For now, democratic consultant. Atg starts by looking back 2019, what surprised you the most about where we ended up in the democratic president ial primary . The first thing that surprised he was Kamala Harriss exit. I felt like she had one of the clearer pathways to the nomination and i was surprised about her early exit. The other thing that may not be the surprising is remarkable stability of joe biden and Bernie Sanders throughout this process. Biden has remained consistent in National Polling. Different in iowa and New Hampshire. Bernie has been relatively consistent. Then you have to look at mayor viablemerging as a very candidate coming out of basically nowhere. The mayor of south bend and now he is leading the polls in iowa and New Hampshire. He has a real good chance to win both of those states. Those are some things that surprised me the most. Host who do you think has the easiest path right now . If you look at the nomination i think it is biden. I think biden has demonstrated the ability to have the broadest older africanamerican voters, africanamerican workingclass white voters, bluecollar white voters. I think if you look at his strength nationally he is still the front runner nationally. It may not be the case in iowa or New Hampshire but i think that may not prevent him from winning the nomination. Into South Carolina and those super tuesday states where a significant number of African Americans will vote, that favors biden. Host i want to come back to that. Philip, from a republican perspective. Of the Skeptical Democratic field, what surprised you the most . About all ofink our open primaries from 2008 and the rise and fall of candidates, the rise of warren and Kamala Harris early in the summer. Bernie that biden and are standing in the same position nationally they were a year ago today which is crazy after all the money that has been spent. The only other wild card Michael Bloombergs entry into the race. We saw this on the republican side with giuliani with less money. He never made it really. Bloomberg has more money and confidence because he has done this before. That will be an interesting play. Host on bloomberg and how he is impacting this race. Doug right now he is spending and concentrating his spending on the super tuesday things, he is bypassing the four early caucus states. There is a bit of an uptick nationally for bloomberg. Buysuys our National Cable so that is helping his National Polling. He is around 4 or 5 which is pretty good. It remains to be seen who he is hurting if he is hurting anyone. Everyone thought it would be biden when he came in but that is not clear from me clear to me. The voters for biden would be different than the voters for bloomberg. I am not sure if those of the type of people Michael Bloomberg will be able to put together. I am not sure who he is hurting. Ist what is a coalition that democratic candidate puts together that you are most worried about . The workingclass white voters in the midwest. I think the general election comes down to working white class americans. Phillip i just simply do. In wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan, maine, New Hampshire, minnesota, they are all over 50 . You have to have a candidate that can appeal to a lot of different segments. That is really the fundamental place of where this race will come down to. States, itg those was in wisconsin or michigan or pennsylvania, 28 of twotime obama voters voted for trump in 2016. Who will come in on the democratic side and take that vote . What issue appeals to them and how does looking ahead to the impeachment trial in the senate, do those voters are they watching the impeachment trial . Does that help or hurt . Phillip i think it is those voters. If you look in those states you have the hard right and the hard left and they are not moving anybody. There are is a very small percentage that will move one way or another. The leftflirting with oral map, hillary got 232 electoral votes. Right now the democrats are still sitting at 232, how can they get whatever combination it is . Congressional districts in maine, michigan, wisconsin, what do they need to do to get those votes . Thats where all the money will be spent. There will be secondary states that come into play that that is where it sits right now. When it comes down to impeachment, we are looking at the internal numbers in the states right now. Independents is what we are paying attention to. For the most part the National Polls are saying independents are 44 for in the impeachment. Im looking at the likely voters that are independent that could be swung. We saw thisrt 22 years ago with the 1998 midterm elections during the impeachment. The more democrats play their hand the more trump will be looked at like the victim to the swing voters in the states. Phillip on that point people doug people like to reference 98, we had al gore running with a very Strong Economy that bill clinton gave him and he lost. A lot of that had to do with the fact that he had to run separate from bill clinton and his accomplishment on the economy because of the stain of impeachment and some of his personal issues. If you look at when nixon resigned, gerald ford ran and lost to jimmy carter. The evidence here can be spun both ways. You can look at what happened in 98 with the midterms but you can also look at what happened in 2000. I am not seeing a lot of evidence that impeachment is moving either way. We dont even know if there will be a trial in the senate and what that looks like. You are looking at a lot of the vulnerable House Democrats, their standings remain relatively stable in their districts. There has not been much of an impact. They are facing a ton of advertising against them from a trump