Thats been 5050505050, 50s since they are the Reason Month its good to see you. Thank you so much. You can do an in to tv on the edge, moments that shaped our culture premieres this sunday, 9 00 p. M. Eastern and pacific On Cnn new hour of Cnn News central starts now the new Battleground Polling that might tell a new story about where this campaign is. This morning pretty clear trend this is the most important states exploding Walkie Talkies, a new round of deadly attacks against the terror group hezbollah. How this was all orchestrated in the moment a Police Officer climbed from one moving car to another. My goodness. All to save a Drivers Life Sarah Seidner is out on John Berman with kate baldwin, cnn, new central starts right now breaking overnight a bevy a time of year falls for his case the Battleground States out, when you add them all up, we combine them all. You get a new Cnn Poll of polls that finds in battleground state, in battleground, Pennsylvania Harris County well, i harris is averaging 49 support among likely voters to compare to Donald Trumps 47 . Harris seeing a slight bump there as shes soon heads to Battleground Michigan to campaign with the campaign is billing as a huge virtual rally with oprah winfrey, cnns Priscilla Alvarez back with us. Theres a lot going on this morning. Weve got this new Cnn Polls after you and i were talking this morning about just how you add them all up and what it means these campaigns, what are you hearing . Well, look Campaign Officials that ive spoken voice repeatedly say we get it. The race is going to be tight, but theyre paying attention because over the last several days, the Vice President has spent almost the majority of her time in pennsylvania and that was one of the bright spots in the new York Sienna College Poll well, this morning, which is, as you see there, that she has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump, but Cnn Poll of polls also finds that generally speaking, it is tight. It is a deadlocked race, and that is exactly how the Harris Campaign is operating. You hear from the Vice President herself when she says that they are under dogs and theyre generally running this campaign as though theyre losing. Now, when you look a little deeper into the data here in these polls the economy is still a top issue for voters. That is something that the Vice President has been finetuning her messaging on but also on immigration for President Donald Trump continues to hold the lead over the Vice President. And yesterday, during her remarks at the congressional hispanic caucus institute, the Vice President targeted former President Donald Trumps Immigration Proposals in an explicit way, one that we havent generally seen on the Campaign Trail. Take a listen they have pledged to carry out the largest deportation a Mass Deportation in american history. Imagine what that would look like and what that would be hows that going to happen . Massive rates massive Detention Camps . About the Vice President just before that also called back to the family separation policy. Now, generally her message has been immigration Reform Plus Border security, whether or not she continues that message. You heard there on the Campaign Trail remains to be seen, but today the Vice President also going to go to michigan where she is going to participate in a livestream with oprah that is an effort to essentially try to shore up support with black women who are very influential in their communities which is a key part of the democratic coalition and overwhelmingly supported president Joe Biden in 2020. So it is these types of events that the Harris Campaign is trying to use unconventional methods like this, zoom live stream to try to mobilize voters, especially the parts of the coalition that they think is really helping get out the vote. And help with voter registration. So that coming later today priscilla thank. You so much. John. All right. As kate noted, a bevy, i think thats the word she used this morning. A new polling out today with us now cnn senior Data Reporter Harry enten, though there are many polls, harry, there is one there was one that stands out to you that may be the most important why its the New York times Sienna College Poll from the great commonwealth of pennsylvania. And what we see here now is a Fourpoint Advantage for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. You look last month, it was the exact same thing. She youre seeing consistency among the New York times Sienna College Poll why is that so important to me . Because given the sort of controversy around polling over the last few years, i want to look at the pollsters who have been most accurate. And if you look at the New York times Sienna College Poll back in the 2022 senate race, which You Saw was the result was John Fetterman, a democrat by five points. And the final New York times Sienna College Poll had John Fetterman ahead by five points. So a very accurate pollster back in 2022, showing a consistent small, but consistent advantage for Kamala Harris in the state that might prove to be the most pivotal. So weve talked a lot about all this new Swingstate Polling has come out in the last 24 hours. There a couple of polls from not really Swing State dates but polls that i think you think tell an important story. Absolutely. You know, one of the things that was so notable about the New York times poll was harris was ahead by five and a state that Joe Biden only one by one point. So in overperformance, she is outperforming Bidens Margin by three points. And lets take a look at some other pollsters who not just got 2022, right, but who got 