Republican pollster who worked for the Trump Campaign to let me begin with the quinnipiac poll. 55 of those polled support the impeachment inquiry of President Trump. 43 said no. When they talked to independents, they saw the number jumpe. This is a dramatic 14 point shift over just the last week. You are President Trumps pollster. Saying. Lets say you are. You come to him with these numbers, what advice do you give him . Guest i dont know. I dont know if it would matter. He seems to move to the beat of his own drum. Nothing i see him doing is coming from the advice of consultants or people that are trying to take more traditional ways of winning campaigns. He seems to be doing his own thing. I dont know if it matters what anyone tells him. We are seeing the same types of numbers. We are doing daily tracking on the views on impeachment. We are not saying that big of a jump. The numbers do not look great for where this is heading. I think you see with republicans they kind of know this. The white house seems to think their best approach is to attack the process versus the facts. Lets go after the process and make this seem as horrible as possible to make us look better. Hypothetical, you are working for one of these Democratic Candidates, what should they do . Guest really when i look at those numbers, the impeachment numbers, it is kind of just matching up with the president s Approval Rating for his job. I think these numbers, like you said this is a big jump from independents. Take a look at who are these people that were pulled. A lot of these samples that are being polled, they lean more partisan. When we take a look at more gallup hass, i think 38 of people so identify as independents. These numbers do matchup with the president s job approval numbers. Host what does that mean for you polling for the rnc . Give us the lay of the land for this race. Stuck the president has between the low to mid 40s of approval. That is not changed much. Basically this whole time since the 2016 election, we have bounced from witchhunt to witchhunt on the democrat side looking for something that will stick. That has not happened. Democrats have their plans, and they will keep to do this same thing. We have some things that are hitting slightly. The Progressive Democratic voters in the primary, but not the rest of the country. We do see some changes, but i dont think this hits as hard as a lot of democratic pollsters want it to. Host would you agree with that . Tracking tove been the beginning of this on september 23. Line, you havel a point or two here or there. That is the case going back to 2016. It is hard to imagine anything will actually change those numbers. Fanbase, and that is not going to change. The odds of him winning the popular vote seems close to zero. It is going to come down to wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. And if story. I feel bad for those voters in those states. Nobody is good to be left alone. Can the democrats win those three states . If they can, whoever is the nominee will win. If they cannot, trump will win the election. Host why those three states . Caller there are not many states from our viewpoint that clinton won that trump can win. Maybe new hampshire. Maybe. There is not much Growth Potential for trump. He could lose one of those states. If he loses all three, there is no math that gets them back to the 270 that he needs. Same thing for the democrats. You just have to win those states. Stop worrying about arizona, florida, North Carolina. That is gravy. That is just spiking the football. We have to get to the end zone first. We have to get those three rust belt, midwestern states. Host how do you appeal to those voters . Wisconsin,sylvania, michigan, that is a lot of bluecollar workers. These are people donald trump talks about a lot. They have been left behind by the democratic party. For years they voted straight democratic ticket. They were not talked to. Issues, but they were not talking about jobs and providing and making sure families could grow their income and businesses. Trump started talking about that and talking to those voters. We are looking at bringing call pennsylvania, a lot of bluecollar voters. There are growing jobs there. Michigan and wisconsin, these are hardworking workers that understand trump. We saw voters moved from the democratic side to the president s side in 2016. Now we need to hang onto those votes. Host is it difficult for democrats to make an argument in those states when the economy is doing well and you have 50 year historic unemployment . Yes and no. Obviously we did a terrible job of it in 2016, or we would have won those states. I dont think we have quite found the right way to talk to these voters. We do a good job of talking down to voters. You are voting against your interests. Banishedthat should be from the democratic party. Just move along. There is a lot that democrats can point to that what trump is doing is talking but not actually doing anything that is helping. We are not seeing a lot of job growth in the areas that are hurting. Hurtingff war is farmers, manufacturing areas. Coal is not coming back. This race is going to be about trump. I dont think there is any way around that. If we could get past that, democrats need to talk about the is what we want to ge economy to be, looking forward, not looking backwards. Viewerswant to get our involved in the conversation. Republicans 202 7488001. Democrats 202 7488000. Independents 202 7488002. You can also text us with your first name, city, and state at 202 7488003. Mcguire, the president , or are either voting for him against him this race seems to be. What do you do with that . Guest i enjoy that. I think that is a good place for republicans to be an. We have a lot of the congressmans. Looking at africanamerican unemployment, september is the lowest it has ever been. We have a lot of accomplishments. Looking at africanamerican unemployment, september is the lowest it has ever been. When i take a look at where trump