super pac, from trump, from aan, from super republican organizations. It has not hurt them. I hope to see more of a defense from other organizations, but it remains to be see what the impeachment will do to this a reduction. To this election. Host as we move forward into 2020 we are looking ahead to the landscape of campaign 2020. If you want to join the conversation republicans 202 7488001. Democrats 202 7488000. Independents 202 7488002. Doug and philip joining us this morning. This is a segment we like to do at the end of the year. , good morning. Ia john, love cspan been calling for 30 years. Host i know you have. Caller i think donald trump is the best leader in history. I am a stock market man and my stock portfolio is up. I have never been so fired up and energized. Best i is in the think he is the best in history. We have good candidates for congress so i think we will take over our house and increase our majority to the senate and i think donald trump will win the biggest landslide in history. We have never had an economy like this. My stock market had my stocks have hit an alltime high. I will run to the polls and vote for donald trump. You do a great job on cspan, you and steve, you have a great network. Didnt you have a birthday recently . Caller yes i was 80 years old. I walk and work out every day, i have to be in good shape to help donald trump. Host happy birthday to you. Have a great day. He thinks republicans will take the house. Phillip i love the excitement and that people are getting involved in calling in, i dont think it will take back the house. They need to win 20 seats, there are four that are not occupied by anyone right now. I think it is going to be hard for republicans. I think the Democratic Congressional campaign committee, i spent doug they have done a good job in terms of raising money. If you look at their fundraising in september they outraised the republicans when the republicans were trumpeting how great the impeachment was for their fundraising. The front liners are the candidates in the most difficult district. There are about 43 of them. Amost all of them have about Million Dollars cash on hand so they are very good financially. They have been able to carve out some independent profiles in their district. If you look at the last two weeks the irony with impeachment is that the president was impeached in the house but they also passed a trade deal. They passed a Prescription Drug deal and an end of the yield and of the year government funding bill. They passed a Defense Authorization bill. They have been able to prove to voters that we will hold the we will hold the president accountable but work with him when it works for our district. The five most undersold stories of 2019 and one of them for bipartisanship, bringing up the deals you just brought up. Some 29 of the 31 House Democrats who sit in districts that donald trump won in 2016 voted for impeachment, are they not worried about impeachment in 2020 . Phillip i think the and rcc will target 55 different races, where they were trump districts in 2018 and democrats took over. It is all in the enthusiasm. We can talk about economic issues, health care issues. Alk about internal foals the reason i trust these more than political news media polls is that if we get it wrong our candidates lose so we have to be really like really right. If you ask any democrat why they are voting and what their top ,ssue is it is not the Economy Health care, environment, it is beating trump. That is the only thing you care of only thing they care about. Get enough done to to gets record enough the enthusiasm up like the republicans did in 2016 . Whether it is a net three seek the republicans need in the senate, everything comes down to that Enthusiasm Gap. Host you say we when you talk about the election work. Do you want to let folks know about the Media Company and what you do . Digital we are a traditional Marketing Company for political campaigns. Host doug, what about your work . Doug we are a longtime political advertising firm. We are working on a make of house and senate and gubernatorial races. Affairs workblic for foundations and nonprofits and businesses. Host you also host a podcast. Doug i also host a podcast. Electable. It is a dive into the 2020 race with my partner. We try to bring a perspective to what is going on and introduce to a bunch of people who are in the game advising these candidates or who have been this is charles out of charlotte, north carolina. Republican, charles, go ahead. I love the cspan channel and i watch a lot, i appreciate the insight. I have a question than a couple of comments. When i see these polls on the ther networks and in newspapers they say a certain percentage of the people are isinst trump, impeachment affecting them, they wont impeach they want to run trump out of office. It seems that there are certain states that are highly populated where every Single Person in that state, whether california, could vote against trump and trump still wins. Gon you say that you need to micro and try to say what do people in these other states how do they feel . Isnter comments are the economy stupid later on in 2020 if you are better off in 2020 isnt that a compelling case . I want to know where is hunter biden . Host philip, why dont you start . Phillip he makes a valid point. Oftrump runs on his record 7. 2 million new jobs, 500,000 , this isring jobs appealing to the midwestern , the lowest Unemployment Rate with africanamericans, asian americans, women, veterans , the economy across the board is completely insanely good. They have to tell that story. N you look at these polls they factor in other states. The National Polling average has joe biden at 28. 3 , Bernie Sanders 18. 