Stupid. And this migrant crime is totally out of control violent crime, a Focal Point of Donald Trumps campaign, but well News Statistics from the fbi actually give Kamala Harris on edge. And later trump in the juice. Why the former president is comparing a Staffers Dad to Oj Simpson east coast. A live look at Capitol Hill on this tuesday morning. Good morning, everyone. Im kasie hunt. Its wonderful to have you with us. There are just six weeks until election day. If you can believe that. But were going to start here this morning. The middle east inching closer to the brink as the fight between Israel And Hezbollah intensifies. And the united states looks for some way to prevent further Escalation Iron Dome Defense System intercepting a barrage of rockets fired from Southern Lebanon. No injuries were reported. Those rockets coming just hours after israels largest attack on lebanese soil in almost two decades the israeli military saying it struck 1,600 hezbollah targets on monday nearly 500 people, including dozens of women and children, were killed according to the lebanese Health Ministry the moment one of those airstrikes hit caught on camera as a journalist prepared to go live on the Air Official telling cnn that prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the goal of the strikes is to separate hezbollah from Israels War with hamas we are not waiting for a threat. We are ahead of it everywhere in every arena anytime. Were eliminating seniors, eliminating commanders, eliminating rockets, im counting those who tried to hurt us. We will hurt them gravely. Cnn has learned that american officials believed israels attacks have significantly weakened hezbollah. Still, the u. S. Is working behind the scenes to convince israel not to launch a Ground Invasion of lebanon us officials, biggest concern that iran has blows strongest and most influential backer could become directly involved in a War Id a regional war. Here was irans president in a new Exclusive Interview with cnns Fareed Zakaria when You Council has vola to restrain itself we know that iran has a lot of influence over hezbollah now, if there is a need, islamic countries must come been meeting in order to formulate a reaction to what is occurring, we must not allow for lebanon to become another gaza at the hands of Israel Hezbollah cannot do that alone. Hezbollah cannot stand hes alone against the country that is being defended and supported and supplied by western countries, european countries, and the united states of america all right joining us now to discuss, is avi mayer. Hes former Editor In Chief of the jerusalem post. Avi. Thank you so much for being here. I really do appreciate it. Can you help us understand the dynamics here as to why this is happening . Now, the tactics that israel is using and what the plan would be to try to avoid. A major escalation around this well, kasie, this war has been ongoing for nearly 12 months now, hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets into northern israel on october the eighth, the day after the Hamas Massacre of the day earlier. Sure instead of doing so in solidarity with hamas and the people of gaza. And has continued to Bombard Northern Israel since that has caused widespread Death And Destruction across the northern part of the country, 100,000 Israelis Have had to flee their homes that have not seen their homes in 12 months and that is the pretext here. That is the kind contexts that i think is necessary. Israel, last week started responding more forcefully to those attacks. Israel has said quite openly that it will not permit a situation which entire parts of its country are off limits to its own people or people are forced from their homes. Edit said very clearly, if hamas, if hezbollah goes back to the point supposed to be according to un resolution 17, you north of the litani river, if it vacates the area of Southern Lebanon and enables those israelis to go back home. Theres no reason for this war to continue. The war would end immediately and it is because, well as refusal to do that. In fact, its continuation of its bombardment that has caused this war to continue at this time avi, the Un General Assembly is meeting this week in New York and President Biden is going to give his last address as president. There. And this dynamic is, of course, relevant to everything that were seeing playing out on the ground where you are, David Sanger wrote this in the New York times mr. Biden aides say the president s beginning to acknowledge that he simply running out of time with only four months left in office, the chances of a Ceasefire And Hostage deal with hamas look dimmer than it any time since mr. Biden laid out a plan at the beginning of the summer and the risk of a wider war has never looked greater in public administration officials insist theyve not given up. They say they simply cannot move ahead while missiles are bringing Death And Destruction in northern israel and Southern Lebanon, and they are clinging to the hope that even this level of Missile And Rocket exchange between Israel And Hezbollah will not turn into a regional war. That they have been trying to stave off. How does the dynamic of an outgoing president along with the crucible of the final weeks of a president ial election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris affect how Benjamin Netanyahu and israeli officials are conducting this war, if at all . Look, there have been those who suggested that both israel and hamas, and perhaps note hezbollah are trying to push the can down the road and hopes of having some other administration coming up be more favorable to them or their terms. I know that many israelis i would say the overwhelming majority just want this war and they wanted the hostages brought back home as swiftly as possible. And if the president can bring about some kind of elmarry in the next few weeks that would enable those hostages who are still alive in the bodies of those whove been killed to be brought back home. The vast majority of israelis would be extremely supportive, whether Thats Something the president can actually pull off remains to be seen. Its very clear that hezbollah has absolutely no intention of stopping its bombardment of northern israel unless its forced to do so, either by israeli response or by its masters in iran saying, youd have to stop now, and well wait to see what happens is that future administration all right. Avi mayer for us this morning. Sir, always grateful for your perspective on the show. Thank you so much for being here and i hope youll come back soon thank you. All right. Coming up here on cnn this morning, Donald Trump urging his supporters to vote early on the one hand, then he says this that we have this stupid stuff where you can vote 45 days early why he is both embracing him, criticizing early voting plus the haunting final message from the crew of the doomed Titan Submersible just minutes before implosion and it only has one Electoral Vote, but it could all come down to it. Why nebraskas second congressional district could be so important in this election . 