And its for those of you not amiliar, politico is washington d. C. Based news outlet. Im sure all of you are reading it. Im really delighted to be here today in texas, one of my the union. Ates in im not just pandering. Were going to talk about the state of agriculture in 2020 and beyond. And before we start, i want to theurage you to join conversation on social media, is trib fest 19. I also want to give a big thanks the Texas Tribune festival for hosting this great event and sponsoring. I also understand the Texas Farm Bureau is supporting this and to hear from them. We have a really good panel. Know if you guys realize that. I dont know if the audience realizes that. Two texans and an iowan, which is great. Ideologicalss the spectrum. Frankly, theres a lot going on agriculture, so we have plenty to talk about. Were going to take a few questions at the end, so keep in mind, anything you want to ask the panel and we will leave time for lots of discussion and dialogue. So to begin, we have texas sidculture commissioner miller. Youre maybe familiar with the Texas Department of agriculture. That Department Since 2015. Yes, that deserves a round of applause. [applause] one of your Biggest Industries here. Former agriculture secretary, tom. Led during the obama administration, he was the longest serving cabinet member in that administration. Of the u. S. E c. E. O. U. S. Dairy export council. Then we have state representative drew springer, who represents almost the largest district in texas, ander than 74 countries more than twice the size of massachusetts. Very large district. He also is chair of the Agriculture Committee in the legislature, which i understand has been getting quite a bit of buzz. Were going to talk about that. Yes. Welcome [applause] here. Let me set the stage i think we probably mostly have here. Griculture audience probably tuning in as well. There are only about two million country that are directly farming. So a lot of people, even though eating and wearing fibers and using fuel thats grown in were not states, directly engaged in this industry as much as we used to be. Disconnect. A big i imagine most of you are not thinking about agriculture every day, but there is a lot going on. And i was hoping that each of you would kind of set the stage you think we are right now in the agriculture sector. I mean, certainly theres been a bad news. The trade war, and the impact of that. Weve had a lot of crazy weather this year. But where are things in the industry . What is the mood . What is the sentiment . Is going on that maybe those outside of agriculture are not, like, tuned into . Going to start with you, commissioner. Well, agriculture is the state, overe of our 100 billion industry. One in five jobs is related to culture in this state. We lead the nation in ag culture wool,s, cattle, cotton, mothe list goes on and on. We had its the second largest industry, but even before we had an oil and industry, agriculture has been the glue thats held our state together from the very earliest settlers to the longhorn cattle drives, its the stabilizing force for our state. Let me tell you, agriculture exports is really important and why were going to talk about trade. Tariffs and laredo, texas, theres 17 ports of entry. Thats the largest inland port in the united states. One days time, theres 14,000 trucks go back and forth across there. A slow day, its about half a billion dollars worth of trade. About a billion dollars between the state of state of mexico. Agriculture is a big deal in our state. Myts why we you know, department is a big department. I oversee a 6 billion budget. Thats just a number. If i told you, mr. Secretary, that my budget than the budget of 31 governors, that would kind of put it in perspective. Responsible for five Million School meals each day. We do cows, plows and sows. Other stufflot of too that you really dont know about. Were kind of the best unknown of texas. The state how do you think how are texas farmers and ranchers doing right now . The sentiment . Farming and ranching is always a struggle. I tell everybody that im an eighth generation farmer rancher thats just kind of is in agriculture. Were struggling a little bit. Commodity prices have been for quite some time. We do have some highlights. Thee had an uptick in livestock industry, in the pork industry, coming back. Is the cattle business looking good. Weve got some a new old prop thatg on the horizon everybody is excited about. Hemp, well be writing the rules for that this summer and fall and have our first production since the 1940s. But were at a Pivotal Point in ag culture in our state. Call it ag culture 3. 0. Was subsistence farming when most of the families farmed. Farmed with mules. And then we went to agriculture had the era of mechanization. We mechanized. Then you want from farming 40 4,000 acres. To thats kind of where weve just been. Culturee entering ag 3. 0 and its the technology age. So now were using, you know, tracking, global positioning, drones, you know, hightech research and all that. Were doing more farming indoors, vertical farming. The whole thing is just changing. So one thing thats constant in culture is that its always changing, but its always changes for the better. Culture, we have to constantly produce more with less. Challenge. You know, we lose about one farm to urbanre in texas encroachment. We have to, by the year 2050, to have to double the amount of food we produce and well have land to do it on. Agriculture is really good about rising up to those challenges and well continue to that. How about you, secretary . Where do you see agriculture now . You have a very good pulse on whats going on. Averageyou think the consumer doesnt understand . First of all, i want to compliment the commissioner gap with thearks number of jobs connected to this industry. Of peoplegain, a lot dont understand when you take a look at the food, the industry, 43 million americans are employed directly or indirectly by that industry. Largest singlehe employer in the country. So its a big deal. So if agriculture is doing well, people are going to be employed. Exports are incredibly important to that. We produce ist exported. All farm income is directly related. I would answer the