Welcome. There has been investment in the science and manufacturing of developing a vaccine and rolling it out in record time and getting it to everybody around the world. To tryf us came together andunderstand this journey to quantify the uncertainties in the science and scaling up of such a product and to reflect on what this means for policymakers and societies all over the world. What is the chance of getting a vaccine in the next 12 months, how long will it take to manufacture it to scale, and how governments done in designing their vaccine portfolios, but why does this matter . Taxpayers need to know this information. We are aware of industries and governments that have their own internal models and analyses. The stakes are too high and the information shared so far has been so little and hard to. Erify not only is this needed to plan buildlios, but to help trust, without which a vaccine will never work however successful. Today we are sharing our findings with you including the codes for the models and our approach and conclusions. More will be coming in the next few weeks including a group. Iendly webbased we hope that this web tool that we will launch will allow whoever wants to do their own data and come up with their own products because this is what we are talking about, forecasts, estimates, predictions. We do not have the answers. Resultc will describe a in a minute, but the key take y is that there is portfolio diversification is important, and that refers that the vaccine candidates are not all likely to fail for the same reason. That is important. Andiversify, we need attractive marketplace and the way the development is final also determines the level of diversification. We talked about creating a healthy marketplace and are commitment work here. Suggests that we will most probably get a vaccine and itwill take time, probably will not solve covid for us good we will continue to live with the virus in the meantime, including maintaining social distancing and other measures what working on better treatment. In doing so we must not overlook the Collateral Damage in terms of human lives and livelihoods, but our focus on dealing with , we need to keep on asking voicee data and getting a to those suffering in silence. This work is a collaborative. Ffort it turns out finding a successful vaccine share common methodologies. Today we will tell you what we have found. Work in progress. We want to hear from you. We want to refine what is found. Ofill set out the structure the days event and introduce to you the speakers. Josh to get us started, a vice dean for Public Health practice at Johns HopkinsPublic Health. He is a former Principal Deputy mission or of the u. S. Food and drug administration. We also have the chair of the private sector of the advisory also a from columbia and former minister will respond to someindings and share ideas. I will introduce them further when we get to that point and they will make short comments and there will be an opportunity for you to ask question. I think this conversation is critically important. Without further ado, i will fastforward to josh who will have 10 minutes to share with us his situation with Vaccine Development. We are grateful to have you with us. I think you might be meted. Muted. For having meou and for having this session and for the work that has been done. I appreciate the opportunity shoe to share a few thoughts. I think when this started, the idea that this pandemic, the idea that there would be a vexing to save us was a lifeline , a dream that people could have. Now we are getting to the point where we have an opportunity to understand what that means. It is not a magic solution, not a magic wand that saves us and we wake up from this nightmare. We all wish it were, but that is not the situation. That could make an enormous difference. It could save so many lives, and the idea of using a safe vaccine in the middle of the pandemic is a very important focus for the work that all of us need to do. Howuld like to talk about we can get from here to there at a very high level, what the important tasks are at this stage, how to get from where we are to a vaccine making a difference in saving many lives around the world. The first thing is we need to complete effectively the Scientific Research to know whether vaccines are safe and effective. We have to know not only what works, but for whom it works and what populations and how well. They will only come when the science is there. Asserted orbe legislated. This will require some patience and expertise to look at studies and a willingness to recognize when things are not working. Perhaps above all this stage requires integrity, and the studies, and that regulatory strong commitment to science. Obviously there are some worrisome signs that there are some countries jumping ahead and helping, letting hope jump ahead of their understanding of vaccines. I think the most important thing here is really for the science to become clear. Obviously stage, and work on the stages may happen at the same time, but this is how i think about the key challenges, the ability to make available the vaccine and vaccine acceptance. Like to some people and easy step, you just give the vaccine out. People in the field know how many steps there are, how much management, how people have to roll up their sleeves and do all kinds of specific difficult work to be able to take the potential of a vaccine into the reality of vaccination which actually is the thing that saves lives. Isthis point i think it important for people to have the resources necessary to do that implementingk of with chain of custody for vaccines that may need to be kept cold, reaching different communities as well as engagement, answering questions, having trusted messengers talking about vexing nation but about vaccination. If you skipt t step, we know for many reasons Global Cooperation is important. Vaccines that some countries are developing may be good for some countries but not others. By pooling our resources of the planet, we would be able to share our knowledge across the world and have as many people possible benefit from the correct vaccination. The challenge is to set aside the fears and concerns from