For political future, and a fabulous teacher. He advised president george w. Bush and recently served as a Senior Advisor to New Hampshire governor chris sununu. My friend mike murphy, veteran of five president ial campaigns, and numerous campaigns for senators and governors, including Arnold Schwarzenegger and mitt romney. Patrick, i will begin with a question. We will start with you. A lot of critics think New Hampshire, with its lack of diversity, should never be the first primary state. What is your response to that . Will this everchanging . Ever change . My response is it will never change. There is a great amount of hostage taking, malfeasance, hold ups, anything but cash changing hands, in order to keep New Hampshire first. I say that with great respect. I think there is an important part of the New Hampshire primary, but more than anything, why is there a New Hampshire . Because New Hampshire says so at this point. They simply will not give this primary up. They have enacted legislation to keep it. They have fought with iowa. The long rates there shall be law reads there shall be no the 70s before and after the contest. Seven days before and after the contest. The 70s before and the secretary of state runs things in New Hampshire with an iron fist. He is good about making sure he was prepared to hold the election new years eve or valentines day to make sure New Hampshire goes first. Injury is extremely homogenized. It does not look like america. It is largely white. It is frankly not as conservative on the republican side as it could be, and it is not as liberal on the democratic side. The Largest Group of voters in New Hampshire are independent voters. That needs on election day, you can poll a ballot from either party. The basis of both parties have an opportunity to vote after being organized, as one woman said in a focus group, i never worked for a candidate i havent danced with at least twice. It is a small state. 1. 3 5 million people. You can drive the length and width of the state easily. It makes for great television, because there are high snowbanks and everyone gets to have a bean jacket and everyone looks like they are on a camping trip. The optics are great. But New Hampshire does not look like america. It will not let go, and it forces people like joe biden to trudge through and put up with what he is going through. Having a runner is tough time in a new poll today. It means members of congress, u. S. Senators, governors who are famous have to do a bit having a tough time of scraping with the locals and practice retail politics. Somehow we believe that makes them a better candidate. The short answer to your question after all that, i dont think it changes. I think the press is in love with covering New Hampshire. Part of it is tradition. The other piece is that humiliation factor that even the strongest candidates are put through, standing on a snow bank and answer the fifth question about the International Monetary fund patiently. It is not easy. [laughter] the criticisms of New Hampshire are completely legit. I am about as bought in to the system as possible. I am someone who went to college in des moines the cousin the Iowa Caucuses. Of the Iowa Caucuses. I am about as biased as you can be on New Hampshire. I say that as a journalist. The criticisms are legit. They are not divers states. They are largely rural states in a time where america is becoming increasingly urban. It frames the conversation around issues that may not be as relevant to most americans. Yes, we were expecting record high turnout in the democratic primary. That would be about a quarter million people, 275. In terms of perspective, it has an outside influence. The criticisms are real. What bothers me about the conversation is you will hear me say this a lot tonight as opposed to what . That is what we should be talking about. We can talk about the analyst criticisms endless criticisms, but a couple dates matter. 1960 matters. Out of the progressive era, we decided these private clubs that are political parties, we should open that up more. We started having primary elections. It doesnt often matter much. The three states that start of the process in New Hampshire the process, New Hampshire was not first. You elected delegates. You did not elect president s. 1952 in the in modern era of the primary, when you did elect president s. Some candidates campaigned. Another important date is 1968, particularly the democratic primary. You may know your history, the famous chicago convention. Lets remember what happened. In New Hampshire, lbj was reduced to 60 of the vote. He won, but mccarthy got close to 40 . As a result, two weeks later, lbj said he would accept the nomination. He wouldnt pursue or accept the nomination. Happened in that 1968. Only 14 states hold primaries then. They would trudge through. Bobby kennedy got in the race. Idea is thesehe candidates were not the person to be nominated. They said it could never happen again. As opposed to what . They still decided Vice President humphrey was going to take over. They changed it again. Into 1976, we will create iowa and New Hampshire. We will let the people decide. Now every state gets involved. As opposed to what . Party insiders who are not represented at all . Jimmy carter, the one person who created this mythology that you can be this random person, the peanut farmer from georgia , and be elected. Here is where we are today, that New Hampshire is still iowa is still first. Their clout has diminished. They may remain first, but we are witnessing the most nationalized president ial primary season we have seen in the modern creation of the last 40 years of this latest information. Consider the latest iteration. In the last dnc debate, there were 20 qualifying polls. 