Transcripts For CSPAN Bipartisan Policy Center Discussion On

CSPAN Bipartisan Policy Center Discussion On Immigration The 2020 Election July 14, 2024

Also, the differing approaches to the immigration debate and how the approaches have shifted since the 2016 election. We ask that you wait for the q a so people can understand the questions. We invite you the street invite you to tweet along with us. We will have some staff tweeting the event as well. To do a little bit of a scene setter, i am Teresa Cardinal brown. I am the director of immigration and crossborder policy. We have been working on immigration issues since 2013 when our Immigration Task force was formed. Immigration has become a highprofile national issue. Increasingly important to our elections. It is also becoming more partisan as if we had not noticed that. Partisanship is not good for actually solving problems. Pcs job the to find solutions to the biggest problems. None of these issues is more in need of this than immigration. Last year, we conducted a nationwide poll to find out what types of Immigration Reform americans wanted to see. We found there was more Common Ground than is widely imagined. We call this coming ground the new middle. You can find those results on our website at bipartisan policy. Org new middle. We are pretty into the campaign season. The electoral race is well underway. Embers of congress are gearing up for their campaigns. He wanted to get a sense of where American Voters are on this issue now. Particularly whether or not there is appetite for compromise on the issue. We partnered with warning consult to conduct a poll last month on that topic. Do voters want to want their elected officials to work across the aisle . We will be presenting the results of that poll today. Following that presentation, we will have a Bipartisan Panel of experts in policy and politics to talk about the immigration debate. About where they see this going, both as an issue, and how we might get to solve it, but also politically, how will it play in the election, both president ial and congressional . There will be time for q a at the end. Questions as good we go and now, let me introduce our opening speakers. Tyler sinclair is a Vice President at Morning Consult. He has been conducting polls for many years for them. Carolyn five, has been the primary person working on this for us. They will present an overview of the poll results. You have a memo that they did with summaries and the detailed results of the polling are available on our website that for those who would like to get deep into the numbers. I will ask tyler and carolyn to come forward. Thank you. Tyler thank you very much for that, theresa. And thank you all for having us. It is always very exciting to see a group of smart and dedicated people coming together to talk about the issues that are facing our nation. Just so you all know, im going to go over a couple of key points about what we found in of quickand a couple results before i turn it over to caroline to go more in depth with this topic. Just the quick overview of this is we will look at the importance of immigration. When it comes to their vote for 2020. And what we see is overall for democrats, health care is going to be the most important issue for them. Immigration will be most important to the republicans. Looking overall at the desire for compromise in congress, what we will see is while republicans and democrats say immigration is important to them, we see there is a lot of area for compromise when it comes to this topic. Just looking overall, here at the top line results, when we ask voters the top three most important issues to them when it comes to their vote in 2020, what we see is among democrats, health care is a muscle portent issued to them with about 56 saying it is their most important policy issue for them. When we look at republicans for the top three issues, we see that it is immigration at about 54 saying that will be one of the most important issues for them when thinking of how they will vote in 2020. Votersn, when we ask thinking about canada policies and plans overall, the various policies and proposals that candidates put forward, how important is specifically their immigration plan to how you will vote in 2020 . Or how important is that for when you are evaluating that candidate . Overall, registered voters, 80 the immigration plan of a 2020 candidate is very important to them and how they will vote. But i think what is interesting here is when you look at the intensity of this among the different parties, so when you ask that question two democrats, about 40 of democrats say the 2020 immigration plan will be very important to their vote choice. But when you break that out among republicans, it is 63 of republicans who say that will be very important to evaluate in the candidate for them. Like we saw on the prior slide, when it comes to the intensity of this issue, it is much more intense among the Republican Party then it is among the democrats. Just looking at this next topic here, before i turn it over to thisine, is thinking about issue of compromise and what voters are willing to look at when it comes to compromise. What we see is acrosstheboard, 75 or three in four voters say it is important to them that their legislator, their member of Congress Work collaboratively or across the aisle to find solutions to the immigration problem. Only about 20 less than 25 acrosstheboard here, very few people are saying they would prefer their member of congress stick to their principles when it comes to immigration. Strong, broad,ee bipartisan support with 80 of democrats saying they would like their member of congress to be collaborative when it comes to immigration. 