Because they say, we pay them . 45 per day, but if they dont go to work, they will incarcerate them. We have to understand that, and all of these experts and all of these institutes. For those of you not familiar with rfs, we are a Research Institute based in washington, d. C. , and our mission is to issues andironmental policy engagement. One of the ways we do that is this oneeetings like where we bring stakeholders sharedr to have understandings. Those of youfor joining us online, you can use live. G rfo we are here for the release of the Global Energy outlook 2019, which reviews Global Energy market protections by lead Energy Organizations around the world. This is the only report of its kind. It harmonizes analyses from other organizations to allow for a clear understanding and easy comparisons of potential Energy Futures as the world faces. Energy security scenarios, climate trajectories, and policy options at the global, regional, national level. We are pleased that for the first time, local Energy Outlook would be accompanied by an online Interactive Data tool that you can use to export the data yourself. My colleague daniel will come up to the state after i complete my initial remarks and will introduce you to that tool in a few minutes. I would like to knowledge the contributions two acknowledge the contributions i would like to acknowledge the contributions of gloria who has helped us with technical issues with the outlook. I like to tell you more about the work and provide an overview of the key findings that have, out of the findings. First of all, why take the effort to compare alice from different organizations . Longterm Energy Outlooks are prepared each year by some of the most expert, influential organizations around the world and inform public policies, and they inform almost 2 trillion each year in Energy Investments around the world. But even once you have gather the data from these outlets, it turns out they are difficult to compare to one another. First, the outlook differs in terms of the units they use. Tons of oil equivalent, thermal units, and more. Second, Energy Outlooks differ about the assumptions they make about the amount of energy included in different sources of energy. That is the energy contained in each barrel of oil, each cubic foot of natural gas, each ton of generatedthe energy with Nuclear Energy or renewables. Considerably. Those are the differences that make it difficult to compare especially primary Energy Consumption. If you and i had a pile of currency with a mix of dollars and pounds and euros, were trying to figure out who has more money, and we dont have the same Conversion Rate that we are using to at this up among us, so this is the basic situation we feel and see what different Energy Outlooks. As a result, policymakers, business leaders, and others dont have access to the full range of Energy Futures. I became increasingly aware of these issues and this challenge when leaving the Energy Information administration, and its subsequent years with the forum to reconcile and harmonize the different outlooks on the International Energies with opec and other organizations. We solve this problem through the Global Energy outlook, which takes a number of steps to produce an apples to apples comparison between the scenarios between the nine different institutions. With thison comparison, we can answer better questions and announced policies we can answer questions better and announce different policies. One final piece before i go into key findings is the scenarios developed by these institutions and in their assumptions many of these institutions produce multiple scenarios where the assumptions vary, we include 12 different scenarios in this years Global Energy outlook. We organize the scenarios into three different groups. First or what we call reference scenarios, which assume government dont enact into policy and technologies along recent trends. We represent the scenarios with a dash line. The second group is evolving policy scenarios, which are produced based on announced and expected government policies, along with the expert judgment of the modeling group. The scenarios are meant to do a better double estimating how policies might unfold rather than assuming they are static. We represent the scenarios on the following line. Isally, the third group ambitious climate scenarios, which are built along achieving longterm climate goals of less than two degrees celsius of warming by 2100. Many turn to some of the headline results, which are also some of which is included in the report that is available here and online. Shares of shows the different fuels and Energy Consumption globally. First, when you look back at history towards the left of the slide, and then load towards 2040, which is the set of scenarios at the right of the figure, the percentage changes pretty dramatically. Scenariosries the from 2040 shows a decrease in fossil energy. Share of5, the total fossil energy in the economy, code of, oil, and natural gas has been steady at 80 . The cold share has been declining in the oil share pete in the early 1970s the coal share has been declining in the oil share has been increasing in the 1970s. Under every scenario for 2040, one generation from now, fossil Energy Declines to less than a percent of global primary energy, including reference scenarios that assume no change in policy. The share of renewable energy, showing green, grows varies strongly grows very strongly. This is the story of the Energy Transmission that ultra fuels get replaced by newer, cleaner sources over time in a gradual climb and is the system evolves. Ofn it comes to the