Pollsters joining us today. House,lachlan and neil neil was the pollster for the previous republican nominee, mitt romney, 2012. You can follow along the and ask usn olitico. S, p we are excited to have this conversation. Thanks. Good to be here. I want to start with the question i get most when people in a speakingr gig or in general conversation, to what extent polling has underestimated President Trump. Both of you believe there is underestimation going on. John, what drives that . I think it is significant. Two things. Reporting, you are ahead of the curve in terms of the changes technology has made. It is harder to get voters period. You focused on the education levels, workingclass levels. Polls structured to keep up with technology and where people are and being able to get a hold of them, that is one challenge. Then there is the challenge of donald trump. He is a unique figure in history. Beat thehe odds he odds. It was a close race. The strategy was built on new voters. 9 million new voters made the difference. People forget this. We won a close race, 78,000 votes in three states, 139 million and there were still 80 Million People t eligible to vote. A lot of the polling did not capture that. [indiscernible] assumed turnout for Hillary Clinton would be the same as barack obama and she was not obama. The media has gotten more hostile. [indiscernible] medianeral establishment does not like donald trump. And if you think you are polling on behalf of the media [indiscernible] trump orders [indiscernible] basic questions like, who you think is going to win . It is harder than usual. On best polls will be based past turnout, the last midterm election, which was historic or the president ial election, historic, and now, there is a challenge of a pandemic, unemployment levels, unrest in the cities and now you have two hurricanes hitting during the rnc. [indiscernible] are the polls underestimating republicans . Let me go back. John raises good points. We found in focus groups in 2016, we would ask people who they are voting for, and what was interesting is, not until one voter was brave enough to say they are voting for donald trump, did other voters around the focus group table also admit, confess they were trump supporters. Part of it is because of the polarization today. Republicans really dont like democrats. Democrats dont like republicans. There is a real shyness, and unwillingness to tell people who you are voting for because they dont want to get into arguments. We did postelection work in california and michigan after 2016 and found more than 30 of trump voters said, during the campaign, they were unwilling to tell others they were supporting donald trump. They turned out to be, look at the crosstabs, more likely to be women, higher educated, living in the bluest counties. Really interesting. Primaries,t, during 2016, the Interactive Voice Response data where people just have to press a button who you are voting for, trump scored three points higher on those types of polls then he did with a live interviewer. That speaks volumes. Finally, recent polling in iowa and north carolina, 35 of voters in each state say they know someone who is a trump supporter who wont tell anyone but their closest supporters. 9 . T no. Is it a couple points . Yes, probably. Lets stick to a national metric. Job approval rating. August is not necessarily an indicator for november. I would like to wrap this question in Historical Context and look at the last six president ial campaigns where the incumbent president was seeking reelection and compare that to where donald trump is today. Pointss running 210 ahead of where bush and carter were doing at this point in august and they both lost. Points behindng where other successful incumbents were at this point. Watermark onest 26 list is obama, 2012, job approval. Why is 42 , where trump stands to winenough for trump in november . You tend, you tend, if im correct, that is all online . No phone interviews, right . With that, you have a certain type of voter. A lot of the polls for job approvals are really differently done and undervalued to republicans. Abc, nbc, 26 ike, republicans and the last exit when for the 2018 bad year republicans lost the house, was 33 republican and the one in 2016 was 33 republicans. What is relevant is, the modeled after the 2016 turnout, yesterday they had him at 51 job approval. What is important about that is the last two president s to be reelected is really polarized. 9 11, the parties are really polarized. Reelected,ay he was he had 51 job approval and he got 51 of the vote. Obama, hurricane sandy, he had a renaissance and got reelected with 51 . I do not think the president is that low. Is the highrange 40s, and some of the polling 51 . Im touching that is about getting reelected. There models eight years ago, they had barack obama, when he got reelected, at 48 at this time. I think the president is doing better than the Morning Consult poll states and i think that has to do with methodology. Four years ago, there was no job approval. But there were similar polling between clinton and the president. The president knew we were in a close race and he worked hard enough that we won that in a very close election. Right now, i am thinking the president is covering close to 51 of job approval. Certainly, the convention helps get our message out. [indiscernible] a lot of the polling under reports republicans. In june, you authored a Campaign Memo via the president s twitter feed, i want to quote from it. The latest polls must be intentional. Cnn, who have democratic operatives have consistently under pulled republicans and recording bias polls. You described this as an intentional strategy. Neils firm is the republican half. [indiscernible] your argument is that this is intentional in order to suppress republican votes. Politico, that is not our intention. Viewers how you think that works. If neil was taking care of that pole, we would do much better. A lot of these are adults. 