75 of republicans. What we have in this next section here that and i will turn it over to, caroline to talk about, some of the specific nuts and bolts of the policy of where republicans rank it in terms of priority when it comes to immigration and how willing democrats and republicans would be to compromise on those specific policies. I will turn it over to caroline to walk through the next couple of data points. Caroline thank you, tyler. Dive into this, i just want to make sure to explain the graph that you all are looking at. Because it can be a little bit confusing at first glance. What we are looking at here is we ask the pup republicans, about seven immigration proposals and we ask republicans taking the survey to rank those proposals in order of importance. The red dots on the screen, those represent the percentage of republicans who rank the proposal to the left as their number one most important proposal. The gang at the screen, you can see 35 looking at the screen, you can see 35 put the wall is our most important priority. We asked democrats about the same republican proposals, but instead we asked democrats how willing they would be to compromise on this proposal in a bill that would also contain their top immigration priorities. The blue dot represents the percentage of democrats who say this is the number one most willing to compromise on policies. For example, 11 of democrats rank that they would be most willing to compromise on the wall. When we are looking at these results, what we want to see is we want to see those dots be closer together in order to find bipartisan solutions. We dont just want them to be closer together, we want them to be further down the access. We want them to matter to voters. Looking at potential for for bipartisanship when it relates to republican policy priorities, we see increasing spending on Border Security is a place where we might be able to get something done. Same time, there are clear barriers to entry when it comes to immigration policy and compromise. We see the most important policy for Republican Voters heading into 2020 is getting a wall built on the southern border. And yet it is not an area where democrats are yet willing to compromise. Now we flip this on its head. We asked democrats to rank democratic proposals in terms of importance and we asked republicans to rank those same proposals on their willingness to compromise on those proposals. Here, for example, 22 of democrats rate providing permanent legal status for those who came to the u. S. As children and are not currently residing legally in the u. S. , known as dreamers, 22 of democrats rank this as their most important policy priority. 20 of republicans are most willing to compromise on that priority. Thinking about where there may be room for middleground, we see dreamers as a place where we might be able to get something done. Time, allowing children seeking asylum at the border to enter the country without fear of a being detained or separated, we see 21 of democrats rank this as their most important policy priority, yet only 11 of republicans rank this as a priority that they would be willing to compromise on. That is an area where there might be less room for bipartisanship. Additionally, you will see the wall is a place prevent preventing the wall is a place at 17 of it republicans rank as our most impotent priority, yet only 8 of republicans would be willing to compromise on the wall. Thank you to bbc for having a spirit i will turn it back over to theresa to talk a little bit more about these results. Theresa as you can see that i press the button wrong . There is some interesting results here first and foremost. Voters want their members to work across the aisle. There still is a lot of room for divide on what exactly the policies are that can get people together. There is some room for compromise. We have a lot more detail on these policy priorities. I do think what this strikes to me is that sometimes i think the framing of the conversation in the National Debate has been very black and white. I see that particularly in the discussion about the wall and order security. The wall has become some bollix, it has become has become some bollix symbolic. I see thati think were in a mow where the issues have been framed by the leaders and the politicians and in the press has led to increasing divisiveness. It does not reflect underlying views of some of these issues. One of the questions we have Going Forward and hopefully our panelists can talk about it is how is the public framing of these issues impact where voters are and the ability to get things done on the issues . We are very much looking forward to our panel. With that, i will welcome priscilla to the stage. She is a reporter at cnn politics covering embers immigration. She joined at cnn this year, previously she was at the atlantic. She has also worked out washington magazine, has been on tv and all the networks you imagine she would be on. We are very happy to have her moderate the panel and she will introduce them as they come up. So thank you. Priscilla thank you. Good morning, everyone thanks for having me. I first want to bring up casey higgins. Ofey has nearly a decade experience in the u. S. House of representatives. Most recently with the office of the House Speaker paul ryan as assistant to the speaker for policy and trade council. In that role, casey was responsible for advising the speaker and the Republican Leadership on a number of matters including immigration. She is a fellow at the bipartisan policy center. Next i want to bring up stephanie valencia. She is the cofounder of a organization that invests in leaders. An idea that will create a more powerful and active electorate. Stephanie is among a small group of advisers who served president obama in senior roles through his president ial campaign in both terms in office. She also served in leadership roles for a number of lawmakers on capitol hill. Next i want to invite kevin madden. He is the executive price Vice President at arnold ventures, one of the nations leading philanthropic organizations focused on delivering Public Policy reforms at the federal, state, and local level. Kevin also served as a senior strategist and spokesman on the three president ial campaigns from 20042016 including the 2012 romney