problem climate change, the share of fossil fuels doesnt matter. It is the level of emissions that counts. While we have seen declines in the cost of renewables, we have seen expansion in renewable investments and an increase share of clean energy in several regions at a global level that we have not seen a major level in fuel. It is not evident. Scenarioseference project additions to all fuels across the Energy System globally. In a volvo policy scenarios, which is in the middle of the pack, Global Consumption is roughly flat while oil and gas continues to grow. Scenarios,us climate we see signs of a transition in fuels. Differenceting emerges on we look across the three different ambitious climate scenarios, which would be in this case, two are similar, but the shell scenario is bullish on total Energy Demand and increase in the use of fossils and the increase in energy from fossil fuels. The point is that even amongst scenarios targeting a particular amount of carbon in the atmosphere and warming by the year 2100, there could still be significant diversions of what the applications are for the Energy System. Consistent groupings of regions, which is where i will turn to, we defined two regions, east and west. The east we defined as asiapacific, the middle east, and africa, and the west is the rest of the world, which includes the americas, european the americas, europe, and asia. This chart shows the consumption of liquid, primarily oil, which is the largest source of primary energy today. Over the last 25 years, liquids demand liquids demand has doubled. And it stayed roughly flat and the less. The next generation, demand east unders in the all of the policy scenarios. Only under one scenario do we see substantial declines in liquids demands in the east. In the meantime, all of the scenario show flat or declining demand for liquids in the west. Divergent between east and west is even more stark for code al. It has declined in the last. It declines most rapidly in the ambitious scenario. In the eez, the coal shares have declined the least. But grow strongly in the other scenarios. In the sky scenario, cold declines by year 2040 and its Mission Impacts are limited by storage. The next slide is the electricity system globally. Under every scenario, global electricity demand grows rapidly. Ins is shown here measured one trillion watt hours. Coal shares declines, but a grows up to 46 over this time period. Provides 23 which of Electricity Generation in the year 2015 by the way, 2015 is the last year where we have comprehensive global data from the International Energy agency. Natural gas shares grows under the different scenarios. In absolute terms, natural gas increases under all scenarios, scenario. The iea projectionst bearish so they share more than doubling. As expected, the amount of fossil fuels used for Electricity Generation is significantly lower for scenarios that assume ambitious climate policies. Finally, despite the National Commitment may in accordance with the 2015 paris accord, all of the reference in areas, and most of the evolving policy scenario show continued growth in Carbon Dioxide emissions globally. Net this figure shows the admissions rather than the growth admissions, meaning it incorporates Carbon Dioxide , andal technologies efforts to sequester Carbon Dioxide through reforestation. After stabilizing between the years 2014 and 2016, global Greenhouse Gas emissions rose by roughly 2 in 2017, number 3 in the year 2018. Most of the evolving policy scenarios show a missing growth flattening by the year 2040, 35 billion to 45 billion metric tons. Scenariosous climate from the company show omissions falling below 19 metric tons by the year 2040. Both of these scenarios include higher carbon prices, which propel substantial improvements in energy efficiency, rapid growth of electricity, and Carbon Capture and storage applied to fossil fuel energies at scale. Has itll sky scenario rising to by 2025 and then falling by 2040. Omissions will region and zero emissions will reach net zero by 2017. This is a taste, and flavor of the analysis included in our report and the data included online. I will turn it over to daniel to introduce you to the online data tool. Thank you very much. Dano thank you very much daniel thank you very much richard. I will show you the Data Analysis that is available to you all, whether you are here or at home. And i recognize that watching someone click through a website has a potential to be one of the most boring things you will see today, so i will not spend too long, but i want to give you an idea for how this tool works and how you can put it to use for yourself or your organization. This is the homepage for the Global Energy outlook. If you scroll down a little bit, you will see our report for this year we are discussing today, and you will come toward data visualization, which is a tool that gives you options to click through and get a sense of how the Global Energy system has evolved and how it is likely to evolve in the future under the range of scenarios richard has described. I will briefly show you what you have available to you in the default view, show you options you can manipulate yourself as well as being able to download data, image ease and embed visualizations into your own website. If you mouse over any of the lines in the visualization, the data points pop up, whether it is for shell the year 2065, or the use eia in the year 2034. You can view the individual points by mousing over the lines. There are a variety of scenarios we include as defaults when you select any given measure, but you can add or subtract scenarios from whatever view