240 million eligible adults to vote . It is registered voters. There are a lot more registered [indiscernible] because of the historic challenges of this election. 150 million. It is still a likely voter model. In june was only 26 republican. You have really smart people working on these polls for the networks. I cant believe they dont think the likely voter model is not you know, they are not shooting for it. They are doing this much broader audience that is, you know, clearly, clearly discounts our voters and undervalues them. I am sure neil agrees with me, the republicans will be over 30 of the turnout. If it is not, the campaign [indiscernible] we are wasting our time talking about national polls. In all seriousness. [indiscernible] i didnt do one Single National survey during the entire campaign. Not one in 1. 5 years of work. Our universe, our country was made up of the 12 states that were the target states. If you look at polling this year and what is going on, they was the lack ofin 16, good quality state polling. That is still a problem. In these target states, hardly any have been conducted in the past month. That is ridiculous. It is easier for large media to do national polling. Very few do statewide polling. Look at those national numbers. The president ial approval rating. Enough tobably not get the president reelected nationally. It is not a national election. It is Electoral College. Individual target states. If the president is at 46 nationally, he has a hell of a good chance getting reelected. In the target states, the numbers will be significantly better. We all wish we could have more state based polling. We share that sentiment. Lets go to a question that addresses [indiscernible] actual votes. Won suburban areas overall by four points but things have changed among white, educated voters who have moved strongly against trump, and part of that evidence comes from 2018, where democrats were able to flip the house through the strength of suburban areas from charleston to Oklahoma City to orange county, california. I have spoken to republican strategist who have identified suburban women, collegeeducated suburban women as a weak spot for trump and republicans generally. Can you talk about what, in the next 70 days, the Trump Campaign can do to turn this around, to bring in those voters again they were able to win in 2016 . You saw last night, the first night of the convention, it was really a great contrast with the Democrat Convention. Fact, theree , in were not a lot of battleground state polling after the Democrat Convention but last night was a great night for the republicans. The president really showed there is a diverse republican voters,d that suburban particularly independent voters have a reason to vote republican and for President Trump and not for the democrat ticket. There is a second term agenda the campaign put out that is really popular. Creating jobs, covering preexisting conditions, school but it gives a really thorough policy goal analysis that the vast majority of those issues are popular, which is in sharp contrast with the democrats. They played more character contrast with the president and were light on issues. If you want to know what the Trump Campaigns strategy is, look at the second term agenda and the appeal of those issues to suburban voters, particularly independent women and men. I think it is something the voters will say, defunding the police . That is a bad idea. That is going to result in higher crime. Guess what . I have to vote for the republicans. They may not be thrilled with the president s style to get things done because he is a businessman, but they do like the results. The results are very important for them. Elaina, let me interject for one minute. Please. There has been some erosion for trump in suburban areas. Iis really interesting got back a poll yesterday from a republican who did not think he was in trouble in a rural area in a key state. The numbers came back trump was doing better now than he was doing against hillary. Polling these areas because they are safer republican. Are gettingike we higher turnout that could offset some suburban areas where we are seeing erosion. Thank you for that. Let us close with a lightning round. We appreciate your time. Try to keep these brief, maybe a couple of words. We are going to be using these ratings as our guide. Race not senate popping in public polling . Our democrats confident they could flip come november . I heard you ask that last week and that is an easy one. The one i am watching most closely is maine. Hell collins is running a of a campaign. John . I would agree with neil on senator collins. She is doing quite well and i think President Trump is going to surprise people in maine as well. I have a feeling that what i am seeing is, as President Trump rises, so will the Republican Senate candidates. January 2021ion, who controls the senate and by what margin . Republicans are going to control that by the skin of their teeth. John . I think we might be a seat or two better than that. [laughter] justresidential race is taking shape now at the Republican Convention ends and people we have several political lifetimes to go through now i november. Thank you for talking with us about trumps path back to the white house. It was great having you both. Thank you for the opportunity. Thank you. Before we sign off i want to thank elaina and the politico team for the conversations we had. Getting the republican perspective this week, we will watch the polls over the next 70 days. We turn it over to senior politics editor, charlie and reporter laura for the swing states map. Good morning. I am the senior politics editor at politico. The electoral map has changed quite a bit and we are here to talk about one of the key states. I am joined by my colleague, National Political reporter, laura, to explore the new swing states map. Throughout the political conventions we will take a look at six states at the heart of the electoral map. Today, we are focusing on arizona. Part of my coverage of politico is the president ial race as well as demographics. I