12 were national polls, which were completely irrelevant. I just wanted to have these polls count. Why are we calling people in kansas . It does not take place in texas. New hampshire may persist. The clout is diminishing. I share the skepticism of having two really white states pick our president. I think there are two things that buffer it. After iowa and New Hampshire, you have South Carolina and nevada. South carolina has a Large Population of africanamerican voters. Nevada has a growing population of latino voters. Beyond that, i grew up in pennsylvania and lived in california for more than 20 years. Large states where campaigns are run on tv. Going to New Hampshire and singing barack obama or mitt romney or whoever 20 feet away from you talking to real people, you would never see that in california. It makes the candidates even if they have the most money it next them talk to voters. The voters relish their duty of asking tough questions of these candidates. Chance toves a candidates that dont have money. 2008 campaigne took place in california, would that result be possible . Obam wasa able to meet voters and generate excitement and pulling off a surprise win that gave other people in the country this allwhite state is willing to vote for an africanamerican man for president. I dont know you could have that in a large state. Ive got about an hour on this. [laughter] it is an arms race here. I agree with seema. If you take the first four, iowa caucus, New Hampshire, South Carolina and nevada that four is the lever on the process. It becomes pretty diverse. You get christian conservatives hugevangelicals, you get a africanamerican vote in the South Carolina primary. If you club them together, both regionally and diversity, pretty balanced. The other way is totally nationalized it. The promise nationalize it. The more popular you are, the better you do. This lets a smaller candidate crack the thing and get momentum. I disagree with james. I think they will be influential. What i agree is it has become nationalized, but the states upon which the National Contest is mostly played is the last 60 days in the iowa caucus, then the eight days later in New Hampshire through the nevada caucus into South Carolina. They are not as isolated as before, but they are still the voters that count 100 times more than any of us. Let me be clear when we get to the voting, they could be hugely important. I am talking about the process with which we get there. And the qualifying. If you dont win in these states, you are done. I want to turn from whether New Hampshire is ideal or not, because i dont think it is ever going to change. New hampshire and iowa are both arguably gravel arguably both battleground states. Just dont think it is going to move. I want to handicap the nature primary as of today, first about how much trouble biden is in. He just fell into third place in a new cnn poll at 15 . Is warnings is warrens momentum going to be the same and sanders repeat of 2016 . Sanders one with 22 won with 22 of the margin. The largest margin of victory since jfk. It is huge. He started with such a head start. He has an enormous Steering Committee that was actively meeting each month, beginning in 2017. A lot of that energy is now going to other people. He is still very much in the game. There is no question. This is a state, despite the ups and downs, is framed as a staged as a state that either warren or Bernie Sanders is going to win. That said, iowa could likely have someone who is elevated if that person is not warren or sanders. That person will be a major contender coming into the state. What happened to biden . Biden started out by hacking conventional wisdom by being famous enough to have a National League in early polls lead in early polls. They are like a noise meter on last weeks media coverage. Because biden was famous, that was his initial advantage. I would bribe media pollsters. For pressthe tempo coverage and Everything Else. Once you get to the iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, the buttigiegs, the warrens can show up and start to sell tickets. Biden has had the burden of being front runner in the competitive markets where people slowly know about candidates, he is not faring as well. Iowaden finishes third in but doesnt win ihe is supposed to be superman, but if you cant lift a locomotive there is room for someone else to come racing into New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, you have a big independent vote. Iran mccain i ran mccains campaign. We were competitive. It was not that close. With independence who crossed over. I see a lot of volvos in the parking lot. You suggested buttigieg is not only surging in iowa, but has real potential in New Hampshire. I think this is a game of expectations. This narrative takes a while