Good afternoon. Everyone seated . All right, can everyone hear me okay . All right, good afternoon, thank you so much, sean, for the introduction. If youre like me youre fascinated by all of the panelists that are here today that have such incredible perspectives on the world and where their jobs have taken them, my goal today and my hope for you is that we are able to take a transcribe trip around the world through their experiences, able to understand the world and which may be pretty complicated and americas role in that, where do we go from here, so lets just sort of do an overview of where we are today. I work in the news world so if you guys think youre being bombarded by headlines, welcome. [laughter] but we have a lot going on, right . I was in venezuela where i covered the conflict there, not easy to see or understand much less explain, we have conflicts in syria, we have conflicts in yemen, and here is whats heartbreaking, we had nearly 70 million displaced people in the world today, perspective, thats the most since world war ii. Think about that for a minute. 70 Million People displaced. There are ups and downs, thats the way of life, the way of the world, we also have a dramatic Economic Growth in progress in the world of health today, 17 million lives have been saved by americas global hiv aids program, the u. S. President emergency plan for aids, a lot going on. We can all agree on that, right . Theres a lot going on today in the world, so i want to make sure that we take a moment to talk to our panelists, try to make sense of this. I will ask a few questions, we can talk amongst ourselves and then we will have some questions from the audience after the fact, so i will go one by one and i will start with the congresswoman. [laughter] lets go to china for a minute. Its certainly something that when we talk about the influence in the world you will always hear china when i was living in mexico city just a few months ago i felt like we had a lot of diplomats in mexico constantly trying to fill a void if you will, so my question is, china has pledged a trillion dollars on belt and Road Initiative, thats going to be massive, completely outdoes the marshal plan, what does that mean, what do you make of that . Well, first, let me say hello to everybody, i think that the state and local level is where real things happen, good for you, keep doing real things. I also was thinking about the fact that when i served in congress for 9 terms, thats 100 years, when i served in congress for 100 years, global issues were very low on the radar screen. When you asked people what do they care about it was the economy, stupid, not that that doesnt matter and not that that was affected by global issues but they thought, the one Foreign Policy issue that motivated folks in my district which was quite well informed in the sort of Aerospace Center of southern california, foreign aid is too big, 50 of the federal budget. Guess what, its less than 1 but they were very energized about that. Im happy that youre here, im learning about things, the other issue that motivated people was china and it was universal misunderstanding of china i would say, back in the day, both Political Parties in congress have demonized china for years and even now i would say the policy of the administration is more negative than it needs to be, let me explain what i see, you asked me about china and Road Initiative. I think we spent most of our time since 9 11 which was catastrophic event focused on counterterrorism and we missed a couple of movies one of which was chinas rise and scholars at Wilson Center say china has risen, i think that im looking at steve nodding and hes so smart so if hes nodding i might be close. [laughter] china has risen and a couple of things to say about that, one it really is a strategic competitor which is our defense now says, we care about strategic competitors, russia and china, theyre not the same thing but we care, thats one, but two, it has a totally different economic model and we somehow thought it would adopt our model but oops, it didnt and the belt and Road Initiative toward which they are devoting huge resources as part of their economic and i suppose their security strategy, they are Building Infrastructure around the world in europe, in africa, in latin america, everywhere, i was in a small caribbean nation and the infrastructure, the little mom and pop Grocery Stores are being built by china now and thats part of belt and Road Initiative. A defining aspect of the security and Economic Policy and we dont understand it and we dont have the focus and tools yet to respond to it. So, if let me follow up on that. If we dont understand it and we dont have the tools, how do we compete . Well, we better understand it and get the tools. I mean, we compete with china. Lets not think that were a third world nation. Were not a third world nation. We have done extremely well, but the new trade war that were engaged in with china may be partially a response to that, but i think its not. I think its a response to a way to see trade deficits. I would dispute the way we see trade deficits. I think it misses, you know, the surplus we have in services, but in any rate, i think we should respond to it in a much more nuanced way. As china expands influence around the world, i think its not the right time for the u. S. To retreat around the world and i see us doing that and i think we can lead in a variety of ways and we have led to establish the liberal world order after world war ii and we are not leading now in protecting that order. All right, to you. I know you spearheaded a report about a fragile state where it said, by 2030, two billion people will live and one of the things you focused on are the threats posed by the fragile states. Im going to take a bit of the question here. Help us understand that and what are the