Politico covers food and agriculture and we are proud of that. It is for those not familiar with politicals washington dc news outlet and im sure all of you are reading it and getting ourll newsletters and content ad delighted to be here todayto in texas, one of my favorite states in the union and im not just pandering. Well talk about the state of agriculture in 2020 and beyond and before we start i want to encourage you to join the conversation on social media with the trip assessed 19. I also want to give a big thanks to the practice t to be in vestl for hosting this great event and i understand Texas Farm Bureau is supporting this and we will hear fromg them. We have a good panel and i dont know if you realize that but we have, we got two texans and an iowan, which is great. Across the ideological spectrum in state and federal perspectives and friendly theres a lot going on in agriculture so funny to talk about and we will take the questions at the end so keep in mind anything you want to ask the panel and we will leave time for discussion and dialogue. To begin we have Texas Agriculture commissioner said muller. He is let that department 2016. [applause] then of course we got former agriculture secretary tom bill back. [applause] he not only led the Obama Administration but is the longest sitting cabinet member in that in administration. The twoterm t Iowa Governor and now part of the export council. If state representative drew springer represents almost the largest district in texas and its larger than 74 countries and is more than twice the size of massachusetts. Nc also chair of the Agriculture Committee in state legislator which i understand has been getting quite a bit of buzz. We will talk about that. T. Welcome. [applause] want to set the stage here and i think we probably have a non agricultural audience here and probably jeanine in as well there are only about 2 Million People in the country that are directly farming so a lot of people without their eating wearing fiber and using the fuey engaged in the industry as much as we used to be so theres a big disconnect and most are not the about agriculture everyday but theres a lot going on and i was hoping each of you could set the stage of where you think we are right now in the agriculture sector. Theres been a lot of bad newsto and the trade war and the impact has had crazy weather this year but where are things in the industry and what is the mood and sentiment and what is going on that those outside of agriculture are not tuned into. I will start with you, commissioner. Is over 100 billiondollar industry run inside jobs is related agriculture in the state. With the the state in exports, goats, hey, the list goes on. Ag hasef alreadys the second largest industry but even before we had an oil and gas industry ag has been the glue that held our state together from the earliest settlers to the longhorn cattle drives. Its been the driving force for our state. Let me tell you why i think its important and we talk about usmc a talk about tariffs and trade. Laredo, texas there are 17 points of entry. Thats the largest inland port in the united states. One day at a time there are 14000 trucks going back and forth acrossor that. On a slow day its about half a billion dollars worth of trade in on a busy day about 1 billion between the state of texas and mexico. Agriculture is a big deal in our states and thats whyhy my department is a Big Department and i have to oversee a 6 billiondollar budget and thats just a number but if i told you that mr. Secretary that might but it was larger than the budget of 31 governors that put that in perspective so the largest thing we do at the moment of agriculture is im responsible for 5 million [inaudible] each day so we do cows, plows and sows but we do a lot of other things you dont know about. Were the best unknown agency in the state of texas. How are texas farmers doing right now . What is the sentiment . Farming and ranching is always a struggle. I tell everyone im an eighth generation farmer and rancher and we have a couple more canoe years we might pay for it and thats the way it is in agriculture. We are struggling a little bit and we do have highlights weve had an uptick in the wild livestock industry coming back and the cattle business is looking good and we have [inaudible] on the horizon that everyone is excited about and we have our first productionur so e are at a point inur state where i like to call it agriculture 3. 0. 1. 0 was subsistence farming when most of the farm and then we went to agriculture 2. 0 and had the mechanization and we invented that combines an you went from farming 40 acres to 4000 acres and thats what we just did and now we are entering agriculture threepoint oh and thats the technology age. Now we are using gps tracking, global positioning, drones, we are doing more with vertical farming and the whole thing is changing. Us one thing is constant in agriculture but in agriculture we have this constantly produce more with less and thats our challenge. We lose about one farmer week here in texas with encroachment and your 2050 we will double the amount of food we produce in less land to do it on but agriculture is good about rising up to those challenges and we will continue to do that. Secretary, where you see secretary right now . You have a good pulse on whats going on and you think the average consumer will understand . I want to complement the commissioner by his remarks began with a number of jobs connected to this industry. I think again people dont understand that when we take a look at the food and agriculture industry as a single industry areillion americans impacted directly by the industry and i makes it the largest in the country. Its a big deal. Agriculture is doing well people will be employed in exports are incredibly important. 