Transcripts For CSPAN2 Campaign 2020 New Hampshire Primary P

She has brutally covered other president ial elections. Hes an onair political analyst for New Hampshires w nu and a commentator for cnn and political. Patrick griffin is also a cnn commentator, longtime New Hampshire political strategist and a visiting fellow at the center for political future and a fabulous teacher he advised president george w. Bush and recently serves as a Senior Advisor to New Hampshire governor. My friend, mike murphy, codirector of the center, veteran of five president ial campaigns and the numerous campaigns for senators and governors including Arnold Schwarzenegger and mitch romney. Patrick, i will begin with a question that we will start with you. A lot of critics think New Hampshire with the lack of diversity should never be the first primary state. What is your response to that and will this change . My responses it will probably never change we can talk about that for a second but there is a great amount of hostage taking, malfeasance and holdups everything but cash changing hands. This is in order to keep New Hampshire first. I say that with Great Respect and its an important part but more than anything the point is why is there a New Hampshire . Because New Hampshire says so at this point. New hampshire has an interesting history but they will not give this primary up and have been enacting legislation to keep it and they fought with iowa and now they are in a cabal together to keep iowa first and New Hampshires second. They says there will be no contest within a days or seven days excuse me before and after the contest and bill gardner who was secretary of state who run things in New Hampshire with a iron fist hes doing good to hold that election christmas eve, new years eve or valentines day to make sure it goes first. The answer is externally homogenized and he doesnt look like america. It is largely white and it is frankly not as conservative as the republic inside as it could be representing other states and not as liberal on the democratic side as it could be. The largest voters in New Hampshire are independent and that means on election day you can pull a ballot from either party so its an interesting place because not only are the democrats and revolt against the basis of both parties have an opportunity to vote and as one woman said in the focus groups i never vote for a candidate i have not danced with at least twice. Its a small state. 1. 3 Million People drive the length and it makes for Great Television because there are high snowbanks and around is to buy a l. L. Bean jacket and everyone from new york and washington looks like theyre on a camping trip. The optics or rate from a television standpoint. The end of the date it doesnt look like america but its clunky and moment go and force people like joe biden right now, former Vice President to trudge through and put up with what he is going through right now. In a new poll today hes having a tough time. What does that mean . It means that the president , Vice President , senators, governors who are famous have to come and do a bit of scraping with the locals and practice retail politics and somehow we believe that creates character and makes them a better candidate, at least that is the argument. The short answer out of all of that, i dont think the changes but i think the press is going to love covering New Hampshire and part of it is tradition and the other piece is the humiliation factor and the strongest candidate are put through in a place where we have to stand in a snow bank and answer the 15 question about the International Monetary fund patiently. Yeah, james, i was going to ask you. The criticisms of New Hampshire are completely legit. I am about in the system as possible as someone who went to college in des moines because of the caucuses and i made my way to New Hampshire and this is my seventh president ial primary and im about as biased as a person you could be on New Hampshire and i can say that because you look at my bio but the criticisms are real and completely legit. They are not diverse estates but are largely rules states at a time when america is become increasingly urban and it frames the conversation around issues that may not be as relevant to most americans. Yes, we are affecting record high turnout in the democratic primary in february if that is when it is and thats about a quarter of a Million People maybe 275 in california has got 40 Million People so in terms of perspective it is or has an outside influence but criticisms are real. When we have this conversation what bothers me is we dont have you will hear me say a lot tonight but its as opposed to what . As opposed to what . That is what we should talk about it we can talk about in this criticisms but there are a couple days that matter but 1916 matters. Ill be quick. 1916 matters because out of the progressive era we decided these private clubs that are little parties we should open that up some more so we started having primary elections. It did not really matter that much and the three states started off the process and New Hampshire was not first in 1916 but minnesota and indiana were first and moved it back but then you elected delegates and thats the whole point. You elected delegates and that changed in 1952 in the modern era with the primary when you did elect president s. Some candidates, not all, campaigns and another important date is 1968 in the Democratic Party Democratic Party may know in her history of the famous Chicago Convention but lets remember what happened. In New Hampshire lbj was reduced to just 60 of the vote and one but mccarthy got close to 40 and as a result two weeks later lbj said he would accept the nomination and will not pursue or accept but what happened in 1968 there are only 14 states that hold primaries that year. Think about that. Fourteen