Seems to be fast moving and changing. Ofare part of the University Virginia center for politics. I am based in washington, d. C. Host what is different for the super tuesday . For me, there is a lot more influx. You had two major candidates drop out in the last day. Pete buttigieg and amy klobuchar. There is a real effort from Democratic Party leaders to send a message to voters that we want you to vote for joe biden. We think joe biden is the better option. We suggest you vote for him. Klobuchar and buttigieg dropping out and endorsing biden suggests the threat Democratic Leaders feel from the sanders possible nomination. Im not going to tell you they are necessarily right about that. That is what they are communicating. It seems to be having some effect. There have been latebreaking surveys that show biden doing great. States like virginia and North Carolina seem like they were close in pulling. Biden might win those states by double digits according to some of these surveys. We dont know. You have a big chunk of early votes cast in states like North Carolina, texas, and california. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people who voted for candidates who are no longer in the race. Tom steyer dropped out, too. A lot of those votes are going to basically be wasted. It is an uncertain environment. Here is another way it is different in 2016, Republican Leaders did not want donald trump to be the nominee. Some of them tried to make that clear, that the Republican Voters who came to dislike their Party Leadership said we dont care, we are going to nominate trump. They were right. He won. The Republican Leaders that the leadership wanted to thousand eight, they lost, and in 2008 , they lost, and trump won. Democrats dont dislike their leadership as much as republicans do. Host the total amount of delegates that are available today, what does the path to victory look like for the candidates involved . Guest to me it is south versus north or the rest of the country. The west is part of that. Were expecting Bernie Sanders to win california. He should win comfortably, although even california is getting closer. Although many votes have been cast, a majority of the vote is still out there. In california, so long as your ballot is postmarked today, it will be counted. The california vote count will take weeks. We will not know for a long time who gets which delegates. That is the biggest delegate prize. Sanders looks research to win it pretty certain to win it. Maybe not as big of an advantage as we thought a couple of weeks. Elizabeth warren trying to defend massachusetts. There might be some late movement to warren because of buttigieg and klobuchar dropping out. We have minnesota, Amy Klobuchars home state, i think sanders is now favored to win. There,en were to surge that might tell us some positive things about midwest and southeast. Where biden is going to be tested. I think that biden could have a decent night without winning every southern state, but i think biden should win every southern state, and that includes texas. Sanders has generally been leading there. A lot of early votes have been cast, but the polls are picking up on late Movement Toward biden. Host we will drill deeper into that. Let me introduce folks into the conversation. 202 7488000 for democrats. Republicans 202 7488001. Independents 202 7488002. You can text us at 202 7488003. If you have questions for kyle kondik about super tuesday, we will take those in a moment. Guest it is the state where biden is strong in the south. Biden does well with black voters. Unlike the other southern states, texas is a very diverse population, but that comes more from hispanic americans than africanamericans. Sanders has performed much better with hispanics then he has with blacks. Texas is kind of different from the rest of the south as classically defined. Some people might think of it as more of a Western State. We saw in the one Western State we had, nevada, sanders did very well. I think that is why sanders has been leading. There are also a lot of white suburbanites in that state who may be getting the signal now that biden is the person to vote for. We did not even mention Michael Bloomberg has spent this outrageous amount of money, and this is his first test. I think the race is breaking terrible for him. Carolina,n won south there were all these signals for people to vote for biden. Bloomberg as of today, it is possible he might win a state or two, but i cannot point to anyone and say he is a favorite. Host has he visited any of those states . Guest he has been visiting all over the place, but mostly it is his ad spending. He did not perform that wellguen the debates. The first one he was in was widely watched. You only get one chance to make a First Impression. The First Impression a lot of people have of bloomberg is his advertising, but Political Science research argues that while advertising can have some effects, the effects of advertising can be ephemeral. If you are hammered every day with advertising, there may be diminishing returns and people may get sick of it. I would argue that biden does not have a lot of money. He has not been running a lot of bats. Of ads. What he has gotten in terms of positive earned media the past couple of days is more valuable