competition and get people to work together. We are facing a common enemy for humanity and it is important that at every stage from the studies to the review to distribution and acceptance that we think of this as a Global Enterprise because no country is safe if there are parts of the world where there is enormous pandemic. I want to talk about the ourrtance of maintaining strong precautions against Coronavirus Spread during this process. That you will be presenting this model and we cannot let our guard down while these other stages are happening , while we are waiting for the research to come in, building out these distribution networks, because we could have a problem and lossoflife in the interim. I think this is a little bit beyond politics because what we are dealing with is a fatigue from what we are doing. Timeuld take quite a long at least in our current mindset where we went a vaccine next week, quite a long time for us to get there. We can save a lot of lives in the interim. We need to be able to maintain that persistence. For that i would like to quote pointed out that there is the virus does not care how tired we are. In that case it was a bacteria, but the virus does not care how tired we are, how sick we are of having to wear masks are not going to concerts and things like that. But he wrote was, what is natural is the microbe. All of the rest, health, integrity, is the product of the human will, a vigilance that months that must never falter. We need to have the minimum lossoflife and the ability to do the things that are important while we are putting in place the strong protections through a vaccine. Strength is science, understanding, empathy, and it is important to discuss, this aspectsp eliminate key of the path between here and a vaccine that helps the world move through this difficult stage. Thank you for a chance to share some of those thoughts. About forward to reading the Important Research that is going on. I think everybody who is participating today has a role to play to make sure that we are using the best of humanity to fight this virus. Thank you those are inspiring words. I appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts with us. Anthony toe to ask take us through the actual results. E have released our reports codeso have released error our coats. In the meantime, please read the report if you have the time and interest. Please get in touch with us for questions, suggestions, and right now over the next hour or so, we will collect audience youtube andrough our email, so please get your questions through. I would like to ask you to take us through the results of this to thefore we move on panel discussion. Thank you. She mentioned, this was a diverse team that she got together. We could not have done this without a collaborative effort expert,g our vaccine our physicist who used his knowledge to help us build this rebecca, ourand kalipso,at the lab,. Ho you have already seen thank you. It has been a pleasure to work with everyone. Modelof all, we built a using a range of estimates to try to estimate how long it will. Ake to get a vaccine there was 20 vaccines in the that we could not determine their platform so we excluded those. Types,them into funding those that had large external had externalsome funding, and then vaccines that were taking forward by Large Pharmaceutical Companies or by medium or by Small Companies or academic institutions. We looked at their stage of development. We put all of this information in the model and we come up with this form for how likely each likely is to succeed. We took all of these inputs and put them into a simulation. This is a simulation where we take input and in each simulation the model defines success aced on whether not the probabilities that we put in. You could have a model that checks how likely you are to roll two dices thats a six and it would randomly choose two numbers between one and six each it would be a monte carlo simulation that gives you the likelihood that that would happen. We built assimilation that looked at the whole model and moves forward month by month and vaccines randomly succeed or fail in each run. Each run tells you a lot about the portfolio, but if you combine them all together you should be able to get a picture of what the probability of successes. The model is dynamic and that ,eans if one succeeds or fails the model presumes that another similar vaccine will be more or less likely to succeed. Shown toing vaccine is be very good against covid19, we would presume in the real world this would increase the probability for the expectation that the other vaccine will also work well against the vaccine against the virus. Model can also [indiscernible] the amount of time it takes to adapt or build factories so they can produce s and finally a Global Manufacturing model that looks at the global capacity to produce various vaccines. One of the things that struck me in this project was how little we know about Global Manufacturing capacity. We will create this model and we have created it, and we will make this publicly available so people can put input into the model and they will get different results based on their input. We interviewed 16 experts to get their inputs for this model. These are people from industry and government and people in agencies that are funding vaccines and for people in academia. Three people are leading vaccine candidates, and we are grateful for their time. What did these experts tell us . They told us they would expect about a 66 chance a vaccine in Preclinical Development with proceed to phase one. A vaccine in phase two has about a 67 chance of reaching phase three. For phase 3 we collected input different for each one of the vaccine platforms. The platform that are experts like most was a putting subunit, and the approach the one they like least was the actually is not in this graph. General is that they think that there is a high chance of these vaccines going to preclinical phases that is traditional the case because theres so much pressure and getting a vaccine quickly, but doing this more quickly is not change whether not the vaccine succeeds or fails so we would expect a higher failure rate in phase 3 than you would normally expect. Our experts anticipated a roughly three in four chance and it being submitted for approval. What does this mean . We use all of this information as well as the funding criteria to work out a probability of success for every vaccine and the poor fellow portfolio. What we find is that even the most successful vaccines, theres only about 835 chance will succeed, and theres only two vaccines with over a 30 chance. Even the quickest vaccines are probably six month away from success. 