Smerconish in philadelphia, the final day of voting is four weeks from tuesday. And even without my showing you the latest polling, you already know the State Of Play while Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former President Trump at a popular vote the seven widely recognized Battleground States are within the margin of error this after a long strange trip in which nothing has moved the nation from an intractable divide when it began, there was a lot of talk about a third Party Factor but they couldnt find a ticket to meet the moment. And the fresher face from florida never got the traction that some had anticipated so trump cruised to the nomination without ever having to debate his opponents and was actually bolstered by four indictments and suffered know setback among republicans, even after being convicted. The general election field, then took shape. Age was immediately a factor. The only thing these candidates could agree on was to debate at the start of summer and not at The End it didnt go well for biden. He yielded to pressure to step aside talk of a quick competition, yielded to a coronation the torch quickly past another debate was soon scheduled with a clear harris victory. And now the Race Return to where it first began. A deadlock which is the biggest surprise of all that, despite a Story Line that if pitched in hollywood would have been rejected as too fantastical nothing has really moved the needle which brings me to october, the Longshoremen Strike has been suspended, but theres still war in the Middle East. War in ukraine. The aftermath of a devastating hurricane and the yet to be determined impact of an 11th hour legal filing by the special Counsel Plenty of time for events. We could never forecast to unfold, featuring people whose names we might not even know. And maybe even their pets. Anybody remember Kristi Noems Dog . Kristi noems go bobbys brain worm. Bobby in the Bear Bobby on the whale. Jd vance and the childless Cat Ladies and of course, the unsubstantiated claim of Eating Dogs and cats in springfield, you cant make this stuff up but heres the lesson. Yesterday on my sirius Xm Radio program, professor allan lichtman, he with those 13 keys that allow them to predict the Election Winner this year, he says its harris well, heres what he said about an October Surprise one of the greatest Myths Of American Politics is the October Surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to October Surprise because the keys gauge The Big Picture of incumbent Governance And Strength and dont sway by the events of the Campaign Right . In 40 years, hes never changed a prediction and hes called them correctly. And nine of the last ten elections the October Surprise is that there will be noise, but there will be no surprise the Gop Strategist and cnn senior political commentator who advised the Trump Campaigns of 2016 and 2020. And the Rage And Cajun James Carville The Legendary democratic strategist who ran bill clintons 1992 winning campaign. And is the focus of a new Cnn Film called carville. Winning has everything stupid. It premieres tonight at 7 00 p. M. James big jobs report yesterday, robust Stock Market declining Interest Rates tamed inflation if its the economy stupid, why isnt harris ahead well, first of all, you forgot to drop in crime rate, which is really impressive you know, shes a slightly ahead in this knock the election. The things tend to break one way or the other at The End that their seven swing states least liked the result is that break for three but i cant stop the commentariat from say and its going to be Neck And Neck and its going to come down to if i think it will break it to here, i think someone who cared, think takes five to six months whoever does that, will do well in the house and do well in the senate. But this is this thing is a long way from decided okay . So youre disagreeing with the commentary david urban, do you do you think somebody is going to emerge . I assume if you do, you believe its going to be Donald Trump, but or do you think we could be having this conversation the saturday before the Tuesday Election and still sitting here saying who that will knows that listed far be it for me to disagree with The Legendary James Carville, right . I mean, i dont get legendary in my introduction, so its pretty good. Well, does it . Its pretty good. Michael, but but listen, i like to think that it may be i im the third most knowledgeable person on this panel about Pennsylvania Today between you and carville and me. So but i would just say this michael i think that but its going to be tight. Look the electorate and pennsylvanias split, its a little bit different than when james ran the Wofford Campaign back in the day there, its changed a lot, right . The democrats are now republicans. Republicans are now democrats in pennsylvania. Its a crazy place, and i dont think, you know what a mountain about in pennsylvania, i hear from people that theyre just not ready to commit Kamala Harris, david