stands against a generic ballot, the generic performs a bit better, but remember this is headtohead race. It is going to be donald trump against Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg or one of the other candidates. That is when we see what donaldd in 2016 when trump and Hillary Clinton went headtohead. We talked about doing things differently. That is what the president has done. He talks about promises made, promises kept. When we talk about looking at terrace and china, the president said he was going to do things differently. He said he was going to challenge china and take time and be tough. That is why his support has held among republicans. Support for the present among republicans. People understand what the president is trying to accomplish is different. Host where do you see vulnerabilities for the president . With which voters . Guest we can take a look at the 2018 cycle. Turnout was the highest it has ever been, something that we watched and monitored the entire time. Turnout in texas, first predictions were looking at 5. 5 million, and they ended up with 8 million voters in texas. Making sure the Republican Party is energizing our own voters. You do see that in a trump election. Republican voters came out. We need to encourage Republican Voters to turn out for the president. Host where do you see vulnerabilities . Guest one thing 2018 showed us is suburban districts, republicans lost a number of seats. There needs to be a lot of work done there. I think the Republican National committee is spending a lot of time there, working with women, working with suburban communities that they did not feel they appreciated how the president spoke about certain issues. That was the response. Lets look at something different. Once the president continues his efforts to help this country, you might not fully agree with how he speaks, but he is getting things done. Is doing better, and that is what matters. Host which one of these Democratic Candidates appeals best to suburban voters . Guest we are working for one, but fall caveat, i am not here as part of the campaign. This is why we see so many candidates on the democratic side, and now there has been a little handwringing over the last few days. Bidens fundraising is not there, so they are calling in a super pac to help. That is not a great sign. Ders are a lot more to the left than other candidates. Sanders is like donald trump, where he has his support, and it is hard to see him going higher or lower. Is that 20 enough to win . You have buttigieg, who is younger, gay. People are like, im not sure if america is ready for that. This is what democrats do. We worry. I dont think there is a perfect unicorn candidate. A lot of this for the democrats is going to come down to this is going to be a team. Democrats have to energize the base, turn out africanamerican, inpanic, voters of color places like milwaukee, detroit, and pittsburgh. Have to get those numbers up. Clinton did not do that. We have to go after the suburban voter, especially suburban women. Get them to stay with the democrats as we did in the 2018 cycle. It is hard for me to point to one candidate and say that is the one that does it. I can point to a pair and say that is a great team. Host which pair . Guest you are telling me here. Basically, i am going to not answer your question. Whoever gets the nomination, you need to look at who you need to bring in. The nomination, i think booker would be a great pairing. If it is biden, i think he needs kamala harris. And not to say, biden is not getting support from the africanamerican community, but someone who can go in and energize the turnout. Hankin is a democratic pollster and strategist who wants to stay employed by the Booker Campaign so dodging this a little bit. Caller good morning. Its funny that the republican strategist, how he talks about, i think he is correct. Let me say, i have been a democrat since clinton, but im in construction. Im in the trade unions. Now the republican person said he talked about how people lean towards trump because he spoke about bringing jobs back from china and stop the flow of illegal immigrants. Obviously people want the higherpaying manufacturing jobs back from china. Whether that will ever happen is the point. This is a very important thing that i dont think the democrats really address. The republican president spoke directly about that. That is a huge issue. As far as the democrats, i thi nk, just for me, im an antiwar person. This whole issue with syria, i have not heard any democrats say lets get the troops out of syria. 100 rightmp is about syria. Im very left wing. I am antiwar. It has been a big issue for me. Now we have a candidate who is egree,trating, to a d obviously not fully. When i think of Democratic Candidates, i think of tulsi gabbard, Bernie Sanders, and maybe even Elizabeth Warren for her prior work against the wall street banks. Host thank you. Guest we do here this quite a bit. That is exactly the fact that we understand that we need to focus on america first. That is one of the big differences. When we talk about china, china has been brutal to america, especially intellectual property. That is one thing we need to adjust. It is great to hear that hardworking people understand this, and there are efforts being done. President sbout the crossover on trade when he talks about being against nafta as he did in 2016 and his crossover appeal on ending these endless wars . A weirdt is like alternate universe where now democrats are appropriate and republicans are left. Our economy has been shifting and changing dramatically over the past 10 to 20 years. It is happening everywhere. You see it in the u. K. With brexit and germany and france with afd in germany and Marine Le Pen in france. You have jobs that are no longer as big a part of the economy as they used to be, a lot of manufacturing and coal. These things are shifting. We are moving away from a time when jobs like that where providing a great were providing a great