Trumps presidency. The entire region undoubtedly will be following the biden team closely as it articulates its policy leading up to the inauguration in january. While there is a theory that the new administration focused on domestic problems needs to push back against major challenges from china will want to put the middle east on the back burner but it is not clear they can succeed. Major questions about the u. S. Approach to the ongoing in tensions in syria, with saudi arabia and turkey and what to do about israel and the palestinians will confront Vice President resident elected den whether or not he seeks biden whether or not he seeks them out. I am pleased to welcome the president of nei. , he hascademic work focused on political change and conflict as well as International Relations in the middle east region. Next i would like to welcome these senior fellow of the Turkey Program and senior fellow frontier europe initiative. I would like to welcome general hotel. He is a distinguished fellow at the middle east institute. Retired from the u. S. Army in 2019 after an illustrious 40 year career in which he held a variety of leadership positions including commanding general of the special Operations Command from 2014 to 2016 and of the Central Command from 2016 to 2019. Is the fourth in a series of events we have held. For those interested in taking a deeper dive into our analyses, the full series is posted online. Bookan find a link to the in the chat box if you are joining us on zoom. Q and a feature can also be found on your screens. On those watching our panel the livestream, you can email your questions. If you are having technical issues you can also use the email. Feel free to ask a question at any time. I will be looking at all your questions and will factor as many as possible into the discussions. Asked each panelist to give a brief overview of their ideas to prompt this question. Let me begin with you paul. How do you see the region over the next four years . Welcome to this discussion. Let me say a few things leading up to the inauguration that should happen on january 20. One is the electoral event itself in the u. S. Resonates in the middle east. The u. S. Has been the leading democracy in the world for two centuries and in the middle east up until yesterday was still struggling over the issue of what is the best political system . Should it be a form of monarchical authoritarianism, should it be an islamic system or should it be a democracy . These are real issues particularly among the populations of the middle east. President trump has been somewhat of an opponent of the institutions and values of soocracy and a free press there was a time when that example was taken a beating around taking a beating. Election of joe biden is a restoration of the course of democracy in the united states. It remains fragile but it gives encouragement to those who need to believe that democracy is the future rather than authoritarianism. Secondly i think it is important to note that obviously President Trump still has nine weeks left in his administration and might do dramatic things in the middle east. This could relate to iran, whether it is more sanctions. A good to be may be set in troop withdrawals from iraq or syria or Something Else we have not foreseen. Joe biden might be met with more surprises a few weeks from now. The senatetor is looks to be under republican hands. It is likely to go in that not certain. It is if the republicans retain control of the senate that means President Biden will have to find Common Ground with Senate Leadership certainly on some domestic issues. Foreign policy issues as well hence that will affect his foreignpolicy. Two big picture issues as you the u. S. During this election cycle is going through a once in a century biggest Economic Contraction since the great depression, so much of the administration will be focused on domestic issues. When it comes to Foreign Policy issues, the middle east is in the back of the queue. There are some local Foreign Policy issues like owing back into the Climate Change agreement, rebuilding relationships with traditional allies in europe and asia and restoring americas presence in andu. N. And multilateralism in a more direct sense a focus on competition with russia and china. When you look at the Democratic Party platform, the middle east is the very last paragraph of the very last page. It is not going to be a high priority. Andu. S. Has continuing enduring interests in the middle east that have not changed much biden. Ama to trump to those continue to be the free flow of energy from the region to Global Markets as well as general trade routes remaining open. It is continued focus on ntering weapons of master mass destruction, a continued focus on counterterrorism, as powers a great competition with russia and china. Those are not going away. The u. S. Might reduce its footprint in the middle east but it is not turning away. Somerms of policy there is change but much continuity. The area where we might see the most changes between trump and biden is on the iran policy but biden would want to go back or forward. Backrtainly wants to get into the general perspective of the Nuclear Agreement and get a negotiating track with iran. On israel palestine, he welcomed the Peace Agreements between israel and three arab countries and would certainly want to well encourage more. He will encourage the israelis to and resume bilateral negotiations. On counterterrorism, there is no magic bullet, no secret sauce. There will not be any dramatic changes they are unless trump implements them. On weapons of mass destruction he has a different approach to Irans Nuclear program. They