seen are enough heard from her enough trumps out there every day on the hustings and Kamala Harris just has hasnt made that as it made the pitch yet hasnt asked for the vote out there if she does lose, i think its because shes kept it Bubble Wrap on a Shelf Someplace theyre playing defense, not offense. Theyre playing like there you know, 14 points up, not like theyre Neck And Neck. And so i think its going to be close just because the nature of the electorate okay. James is she playing it to safe first of all, i agree with mr. Urban. People dont know enough about her. They know who she is and who Donald Trump is. They know what Donald Trump is. They still want to find out what harris now, this planet safe. I just heard oh, this whining about alone farm. And you know, have a specific plan. Just got an 81 page economic plan okay. Shes agreed to do 60 minutes, which is the ultimate long form interviews show of course Donald Trump weasels audited the next Debate Weevils out of 60 minutes, but we dont think shes specific. Theres not enough meat on those bounds. She doesnt sit down for long term what garbage . I mean, look at the facts here, please. David is right. Shes got to fill herself out and i think that trump doesnt want her to fill out because she clobbered him in a debate in september and he dashed stick his head up against shell kick it off again. Michael, thats why hes but a james, if you are running this campaign, youd have her in June Iata count and not one eat account. Youd have her junior county. Youd have her in these places and pennsylvania where where, you know, james, where these elections are decided, right . The people they need to meet her you need to see or touch, smell, taste. They need to understand who she is. They know Donald Trump. They dont know who she is, and thats what they need. And you know what youd be doing differently in pennsylvania, youve won in pennsylvania well i mean, first of all, she does have michigan, wisconsin, nevada arizona, georgia, colorado, to but look, i think shes go campaigning hard in pennsylvania i you know, i dont like to predict election, but i like i said, i think this thing is going to break and i feel more comfortable that it will break. Harris is waging or not, but im getting be all a alleged and for you almost at you wake up 11 day i wanted guys i want to i want to roll something for you that everybody else is mischaracterizing as an attempt by the former former First Lady to sell her new book, her new memoir. But david urban, i see right through it, its 20 seconds. Lets play it and then im going to make a comment individual freedom is a fundamental principle that i safeguard without a doubt. There is no room for compromise when it comes to this essential right . That all women possess from birth individual freedom what does my body, my choice really mean . It thats not a book commercial, thats a Campaign Commercial that is a very clever, i mean, i get him props, david urban, thats a way of her appealing right to suburban women outside of philly i wish we to run i wish that that that that Book Promotion would have come out about two or three months ago but am i right . I mean, youre acknowledging it listen i i have no knowledge of that being a coordinated Campaign Commercial or a Book Promotion, but i would say, like you said, michael very slick, very smart, and it says look in the trump household, we have we view things maybe a little differently than maybe hes being talked about on the Campaign Trail a quick final question to James Carville. James, you know that trump is returning to butler, Pennsylvania Today, scene of that first assassination attempt. Hes taking Elon Musk with him, wise or unwise . I dont you know, its fine if that three wants i think you have to entirely wrong interpretation that would miss trump did. I think she cant stand him. And i think it was very intentional. Not only does she put out about how pro choice she were, she also put out how proimmigrant . But again, the rule of the commentary, it is every piece of information must be interpreted in the motion negative light to the democrat i think interpretation that shes doing this help him politically is entirely wrong. I think shes trying to call him, cause him all the Misery And Anx that she possibly can quick response from you urban know, listen, hey, i would just say again, i want to james predicted that harris is going to break and take pennsylvania. Ill predict trumps going to take a pennsylvania and then michael you, me and james, The Legend can go have a cheesesteak. We can go down to Famous Delhi and had breakfast and celebrate the Trump Victory on Election Day and by the way, be sure to tune into carville. Winning is everything stupid . It premieres tonight, 7 00 p. M. Eastern. Heres a taste to 30 years. What people are saying things out. I have enough money of just shut up the fact is, i Cant Car Tonight at seven on cnn i want to know what you think. Go to my website at smerconish. Com. Answer Todays Poll Question, how