tools that are needed to deal with that . Sure. Thank you, and i will join jane in welcoming everybody and congratulating u. S. Global Leadership Coalition for once again, having this kind of extraordinary event. So fragility, let me start with a definition, its defined as when a state and its people have a broken relationship, and basically, the state is either unwilling or unable to take care of the citizens and what you get are communities or states that are usually very fragmented, there are a lot of grievances, a sense of injustice, and this is the common denominator that runs through some of the greatest threats that we face. Whether its countries that are consumed by civil war, countries that are the largest sources of refugees or migrants. Countries that are most susceptible to pandemics like ebola, that have the largest number of violent extremist incidents and the u. S. Congress asked the u. S. Institute of peace, a national nonpartisan independent institute to take a look at how can the u. S. Do a better job of addressing the conditions of fragility that have enabled violent extremism to spread since 9 11. Since 9 11, weve spend 6 trillion and the number of incidents have just exponentially increased around the world. So we need a different strategy and the idea is to have more of a preventive approach that looks at the conditions that enable extremists to take root. And one of our task force members, the general came and briefed the group, but the recommendations are basically that the u. S. Needs to focus more on the upstream, more on the prevention, not only waiting until crisis and extremism has broken out and i think thats true whether youre looking at conflict or pandemics or violent extremism. Its how do we organize ourselves to prevent these kinds of occurrences more effectively. As somebody whos spent several decades, working in the humanitarian and developmental world, i can tell you that we have increased over the decades the amount of humanitarian assistance that goes to victims of conflict. 20 years ago, 20 of our global humanitarian assistance went to victims of Natural Disaster, now thats flipped and 80 goes to victims of conflict. So, it used to be 80 to Natural Disaster and now to conflict. So, the task force recommended three big things that enabled us to be more effective and the first is to have a Clear Strategy across the u. S. Government that enables people to share objectives and time lines to work on a more preventive approach to fragility. Understanding that it takes generations. We need to understand that and we need to partner with local leaders. Change happens locally. And we need to do so in concert with our International Partners. The second is all the ways that we can unleash our development and our diplomacy actors to be able to work more flexibly, to work over longer time horizons and the third is a fund that enables us to partner with our International Partners and create a compact model where we have an agreement with the fragile state on how to proceed forward with their context. There is a bill that actually just passed in the house, that takes those recommendations forward, cold a global fragility act and a bill thats now moving through the senate. Its difficult to sell prevention, its really hard, but we know whether its our own personal health care or looking at the world stage, that prevention is essential and we need to get better at it, and we need to enable our Development Actors and our diplomates to be more agile as they pursue a prevention strategy. Speaking of that, over to you. As ive been on the board and traveled with the caravans through mexico and you see women, children and men, families, making their way through mexico to get to our border, you understand theyre coming from the northern triangle, that is guatamala, el salvador as well as honduras. How do you get to the root cause, the prevention method that shes speaking of in the northern triangle from the u. S. . Well, i think we, first of all, we have to stage it in some sense, that is to say, i think we have to find a way to, in the shortterm, help mexico, help those countries harden their northern border and help mexico harden their southern border and establish some order so you dont have these kind of undisciplined caravans coming up, and knocking on the door in large numbers and creating what has been, maybe it didnt start out, has now become a crisis on the border. In the short one, we have to address that. But we have to do it in a way that leaves some space for the longer run solutions. So, to cut off aid and assistance to Central America, to free up money, to harden the border, is a classic case of letting the shortrun solution defeat the longerrun solution. Because it is the fragile state problem. It is a crisis in governance, its in governance that lost the confidence of their people and cannot offer their people a prospect for a secure and prosperous future to give them incentive to stay home. Theyre desperate and theyre leaving. We have to deal with the migration in the short run, but we need to invest in working with those governments, those who are willing, those that have a plan to address the governance issues so they can begin to offer hope to their people so they will stay home and work with the government to build their own future in their own home. So, its one of these cases, youve got to have a shortrun strategy and a longrun strategy. Youve got to make sure your shortrun does not defeat your longrun strategy and perpetuate the problem. Let me follow up on that. I was with the october, the caravan that was moving north in october in mexico when the administration announced that it was looking at cutting foreign aid and i asked the migrants themselves, what does this mean to you if they cut aid . And many of them, it may surprise you, responded saying, it doesnt matter to me. Were