have much more Nuclear Material than it had before trump withdrew from the agreement. In a sense the Biden Administration will foreground diplomacy and looking for solutions not just pressure. The Biden Administration will lead on lean on allies and multilateralism, bringing more players around the table rather than going it alone. Socialngs one is issues. One is the region is going through a great pandemic and Economic Contraction and a Biden Administration will be more understanding of that and more alert to economic issues. To end with this because i started with democracy as an important dynamic, the Biden Administration will foreground issues of human rights, civil society, political participation , Good Government into the right of people to express themselves, hold them accountable. It will do that in a diplomatic way. That will be back on the table with a Biden Administration. Those are my thoughts. Thanks, jerry. Thank you paul. Lets turn next to general hotel. On the security and military environment. That would include ct and our approach to iran. Afghanistan is also something that is on the front burner as far as the administration is concerned. Joe, if you could talk about how you see the Biden Administration developing on the military and security side. Joe i think the question at hand here is the future of u. S. Military presence in the region. Let me talk about this. First is the notion of ongoing operations. What i am talking about is afghanistan, iraq and syria as a separate set. Afghanistan as everyone knows is we are at a point where there are ongoing reconciliation talks not progressing as fast as anyone would one them to but they are in process. This has been the object of President Trumps a strategy for the last three years, to a reconciliation between the government and the taliban. Somewe have seen is discussion of whether there might be an immediate withdrawal. Right now somewhere in the range of 5000 u. S. Troops on the ground, further reductions of this depending on progress in the talks but some indication from the Current Administration that right next spring it would again be lowering in terms of this. Also in consideration is the status of our natoled coalition. This is a consideration that needs to be looked at. The longterm u. S. Ct interests is a location where there is a number of terrorist organizations so we will continue to look at that. Anding across at iraq syria, here we see about the approximately same number of troops on the ground providing assistance to the Iraqi Security forces and Syrian Democratic forces. Campaigninued the inst isis and provide regional instability is at stake here. We have to remember what brought us back to iraq was the instability that came out of this region that impacted our interests in other areas and imposed greater threats to the country. Iraqi forces and to some extent the influence and syria is leverage against iran, and there are u. S. Ct interests here. Operation the second thing i would highlight is iran itself. The approaches of the Trump Administration into the Previous Obama Administration could not be more different. Pressure campaign versus focus on jcpoa and a more diplomatic open dialogue approach here. There are very significant differences. There has been a build up to some extent of additional conventional forces in the region that are designed to support the Pressure Campaign. Sustainment of this comes at a cost to the readiness of our military forces and our desire to do things in other areas. Of course the recent agreements between israel and some of the gulf arab nations offers an opportunity here for more pressure against iran in the region. This will be the second group of areas the administration will want to look at. Third will be power competition. Power competition is the main element of our Current National defense strategy, maintaining our competitive advantage against china. Persistentas seen encroachment from china, russia, from others trying to exert their own influences on the area. It goes without saying the middle east will be an area where we will need to compete to one extent or another whether militarily or in one of the other domains of national power. That will mean looking at things like security assistance, etc. In this area we have some of the largest programs within the u. S. Government that exist. Now the potential for f35s to go to some of the countries like the uae, this is an important consideration. With the new administration stepping into this first and foremost they obviously have to a reasonable and inclusive transition. That has not materialized yet. Hopefully there will be an opportunity once we settled the politics of the current election. Important for the new administration stepping forward to be ready to articulate interests and priorities in the region. I think this will be what many partners will be listening for. First and foremost will be the Nuclear Proliferation interests here. As paul highlighted iran is in a different place now than they were a couple years ago. This will have to be addressed. Second will be protecting the ofeland, our concern terrorist organizations in the area. Preserving our influence in the region, this will be part of the competition. Confront other actors preventing instability from flowing out of the region, preserving access to resources for us and for some of our partners. These will be interests the new administration long, enduring interests the administration will have to address. As paul communicated there will be a heavy influence on the diplomatic side. I strongly encourage they talk to partners in and out of the region and return the dialogue to something