30 of all that we produce export at 23 is directly related to exports of talk about trade agreements and tariffs is important. I would answer the question taken off with what commissioner said it depends on the timeframe you are talking about but if you talk about how things right now i think some folks are feeling stressed. As the commissioner indicated a couple years of pretty typical ic that had uncertainty in the trade area and so theres a bit of stress out there. However, if you look at the alarm longterm future its amazingly positive and the commissioner mentioned the diversity of agriculture that we are saying hydroponics, organic, slim base materials but i think also as a talke about climate ad the changing climate that we can talk about new Revenue Streams for farms. That opens up an exciting new future for farming generally that may make it more profitable and more consistently profitable thats the big challenge and farming is ups and downs. Ng we are beginning to flatten those peaks and valleys out and prices are coming up and we had a record year in exports last year and a little bit of a challenge and our value is up significantly and were selling 900 million more in dairy that we did last year. Its pricey to hear about the trade war and lack of exports and you are finally way american agriculture is global in its scope. We send a lot south in terms of dairy we dont send as much north as we need to in canada my that u. S. Mca is important. We sent to north africa you might find that surprisingg but to southeast asia, japan, china and we send literally all over the world and as the World Population grows and becomes more urbanized there will be greater demand for protein and dairy protein can satisfy a lot of that protein needs. I think longterm things will eretmuch better but right now theres a bit of stress out s there. Continuing to build on that we have seen agriculture is the early Tech Industry and we went from one person on the farm and one in the city to now we will see that growth from the 48 rows to the gps is driving from that standpoint and in the dairy industry with her talk about announcing a dairy farm that has because labor is harder and harder to get. We are seeing drones that can flyy and identify which cow is hot and needs treatment rather than treating the entire pen of 1000 cows with antibiotics we have healthier food to eat and not overmedicating and doing the same thing with irrigation and be able to test the soil rather than where we used to spend 22 inches of water on constant were now down to 12 inches so receiving those innovations come through. At the same time we have those challenges. One challenge is i think were seen in our cattle industry basically half the state of texas ag industry is back and were seeing a breakdown of the commodity board and class action lawsuits going on and folks are going to the auction barns and are not getting paid a free price and its clear theres been inflation going on and the federal government has notther addressed that but over the next couple of years we have to do that or else we will see 20 folks going broke. Do you think the folks in your district are generally optimistic about the direction of agriculture . Ouon touch on the stress and low Commodity Prices are climbing, they put a lot of farmers in a risky situation or get to the next year. The guys that are in itit iso that and always optimistic and is not a more optimistic especially in texas get more worried about the Young Farmers and how can they afford to get in when an acre is my home county of 40000 people is well over 5000 an acre. You have to take on debt service to raise cattle in that climate you get to be tough to do that and thats where we face our bigger challenges. It sounds like theres a optimism which i hear from as well and i think theres been a lot of coverage and narrative around the Financial Stress and the impact of the trade war in the moment that agriculture is in and National Media coverage has been arounded what is that mean politically and that in the lex next election farmers and ranchers might pull away from President Trump and theres been such a strong constituency and no one is talking about that level of [laughter] you read the stories and it very strongly presented that President Trump is at risk of losing this constituency not that farmers and ranchers are losing elections but its an example of [inaudible] for the president during an agriculture. I suspect thats more local than it is national. I got to member im in texas so this will be hard for me to say here but the reality is where i come from people are deeply concerned about the renewable fuel standard and the fact tha that briefly state what that is smack basically the established minimum levels of ethanol blended into our fuels and biofuels. We are using it and you not might be thinking about it consumers. Actually using it but from a midwestern farmers perspectiveca as much as we could. There has been some uncertainty of where the demonstration is how mothery they are more inclined to focus on their Midwest Farmers and i think that issue more so than the trade and difficult prices could potentially drive farmers to different political decision. I think farmers generally are willing to understand the necessity of going after china and they have questions about whether or not we whenever it the right way by ourselves as opposed to a coalition of nations where we could have potentially been more successfuu and they understand china is not playing by the rules and thatth someone had to call them on it. Theyre willing to be patient in that respect but the ethanol industry and issue with corn prices are not what they need to be in jobs are lost and causing stress and concern. I think thats right but were close to close a deal on that with the president s whereabouts and eye contact with them and the administration and they want to take care of the corner farmers. They do not mean for the waivers to get out and they done really good stuff for the agriculture industry with less regulations and all of that and we will get to the point in the interview real quick for this and it will be resolved and the mums will be required to restore thosed ways of ethanol amounts. Ethanol is y vital to our natiol curity and helps us be Energy Independent so i think we are almost there on that, mr. Secretary. Keep your fingers crossed. One thing i would add is how it will affect in my district which is 86 before resident trump and they are sitting there looking at the alternative