have covered the changing demographics in arizona and what that means for president ial races and ballot races. Before we dive into arizona, mary newman is providing us background into the dynamics at play. If arizona were a color, it would be read. It is home to the red rock state park, famous for the red clay, cardinals fans are draped in red, but the biggest reason is the voting patterns. The state has voted for the republican candidate in 70 of general elections. We came within one percentage point of carrying arizona. I hope you will help us to better on thursday. This bill clinton rally was the last election when the deeply republican state voted for the democrats. In 2016, trump won the state, but things seem to be shifting making it a democratic target. First, let us talk demographics. Part of the reason arizona could turn blue is the growing power of the latino vote. The hispanic vote turned out strongly in favor of president clinton. That is something the republicans are going to have to look at in the future. Bringing it back to 2016, and exit poll analysis estimated 80 ary clinton won more of the latino vote and eligible latinos went up to 42 . Latinos have been historically written off, but democrats increasingly believe they could provide crucial voting margins for joe biden, especially in arizona. In mid july the Biden Campaign try to win over more latino voters. They spent 1 million in spanishlanguage outreach. Arizona is dominated by maricopa last several the elections it has accounted for 60 of the votes captain arizona. The candidate who wins maricopa usually wins the whole state. Top of the emerging purple and blue in Maricopa County there is the o the devastating impact of covid. Trump started advocating for them to open in may. Reopening. Open things up. Our country wants to open. And the republican governor followed suit, quickly reopening the state while taking a lax approach. Governor ducey even signed an executive order banning local governments from issuing mask mandates, a policy he later retracted. In june the daily numbers of confirmed cases grew from 187 aday to almost 5000. The pandemic has hit one of the Fastest Growing voting blocks the hardest latinos. Latino residents are more than twice as likely to become infected. 73 of latinos living in arizona hold trump directly responsible for allowing the pandemic to spiral out of control and almost 50 answered yes when asked if the pandemic led to anyone in their household losing a job, receiving a pay cut, or having trouble paying bills. It is hard to overstate the gravity of the situation. The 11oses arizona votes, his reelection could be doomed. Arizona has produced two president ial nominees over the last halfcentury including barry goldwater. The governorship is controlled by republicans. For the first time, organizations include arizona and the battleground state poll ing. What is going on . The latino population has grown and they have increasingly become more politically active. Activists and organizers on the ground see the battle between latinos and gop governors, as well as the former sheriff who was known for legally defining a judges order to stop racially profiling latinos those woke up younger generations and made them more politically active. Democrats and republicans alike have told me, in the state, trump has accelerated these dynamics and due to his presidency a moderate democrat, which biden has fashioned himself as, could be more viable. The debate surrounding arizonas response to the coronavirus has been among the most politicized with President Trump praising governor duceys handling of the pandemic and joe biden ripping the governor. How is the pandemic shipping the election environment . Arizona has been one of the hardest hit states and latinos and native americans in that state have been disproportionately hospitalized and killed by the virus. Recent polling shows latinos are disapproving of trumps handling of the pandemic and fearful of exposure. It follows that that could push more latinos toward biden, particularly younger ones who have not always been in joe bidens corner. During the primary joe biden did not do as well with younger generations, particularly Younger Voters of color, but trumps handling of the virus could push more his way. Coronavirus impact on older generations has weakened trumps numbers with white voters. That could also play a role. Joe biden was leading donald trump among arizona latinos according to a july poll. Tell herything i can still has a ways to go to consolidate the latino vote. That is right. Biden needs to recreate the path democratic senator Kyrsten Sinema created when she won her senate seat. She received 70 of the latino vote and 45 of the white vote. She did not run what you would call a progressive campaign. She promoted border security. What we are seeing in more recent polls, but similar to the one you cited, is that biden is 63 among latinos from a latino decision firm. Definitely has a ways to go to win more of the latino vote, particularly Younger Voters. In a state like that he could potentially lead with his immigrant background. Bidenso think improvement among latino outreach is having an impact in a state like arizona. His campaign has improved that outreach which they did not have much of during the primary. In the last month he released spanishlanguage apps in states like arizona and they had the speaker have region specific accents. Speaker had ae Mexican Accent because the majority is of mexican descent. White suburbanites are also critical in arizona. They seem to be up for grabs this year. What issues are driving their votes . Like most voters a lot of it is going to be health care, the economy, coronavirus. Say that arategists big reason republicans lost the 18, which led to democrats winning the house, is trumps divisiveness. Theyre talking about his racist tweets, Administration Family separation policy, all of that contributed to losses. Republicans also lost women by 19 points to the democrats. If trump continues that ki