states and so we would trudge through and eventually bobby kaye got in the race and later on humphrey got in the race but the idea is the candidates who ran in these primaries were not the people who were nominated and was a very inside lecture it wanted so we can never have this again so as opposed to what . The Party Insiders still decided and they decided humphrey would take over for they changed it again and said here is what we will do. Starting in 72 and ease into 76 we will create iowa and New Hampshire and that the people decide now we have more states in every state is getting involved as opposed to what . Then we had the mythology and 76 and the creation of jimmy carter. The one person who is created the mythology that you could be this random person and peanut farmer from georgia and be elected president. Now we have today which here is where we are today witches New Hampshire is still first. Iowa is still first but their clout has significantly diminished. They may remain first though we are not witnessing the most nationalized residential primary season that weve ever seen in this modern creation of the last 47 years of this latest iteration and consider the dnc qualifying rules for how you qualify for a debate. In the last debate there were 20 qualifying poles. Twelve were National Polls. Which were completely irrelevant and they decided he wanted to have these polls count and the campaign does not take place in kansas so why are we take place in illinois and it could take place in texas. New hampshire may persist in the criticisms are real. I shared the criticisms and the skepticism of having two white states help pick our president s and as i covered campaigns but there are two things that suffered. Number one is after iowa and New Hampshire give South Carolina and nevada. Nevada has largest growing population of latino voters. That helps adjust the diversity issue but beyond that i grew up on the east coast of the delano with netflix and california where large states were campaigns were run on tv and going to iowa and hampshire and see barack obama or mitt romney or jeb bush this 20 feet away from you talking to voters and real people that you would never see that in california or other large states. It makes a candidate even if the candidates have the most money in the world makes them talk to voters but voters are smart and relish their duty of asking tough questions. They will get a softball here or there but its impressive to watch. I think it gives a chance for the candidates who arent as i wonder if the 2008 campaign with the Hillary Obama competition in iowa if that had taken place in a state like a hornet with that have been possible and i dont think so because hillary was so well known and obama was able to meet voters generate excitement and then pulling off a surprise win that gave other people in the country that we have is nearly all white space willing to vote and i dont know if you could have that same outcome in a large state the big tv presence and these intimate events. Mike, do have something quick before we can move on . Is an arms race here. Quickly, i agree. If you take the first four iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary, South Carolina and combine them because that is that for is the lever on the process. It does become pretty diverse and get rural in new england and christian conservatives and even jello goals, representing the south in South Carolina and parts of iowa and a huge and vitally important africanamerican votes in the South Carolina primary so if you come them all together its regional and diversity and the other point would be the other way to do it is totally nationalized and the problem is the more famous you are the better you do. This system lets the smaller candidates have a shot with less resources and an entrepreneurial basis to try to crack the thing and get momentum. I disagree with james a little bit that i think they will be influential but what i agree with them on his its become nationalized but the stage upon which the National Context is mostly played is the last 60 days which we are about to begin and then the turbulent eight days later New Hampshire through the nevada caucus and South Carolina. Its more of a hybrid and not as isolated as before but they are still the voters count 100 times more than any of us. Let me be clear but when we get to the voting there could be hugely the process for which we get there. And the qualifying for. There is no way you win these early states. I want to now turn from whether New Hampshire is ideal or not because i dont think it will ever change and New Hampshire and iowa are both arguably battleground states and the party that tries to take away the first caucus refers primary will do very badly in the general election so i dont think it will move. I wanted to handicap the New Hampshire primary as of today. First about how much trouble biden is in. He fell into third place in the new cnn, unh poll at 15 . Beyond that is warns momentum likely to be sustained then is sanders position to repeat 2016 victory in New Hampshire in 2020. James, do you want to start . Sanders one with 22 of the vote and 22 of the margin. There was the largest margin of victory since jfk. Its a huge and he started with such a head start. He has anna normas committee that was actively meeting every month to guinea and 2017. He started with such a head start. But a lot on that energy has now going to other people and clearly was either hillary or bernie. He still very much in the game and theres no question about it. I feel right now like this is a state that still despite the ups and downs is framed as a state of warren or Bernie Sanders will win. If you look at history the new england candidate has won everything on time and they went all the time. Except for once. Teddy kennedy challenging the president in 1980 but