more normal and more expected of u. S. Interaction in the region. This will be important in reassuring our partners in and out of the region of our strategic reliability. There is an element of andinuity in our approach their considerations will be brought into this. It is important the new administration not dismiss what has happened. There are elements to build upon from a security standpoint. Certainly the fact the taliban are talking to some extent is something that ought to be bells on. The death of custom solemani Qassem Solemani sent a strong message to the region and may give the new administration and option to leverage that. Israelialization of gulf arab relations gives the opportunity to build on this. Regardless of how you view this, this does have a stabilizing effect on the region that struggles with stability so it should from a security standpoint be something we build on. Rct oad success in ur ct campaigns against isis. Neither of these groups are gone and they can come back but the work that has been done has kept and off ofuppressed our shores and a largely off of that of our allies. We need to build on these excesses we have had in the past. Jerry, i will stop there. Thank you so much joe. About how turkey fits into this larger picture that paul and joe have lined out. Turkey is clearly going to be an important player on many of these issues including energy, the region,sue of civil conflict and a number of states in the region as well as the challenges of the u. S. Turkey relationship itself. Please. I will start with the u. S. Turkey relations. There is a lot of anxiety in own car about the outcome of the president ial u. S. President ial elections. Inthere is a lot of anxiety the outcome of the u. S. President ial elections. Was the first to call and congratulate biden. Extraent trump went the mile to shield erdogan from conventional sanctions over turkeys purchase of a defense and which is being those days are gone. Biden will be above taking punitive measures against erdogan. I do think we will see a stronger pushback from a Biden White House against turkey when it runs counter to u. S. Interests. I think bidens approach to Foreign Policy in general and turkey in particular will be an image of principle. Lets remember biden was part of it is true that many of bidens advisors have served in government and they were left turkeysour taste for from feeding the fight against syriao attacking kurds in. There will certainly be those in the biden team to see that as being too harsh on turkey are completely disregarding its interests in the region benefits russia. I think this is what a biden policy visavis turkey will look like no more blank. Hecks for erdogan we can expect the Biden Administration to be more vocal about violations of human rights in turkey. Take a biden will ferent approach on this the purchase of the russian s 400 violates law. Penalties ons those countries that make purchases of russian arms. Turkey mboldened trump has emboldened turkey. Oppose sanctions but he has a range of options. I do not think biden will want to destroy the turkish economy. He is likely to take less severe options. Significant impacts on investors in turkey. Looking at some of the policies biden might pursue in the region i see bothsatlantic, challenges and opportunities for u. S. Turkey relations. If it works to strengthen nato, turkeyquires preventing deepening the cracks in nato. Turkeys overhead with france even thegrace Trump Administration has been critical of turkeys approach in the region. I expect a approach from the Biden Administration there. Aydins efforts to curb russian influence might also offer opportunities for cooperation. Ofwill ramp up support countries like georgia to help them improve their ability to withstand russian pressure. That is an area where turkey and of the u. S. Can cooperate. Supported nato enlargement and ukraine. That is an area where the two countries can cooperate. Another important foreignpolicy item that presents challenges and opportunities for both countries is syria. Remaine in syria will and it could mean a stronger u. S. Push to include the syrian kurds in geneva. That has always been a major problem in turkey u. S. Relations and will continue to poison the tie. That does not mean that turkey and the u. S. Cannot cooperate in syria. The regionalr forces there has prevented a regime takeover. That is an outcome that the u. S. Can be pleased to see. The Biden Administration will want to help and support england. A presence in libya to support tripolirly government largely remains on the sidelines there. I doubt biden will want to pursue a more muscular approach. But there has been a ceasefire agreement, in the biden will support those multilateral efforts. I think libya could be another sphere where turkey and u. S. Interests clash. I know i am running out of time. Where they see each other as strategic allies are long gone. A Partnership Based on shared values is not possible. That is something that the biden says it will seek to do. A Partnership Based on shared values is not possible as long as erdogan is in power. The countries will cooperate, but it will be on a casebycase basis, and i think this will be the approach of the biden position in turkey, and i will end it there. Thank you so much. A questione back to actually, there is one country that touches actually, several countries, but one country in particular that touches on all of the issues that the three of you have talked about, and that is saudi arabia. So one of the Big Questions and of course, we know that the not really do much to hide their disappointment over the outcome of the election. Saudi leadership was o