about this one . Does Consistency Demand that those who objected to james comeys actions in 2016 ought to feel the same way about Jackson Smith in 2024, my Colleague Elie Honig frequent guest on this program, cnn senior legal analyst, former federal and state prosecutor. He wrote a piece this week for new York Magazine Jack Smiths October cheap Shot Elie said this, anyone who objected to james comeys outrageous announcements about the Hillary Clinton Email investigation. And on the eve of the 2016 election, should feel the same way about smiths conduct. Now, whats the distinction . Both violated ordinary procedure to take public steps shortly before an election that plainly would have an impact on that election. I wouldnt know if you agree with that. Go vote at smerconish. Com continue to hit me up on Social Media i will share some reaction during the course of the program. For example, what do we have, catherine . This has come in already, michael, The American people deserve to know the truth about the Effort Trump went through to overturn the 2020 Election Right up until Election Day. Joe brown, i agree with that premise. I absolutely agree that you deserve to know and i think the record is pretty darn complete. I am one who doesnt think we learned a heck of a lot new from Smiths Publication this week. But does he not have his thumb on the scale in violation of doj manual policy, right . That if it may have an impact on an election, then dont do it and im not talking about the 60 or 90 Day Rule im talking about the manual that elie cited in his piece. I didnt like it in 2016 and i dont like it now up ahead, its been 25 years since Malcolm Gladwell published his groundbreaking first book, the Tipping Point. And now hes out with a brand new volume or avenge of the Tipping Point over stories superspreaders, and the rise of social engineering. Hes here to discuss the book and former Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton joins us live on her new Memoir Everything that its going on in the Middle East and the election. Please make sure that youre signing up for my free newsletter when youre voting on the poll question. Thank you, scott, status for drawing this nine on cnn your best defense against erosion and cavities is strong enamel. Nothing beats it. I recommend pronational active shields because it actively shields the enamel to defend against erosion and cavities. 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Make it a wrexham of this world right now, save 50 on the Msas 60 Cb Battery chains real still find yours closed captioning is brought to you by you, cora, help maintain a healthy urinary tract with you, cora. Having Eta Ice for ten years, you cora, we make uti relief products. We also make proactive urinary help product. You cora, is a Life Stage Right today at your core. Com creating a New York Times Bestseller like Malcolm Gladwell, hes written seven of them. He published his first book, the Tipping Point back in 2000 and optimistic take on how ideas and behaviors can turn viral and spread across communities. Now with his new Book Revenge of the Tipping Point over stories, superspreaders, and the rise of social engineering. He revisits some of the themes in his debut work. Its already a bestseller. Malcolm gladwell joins me now. Malcolm, tell me about the apathetic prognosticators meaning what the people who sit out you try to see the future without taking aside, is that what you mean . Am i catching you cold . Im talking about the book where you discuss the group of five or more of the popular boys who photographed themselves lying around in various stages, get back in your High School days yes that was a chapter in the book where i talk about a High School that had a monoculture. It was a High School in a very wealthy suburban town where everyone had the same ambitions and focused on achievement. And i was contrasting that to, i was talking about how dangerous that can be. And contrasting that to the High School is that i imagine you went to and i went to where there were these were they were a multiplicity of very different social groups, each of whom had a particular approach to Schooling Or Athletics or fitting in and how a valuable, how oddly valuable that is, because that allows everyone, every student who goes that High School to find a community that they belong to. And how dangerous it can be to have a High School where everyone is forced into the same box and what happened in High School that i talked about in that chapter is a tragedy unfolds they have a Suicide Epidemic which they cant shake. And it was a function of their lack of social diversity so you made me appreciate my high School Lunch Room and also the greek Fraternity System in which i spent my undergraduate years. Because in each there were clicks there were im going to date myself, but there were jocks and there were nerds and there were potheads and there were teco techies researchers, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. An