theyve lost and that said iowa could likely have someone who has elevated and that person is not warren or sanders the person will be a major contender coming into the state. That is where things on the top level standard. Mike what has happened to biden . Biden started out by hacking conventional wisdom by being famous enough to have an early lead in National Polls which are the weakest indicator and they give you basically a report on last weeks noise meter so because biden was famous that was his initial advantage and i would say if i was head of the drc form an Intelligent Service i would drive media posters because those polls of the temple for money, conventional wisdom, press coverage and Everything Else but once again back to the first question once you get to the smaller arena the mayor pete and the warrants can show up and start to sell tickets. Biden for all his strengths and still has some has the burden of being a frontrunner in the competitive markets where people know about slowly other candidates and he is not fearing as well. Mayor pete is emerged as the biden understudy and should he collapse if biden finishes third in iowa which i think is a possibly or maybe even fourth but if he does when hes supposed to be superman but if he cant lift up a locomotive not only is warren who may be the real biden a slayer in theres room for someone else who will be in New Hampshire and the dynamic becomes printed really interesting. In New Hampshire you have a big independent vote. We do not carry republicans when we cross george w. Bush. We were competitive but it was now not that close but we destroyed within defendants who crossed over semi New Hampshire poll i look for the last week after iowa where i see volvos in the parking lot. [laughter] you suggested to me that mayor pete to boot a judge is not only surging in iowa but that he is he and why is that . This is a game of expectations. This narrative has taken a while to play out. The media starts covering places like iowa and New Hampshire very early. Our Attention Spans today are very different because of this and back in the days when we could instantaneously receive not only the news that we wanted to hear but we can also sort the news by which news we wish to believe. We filter the stuff as we need to get it. Expectation game gets dragged out over a long period of time. The race starts as bob and mike and james know that after the election in immediately who makes the first visit to iowa and New Hampshire . That expectation game continues for a long period of time. Many people 17 people. Big crowd for someone who never been famous before. Thats a lot of people. They compared it to happen four years ago or three years ago and i dont want to play the game because New Hampshire is a bit of an enigma. We like to think about someone who talks like the person i just spoke about but thats not really what New Hampshire is most in southern New Hampshire are people who work and live in massachusetts. Many of them commute to boston and come to New Hampshire because they dont want to pay an income tax. And they read the globe. [laughter] the largest selling and New Hampshire. The fact is its a different place in New Hampshire is always the place that cherishes independence and the union leader and for years and years called the shots and hated democrats and loved republicans but set the rebellions they hated and they really hated them. That is change. The influence of newspapers as medium has changed but more importantly the influence of expectations doesnt which is why murphy and i sit around the fire and talk about this a lot. Iowa begets New Hampshire. I use your exact language murphy but i worked the club. You can. New hampshire has one job which is basically to screw iowa after the Iowa Caucuses bid they tend to set things right. First thing, iowa takes corn, New Hampshire picks president s. This whole idea that they will have a caucus and we have a real election and people come out, a vote in secret ballots, not a caucus and we have to wrestle with somebody to get them to join your team but the expectation is coming out of iowa used to be free tickets. You tried to get free tickets out of iowa but New Hampshire got down to two and maybe want to get out of South Carolina. That has changed the conventional wisdom is it different. Does anyone think New Hampshire<\/a>s w nu and a commentator for cnn and political. Patrick griffin is also a cnn commentator, longtime New Hampshire<\/a> political strategist and a visiting fellow at the center for political future and a fabulous teacher he advised president george w. Bush and recently serves as a Senior Advisor<\/a> to New Hampshire<\/a> governor. My friend, mike murphy, codirector of the center, veteran of five president ial campaigns and the numerous campaigns for senators and governors including Arnold Schwarzenegger<\/a> and mitch romney. Patrick, i will begin with a question that we will start with you. A lot of critics think New Hampshire<\/a> with the lack of diversity should never be the first primary state. What is your response to that and will this change . My responses it will probably never change we can talk about that for a second but there is a great amount of hostage taking, malfeasance and holdups everything but cash changing hands. This is in order to keep New Hampshire<\/a> first. I say that with Great Respect<\/a> and its an important part but more than anything the point is why is there a New Hampshire<\/a> . Because New Hampshire<\/a> says so at this point. New hampshire has an interesting history but they will not give this primary up and have been enacting legislation to keep it and they fought with iowa and now they are in a cabal together to keep iowa first and New Hampshire<\/a>s second. They says there will be no contest within a days or seven days excuse me before and after the contest and bill gardner who was secretary of state who run things in New Hampshire<\/a> with a iron fist hes doing good to hold that election christmas eve, new years eve or valentines day to make sure it goes first. The answer is externally homogenized and he doesnt look like america. It is largely white and it is frankly not as conservative as the republic inside as it could be representing other states and not as liberal on the democratic side as it could be. The largest voters in New Hampshire<\/a> are independent and that means on election day you can pull a ballot from either party so its an interesting place because not only are the democrats and revolt against the basis of both parties have an opportunity to vote and as one woman said in the focus groups i never vote for a candidate i have not danced with at least twice. Its a small state. 