youre interested in. Shell goes out of the year 2100, so if you want to zoom in and look at a smaller timescale, you can deselect shale. This is a view that gives you a sense of primary Energy Consumption for the world, for all fuels, and all sectors, but lets say we want to get more granular. That say youre interested in the potential for Energy Consumption in china in the future. You can change the region of view. Just click, scroll down to china, hit select, and the graph automatically reloads. Give the opportunity to select or deselect different scenarios as you see fit. Lets say we are not interested in total Energy Consumption in coal weut interested in provide the data that is provided in the underlying outlook from these organizations. If youre interested in Nuclear Energy, scroll down and click on nuclear. If youre interested in solar and any other type of energy, you can click on those as well. And we present to you all the Data Available publicly from these organizations. I will note that at the moment, our sectors button is fairly limited and we are still updating the data, so if you click around in sectors, you make a limited result, but we are working on it to improve the experience. On more thing i want to show you before i asked richard to return to the stage, as well as sarah and ben to have a discussion on this report, i want to shave that you dont have to compare between outlooks i want to show you that you dont have to compare between outlooks. Change the data series youre analyzing. To set up a pen between outlooks and scenarios, lets say you want to compare between regions, sectors, or fuels. I will click on fuels. Quickly, we see primary Energy Consumption is not available here because the default view is focused on the electricity sector. Lets go down to bp instead. When we click bp, you will see china is still selected as a region of interest, and we have a variety of Energy Sources displayed on the figure. Coal is the leading Energy Source in china, but you can examine other fuels. Lets say we want today ginter to renewable sources, so i will click on geothermal energy, biofuels, solar, and wind and take out liquids and natural gas. Once again, i can look at specific trends for specific fuels in specific outlooks, depending on what you are interested in for yourself or your organization. I cansent another spend another week playing with the data tool, what i will stop here. I encourage you all to explore the data and provide us with feedback. Our emails will be displayed shortly on the screen, so we encourage you to get in touch with us and let us know your suggestions for improving the tool. Or if there are bugs in the data, we hope there arent any. We encourage any housekeeping you may be able to help us with. The last thing i will show you on the website for making a few more comments and then turning it over is the ability to download the data for yourself. I have been looking at visuals, but you can also change the view to a table, just by clicking on this icon on the top right. You can download the data by clicking on the download button, or download an image of the spheres we were looking at, or a file to manipulate and analyze the data yourself. And you can embed the tool into your own website using the embed visualization tool. Now, i will go away from this website, put others back on our regularly scheduled programming. Address,see my email glorias, and richards email address and we encourage your engagement on this tool as we seek to improve it. Some final comments, our plans to explore this tool or expand this tool and the next few years are pretty substantial, and we are looking for your feedback to learn what is most valuable for the environment of community, but in general, our plans are to include something old, which is to say, add projections from previous years, such as 2011, 2012, from all the organizations we have been talking about today. Here planning to add something new, of course the 2019 projections that have come out already from major Energy Organizations. And we are planning on adding new outlooks with other groups. Are also looking to add something modeled to the analysis, in particular, looking at including integrated models that inform the process so people can compare the Energy Scenarios as envisioned by the special envisioned by the iea and how that stacks up with another scenario that they may be using to inform their analysis. Bullet, we look forward to your comments and suggestions about ways to improve this tool going forward. So, i will stop there. Thank you once again for joining us in the room and online, and i will now invite richard back up to the stage along with sarah and ben. Ben, sarah, and richard, please join us on stage. Thank you. [applause] good afternoon, everyone. Saying,o start off by richard, congratulations on this tool. It is very cool and very powerful. Congratulations to daniel and gloria as well. It is a great thing. One thing that came to mind when i was looking in hearing about it was i am wondering, how should policymakers and other this,olders sort of use in terms of both areas of agreement and diversions across the different types of scenarios , but within those groupings, we see diversions as well. I would be curious of how you interpret or think about how policymakers should fix this thing up and utilize it . Richard there are a number of ways these types of projections can be used and are used. In order to help decisionmakers understand the scale, the complexity and the market realities of this Energy System so when they are designing policies, they are doing so with the clear i had to toward effectiv