Transcripts For CSPAN Washington Journal Christopher OLeary

CSPAN Washington Journal Christopher OLeary July 12, 2024

Joins us now via zoo for zoom. Senior economist at the nonprofit Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in kalamazoo, michigan. Christopher oleary, lets work away backwards. Can you explain what president trumps executive action when it came to unappointed insurance he signed this weekend, what it did in how it compares to what was offered under the cares act . Guest good morning, john. Thank you for having me on. Pleasure to be on washington journal. Certainly i can address the executive order. I read it. Theink i understand objective. Up and talke back about this whole idea of supplementing unemployment. It is interesting. There have been eight recessions since the eisenhower administration. Every one the federal government has extended the duration of regular state on employment insurance benefits. There was a modest additional compensation added during the Great Recession in 2009. 25 added. Check. D to every benefit it went largely unnoticed. Recognized the existing unappointed insurance system is inadequate in many ways. In particular in terms of income replacement. , think the executive order lets hope it was an effort to bridge the impasse. 600 lumpsumhe made a lot of sense in many ways. Reasons andlot of very little negative affect found in research from it. A lot of positive effects in terms of social distancing and income security. The executive order, i dont know it has standing. I think the house in the ways and means committee, representative neal has the purse strings. Athink they will be involved some point before this thing gets resolved. The president proposed something modeled on the disaster unappointed insurance program, an emergency program. Bill, the cares act inc. Something inc. Unemployment insurance. Disaster Unemployment Insurance requires emergency decorations. The current arrangement is similar. Waspresident s proposal 300, which was the last bargaining position out of the senate on this. Bes said 400 would sufficient. He is counting on in the executive orders to pony up the extra 100 per check. Benefits, laste week there were 17 million checks passed out. 100. That is 1. 7 billion per week. The states are already facing difficulties paying the regular benefits. 19 states have applied for loans from the treasury. 11 have received advances from the treasury. Level of preparation going into this, the state reserves are being depleted. Remember, john, the worst ever week of Unemployment Insurance was aboutthe history one million a week. Day, after st. Patricks that week there were 6 Million People claiming benefits. That is a staggering difference. That persisted for a couple of weeks. Finally dropped to about 3 million. Now it is running about 1. 5 million, greater than the historic high ever. The system is paying out benefits. It is doing its function to a large extent. I read it carefully, the president s proposal. I was disappointed to see the president s supplement would not provide any benefits to people with weekly payments under 100. I asked myself why. The unappointed Insurance Programs serve many people. I have done a lot of work on the relationship between Unemployment Insurance and public assistance, food stamps. People who get a little bit of unappointed insurance really helps them avoid sliding into poverty. Who are lowwage workers or parttime workers and may qualify for a lowlevel benefit, and may qualify for a lowlevel benefit. Benefits can be as low as five dollars a week in some states. Many states it is 50 per week. Why would we exclude them . The supplement is giving people security. It is promoting social distancing and helping tamp down the virus. Me, to end o september on december 6. I hope i addressed some of that. Host we want to talk to some of those people you are referring to and invite those folks to call in. A special line if you are unemployed, 202 7488000. We want to work you into this conversation. Business owners, 202 7488001 is the number. All others, 202 7488002. Andep dive into federal state Unemployment Insurance this morning with Christopher Oleary of the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Can you briefly explain who you are and how long you have been around . Guest sure, thank you. This year is our 75th anniversary. Upjohn institute was established in 1945 right after the war. It was established based on an endowment. The founder of the upjohn drug up a month before he died. Dr. Upjohn grew up on a farm. Ofthat time it was a period transition from a farm economy to an industrial economy. , amployment insurances program for an industrial economy where people are separated from the land and the means of subsistence. He set up a farm outside of kalamazoo where people could set up a garden, maybe build a cottage, grow crops. They had some assets that were put into the endowment. Some people did use it as that. Some people got grants. Then the institute operated as a grantmaking foundation. It was finally created as an institute for research in 1945 to study on and ways of dealing with unemployment. That is about the Upjohn Institute. Host Christopher Oleary, senior economist. You have spent a lot of time studying unemployment. When it comes to today and what is happening now with the pandemic, how Many Americans are currently receiving some form of Unemployment Insurance, whether from the state or federal government . Guest last week, the report comes out every thursday morning told us that 31 Million People were continuing claimants on on appointment. 