1. 3 Million People<\/a> drive the length and it makes for Great Television<\/a> because there are high snowbanks and around is to buy a l. L. Bean jacket and everyone from new york and washington looks like theyre on a camping trip. The optics or rate from a television standpoint. The end of the date it doesnt look like america but its clunky and moment go and force people like joe biden right now, former Vice President<\/a> to trudge through and put up with what he is going through right now. In a new poll today hes having a tough time. What does that mean . It means that the president , Vice President<\/a> , senators, governors who are famous have to come and do a bit of scraping with the locals and practice retail politics and somehow we believe that creates character and makes them a better candidate, at least that is the argument. The short answer out of all of that, i dont think the changes but i think the press is going to love covering New Hampshire<\/a> and part of it is tradition and the other piece is the humiliation factor and the strongest candidate are put through in a place where we have to stand in a snow bank and answer the 15 question about the International Monetary<\/a> fund patiently. Yeah, james, i was going to ask you. The criticisms of New Hampshire<\/a> are completely legit. I am about in the system as possible as someone who went to college in des moines because of the caucuses and i made my way to New Hampshire<\/a> and this is my seventh president ial primary and im about as biased as a person you could be on New Hampshire<\/a> and i can say that because you look at my bio but the criticisms are real and completely legit. They are not diverse estates but are largely rules states at a time when america is become increasingly urban and it frames the conversation around issues that may not be as relevant to most americans. Yes, we are affecting record high turnout in the democratic primary in february if that is when it is and thats about a quarter of a Million People<\/a> maybe 275 in california has got 40 Million People<\/a> so in terms of perspective it is or has an outside influence but criticisms are real. When we have this conversation what bothers me is we dont have you will hear me say a lot tonight but its as opposed to what . As opposed to what . That is what we should talk about it we can talk about in this criticisms but there are a couple days that matter but 1916 matters. Ill be quick. 1916 matters because out of the progressive era we decided these private clubs that are little parties we should open that up some more so we started having primary elections. It did not really matter that much and the three states started off the process and New Hampshire<\/a> was not first in 1916 but minnesota and indiana were first and moved it back but then you elected delegates and thats the whole point. You elected delegates and that changed in 1952 in the modern era with the primary when you did elect president s. Some candidates, not all, campaigns and another important date is 1968 in the Democratic Party<\/a> Democratic Party<\/a> may know in her history of the famous Chicago Convention<\/a> but lets remember what happened. In New Hampshire<\/a> lbj was reduced to just 60 of the vote and one but mccarthy got close to 40 and as a result two weeks later lbj said he would accept the nomination and will not pursue or accept but what happened in 1968 there are only 14 states that hold primaries that year. Think about that. Fourteen states and so we would trudge through and eventually bobby kaye got in the race and later on humphrey got in the race but the idea is the candidates who ran in these primaries were not the people who were nominated and was a very inside lecture it wanted so we can never have this again so as opposed to what . The Party Insiders<\/a> still decided and they decided humphrey would take over for they changed it again and said here is what we will do. Starting in 72 and ease into 76 we will create iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> and that the people decide now we have more states in every state is getting involved as opposed to what . Then we had the mythology and 76 and the creation of jimmy carter. The one person who is created the mythology that you could be this random person and peanut farmer from georgia and be elected president. Now we have today which here is where we are today witches New Hampshire<\/a> is still first. Iowa is still first but their clout has significantly diminished. They may remain first though we are not witnessing the most nationalized residential primary season that weve ever seen in this modern creation of the last 47 years of this latest iteration and consider the dnc qualifying rules for how you qualify for a debate. In the last debate there were 20 qualifying poles. Twelve were National Polls<\/a>. Which were completely irrelevant and they decided he wanted to have these polls count and the campaign does not take place in kansas so why are we take place in illinois and it