9 . Mayor pete 8. 3 and so on. It is mayor pete at 22 and sanders at 20. Warren at 16. You go to New Hampshire, sanders at 19 mayor pete at 17 and biden at 14. How do we read all of this . Pay attention to the early states. The media will pick up on wednesday in the early states and they will be the front runners. This is the hard part for bloomberg, whoever wins iowa they will be the progressive candidate and New Hampshire will be the White Working Class will be theevada union candidate, South Carolina will be the one that won the africanamerican vote. All the storylines will be drummed up by the media. , the states at this rather than the national average. You have often talk about what is the right and wrong polls. Believer, i big love 538, i go there and they aggregate a whole bunch of holes. I direct people there, it is nonpartisan, a very respected site. They have great polls based off of their effectiveness and methodology. Point, the callers point i think signals are important. The National Poll on impeachment is different than one from wisconsin. A National Poll showed 47 people 47 of impeachment people supporting impeachment. The president s approval number in 2016 versus the key states he is running in for reelection, he is doing worse now versus what he got in 2016, so that will be a problem for him. Yes the economy is strong. The economy was strong under president obama. One of the things i have a problem with when we have these partisan backandforth, i will admit the economy is strong under trump. Republicans have to admit that it was strong under obama as gainshis first four your if you look at the dow jones were greater than what donald trump has experienced. Have you had any success getting republicans to admit that . Doug no but it is part of having a conversation in politics. Can trump be disciplined enough to talk about it. When you look at his twitter feed and advertising and the stuff he is doing on social it is all about anything but the economy. To make theng economy the focus of his campaign he has to be talking about it more regularly and consistently. Right now there is no evidence that he can maintain that message. Host you talked about wisconsin, lets go to wisconsin. This is tim, good morning. Thank you for putting me on. The one caller made a good point , we are from california and there are 65 million voters in that state. If the democrats had focused more on 65 million voters in the heartland in the south where the they canof living get 24 senators 65 million votes i donk they are not not support the impeachment because it is going nowhere because republicans control the senate. To targetoing wisconsin because of the Dairy Farmers that are hurting. Wall street and main street are severely disconnected. I guess that is my point. Phillip it goes back to what i said. I think wisconsin Something Like 56 to 60 workingclass white voters. I think this is what he is talking about. This is the rural voter that feels like they have been left out. Over 30 in wisconsin voted for obama twice then voted for trump, why . I dont disagree, doug, that trumps numbers arent as good as they were in 16. People are afraid in the polling to say that they support donald trump. We often know that in some states we are looking at, some of these key states, we are not going to get a large number of hispanic or africanamericans. It is a larger percentage than we had under romney right now for trump. If you can get enough of those votes and carry workingclass white voters among the states that are in play right now that is the coalition trump has to win. Host the caller talked about what democrats are focusing on. Focusing on this coming out amid the Impeachment Vote in the house. This is joe biden releasing this ad during the Impeachment Vote week. American history is not a fairytale. Thomas jefferson wrote what many believed to be the most important document in human history. He was a slave owner. He never lived up to our american ideals, jefferson himself did, but what he wrote its a battle that is never fully finished. If donald trump is reelected he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation. If we give donald trump four the years this will not be country envisioned by washington, this will not be the nation bound together by lincoln , this is not the nation lifted up by roosevelt inspired by kennedy, it will not be the nation that barack obama bent toward justice. We cant let this man be elect d reelected host joe bidens president ial campaign ad. Here is one more from Bernie Sanders from the past week. Senator sanders my opponents would tell me that Campaign Contributions from the wealthy and powerful dont have an impact. Why do you think the ceos are making the contributions . Because they are first in line to get their concerns taken care of. I believe in democracy. Our campaign is funded by the working people of the country. We need to take on the corporate he leads. Corporate elites. I am Bernie Sanders and i approve this message. Host one last ad from mayor pete. I think all of us want the same thing at the end of the day , we know what a gift it would be to the future and the country for literally anybody appeared to become president of the. Nited states [applause] i dont know how many now, we are up to 25 something have run for president in the Democratic Party. The moment we have a nominee, 24 who are not that nominee are going to have to rally around the one who does. Sure there is not too much to ask for forgiveness for by that time. Some of thee of Democratic Campaign ads on the air right now. Right now we are looking at the messages and what plays the best. Joe biden is presenting himself as a healer, someone who can come in and clean up the