than anything bloomberg can buy on television. Not only did he prove himself in South Carolina and with the state that he should have one a lot by a lot, he has gotten this consolidation among the nonsanders part of the party with global chart and buttigieg buttigiegbuchar and endorsing him. Host is there an existential debate going on about what the Democratic Party is . Guest yes. If this race boiled down to sanders versus biden for the nomination, voters are going to have pretty clear choices. Sanders is just more left wing on a lot of things. I think with the sanders folks would tell you, and i think this is legitimate, sanders might be able to make a cleaner argument against donald trump because he does not have some of the baggage biden has. War, supported the iraq and even though trump was not in government at the time it was happening and arguably supported it at the time, he was able to fashion himself as an iraq war eraic and a critic of bush foreign policy. Things. There are other biden is sort of talked about, we are going to have a big tent Democratic Party, liberal but not too liberal, work with republicans. I think that is appealing to a lot of people. Sanders is like, we are not going to work with the republicans. They are not quick to work with us. He talked about political revolution. We are going to have a liberal president pursuing a very aggressive liberal agenda and things like medicare for all that biden does not support. Host our guest is kyle kondik until 9 00. Sergio starts us off in florida. Good morning. Caller good morning. How are you . Host doing well. Caller yes, i was impressed yesterday with everybody coming together and endorsing joe biden. That shows the strength of unity. My question is, do you think that Elizabeth Warren has a chance or Michael Bloomberg to rise to the occasion in super tuesday . Guest great question. Important question. Andink for Buttigieg Klobuchar getting out, it helps them. You have a 50 delegate threshold to hit 15 delegate threshold to hit in the state and in some individual congressional district. It is all very complicated. Dont assume that all of those voters are going to go just to biden or sanders. It is going to be a mix. It seems like biden may benefit more than anybody else, but for someone like warren or bloomberg who were at 12 , if that gets them to 15 , they will start hitting delegate thresholds. That arguably means those two candidates are still in the game even though biden and sanders are going to have significantly more delegates. Host delegate threshold, explain what that is. Guest the way the democrats allocate their delegates is proportional. On the republican side in 2016, it was different. Winner take all. Democrats rules are all the same, primary or caucus, it is 15 support threshold to get delegates at the statewide level and at the sub statewide level. California, you can look at that as 54 individual contests within that state. There is a significant block of delegates awarded statewide, 270 thatthen there are are awarded in each of the 53 congressional districts. Each of these congressional districts are different. Ones that are going to be heavily africanamerican, it may be possible that biden is the only one that gets delegates out of those places. Districts that are younger or more hispanic, maybe sanders is the only person that hits the threshold. The other thing about california, the vote count is going to take weeks. There is no conspiracy about it. That is just how they do it out there. They spent a lot of time to verify the ballots and whatnot. We cannot really make any judgments about california for weeks. It is also going to be where sanders gets probably the most delegates and his biggest delegate lead of any of the states. Andd on our own assessment many analyst assessments, a lot of us were coming in today assuming sanders was going to finish the day with more delegates. I still think that is the case. We have to account for this late changing environment in which biden seems to be creeping up. If sanders comes out of today with a delegate lead only in the double digits as opposed to triple digits, that is potentially an issue for him. A fromthis is liz twitter saying Mike Bloomberg has been ignored, if he has a surprise good showing, does that change the race . Guest it might. That is probably worse for biden then sanders. Bloomberg are competing for more of the same voters. All sorts of different voters have different ways of looking at it. It is easy for people like me to say sanders is liberal and limburg and biden are more centrist, therefore everyone who thinks of themselves as liberal or centrist will vote for biden or bloomberg. To a lot of people they are a lot different. If bloomberg starts hitting these 15 thresholds, he starts but teamleading delegates. The next time we have a debate is scheduled for march 15. There will probably only be for people on the stage or less. The fewer candidates there elevates the status of everyone else. For whatever candidates bloomberg might have as a candidate, im not saying his money does not matter, it is just some things are more idaho, democrats line, jesse. Hello . Caller hello . Host you are on. Go ahead. Caller yes. I was calling because earlier you had a caller who was suggesting that Bernie