could take place in texas. New hampshire may persist in the criticisms are real. I shared the criticisms and the skepticism of having two white states help pick our president s and as i covered campaigns but there are two things that suffered. Number one is after iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> give South Carolina<\/a> and nevada. Nevada has largest growing population of latino voters. That helps adjust the diversity issue but beyond that i grew up on the east coast of the delano with netflix and california where large states were campaigns were run on tv and going to iowa and hampshire and see barack obama or mitt romney or jeb bush this 20 feet away from you talking to voters and real people that you would never see that in california or other large states. It makes a candidate even if the candidates have the most money in the world makes them talk to voters but voters are smart and relish their duty of asking tough questions. They will get a softball here or there but its impressive to watch. I think it gives a chance for the candidates who arent as i wonder if the 2008 campaign with the Hillary Obama<\/a> competition in iowa if that had taken place in a state like a hornet with that have been possible and i dont think so because hillary was so well known and obama was able to meet voters generate excitement and then pulling off a surprise win that gave other people in the country that we have is nearly all white space willing to vote and i dont know if you could have that same outcome in a large state the big tv presence and these intimate events. Mike, do have something quick before we can move on . Is an arms race here. Quickly, i agree. If you take the first four iowa caucus, New Hampshire<\/a> primary, South Carolina<\/a> and combine them because that is that for is the lever on the process. It does become pretty diverse and get rural in new england and christian conservatives and even jello goals, representing the south in South Carolina<\/a> and parts of iowa and a huge and vitally important africanamerican votes in the South Carolina<\/a> primary so if you come them all together its regional and diversity and the other point would be the other way to do it is totally nationalized and the problem is the more famous you are the better you do. This system lets the smaller candidates have a shot with less resources and an entrepreneurial basis to try to crack the thing and get momentum. I disagree with james a little bit that i think they will be influential but what i agree with them on his its become nationalized but the stage upon which the National Context<\/a> is mostly played is the last 60 days which we are about to begin and then the turbulent eight days later New Hampshire<\/a> through the nevada caucus and South Carolina<\/a>. Its more of a hybrid and not as isolated as before but they are still the voters count 100 times more than any of us. Let me be clear but when we get to the voting there could be hugely the process for which we get there. And the qualifying for. There is no way you win these early states. I want to now turn from whether New Hampshire<\/a> is ideal or not because i dont think it will ever change and New Hampshire<\/a> and iowa are both arguably battleground states and the party that tries to take away the first caucus refers primary will do very badly in the general election so i dont think it will move. I wanted to handicap the New Hampshire<\/a> primary as of today. First about how much trouble biden is in. He fell into third place in the new cnn, unh poll at 15 . Beyond that is warns momentum likely to be sustained then is sanders position to repeat 2016 victory in New Hampshire<\/a> in 2020. James, do you want to start . Sanders one with 22 of the vote and 22 of the margin. There was the largest margin of victory since jfk. Its a huge and he started with such a head start. He has anna normas committee that was actively meeting every month to guinea and 2017. He started with such a head start. But a lot on that energy has now going to other people and clearly was either hillary or bernie. He still very much in the game and theres no question about it. I feel right now like this is a state that still despite the ups and downs is framed as a state of warren or Bernie Sanders<\/a> will win. If you look at history the new england candidate has won everything on time and they went all the time. Except for once. Teddy kennedy challenging the president in 1980 but theyve lost and that said iowa could likely have someone who has elevated and that person is not warren or sanders the person will be a major contender coming into the state. That is where things on the top level standard. Mike what has happened to biden . Biden started out by hacking conventional wisdom by being famous enough to have an early lead in National Polls<\/a> which are the weakest indicator and they give you basically a report on last weeks noise meter so because biden was famous that was his initial advantage and i would say if i was head of the drc form an Intelligent Service<\/a> i would drive media posters because those polls of the temple for money, conventional wisdom, press coverage and Everything Else<\/a> but once again back to the first question once you get to the smaller arena the mayor pete and the warrants can show up and start to sell tickets. Biden for all his strengths and still has some has the burden of being a frontrunner in the competitive markets where people know about slowly other candidates and he is not fearing as well. Mayor pete is emerged as the biden understudy and should he collapse if biden finishes third in iowa which i think is a possibly or maybe even fourth but if he does when hes supposed to be superman but if he cant lift up a locomotive not only is warren who may be the real biden a slayer in theres room for someone else who will be in New