to play out. The media covers places like iowa and New Hampshire early. Our Attention Spans today are different because of this. In the days before we could instantaneously receive not only the news we wanted to hear, we could sort which means we wanted to believe. We filter a lot of this stuff. The expectation game gets dragged out over a long time. Starts after the election, who makes the first visit to iowa and New Hampshire . Crowdple, that is a big for someone who has never been famous before. Compare it to what happened three years ago. I dont want to play that game. New hampshire is a bit of an enigma. We like to think of the person who talks like i just spoke of. That is not New Hampshire is anymore. Most of those in southern New Hampshire are people who work and live in massachusetts. Read the globe, the largest selling newspaper in New Hampshire. [laughter] it is a very different place. New hampshire was always a place that cherished its independence. The independent called the shots. They hated democrats. They loved republicans, except the republicans they hated. That has changed. The influence of newspapers as a medium has changed. More importantly, the influence of expectations doesnt, which is why murphy and i talk about this a lot. Iowa begets New Hampshire. I dont want to use your exactly which your exact language. New hampshire has one job, to screw iowa after the Iowa Caucuses. They tend to set things right. Iowa picks corns, New Hampshire takes precedence. They will have a caucus picks president s. You have to wrestle with somebody to get to join your team. The expectation is, coming out of iowa, you have to get three tickets. New hampshire laned it down to two. That has changed. The conventional wisdom is different. Does anybody think Bernie Sanders is going anywhere in this race if he doesnt win iowa and New Hampshire . Bernie is making 1 million a week in small dollar traditions. Dollar donations. It is a comfortable way to go. Bernie is a conscience of the Democratic Party. Bernie is watching Elizabeth Warren and joe biden like a hawk. Joe biden has a different problem, expectations. Hes famous. Hes got to do well. Doesconventional wisdom ishfinished second, fin second, third . Does Pete Buttigieg become famous enough where he is the narrative for the next new iteration for the Republican Party . Democrat. Of got republicans on my mind. Sorry about that. Democrats tend to like someone who is about tomorrow. They have always been that. President kennedy we will go to the moon because we can. Passing the torch to a new generation. What happened to that . The last time the Democratic Party nominated someone older than the monument in washington. They will do it again with jill biden if he manages to be dragged across the finish line. Whoever winslem, in mostly white iowa and New Hampshire is going to run into energy cultural demographic buzz saw in seven South Carolina in South Carolina. Africanamerican voters are not a problem for Elizabeth Warren. They are are a problem for Elizabeth Warren. They are not a problem for joe biden. We can talk about pete. Elizabeth warren only got a sentence here, yet she seems to be emerging. Seema you have seen her on the trail, there is a lot of momentum at her events. People are showing up for four hours to get selfies. Her organizations are strong. They have operatives that know what they are doing. There is a sense of excitement around her campaign in both iowa and New Hampshire. It is said only 23 of people were committed to who they were choosing. That shows there is a lot of time, and people need to make up their minds. Buttigieg is an obvious factor. I was hanging out with his Campaign Team in iowa. There was so much energy. If you talk to other campaigns, the one they hear coming behind them is buttigieg. The factor here is buttigieg was able to raise the money. He was able to raise in the second quarter, again in the third quarter. He is spending that money. He has the largest team the most amount of offices in iowa, the most in New Hampshire. He has hundreds of staff. That matters. In the last debate, we would argue buttigieg had a really good debate. So did amy klobuchar. One candidate had the instruction to capitalize on that, buttigieg. She tried. She got 100 million in fundraising in a few hours. She is doing a little bit better than she was a couple weeks ago. Capitalizing, buttigieg made 16,000 phone calls in New Hampshire the next day. The challenge of organization is it is money plus time. If you get money late, you cannot build an organization. Caucus, which is why you have to be careful about these polls, you have a complicated process where people show up on a cold night and speeches are given. Then there are multiple ballots with people dropping out. The social relationships between the people in the smaller counties becomes important. I was for Kamala Harris. She did not make it in Clinton County passed the first ballot. Provided coordinator is my nephew, i have to see him the biden coordinator is my nephew, i have to see him. All this stuff you cant poll comes into effect. The first time someone told me how the Iowa Caucuses are run, i thought someone was pulling my leg. The other thing we did mention in terms of money was biden. He has such little money. His