230 vaccines in the portfolio. While the model is not hugely optimistic about anyone vaccine, when you put them together the model becomes optimistic that some of them will succeeds. This is a timeline for when we might see that first one approved. There is a very small chance the model thinks a vaccine will be approved in december and then from january the chance start to rise quickly. April becomes the month that it is or likely than not that we will have one approved. There is an 85 percent chance by by the model21 and thinks that within the next three years there is over 899 chance that one of the vaccines will succeed. Also look at what happens if run the most up a dipstick optimistic and pessimistic outputs, and we moved all of the inputs are down by standard oriations and we multiplied divided the timeline by 1. 5. In the optimistic, every run that we did of the model, all of the vaccines were approved. The average number of approvals in the next three years goes from 5. 7 up to 18, and that medium time is january 2021 with 90 of the simulations seeing one approved by march and 99 being approved by december 2021. However, if you put in more inputs, we see only an 81 chance that one of them in the portfolio will be approved in the next 81 the next three years. Just under 50 of the rounds see approval with the average number isng 1. 7, the median time not until april 2022. It hopefullyis allows people when they have to ,ay how long this could take you can get different outputs and depending on the views you , andn you get area results we will be making this available in just over one month so everyone can see what this leads to. We moved onto the manufacturing model. This model, we took four targets, three aced on the who, target one is having enough vaccine to treat all of the medical professionals in the world, number two is all of the people over 65 and three is all adults with comorbidities and four is the whole world. 18 billionwe need for the population is because the who research presumes we will need two doses to inoculate someone. What we find here is that the is lateime to approval 2021, early 2022, we start to see enough to reach target one. Target two and three follow on fairly quickly. The reason is the model thinks there is a lot of manufacturing capacity, so when we start turning out vaccines can get to two and three quickly. ,our what take longer because even with quite a large amount of vaccine, it will probably take well over a year. Finally we looked at the verification. First of all we looked on the right, at the ideal scenario. We asked the model what are the best six candidates to ensure that one drug is successful . The 85. 7 chance of success based on mostly wellfunded pharmaceutical with three protein , and this kind of goes with the idea that our model likes diverse portfolios. They have five candidates that they like and 67 [indiscernible] ideallose to our portfolio. We also looked at the chance that one of the vaccines gets approved in a run from each of the various platforms. The putting subunit is the most likely. They are something on the order of 90 so it would not make sense to back all of those to get to 87 . These action have very similar endpoints inputs. None of the live attenuated viruses so that, first of all, our experts were not optimistic about the efficacy of these first vaccines. They will be safe, but we might not get a vaccine efficient attenuate the crisis. The second thing to say on this is that the manufacturing capacity in the world is somewhat broken down by different types of vaccines so having a diverse portfolio to come out will allow it to manufacture them more quickly. Theres not enough inactivated viral vaccine in the portfolio. Theres only one outside of asia being pushed forward. There is a lot of capacity to make those types of vaccines. The final thing to say is we did not look at uptake and acceptance in rolling out these vaccines. These are huge challenges that we think the world ought to be looking at now. Some of these are highly unstable and we have not run large campaigns for adults in most of the world for very long times. If you want to know more about this, please read our paper. I would like to say thank you to led all ofors, who. He manufacturing work we are deeply grateful for all of the experts we interviewed and for sharing their data with us. We look forward to hank your thoughts on our research. Thank you. Ou that was great. Anthony has been that key driver behind all of this work, driving the research in the beginning, so very well done. To the chairt over of the private sector for covid19 binds a Vaccine Advisory Council of columbia. We are grateful and honored to have him with us so they will spend a few minutes to share their thoughts in response to what was just presented, and then we will move into our panel. Thank you. We cannot hear you. Minister, over to you. To everyone, the panel, that was interesting what we just heard. Congratulations for that effort. Thise going to split presentation into two parts. Slidesstart sharing the of what is been our performance , and note last month in an approach of judgment but just trying to show the numbers and what we understand from the numbers. This is our Current Situation today. Around 5000 cases, most of them recovered, and still 56,000 active cases 26,000 ine reached the last month. Comparing this to other countries in terms of cases or million, we are in the first 10 places in terms of between 10 ands 20 and are acting in terms of testing per Million People in our country. This is how it looks. I will not get deep into this, but this is how it looks. We have been having a lot of andlenges between july september, and we have different moments in different par