2020, right . Which a lot of pollsters did not. So lets go to iowa, right . And cells are one of the best pollsters in the business you go back to her final poll in 2020, she had Donald Trump ahead by seven points. He ended up winning in iowa by eight. Look at where she has the race right now, a poll that was released just on sunday, Donald Trump ahead, but just by four. So Kamala Harris is doing three points better than Joe Biden in the final poll back in 2020 how about in new hampshire, the unh call, again, this poll was within a point, the final won in 2020, it had Joe Biden winning by eight in the granite state. He won by seven. Look at where Kamala Harris is ahead by. Shes ahead by 11 points. So a threepoint over performance again, the same as we saw an iowa, the same that we see in new hampshire. Very consistent with us three point over performance that we see, or the fourpoint over for the Threepoint Performance that we see in, of course, pennsylvania in terms of the New York times, Sienna College Poll versus the 2020, was always looking for trends. I think thats what youre doing and thats why this is all important and why we appreciate the lessons you give us. Talk to us about the difference between some of these northern Swing States and the southern, right . So these are all northern states, right . New hampshire, iowa, and of course pennsylvania. And so if we right now look, harris versus trump in the battlegrounds margin, you look in the northern battlegrounds, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. What we see as harris up by three, if you look in the Sunbelt Battleground states, arizona, georgia, nevada, and North Carolina, we see a tied race, so high harris doing better in those northern Battleground States than shes doing in those southern Battleground States. And again, john, so pivotal, the electoral map, the race to 270, even if harris loses say in North Carolina and georgia. And then in nevada and arizona, if she carries these great Lake Battleground states up here, pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin that gets you to exactly 270 electoral votes. So the bottom line is this good polling for Kamala Harris in these northern Battleground States may be just enough to get her over the top in the Electoral College is a path to 200. It is a path. All right. Harry enten. Thank you very thank you. Okay. Joining us right now. Karen finney, cnn political commentator, and former senior Adviser And Spokesperson for Hillary Clintons president Ial Campaign and former director of strategic communications for Donald Trumps campaign. Marc lotter. Hello friends. Karen, you add up this polling and you want the Harris Campaign to do what am about polls. You love, you love, you, trust him when you went hard on i love. Now. Look, im always skeptical. I look i think generally the trends look good, but when you get under the hood, what i always want to know is how are different demographic groups . How she performing in with different groups because we know in those states theyre going to be key groups of voters who will make the difference between winning or losing. So my advice to the Harris Campaign continue to run like youre behind because again, you want to understand how are you doing with the groups that will make the difference on Election Day . My sense from the polling that ive seen is you still got a long way to go to make up the coalition that Joe Biden had in 2020 and improve on those notes . Mark, let me let me add two things together and you get just tell me what it equals. Factoid Number One, To Malloy the Quinnipiac Diversity Polling analyst on their poll says this three crucial three crucial Swing States wave a red flag at the trump campaign, the gops most goto Attack Strategy hes against democrats on immigration and the economy may be losing momentum likely voters now see little daylight in most cases between harris and trump. On who best handles those key issues . Added to leave when were talking about immigration now you have this added fact that Donald Trump now promises that hes gonna be going to springfield springfield . Pio in the next two weeks to continue to lean on. What the republican governor has said is a bunch of garbage in terms of these Conspiracy Theories about about immigrants its eating pets why would you advise him to go and do that i would advise him to go because whats going on in springfield, ohio, whats going on . On in aurora, colorado . Its not just about a specific incident, its about what we see these unchecked immigration doing to these communities as people are, really has to do its come. We are i have officially entered the realm of gaslighting. I have good friends and analysts now coming out over the past two days telling me what is reality is not reality. Mark the governor says its garbage. They say would happen. There has there are no pets being eaten in springfield, so it isnt and embodiment or a representation of absolutely zero have a community of 60,000 people that have had 15 to 20,000 haitian immigrants dumped into that community. And you have residents there who are worried they are theyre facing reduced services. They are seeing their parks over run. You do have theres discussions about people who are squatting on peoples yards. Theres a lot of problems there. Look at whats going on in aurora, colorado, where you have venezuelan gang thanks taking over apartment complexes. These are very real consequences in a lot of very small middlesized communities are struggling under it. So good that kate karen, recent karen definitely respond, but are you happy then in a political sense, even though