saying weve got a testament down here opposed to the oil and gas industry well if you farming and ranching odds are you might have an amount below that but on the inside if youre a president ial candidate saying they want to illuminate by having a cow tax to make sure the only super elite can afford to eat cattle. They sit back and look at it from the standpoint and once again thats the big driver in texas. Not big in the cotton or im sorry, corn and soybeans from that same point but i can tell you they are not wavering for President Trumpde. I have a lot of interviews where the farmers are sticking with trump with tariffs and all the fellows we are going through with china and i think farmers get it in the long run. We made a huge mistake from a business point that you should never allow anyone customer to have 60 or more of your business and thats what happened with china. When you do that they can get you. Weve always been any trade war with china. I think farmers understand in the long run will be a lot better off by spreading out our risk and being less reliant on one big customer so in my department we have been hustling not to find a new market and not just return from ten days in india and here ill be leaving to go to vietnam so we are out hustling those new markets. Friendly, if we can replace that market we lost ill get if we send china anything else ever again. We got to spread our risk. Thats easy from a guy from texas to say but the soybean farmers will have a different time finding an alternative market for what they sold to china. Theres just no way. Be thats a challenge. Thats a lot of consumers but to your point there has been a shift toward being or to having your eggs in a different basket and not having if you have one trading partner that will completely decimate in one year. [inaudible] we are dividing that out inviting these customers and we been pretty successful at it. That way if you have one angry customer you can replace we will be less reliant on china. I hear a lot more you see reflected. Folks will need patience with china. It is still unclear as to what our position is relative to china. Are we trying to disengage our economies from the chinese economy and say we are closely linked to the Commissioners Point and rv trying to disengage and go to the rest of the world or trying to change their way of doing business so we can do business more easily with them. We are asking them to essentially change the way they do business in their own country and thats a heavy lift. Thats why these negotiations have been difficult but its also difficult because we went along. We spent time building an alliance with european, japanese, koreans and folks in south america and it would have been more difficult, not impossible, but to put the bullseye on American Farmers. I think the administration recognizes that it is trying to reach outor to see if they can t some support from the eu because i was over in europe and in european official came up to me and said thank you for what youre doing over there. As long as you are hustling with china there buying our stuff. Theyre not buyingwe from you bt from us. If you succeed and get them to change the rules he will benefit from that, too. We get the best of both worlds and dont pay a price. One thing that might be good to explain about the general dynamic is one of the reasons agriculture is so vulnerable and trade of any kind as we are so efficient at production and so good at selling our products that we have a surplus and have long had a surplus compared to other industries. We are importing way more clothing but exporting way more agricultural goods than we are importing which means if youre fighting with us youre like thats the thing to target. I th sometes folks dont fully understand that but that is why agriculture is so vulnerable because you know, the part of that is the efficiency of the market place working with china and america are getting along and yes, we deal directly with them. They just went to vietnam and other countries. Take on moving that. Same things happened to soybeans. The u. S. Is backfilling where to. Il used to fill so you do have that. Capacity and x some of these left over, yes, you dont want to be the last one holding. But i think its painted too often in the media that we dont our soybeans to china, theyre just going to rot. Thats not true. Get a smaller amount for them. You might not make money but rot. Re not going to ok. Respect,ll due representative, there are bins full of soybeans in my state. Before the harvest. Theres really no place to put those soybeans. Thats the challenge. Commissioners point, overreliant on one market, it disruption. But heres the frustration for people who arent farmers. That you just imagine that you were the best at something, best in the world. Imagine you were the best in the history of the world at what you did. And in the best year of farm in 2014, 75 of you would make less than 10,000. Player,he best baseball what are you making, commissioner . Youre the best doc, what are making . Best f you might go out of business. Thats the frustrating thing about farming. We do have the best that ever was. Good news. Good news. Just this last week, correct me on the numbers, but i think it was 750 million tons of soybeans. 750,000. How much was it . 750,000. Thats a good star except we normally would sell 7 billion. Yeah, but they are starting to buy our beans again. I think, yeah, a few years ago it was like 14 million. Yeah. So, you know, it is like a small step because over the summer, after talks broke down, they stopped buying a lot of you got to get started. Thats a pretty good start. Yeah, i know, everyone is really anxious we can talk about trade all day. I want to come back to 2020. I think your point whats the alternative is an interesting one. You dont hear agriculture talked about a lot in president ial debates, whether they are primaries or general, it is not a major issue, which i think sometimes some are both happy about and not happy about. You want to be an important major election issue, but also sometimes it is helpful to not have it be politicized. We have seen in the Democratic Party a little bit