question sort of taking off on what the commissioner said. It depends on what time frame youre talking about. If youre talking act, how are things right now . Are feeling folks some stress. As the commissioner indicated, weve had a couple years of prices. Ifficult weve had uncertainty in the trade area. So i think there is a bit of stress out there. However, if youre looking at the longterm future of it islture, i think amazingly positive. The commissioner mentioned the agriculture that were now seeing, vertical agriculture, organic, plantbased materials, things of that nature. But i believe also that as we the changing climate, we can talk about new Revenue Streams for farmers. Opens up an exciting new future for farming generally that may make it more profitable consistently profitable. Pibig challenge in farming is te ups and downs, especially in dairy. Were beginning to flatten those peaks and valleys out. Exports record year in last year. Had a little bit of a challenge this year, but our value is up significantly. Were selling about 900 million more in Dairy Products this year than last year. Which i think is surprising to some people. You hear so much about the trade the streas stress. Youre agriculture is global in its scope. We sent a lot south. Mexico is our number one market of dairy. We dont send as much north as we need to, in canada. Thats important. We send to the middle east and north africa. To southeast asia, korea, japan, china. All over theally world. As the World Population grows, it becomes more organized, theres going to be greater dairy for protein and protein can satisfy a lot of that protein need. Things aregterm going to get much better, but i think right now there is a bit of stress out there. About you . To continue to build on that, early tech was the industry. We went from, you know, one farm feeding themselves, and one person in the city, to now feeding hundreds. To see that growth from the one plow to 48 rows, implementations that the g. P. S. Is driving from that standpoint, in the dairy industry. Talked about were now seeing a dairy farm in texas has robots doing the work, because labor is harder and harder to get. Were seeing those type of innovations come through. Were seeing drones that can fly whiched yards, identify cow is hot and needs treatment rather than treating the entire 1,000 cows with antibiotics. You can treat one cow. Towe have healthier food eat. Were not overmed kairting. Overmedicating. Were doing the same thing with irrigation. 22 inchessed to spend of water on cotton, were now down to 12. Ofre seeing those kind innovations come through. But at the same time, we have those challenges. Is, and i think right now were seeing it in our cattle half the basically state of texas, ag industry, is cattle. Seeing a breakdown in the commodity board. Theres class action lawsuits going on. Going to the auction barns and are getting paid a fair price. Theres manipulation going on. The federal government has not that. D in to address over the next couple of years, we have to do that, or else many going to see just too folks going broke. Do you think the folks in your district are generally optimistic about the direction agriculture . We touched a little bit on the stress and sort of, you know, prices are i mean they put a lot of farmers in a risky situation or sort of like get to the next year. In it ares that are used to that. Theyre always optimistic. A more optimistic person than a farmer, rancher, especially in texas. Worried, though, about those young farmers. How can they afford to get in county, mye in cook home county of 40,000 people, is 5,000 an acre, when you gotta think of the debt service to be able to raise cattle in that climate, it gets to be really tough. Thats really where we face our biggest challenges. Sounds like i mean, theres a lot of optimism, which i talkfrom the farmers to as well. Theres also, i think, been a around theative Financial Stress and the impact and sort of the moment that agriculture is in, medialot of National Coverage has been around, what does that mean politically, right . Does that mean that in the next that farmers and ranchers might pull away from President Trump . Strong, you such a know, constituency for him. Sounds like no one is really levelg about, like, that of ha ha of stress. Ha ha but this is the narrative. The stories. It is very strongly presented that, you know, President Trump losing thisf constituency. Not that farmers and ranchers elections but that theres sort of an example of Rural Support for the president a tough time in agriculture. I suspect thats more local than it is national. And i gotta remember im in texas, so this is going to be a little hard for me to say. But the reality is, where i come from, people are deeply concerned about the renewable standard. You might need to briefly stay with that. Well, it basically minimum levels of ethanol thats blended into our and biofuels. So were using it but we might not be thinking about ethanol. Consumers. Were absolutely using it. But from a American Farmers perspective, not using as much of it as we could. Theres been some uncertainty about where the administration actually is, whether they are on theclined to focus oil industry or more inclined to focus on midwest farmers. Issue, more so than the trade, more so than the difficult prices, could potentially drive some farmers a different political decision. I think farmers generally, at to,t the ones i talked theyre willing to understand the necessity of going after china. Have questions about whether or not we went after it the right way, by to alves as opposed coalition of nations where we could have potentially been more successful. They understand that china playing by the rules and somebody had to call them on it. I think theyre willing to be patient in that respect. The ethanol industry, an issue, plants are closing. Lost. Re being corn prices are not where they need to be. So thats causing a lot of concern. D i think were hes exactly right. I think were real close to that. G a deal on the president is aware of that. My contact with him and the administration, they want to take care of the corn farmers. All thoset mean for waivers to get out. They did. Even though the e. P. A. Has