17 million were regular state beneficiaries, state programs. There were about 13 million on the special pandemic unemployment assistance, which is available for selfemployed, gig, and contract workers who dont qualify for regular state benefits. There are several categories. You might not meet the eligibility requirements if you are at home taking care of kids who are in school. You could qualify under pandemic on employment assistance. Unemployment assistance. There are about 13 Million People receiving that. 31 Million People is a staggering number. A fifth of the workforce. Host do we have a total of how much has been spent on Unemployment Insurance additionally because of the coronavirus pandemic . Has anybody totaled that of yet . Recessionng into this there were about 76 billion in reserves. That was enough under recent 1. 6rios to pay about billion a year. 18 months, 19 months of benefits. Given the rate of payout is about three times the worst ever, that reserve level is evaporating in about seven months. Almost every state will have to borrow. Right now there is zero interest being charged on loans to states, at least through december 31. I think any new legislation needs to address an extension of the interestfree period. Injected 100 hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. A major reason why we have not slipped into a worst recession at this point. Host we would like to chat with a few callers. Plenty for you this morning. Christopher oleary with us until 9 00 a. M. Vegas on the line for those unemployed. Good morning. Caller good morning. Host you are on with Christopher Oleary. Caller i am unemployed right now. Now i dont know if this is a good idea but should they give mandatory stimulus checks to people who are billionaires and they should give nothing to people who are unemployed . Guest thank you for your question. What you are talking about is the payroll Protection Plan and the comparison between the payroll Protection Plan and the Unemployment Insurance. The payroll Protection Plan, i have heard numbers about that. 99,000 perabout person to maintain jobs under the payroll Protection Plan. Anybody with income over it will pay all employer expenses. The money can pay for rent, utilities, the cost of Health Insurance. If you think about the Unemployment Insurance i think the payroll Protection Plan was a way to insulate people from slipping into the unemployment programs. Everybody had to rely on the programss, more people would realize the need to improve the programs. If you think about the Unemployment Insurance program, even with the 600, given the average weekly benefit is about rehundred 75, you are talking 375, you are talking about 1000 a month income replacement on average, which is someone making 52,000 a year. Which is a workingclass person in America Today who has real expenses and real bills to pay and concerned about going out into the virus and wants to avoid transmission. Ingeniousenius to give people adequate security. I think if everybody was looking at the Unemployment Insurance system as their means of support during this crisis, instead of maybe Something Like the payroll Protection Plan which has been suggested some very wealthy people have benefited from, i think we would all have more interest in maintaining an adequate replacement throughout employment insurance. Thank you. Host alexander on the line for unemployed americans. Daytona beach, florida. Good morning. Caller i have one question. Do you have information about the state of florida or who i can contact . I was locked out three weeks ago and i have not received anything. I called every number i can. Emailed. D i they say i am locked out. When i talked to the agency handling system, they said you have to wait until they contact you. Yeah. Thank you, alexander. Excellent question. We have been studying systems for 70 years here at the Upjohn Institute. We looked at with the condition of the under flame insurance system was before the crisis. The Unemployment Insurance system was before the crisis. It varies between about 11 or 12 of all unemployed floridians getting unappointed insurance to about 52 of new jersey residents who are unemployment getting benefits unemployed getting benefits. There are other states clustered at the low end. Several states in the southeast have very low recipients he rates. Recipientcy that meant those states were particularly less prepared to handle an influx of claims. It is not surprising the system is slow. I think you should not give up. If you have numbers you can careeronestop. Org and they will help you. Please keep calling. Dont give up. If you bought something on the internet and you had a problem returning it, you know it is hard to get through those people. Sometimes you have to sit and wait for hours. You have money on the line coming back to you. From the date you first are separated going back at least 12 weeks, you should be able to be retroactively paid. Having difficulty getting through the system, keep trying. Act,ilys first pandemic first stimulus bill had 1 billion for state administration. That was the first thing put on the front line. We are going to need the Unemployment Insurance system. We want to fund the administration, but it is hard to do it overnight. I think florida is trying to supplement temporary staff, improve computer systems. You just need to keep trying because that lump sum will help you get through this crisis. Numbers get a lot of and try to sort throh them for the viewers. You talked about the more than 30 million americans who have received Unemployment Insurance throughout this process. Can you square that with the monthly unemployment report that 16. 