Hampshire<\/a> and the dynamic becomes printed really interesting. In New Hampshire<\/a> you have a big independent vote. We do not carry republicans when we cross george w. Bush. We were competitive but it was now not that close but we destroyed within defendants who crossed over semi New Hampshire<\/a> poll i look for the last week after iowa where i see volvos in the parking lot. [laughter] you suggested to me that mayor pete to boot a judge is not only surging in iowa but that he is he and why is that . This is a game of expectations. This narrative has taken a while to play out. The media starts covering places like iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> very early. Our Attention Spans<\/a> today are very different because of this and back in the days when we could instantaneously receive not only the news that we wanted to hear but we can also sort the news by which news we wish to believe. We filter the stuff as we need to get it. Expectation game gets dragged out over a long period of time. The race starts as bob and mike and james know that after the election in immediately who makes the first visit to iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> . That expectation game continues for a long period of time. Many people 17 people. Big crowd for someone who never been famous before. Thats a lot of people. They compared it to happen four years ago or three years ago and i dont want to play the game because New Hampshire<\/a> is a bit of an enigma. We like to think about someone who talks like the person i just spoke about but thats not really what New Hampshire<\/a> is most in southern New Hampshire<\/a> are people who work and live in massachusetts. Many of them commute to boston and come to New Hampshire<\/a> because they dont want to pay an income tax. And they read the globe. [laughter] the largest selling and New Hampshire<\/a>. The fact is its a different place in New Hampshire<\/a> is always the place that cherishes independence and the union leader and for years and years called the shots and hated democrats and loved republicans but set the rebellions they hated and they really hated them. That is change. The influence of newspapers as medium has changed but more importantly the influence of expectations doesnt which is why murphy and i sit around the fire and talk about this a lot. Iowa begets New Hampshire<\/a>. I use your exact language murphy but i worked the club. You can. New hampshire has one job which is basically to screw iowa after the Iowa Caucuses<\/a> bid they tend to set things right. First thing, iowa takes corn, New Hampshire<\/a> picks president s. This whole idea that they will have a caucus and we have a real election and people come out, a vote in secret ballots, not a caucus and we have to wrestle with somebody to get them to join your team but the expectation is coming out of iowa used to be free tickets. You tried to get free tickets out of iowa but New Hampshire<\/a> got down to two and maybe want to get out of South Carolina<\/a>. That has changed the conventional wisdom is it different. Does anyone think Bernie Sanders<\/a> is going anywhere in this race . To finish second, third . Does he become just famous enough after iowa that he is the narrative for the next iteration of the Republican Party<\/a> i have republicans on the mind, sorry about that. At the bottom line is democrats tend to like someone that tomorrow. Theyve always done that. The new frontier, passing the torch to the next generation. The last time the Democratic Party<\/a> nominated someone, that is simply that usually goes hand right now they may do it again with joe biden if he manages to be direct across the finish line. The expectation between iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> is very important that one last problem. Whoever wins in mostly iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> is going to run into them interesting cultural dynamic. Africanamerican voters are a problem for pete and another that might be a problem for his job. I think no matter what happens in New Hampshire<\/a> he can maybe go on. We can talk about pete, but Elizabeth Warren<\/a> only got a sentence here and yet she seems to be emerging. You see her on the trails she has a lot of energy but there is more and more showing up in time to get soltis and the organizations i think they really know what they are doing and there is a sense of excitement about the campaign both in iowa and New Hampshire<\/a>. One of the interesting things is 23 of people were committed to who they were choosing. That shows a lot of times people still need to make up their minds. He was hanging out with his Campaign Team<\/a> and there was so much energy and people were getting together and other campaigns in the states they say the one they hear coming up behind them is pete. I want to Say Something<\/a> quickly. The factor is that he was able to raise the money. In the second corner and again in the Third Quarter<\/a> he is spending that money if he has the largest team and the largest amount of office is in the hampshire. He has hundreds and hundreds of staff and is continuing to build up and that matters because in the last debate we would have argued buttigieg had a good debate and so did amy klobuchar. They have the candidates to capitalize on that. She tries to. It doesnt sound like a lot, but shes obviously not doing as well but she is doing better than a couple of weeks ago. Its money plus times if you get money late you cant build another organization. They are sometimes overrated but in the Iowa Caucuses<\/a> you have to be careful about these polls you have a complicated process where people show up on a cold night, speeches are given, its kind of an interesting way to do it and then there are people dropping outcomes of the social relationships between the people in the smaller counties become