done a lot of really good stuff for agriculture industry, water, all thats been fixed, were going to get to the point, i think really quick, where this be resolved and a certain minimum will be required to restore those ethanol amounts. Ethanol is, you know, vital to our national security. Helps us be energy independent. So i think were almost there on that. Keeping fingers crossed. And the one thing i would add it, talking about how will it wentt, in my district, 86 for President Trump, you know, atyre sitting there looking the other alternatives and see saying, jeez, weve got a texan talking about closing the oil and gas industry. If youre a farmer and rancher, you might have minerals below you. Theyrether side, hearing president ial candidates saying they want to eliminate the cattle industry by having a tax to make sure only the super elite can afford to eat cattle. There and look at it from this standpoint. Once again, thats the big driver in texas, is cattle. Not as big in the row and soybeans, but i can tell you, theyre not inering for President Trump my part of the district. I have a lot of interviews the farmerssk me, are, are we sticking with trump and these tariffs . Were goingble through . Weve lost our sales to china. Theink farmers get it in long run. We made a huge mistake from a business point. Never allow any one customer to have 60 or more of business. Thats what happened to china. When you do that, they can get you. We are now. Of where weve always been in a trade war with china. This is the first time weve fought back. I think farmers understand, in the long run, were going to be a lot better off by spreading our risk, being less reliant on one big customer. Department, we just weve been really, really hustling that, finding new markets. Weve got our sorghum into spain and dubai. I just returned from 10 days in india, opening new markets there. Leaving to go be to vietnam. Replace thate can market that we lost, i dont sell to chinar again. Weve got to spread our risk out. Thats easy for a guy from texas to say. But the soybean farmers are going to have a difficult time alternative market for what they sold to china. Theres just no way. Lot of consumers. But to your point, i think there toward beingift more having your eggs in to not havingets, all if you have one trading just completely decimates prices in one year, if they just decide to not largest we sold to china sorghum. On and grain were finding new customers. Weve been pretty successful at it. We will be less reliant on china. A hear a lot more patience a lotou see reflected in of the coverage. I think that is true. But how long can that last . Need a lote going to of patience with china. Its still unclear as to what is relative to china, which is to say, are we trying to disengage our chineses from the economy . They were closely linked to the commissioners point. Disengage, goto out to the rest of the world, or are we trying to get them to of doingeir way business so we can do business more easily with them . Not stealing intellectual property and all that. Were asking them to change they do business in their own country. Pretty heavy lift. Because weult also went along. Had we spent time building an alliance with europeans, japanese, koreans, maybe even folks in south america, it would be more difficult for them to put the bulls bullseye as they farmers. Merican i think the administration recognizes that. Theyre trying to reach out now get some they can support from the e. U. I was over in europe. A european official came up to and said, thank you very much for what youre doing over there, because as long as you they areng with china, buying all of our stuff. Not buying from you. You know what . Them toucceed and get change the rules, were gonna benefit from that too. We get the best of both worlds and dont have to pay a price. I think one thing that might one of theexplain, reasons agriculture is so vulnerable in trade, we have so production. Were so good at sell our that we have a surplus and we have long had a surplus compared to other industries. Were importing way more clothing but exporting way more goods than were importing. Which means if youre fighting like, oh, thats the thing to target, the pain point. I think folks dont really thats whythat but agriculture is so vulnerable, because we are successful. But to part of that is its the efficiency of the it working . Is if china and america are getting along, yes. But when china wasnt taking im in shanghai and im walking down the streets, seeing ibp stackedxes of up. They just went to vietnam and other countries. Take on moving that. Same things happened to soybeans. The u. S. Is backfilling where to. Il used to fill so you do have that. Capacity andhe x some of these left over, yes, you dont want to be the last one holding. But i think its painted too often in the media that we dont our soybeans to china, theyre just going to rot. Thats not true. Get a smaller amount for them. You might not make money but rot. Re not going to ok. Respect,ll due representative, there are bins full of soybeans in my state. Before the harvest. Theres really no place to put those soybeans. Thats the challenge. Commissioners point, overreliant on one market, it disruption. But heres the frustration for people who arent farmers. That you just imagine that you were the best at something, best in the world. Imagine you were the best in the history of the world at what you did. And in the best year of farm in 2014, 75 of you would make less than 10,000. Player,he best baseball what are you making, commissioner . Youre the best doc, what are making . Best farmer . You may go out of business. Thats the frustrating thing farming. And we do have the best that ever was. Good news just this last week, china bought correct me on the numbers but i think it was million tons of soybeans. Oh, no. Wasnt it that much . 750,000. 750,000. Thats a pot of beans. Thats a good start. Wouldept that we normally sell seven billion. All right. Buy our are starting to beans again. Thats a good sign. I think, yeah, a few years million. As like 14 so, you know, its like a small step, because over the summer, after talks broke down, they stopped buying a lot of it. But youve got to get started. So th