not getting it anyway. And so you hear them saying that and yet, i make a phone call to a bunch of the ngos and they will tell you, were seeing the difference. We are making a difference in these communities. How do you bridge that gap . I think it is really exactly what nancy talked about, which is the people have lost confidence in their government and if money goes to the government, they have no confidence, it actually ends up helping them. Its that compact, if you will, or the social contract between government and the population thats broken and thats whats got to be restored. Its hard work, it takes a long time, we are learning in the process, weve been at this kind of thing for about 16, 17 years, there are some i think so this that work, there are some things that dont work, but what we know you have to start with is local governments that are committed to provide uncorrupt governance to their people that meets their needs, delivers services and offers them some hope. If you can find those kinds of governments, partner with them, develop a plan for improving governments, governance and then support and enable that plan, you can lay the foundation for restoring the social compact, giving people some hope, giving them some incentive to stay home, thats where we need to get. When you say some things dont work, what doesnt work . Well, you know, one of the things that we know that doesnt work is, if you if you give money to deal with other interests we have, which might be proliferation, it might be terrorism, there are a number. Without regard to the commitment of the government to other things on the longterm, youre building in a sense a longterm problem. Ill give you an example. If you talk to terrorists, one of the things going over, local Security Forces that abuse their own people. So if we are cooperating with a government and providing assistance to their Security Forces and are not also working with those Security Forces about how to do community policing, how to deal with communities in a way that builds support for the Security Services rather than turns the Security Forces into an adversary, were building on sand. We are in the short run, think were providing security and in the long run, were laying the foundation for extremism. Thats the kind of thing we have. And that goes into whats in the fragility bill which is having a shared understanding among our defense and is he we can add on the agenda. If i can add one more thing, two things, one of the things in the business community, a lot of you are in the business community, there was a conference sponsored by mike pence and john kelly about the Homeland Security and it was about and with some others, it was not just strengthening the governments in the northern triangle, but improving a climate so there would be Business Investment. Why Business Investment . Because that creates jobs and its true that if there is a Strong Economy and people are working, that, again, reduces the push factor. So thats one point. The other point, and i think this is way long overdue. Im sure everyone on this panel agrees. We need to do comprehensive Immigration Reform in this country so we have a revised, modernized asylum system and we also keep the doors open on a realistic basis to those who lawfully want to come here, not just seeking asylum. If we close, you know, roll up the barricades and close off this country, i think we lose the creativity and the diversity that have made us a great country. [applaus [applause]. Lets go to the middle east for a second. General, thank you for being with us. Secretary of defense bob gates once said we cannot kill or capture our way to victory. We dont see isis right now on the battlefield the way we once did. And yet, nine Million People have been yet returned to their homes. We see soldiers still scattered around everywhere in the middle east and the group recently claimed responsibility for the Violent Attacks in sri lanka in april. So, knowing what you know, what are the tools that we can have . National security tools that you have identified that we need to keep in mind to keep this country safe . Thank you for the question. And ill join my fellow panelists saying thank you to the hosts of the Coalition Conference for inviting me to be here and im particularly glad talking with a bunch of people who did not live in washington d. C. Youre probably more reasonable than most of the people i talk to in this town. The. [laughter] hes right, right. [laughte [laughter]. The tools that im going to elaborate on and ill try to do this briefly, i doubt will surprise anyone, but let me stipulate upfront that we tend and we have tended, particularly since 9 11, as a government to rely primarily on one set of tools and not on another set. The one we have focused on for very good reasons, and im not trying to suggest that the focus that we put on these tools was misplaced, but it was on the use of Law Enforcement intelligence and military power to deal with the fact we were attacked so horrifically on 9 11. And then of course, when isis arose in 2014, we have another very significant terrorist threat that we and the rest of the world had to deal with. So we have developed extraordinary abilities to use our intelligence, our Law Enforcement and our military instruments to use physical force against terrorists. And it has saved thousands of lives, and its prevented another 9 11 attack on our own soil. It has done a great deal of good, but as you already suggested, it has not reduced either the scale or the scope of terrorism around the world. In fact, for those of you that may have possibly noted this in october, a new National Counterterrorism strategy was approved by the Administration Last october and in the opening sentences of the new strategy, it makes it a very important acknowledgment that despite all of our efforts as am