Sanders is representing the Democratic Party and he is not a true democrat. Think the president republican, a true and he hasnt had any buddy on the republican ticket to run against him. Complete going for all the things Bernie Sanders is for, i do agree on if thee for all and that , um. Host we get your point. Thank you. Uest in some ways sanders distance from the leadership of his own party is an asset for some people. There are a lot of people who people who like sanders who do not like the Party Leadership or joe biden. The president benefited from that in 2016. I do think that Republican Base voters are more skeptical of their leadership then Democratic Base voters. Theight be seeing some of thi evidence of that in the shift towards biden. The other thing is that the way that the nomination process has been opened up in recent decades, you dont really have to be a republican in Good Standing or democrat in Good Standing to win the nomination. All ofties have ceded the institutional power in selecting the nominee to the voters themselves, and in some states independents can cross over and vote in the democratic primary. Frankly, there is some research that suggests the parties have ceded it to the media to some degree. Who ends up doing well in some cases is determined by how much free media they get. Donald trump was always willing to be on television. He had these rallies. They were interesting and entertaining to a lot of people. All of that coverage helped him. All of the coverage of biden has helped him in recent days. To me that is more driven by actual events in that he did win big in South Carolina and two of the major candidates dropping out and endorsing him are newsworthy events. Cover,e press decides to and the press is not a monolithic thing either, that can determine which candidates are in the spotlight. I have seen a lot of complaints from Elizabeth Warren supporters that she does not get the coverage she deserves. I think a lot of candidates who are not polling where they want to be do blame the press sometimes. Next, republican line, jean. Caller hello. How are you this morning . I love washington journal. I get to the point where i have to turn it off sometimes when it is not conducive to my spiritual wellbeing. Call is that i am not a trump fan, but i voted for him. I voted early, and i voted for him because the democrats scare me. Ok . The willingness of people wanting to vote or anybody no matter what their policy is just a vote against trump is not responsible. We dont know what sanders is going to do. We dont know how he is going to make medicare for all and pay for it, if he is going to have open borders and let everybody in. Is he going to how is he going to distribute the money . Everybody thinks they are going to be as rich as rich people. If you study socialism, that is not the way it works. Guest thanks for the call. Heres the thing. I think a lot of democrats are motivated to vote against trump, and a lot of republicans are going to be motivated to vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and whoever the democratic nominee ends up being. There is this phenomenon called. Egative partisanship the idea of negative partisanship is that you are voting against the other side more than for your own site. There are key policy differences among the candidates. Republicans are animated by some judicial choices and the fact that the president has made a lot of judicial choices that republicans have liked. That is a feather in his cap. For all of trumps distinctive this from distinctiveness from the republican party, there are tax bills that he signed that any republican would sign. There are a lot of democrats that disagree with those choices and are going to rally around whoever the democratic nominee ends up being. The question is, and this is what a lot of democratic elites that sanders is to farleft, and he is going to scare away highly educated affluent suburbanites. Texas by 16. On trump won it by 9. These things are based on personality, but they are also based on policy differences. Just because there are things that republican support that democrats hate and vice versa, you have to knowledge the legitimacy of the other sides views. Host the Denver Channel highlights today in colorado it is the first time they are holding a primary. Guest a lot of states that held caucuses in 2016 have moved to primaries to the point where we have i went and nevada as caucuses, although nevada changed their rules so much that it was almost like a primary if you early voted. Caucuses have been dying out. Minnesota,aine, three prominent states voting today moved from caucuses to primaries. Sanders did pretty well in caucuses last time. As of right now, sanders is probably favorite to win all three of the states that switch. Switched. Colorado is probably the safest of those. Minnesota is in flux. Amy klobuchar probably would have won it if she was in it, but shes not. Biden is going to do well in the south. Maybe he wins every single state in the south. That is what i would guess, although texas is a major question mark. Does biden win anywhere outside of the south . Does he come close to winning anywhere outside of the south . Some of the major contests coming up are outside of the south, michigan, washington