campaign. He is also on the Advisory Board of the policys interaction. Moran, the director of immigration and has been with Organization Since its foundings. She has 20 years of experience of implementing immigration policy. Tyler previously served as senior policy advisor to senator harry reid. She also served as the deputy of policy director for immigration at the white house to mastech policy council under obama. As you can see, our panelists here have an extensive background in immigration policy. We should just jump right into the conversation. I first want to start with reflecting on the survey results that we that were presented to us. If you want to start, casey, what stood out to you and those results . Casey it has been interesting over the past year or so how much immigration in general has become a more important issue for republicans. Think that is part of donald trump bringing a lot of attention to the issue. But it has been interesting to watch our new candidates that come up, members that are getting up and giving speeches, this is think that is part of dd trump bringing a lot of attention to the issue. Included in every single one of those speeches and all of those introductory statements to the public about why these people want to be or continue to be representing them at congress. That shift in the Republican Party in terms of the importance of immigration has been surprising to watch. But also i think it can be helpful in trying to get something done on the legislative front. Stephanie for me, as i read through the more detailed questions last night, what really stood out to me were two things. One, the digging in on the wall, which i just do not understand it. I think republicans at one point where the party of fiscal conservativism. Now they are the 20 billion wall that will be ineffective, waste of resources, largely folks do not think it will work but for some reason, the symbolism of it is so viscerally important to republicans and to conservatives. Thendly, as we looked at substance of what people are willing to agree on, i think the notion that people want their members of congress to Work Together across the aisle, and when you get into the substance of what an immigration policy conversation should be about, you actually see theres not too and there is a lot of willingness to compromise on things like ilLegal Immigration and Border Security on both sides of the aisle. Once you take the wall out of the conversation, that gave me great hope. That is not the National Conversation we are having today. Aslot of willingness to comprome on things like ilLegal Immigration and Border Security on both sides of the aisle. We were talking about before, there used to be a world in which the most controversial part of immigration policy was getting business and labor into a room to negotiate what future flows would be. I would love to live in that world again, because i actually think we can probably be more closer to compromise on some of the substantive stuff. Kevin i would love to live in tt world on the product of immigration, both my parents were born in ireland. Im first generation american. I look to this as an irishman. But upsets over the bad stuff in it. Obsess over the bad stuff in it. With this data and other data ive seen about but upsets overe bad stuff in it. What is driving and shaping partisan worldviews, and for me, i think it demonstrates that you have republicans and democrats with entirely different worldviews looking at this issue. That is one of the huge challenges we are going to continue to have. They say men are from mars, women are from venus. This is republicans are on mercury and democrats are on pluto when it comes to this. They are very far apart. Even though the pole does show glimpses of hope where the numbers align together, the details matter very much. Ultimately, the political process and the legislative process are very far apart. The intensity of the most vocal minorities on this issue i think continue to drive the politics of it. That continues to be a challenge. Tyler i totally agree. We have done a ton of polling. The American Public has supported everything from path to citizenship to humane treatment, acrosstheboard, the public has been there. The problem is now our lawmakers are not there and it is because when you look at the polling where it shows what is important to the American Public, health care and the economy are always going to be top of mind. In our polling, it is for well. Icans as when you have this small minority within the Republican Party that sees immigration as their top issue, they are the loudest. For the republicans who want to stick their neck out and do things in a bipartisan way, they get slammed. Immigration is important to them. There is not a reward when they stick their neck out. Because it is not the top issue for most people. They agree with it, support it, but there are consequences for doing they are not consequent as for doing the wrong thing. Priscilla we did see that acrosstheboard. More motivating issue for republicans than democrats. What does that mean for Democratic Candidates . Both running for president but also for congress . Can they break out in any particular way . We did some palling and it was of swing voters in battleground states. What we saw is people are turned, off by family separation, they are fed up with the rhetoric and policies coming out of this administration, that they support Humane Solutions but they do not know where democrats stand. 30 of voters knew very well what democrats did for. It is as simple as people coming forward and saying i want to solve the issue. And then using their humane and responsible words. I think one, i think as it relates to how democrats in the conversation on the left. We have fallen into this trap around the wall versus open borders. That is a false narrative. Yes, democrats want Border Security. Yes, democrats want Immigration Enforcement. When you have a conversa

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