middleclass life in certain areas. That is very scary and disheartening and tough. And talk toin there those people and connect with them and say we understand what you are going through and do something about it . Angle thatmp took an i am not going to agree with, but he spoke to it directly and clearly connected with people. That is what democrats did not do well. They did not say, this is how we see you fitting into this new world. If you are 55 and 10 years from retirement, you are not going to learn to become a programmer. This is not going to happen. We did a bad job of making that connection, whereas donald trump did a good job. Im not saying i agree with his methods or solution, but he spoke to it. Host chris, you are next. Caller i always think the polls are mixed. Bidens video came out before donald trump spoke to the ukrainian president. I think this is starting to come out. Obamas plumbers are going to be far worse than anything nixon or clinton had. People want government to babysit them. They are going to vote for the democratic party. Manchinnly someone like is a viable candidate to beat trump. Host what do you think about that, only mansion . Guest sure, some conspiracy theories in there that im not sure what they mean. Manchin is the only viable candidate who could win to the level that he does in West Virginia that has clearly made moved away from democrats. That is the epicenter of the economy moving away from what they are based on. He would not win a democratic primary on the president ial level. He is not going to do well in california, massachusetts, new york, which is fine. We need to be a big tent. We need to have as many different types of members as possible. Manchin can be a complete pain in the but and vote against where democrats want him to become that is fine because we are a big tent. We cannot just be one thing. It is important to have people in the party and people like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and the party because we need that perspective. I think he is a great candidate for West Virginia. Caller hi, greta. Hankin, i think i heard you said earlier you are not sure how your party would message the three key states. I have an idea, something simple like reagan. Are you any better off . On the stump, i hear him say there are 10,000 new manufacturing plants up. Where are those . T. 0 miles of wall was buil where . Guest thank you. You are hired. It is simple, but its true. They are saying things, and there is actually doing things. What has actually happened . It is the are you better off than you were four years ago . If the answer is yes, they will likely vote trump. If the answer is no, they will likely vote democratic. Who democrats need to go after to win those suburban voters, it is good to be a more targeted message. It is going to be a little less about manufacturing and a little less about steel tariffs that dont hit home with suburban voters as much as rural voters depending on the area you are in. It is about winning this thing. We are going to have to be targeted and precise. Targeting, and we have to fix that real quick. Host what about the money disparity between the president and all Democratic Candidates . Guest i am less concerned about that because if you pool all the money from the democrats, it is still less, but it is not a huge amount. I have no doubt that whoever is the nominee is going to be fully funded. We have to spend in three states. Fund those things twice over. Guest i think seeing the amount of money the Trump Campaign has raised is great. This money is being raised and spent. This is what the rnc does now. The Trump Campaign announced reelection right after inauguration and got right to work. You see these campaigners in the field out there working and building the digital and data infrastructure, something the Trump Campaign does a phenomenal job at. When he says, you are not worried about the differential, that money the rnc is raising is being spent and being used, which is laying the groundwork to hold strong in the states. When you say republicans need to play defense, we are well on our way to doing that. I think that really shows how many voters are trump voters. These people are excited. They are excited to come out and support their president. People like to talk about donated to campaigns. They tell their friends and family members. Thanksgiving, they will be telling friends and family that they donated. That is something you saw in the obama reelection. People getting excited. You are seeing that now. I think that is great to see from the republican side. Once again, democrats, there is still a pretty big field. The dnc tries to narrow it down, and they are still shooting at each other. The president coming out at 9 00 a. M. This morning, expected to make a statement about the killing of the isis leader. What do you suspect you will see in the polls when you go out into the field of this leader who has been trailed, who the u. S. And others have tried to kill for four to five years . Ine a look at the headline 2011, Osama Bin Laden dead, barack obama given reelection boost. Sawt in that election, you obama saying Osama Bin Laden is dead. Big jump in the polls. I think you are going to see the president today talking about this plan they have had and how it has been executed and will talk about our Service Members that contributed to this and the work we have done in the middle east and how this fits in well. Moving out of the area. Host i just want to show for our viewers, some are making note this morning a President Trumps tweet in 2012 saying, stop congratulating obama for killing bin laden, the navy laden. Illed bin guest with the president , there is always a treat that says the exact opposite of what he is saying now. His numbers are pretty steady. I would be shocked to see any kind of bump. Laden was a household name, and i cannot even tell you the name of the isis leader. That is great news, but i dont think people are going to say that changes m