hardware are you thinking software at this point are you thinking about companies that will deploy a. I. For gains in their business that may be outside of technology . So, most of our investments are not there currently, but thats going to be the next wave, call it a yearplus, kind of the two to fiveyear. So, eventually, well get around to doing that. We invest in private and public companies, and so, there are Companies Like hugging face, for example, that is on the model side, so, there are other opportunities, i think, so invest in this wave that are not right down the middle with nvidia gene, when you look at blackwell, its about four, six times faster than hopper, and you wind up seeing their integration with their new chips being so much faster than the previous iteration of it do you think youre going to run into a scenario where people just sort of get paralyzed and they want to wait for the newer chip weve seen that a little bit, or, do you think the bandwidth of a. I. Currently, people dont need the latest and greatest, or theres a finite amount of companies . Amazon can consider doing whatever theyre doing with alexa, and others need the latest and greatest. Have you added that into your calculus for these companies absolutely. You are getting at the phenomenon of buyers waiting for the next kind of wave, and what surprised me related to last nights call was just the degree that nvidia is going out to its customers and saying, were going to upgrade these chips once a year. And once you set that expectation, the probability that you have some air pocket before the next cycle declines if they would upgrade the chips every three years, this would be youd see the big boom and busts, but i think they are training their customers, were going to get new, faster chips every year and i think that does minimize that was my big concern going into this quarter, was the osbourne effect. Didnt play out. Gene, at one point with nvidia do you think the growth will not warrant the chase so, you know, right now, seems like theyve put to rest any question that theyre not going to grow eps 30 to 40 over the next couple years. Makes the stock really quite attractive right here, and at some point, there might be a greater discounting mechanism for this stock based upon the move its had and how important its been. Any thoughts i think into calendar 26, this is going to be wide open. When i say way open, right now, the streets going after the revisions last night, is looking for almost 30 growth in calendar 25 i think they can grow 35 plus, 2526 this is bigger its not just hyper scalers, its industrial a. I. , theres an aboutfully case layer, theres sovereign nations, these are things that jensen talks about, and i believe that based on that, nvidia is still not challenged, and i think this growth story is going to continue were going to be saying its deja vu. Thank you great to get your thoughts, gene we have breaking news we want to get to the s. E. C. Has made a decision on spot ether etfs and its been approved, melissa, thats the big news coming in. The etfs based on the price of ether have been approved for the nasdaq, the cboe, and the new york stock exchange. Potentially paving the way for these etfs to be listed later this year. Remember, earlier this week, the the agencies themselves had largely predicted, as had many of the experts on our air, that this would be denied based on some of the commentary we heard around the bitcoin etfs being approved, but in fact, you got ark investments, blackrock, hoping to launch these etfs. Youre seeing ether up about a percent and a half bitcoin, by comparison, took a little bit of a dip there, but again, thats the news coming in, the s. E. C. Has approved etfs tied to ethe