very important so organizational stuff the coordinators, my nephew is a good kid i get to see him, cory booker is the guy i call the middle of the night when their is a problem with my livestock. [inaudible] the other thing they didnt mention is joe biden and the fact that its amazing how little money he has. That number we will get to that in a minute, but i want to do first something that you either did to which is the relationship between iowa and New Hampshire<\/a>. My own experience in say 2004 was after john kerry won iowa, we agreed once we ran and he would mention the iowa exactly once. We had a great victory there, but New Hampshire<\/a> is the state that decided. He never mentioned the iowa again the rest of the time up until the primary but by contrast in 2008, barack obama landed in New Hampshire<\/a> and he talked about iowa endlessly. We won iowa and now if we win New Hampshire<\/a> we have the nomination. Suddenly, and i suppose hillary when she was asked that question how hard campaigning was contributed to it and suddenly obama lost the primary that he had a pretty big lead. You have to do well but dont you have to be careful when you get to New Hampshire<\/a> . Theres an awful lot of people in iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> that have pretty interesting jobs because they were there early and helped to at least propel the campaigns. The key more than anything else is the current race to look at that expectation. I think she will be the nominee of the Democratic Party<\/a> and i believe that. Im not sure that its the right thing for the Democratic Party<\/a> because one of the things you look at, democrats want to beat trump. That is one of the single biggest things i think in the polls today. Healthcare was number one, tied with foreignpolicy. Lets go back to expectations. Elizabeth warren is from massachusetts and is expected to win the New Hampshire<\/a> primary. Lyndon johnson asked you just talked about wanted the primary but not by much. Mccarthy wasnt supposed to do that while go off the plane in 2000 we had just come from iowa and he mentioned iowa more than a couple of times and it made my life miserable. We didnt even compete there because we knew we could take bush one place or time and we knew we would be to New Hampshire<\/a> because New Hampshire<\/a> doesnt hate iowa but they want to assert a certain supremacy. So, if you have to do well enough to kind of make it to the majors and then New Hampshire<\/a> if you do everything right there there is always a little extra special sauce lets get noticed here. I like the idea coming out of iowa second and then having the infrastructure waiting but i think if things go right, we are still early voting for just under 100 days to go. But if buttigieg or someone else can be that interesting, if they can be the third one to play the New Hampshire<\/a> card, that could be the surprise dynamic. Its best to win iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> which is seldom happened. If anyone has done that, obviously they went on to the nomination and that is unstoppable. Somebody gets elevated from the second tier which could have been. We talk about him being short of money and i will get back to somebody in a few minutes. Hes just as you mentioned a super pack to make up the difference. What is the likely reaction, going to hurt him or not going to matter . Spinnaker that is an inside pitch. Money and politics in places like New Hampshire<\/a>, ive run races many other places and ive always been about the notion that its always better to add more money than to be the candidate without it. I think the money message and media, the mothers milk of politics moneywise but i think more than anything else, what we have to really think about here is joe bidens ability to connect where you really want to see. If joe biden had this many people in the room, it would be a very bad story the next day because we are seeing a canadian at the comedy club. Anybody hear them start the National Anthem<\/a> what do you know its going to happen when they get to the bridge, they are never going to make it. It is an uncomfortable feeling when youre supporting the candidates were watching the process and they are good at this because they so miles away. Theres nothing wrong with that. I dont think they get much into it, but that is worse than where the money is coming from and the real question is the premise was up to the promise. On this primary in particular whether there may be some openness talking about the 1 and the loopholes. Those are always issue that democrats talk about. Its interesting because he has no choice. Weve been talking about iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> as another because that pays for the contact and Everything Else<\/a> you need. So, hes going to get beat up. I think it is going to draw some blood, but its a narrative of the old traditional politician. How much worse can it be for him coming and he desperately needs to be able to get in there and compete. Im the idiot that flew 100 blew 100 billion in direct like to know if they are trying to elect him in the republican primary in 2016, and all of the fun thing in the world cannot save you if you are not what they are looking for what was our problem with jeb come and bite of joe biden may not be. Super pack for independent so there is a technical limit to what they can do but i will tell you one thing that the super pack can do that will help them and could also help any klobuchar and buttigieg, he could take medicare for all which they are rightly divided on and you can look at some of the polling weve done here. You can take that issue and cut it in half which is a problem for Elizabeth Warren<\/a> and creates a category for others. I dont think he has a choice and its the right thing to do but he will get beat up for it. I think there will be ads that come from at least the challenges and debate stages like hillary released her speeches to wall street. Why are you taking all this money and you took money from so and so and those are the people creating problems in America Today<\/a> is what you are going to hear some of the opponents. You could hear it from Elizabeth Warren<\/a> and sanders but buttigieg is the one who speak to therethere is an argument oe Elizabeth Warren<\/a>. Shes running a Great Campaign<\/a> saying i dont take the rich money. When she was in the senate she took about 6. 