3 unemployed persons in this country. How does that work . Guest they are based on different data. The undiplomatic insurance is claims data the Unemployment Insurance is claims data. I think close to 50 Million People have applied for benefits. I think 40 Million People have received benefits at some point since midmarch to now. There are still 31 million unclaimed. On claims. , they useoyment rate a monthly survey. They interview people during the week with the 12th of the month and the week. Are you available or actively seeking work . They will classify u. S. Unemployed you as unemployed. You have to answer affirmative to all of those. There is some slippage just in the timing of the thing. At this point i think a more reliable measure of the stress and the economy is the unemployment numbers. If you try to get numbers, john, at the local or in many states, small states, the numbers are based on the Unemployment Insurance claims. The unemployment numbers. They combined census data and Unemployment Insurance claims data. They have about 40 applications to go through. Butnt tell you exactly why there are different methods of gathering data. I think there is no question it is a serious crisis right now. Host we have the line for business owners. Tony is on that line from missouri. Good morning. Caller good morning. Host turn down your television so we can hear you well. Caller yes. I am a handyman service. I work on referral. My business has not been affected so much by this pandemic. I see a lot of businesses that have been affected. I see how it is working. How all of this beneficial money is working against those businesses. The employers are laying off the employees so they can collect the large check every week instead of the smaller check the business pays them. They are working on parttime so they can collect a parttime paycheck and a fulltime unemployment check. On occasion i have to have people help me. I dont keep fulltime employees but it is difficult to get people to work now with this free money. Opinionrious as to your on that. Host thanks for the call. Christopher oleary . Guest thats a very important point, tony. I want to thank you. You are one of the essential workers out there continuing to serve the public during this crisis. Toam sure when you go in provide your service at a business or a home you are trying to practice social distancing. Know, it is a challenge for all of us. But not every business operates one on one like you do. Some businesses, even Small Businesses have several workers in a very close space. Workly, by using the sharing program, an employer could reduce hours for everyone in the workplace by 50 . Everybody continues to get paid half their wages, but there is enough space in the workplace for them to avoid social contact. They get half of their own employment benefit. Instead of getting 400 unemployment benefits, they would get 200. Plus, during the period up to july 31, the 600 extra. Owner, instead of laying half his workers off completely and operating, he keeps everybody on. They get their benefits and maybe Health Insurance and other things, and they would also equally get supplemented. In this period where we are not interacting we have to be at home. We are insecure often at home. Frankly, i would not be surprised if your business benefited from people having a few dollars to repair a few things about the house. Is always more than one way to look at things. I wish you well in this crisis. Host vancouver, washington. This is albert on the line for those that are unemployed. Good morning. Caller good morning john and christopher. I had a question regarding what employers pay. I am unemployed in washington. There is a huge debacle in the state. Anybody politically astute nose it was knows it was hacked by to 1igeria group up billion. They shut down unemployment for hundreds of thousands of washingtonians immediately upon investigation, which has been a travesty. You could go on facebook. There is a support group. Upwards of close to 20,000 participants. Whatcurious about an employers pay into unappointed insurance. I am 58 going on 59. Is it based on the number of employees . Are they multinational . Small business . What the right is . Does it vary from state to state . Anytime you offer a system that will pay someone 600, you will get some outliers, right . They will be when you include a lot of different people, the parameters changed dramatically. That is a big assumption just go back to work your job. There is a huge divide as to what the pay rate is when you do work state to state. It is no wonder people would say i will collect the 600 because i work hard and i get paid very little. At 59, i have worked since 16. I have a tremendous work ethic. I have done right by the entire system and i lost faith incredibly in america during this pandemic. The variety of systems that have failed the constituency. The guys in d. C. , pick a side of the aisle, i dont care. When they are bickering americans are suffering right now. We are getting this pittance from the state. Those guys in washington continue to say i will take a threeday weekend, for perhaps taking a full week off again. It is astounding and saddening. Host Christopher Oleary, go ahead. Guest you put a lot of things on the table. Number one, thank you for calling in from vancouver. Thank you for being s up so early in the morning. Vancouver, washington. I have been there and worked in Washington State. Ive had several Research Projects stating back to the 1980s. Washington state has one of the best Unemployment Insurance systems in the nation. Scam claims, ok, in 1980 when we ran some employment bonus experiments, and there is a difference between the bonus would you give people cash af

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