state, missouri, and then another big day where biden is probably going to win florida, but you have illinois and ohio. Those are going to be important states. Can biden compete outside of the south . ,oes he come close to minnesota massachusetts, or main . Does he hit the delegate threshold in colorado or utah . That will show more strength provided going forward. Providing going forward. Four biden going forward. Some indication couple of days ago that sanders might pick that off. We dont have a lot of data for tennessee, arkansas, oklahoma. Those are states that are whiter overall, more white working class. In the midst of the horrible wreckage for sanders in South Carolina, he did carry fo voters that did not have a college degree. Thoselook at one of states. Southere seeing in the suggests to me that biden should be favored. Host there were six People Killed as the result of a tornado in nashville, tennessee. How does that impact voting today . Process dont think the is modified at all. Au may be look if there is Natural Disaster going on, it may be distracts people from voting. This is one of the arguments for early voting. Gives people a longer time like to vote so if something happens to people on election day, they were already able to voted the downside of early voting is sometimes you vote for someone who has dropped out of the race. Kondikhis is kyle joining us from the university of Virginia Center for politics. He is the managing editor of sabatos crystal ball. From missouri, independent line, tony. Caller i think the democrats need to look back. The reason Hillary Clinton lost was because of her criminal endeavors. Joe biden is no different. He is going to lose because of his criminal endeavors. Guest i personally would not use the word criminal to describe them, although certainly there were corruption questions with Hillary Clinton or questions of impropriety. That Hunter Bidens job with this Ukrainian Oil and making money on this board, republicans have been arguing there is an appearance of impropriety. I dont think there is much proven in terms of the Vice President actually doing corrupt things himself, but the thing about the president is he has a great ability to drag people into the mud with him. Is a criticism, but it is also kind of a compliment just from a heart political sense because the president is very good at tarnishing his enemies. What led to impeachment was the president s desire to dig up unsavory information about one of his leading rivals. People can disagree about whether that rose to the level of impeachment and removal, and ultimately the senate decided it did not, but we know the president seems to want to disqualify joe biden. We even see him in his public commentary trying to rile up sanders supporters to say the the race are rigging against him, which i think is pretty strong language, but that may resonate with the sanders voters who feel alienated from the leadership of their own party. Let me take a step back. I cannot sit here and tell you that joe biden is necessarily a way stronger candidate than Bernie Sanders. A lot of democrats feel that way, and i understand why in that sanders is more leftwing than biden, and there is a fair amount of Political Science research that candidates who are closer to the middle perform a little better, but biden does have some liabilities. I think some of the stories that have come out about bidens son are things republicans will use against him, and whether you think that is fair or unfair, that is how the campaigns will unfold. Host from missouri, independent line, tony. Caller yes, also, as far as concerned, he is will never be able to fulfill these promises as long as the sun is held by the republicans. Great point. If you go through what sanders talks about, it is a laundry list of ambitious Public Policy proposals. If the filibuster still exists in the senate, even if the democrats win the senate majority, and republicans are narrowly favored to hold the senate, you are not going to be able to get any of these things done if the Senate Competition remains republican. This is what a lot of democrats are using as a way to attack sanders. Maybe this belief is true. Maybe it is not. If sanders were to win, he would not generate the necessary coattails to carry the senate along with him. That is particularly interesting to me in that a lot of the Key Senate Races this year are in the sun belt. The democrats are very reliant on new democrats in those places. People who may have been republicans or independents who have moved over to the Democratic Party because they do not like trump. That is the thing. Talked about this a lot in his Campaign Recently and reiterated it in his endorsement of joe biden last night, which is that not only do you have to win the white house, you have to have a candidate who can carry senate and house candidates across the finish line. A lot of democrats believe sanders is not that candidate. They may be right about that or wrong about that, but they are communicating that to the public. President off his twitter feed this morning, targeting texas and oklahoma, sayingy ar mini Mike Bloomberg will kill fracking and pipelines. Guest you could almost say that the president is sort of
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