is probably dangerous for the community potentially mentally that Donald Trump continues to lead on this no, its disgusting and shameful and it is endangering the lives of children and Families Shame on him, and shame on j. D. Vance, because heres the truth. Nobody dumped people on springfield, ohio businesses in ohio, had jobs shortages. They were Recruiting Patient Migrants who are here in this country legally to come to help fill what her menial labor jobs that people who live there didnt want to do thats what happened. What they need as the mayor himself said, is help, not hate, not the kkk showing up, not the proud boys showing up. And lets be very clear about what trump is doing. This actually has nothing to do with a conversation about Immigration Reform. This is a political tactic. We seen It Cycle after cycle, leading up to an election where you demonize dehumanized, and lie about migrants to scare people. But the thing is, if, if, if you stop what you realize is youre not carrying real solutions from Donald Trump. What youre hearing again is lies and hate, but youre not hearing as the vp said, astronaut, and that clip you showed. Okay. So youre going to do Mass Deportations . How are you going to do that . Our cops going to go house to house and just pull people out of their homes how are they going to decide whos here legally and whos who are not legally, is it going to be Deportation Camps . Im telling you its a desert and whos going to pay for it by . Wirth, a criminal. And the last hour with the criminals in the gang members. Thats what the american people dont want criminal people. People dont like kronos. I think were cracking was suggests. People dont like criminals yes, mostly. But youre going to have to define what a criminal is because there some of the immigrants in springfield, ohio are being wrongfully labeled criminals by Donald Trump a fact that look, there are so many communities out there that are struggling to keep up with services, whether its New York chicago, los angeles, wherever. Now were seeing it going into smaller communities. People are worried theyre seeing their Tax Dollars being going to support illegal immigrants or immigrant communities that are in their communities while their services are being reduced their schools are being filled with folks, their students arent able to learn. They cant go to parks. They do see an increase in criminal activity in their homes, Traffic Problems in springfield, ohio. All of these things are documented in Real Time by Donald Trump trump highlighting the problems thats were talking about here. Kamala harris wants to let more now on a factual basis, House Isnt its not my living a problem. Its its its not because actually its not happening in springfield go find your problem elsewhere then if you want to have the fact that the factoid i thats my thats my point. Its not its not mark that there isnt problems with immigration in this country right now, democrats or republicans agree with that, but its finding examples that dont exist that is the problem here, which is why im saying strategically, it seems theyre 12 Million people illegally. Many of them unvetted. Weve got, you young man has been missing. Its 12 Million, not 22 Million that Donald Trump is now talking, right weekend. I can show 12. It could be up to 20. Who knows, but i know at least so that there are 12 but i think can we get back . But i think what this what the issue is we need comprehensive Immigration Reform that includes a path to citizenship for those of people who are here legally, who are temporary status, how do we decide mark . Stop. Then we also need to we need to take care of our daca kids. We need border security. We can have all of these things and we can have a conversation about them without dehumanizing demonizing, and lying about people and scaring people for i would also remind you, mark that the bill that the republicans walked away from would have actually provided about, i think it was like 14 Million in that bill to provide services for cities like springfield to handle the influx. It would allow more illegal immigrants per day he would allow five illegal immigrants per day. Happy thursday, because this is really clear and things up for folks. Thanks, guys. Karen, mark, lets do it again. Thank you. Pulling works. John, is it still thursday . I dont know. Im not sure a new era of war people in lebanon now fearing every day items after backtoback attacks involving Walkie Talkies and pagers, just minutes away from the Opening Bell, the first Opening Bell since the fed lower Borrowing Cost Look at that green, thats being green futures. Look in solid this morning. So what does it mean for your money means good things for your 401k, at least right now and the Hawala Rescue as a deputy jumped out of a moving cruiser, look at that. The Save A Driver in Distress Mono Warner whelming the idea who this fictional character played any role in policy . It takes his Bananas Tv on the edge, moments that shaped our culture premieres sunday at nine On Cnn at Morgan Stanley Old School Hard Work meets bold new thinking. To help you see untapped possibilities. And relentlessly work with you to make them real have subscriptions that are forgotten or even hit him . See and cancel them all in one place. But experience download the app and see how much you could save Car Insurance is up 20 this year. So i went to the experience insurance marketplace. They shopped my info with over 40 top providers. I say 800 bucks, bill even alert me if they find a better rate and its free to experience. 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