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Were constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. Thats what i do. Is that Love Island . Power is not good. It feels like early voting has already started in some states and in fact many of you may have already received jail imbalance. The election is basically here its basically here and we have work to do it is basically here we are. And how exactly six weeks from election day, 42 days. And for some states, the election is actually already here. Theres early and Mailin Voting now getting started in 2020, nearly threequarters of voters, either cast their ballot by mail or during inperson early voting periods in their state hates. Those numbers were much higher than is typical because of the pandemic at the time, Trump Cast Doubt on early voting and instead told his supporters to vote on election day. Now, four years later, Donald Trumps campaign is urging his supporters to go to the polls sooner in places like virginia i am urging every Virginia Page yet to vote early. And Dod Way go out and vote now but while trump is saying that on phone calls, hes saying things like this and his rallies we gotta get out and vote. You can start right away. You know that right now, we have this stupid stuff where you can vote 45 days early. I wonder what the hell happens during that 45. Lets move the cheese votes. Youve got about 1 Million votes and then lets move them were fixing the Air Conditioner in the room dont right . Now its tara, but what happened the last time was disgraceful, including right here joining us now to discuss alex thompson, cnn political analyst, national political reporter for axios, Jonah Goldberg, cnn political commentator, Editor In Chief, the dispatch. Karen finney, cnn political Commentator Brad Todd republican strategists. Welcome to all brian todd, would you like voters to vote early in the republican primary . I think you should vote whenever you want to later, a good time one thing is different this time from 2020 as the Trump Campaign has done a masterful job of trying to get republicans to fully take advantage of early voting if they want to. You can see the results its in pennsylvania, its hundreds of thousands of votes better for republican with Mailin Ballot requests right now than it was four years ago. So Donald Trumps rhetoric aside there, i think the campaign is operating on all cylinders on that Jonah Goldberg is a conflicting he does have a conflicting narrative about this yeah. Look, i think trumps hangups about election was stolen. His obsession with it is, you know, comes out and things like that. It also comes out in the way he talks about, Voter Integrity stuff. The one hes putting more emphasis on Voter Integrity and less on the Ground Game and i think its in part because i think hes trying to lay the groundwork if he loses that, he can make this argument again and it gets in the way of the professionals around him. You know, people like brad, todd who like want to just get the right message out. And when that, because, because trump can never get out of his own way. Yeah i mean, alex thompson, we heard him say in indiana, pennsylvania just yesterday that he needs the election to be too big to Rig Kind of already laying that groundwork. Yeah, thats been a chant now for months and the Trump Campaign knows that he probably the only lost by about 45,000 votes across three states last time, if he had of actually supported Mailin Voting, he actually could have won. And thats why they campaign has been really trying to push him. I mean, as recently as early this year, he basically called Mailin Voting like a disaster or a fraud, and they campaign is basically had to make the case to him on a personal way. Thank you have to stop saying this because they know that this could be the Difference Maker in this election. You know, the other young voters are about 14 times more likely to face challenges on election day. Sometimes its because of where theyre trying to vote, because where theyre going to college there, id, whatever its college kids, what can i tell you . So that . That is a segment of the electorate that were all trying to get to. If you already know those young people. So thats probably part of why the campaign is to stop saying this. Youre really hurting yourself literally with voters who we actually know. Well have the harder time on election day, who you want them to vote early, especially also because young people i mean, for a lot of us, if its raining, if youre tired, if something comes up, a lot of reasons people can always vote on election day. But hey, if you want to listen, Donald Trump and you dont feel good about early voting guy. So big picture it. Lets talk. About kind of where this race stands. I was cnn has new documentary coming out about james carville, who i know many of you, if not all of you at this table know well and have worked with its great and im excited for everybody to be able to get to see it. Carville was on our air talking about where he thinks the election stands as of monday, lets watch what he said portion of poland. Im not convinced that it can be caused in the lecture. Ill say if theres seven swing shakes deletion, mosul least likely scenario is it breaks for it three i dont like to predict elections. I would just say just just doesnt feel like a race that harris whos going to lose so that seems to be a vibe jonah, right . He doesnt feel like this is a Race Harris is going to lose. But do you think hes right . I. Honestly dont know. It feels i think harris it feels like she definitely has Momentum And Trend lines. And in the national polls that are going her way, i think shes, shes creeping up on outside the margin of error. If you look at it in a favorable light but it does also feel really tied in the Swing States and trump has, i mean, the thing that so confounding, but all this is that trump has an incredibly low ceiling and an incredibly high floor and you cannot knock him off 47 of the electorate. So that means that harris is universe of gettable voters and 53 percent of the electorate that just makes the politics weird and in those Swing States, its closer to 50, 50. And so that gives it its just very difficult to gauge out his right about the last election was 45, 48,000 votes. We could talk about what Arab Americans in dearborn are going to do, or what, you know, jewish voters in the Philly Suburbs are going to, or we can talk about the better right. I mean, its like its just so tight now its really good point. All right sorry about jumping since i was just going to say that james is wrong and that it could break for three if trump holds on to georgia and North Carolina, but she wins pennsylvania North Carolina is a state where democrats have only won three of the last 24 federal statewide elections, trump could easily win there. It could easily win in georgia. I think still thinks that a split of those Swing States as possible, basically, he said, the least likely scenario is that its breaks for three in the Swing States youre saying thats actually it actually cook absolutely. All right. Coming up here on cnn this morning. A former republican candidate for president has a new book, Entrepreneur And Trump supporter Vivek Ramaswamy is going to join us with his thoughts on the state of the Race Plus Florida bracing for what could be the most powerful hurricane of the season. Later on this week saturday at nine on cnn costs, selective coverage for countless americans. The complex Specialty Care they need is always felt just out of reach members unrivaled access to them most complex therapies at the best prices while providing enhance support like Inhome Nursing at no additional cost thats wonder, made possible ever