5 only in and transferred it into a president ial committee, then got a white robe and decided no more of that money. If it gets a couple of rounds and we get the joe biden that knows how to counterpunch, i think that he could put her back on her heels on that one. We talked about this last night. I think shes going to have to make a hard pivot to compete if she is the nominee and my sense is one thing they hate worse than billionaires with money, donald trump and so to run the kind of fight they have to run to when in just a few states. I love that california has these we hate trump rallies and im not speaking as a trump enthusiast just how has it changed in the last primary. How the media covers it and the way the president behaves the way campaigns respond. Jeb bush is a tough politician, pretty good on his feet. And smart that was the problem. This was a mean election and thats what he wasnt ready for because that isnt the kind of politics is practiced. But its changed so much my question is when you call someone a millionaire or billionaire doesn does it realy matter that much because ultimately a lot of them are saying find someone who can get through a general election by soviet artillery was and take this guy out. There is some of that going on inside of the Democratic Party<\/a> right now. In the margin of error for now to one caution that i would have about joe biden is that there is a tendency to november before to decide whats going to happen. The New York Times<\/a> had a frontpage story that wasnt kind to me saying there was no chance john kerry was going to get beyond iowa, he was dead in november of 2003 and went on to win all but two of the contests so i think we have to see whether or not the joe biden was on 60 minutes shows up at the iowa Liberty Justice<\/a> dinner which used to be the chest Jefferson Jackson<\/a> dinner and now its called the guilt dinner. Before i turn this over to the audience, what about Kamala Harris<\/a>, cory booker and yang . Andrew young totally surprised me because when i first heard i was like this is insane then i went to the events and they love him. The question is if a Bernie Sanders<\/a> did situation or ron paul. He had all these kids coming up. Bernie sanders have all these kids coming up and they did vote and made it competitive. It was a really unique experience. It is a combination of former bernie backers, some trump backers. 5 obviously, but he has been interesting in the last campaign season. Kamala harris held a high point and then it was like a sugar high. That isnt the case why she isnt the favorite. Do you think that yang might be gone adventure as someone told me . Those are the three options. Maybe he will never have a moment. I have a buddy that talks about this and as you get closer it gets smaller and smaller. But hes got the infrastructure to take advantage of it but it really hasnt happened. Kamala harris, im not sure. Frankly at this point. But yang has been very much on fire and has significant cash on hand. They announced a figure that they just hired this week. If there is any one of the three, this is a person that has never run for office before. The best description of him was in a magazine profile saying you know that guy at the party that says if i were in charge , thats yang. You asked is he bernie or ron paul, ron paul got second in 2012. I do think that there is a future for yang. I dont know where it is going to go. Hes still at 0 . Keith sold me a hat that i war and now im getting 100 emails. I feel like the yang was kind of over a month ago at least nationally. But if you want to punish politics, your choice is really him or bernie. Weve seen it before he has a little jolt of energy now, but yang if you want to blow everything up, yang is kind of it. If youve ever seen him in the debate he does have some of the chops the other candidates that are used to being candidates but i think that he is interesting and iowa i think it is booker and Kamala Harris<\/a> is on her way out quickly. Booker is good but he hasnt turned again and hes running out of money as is any klobuchar who finally woke up and decided to be a candidate after being passive. But again she is somebody that coulcould give a lightning bolty not have the dollars to have what you need to. I dont write off either one and i tell you if they become the understudy, which i think is a longshot, but if they did, they could run New Hampshire<\/a> pretty well. They would both be attractive to the voters that would come flooding in, and i agree about the expectations. With that said, the elections were held today and i would bet a lot of money Elizabeth Warren<\/a> would be the democratic nominee to win New Hampshire<\/a>. Its interesting, its run by my former partner and they made the brilliant america ad for Bernie Sanders<\/a> and 26 teams are it will be interesting to see what they do with this multimillion dollar headline which i suspect will be concentrated in New Hampshire<\/a>. I want to turn this over and get people in the audience the chance to have questions. Someone has a microphone and if you raise your hand you can go first. Anybody have a question . Insult comi, comment. Anybody from New Hampshire<\/a> or iowa . New hampshire, right here. You get ten questions. [inaudible] [inaudible] you must be shaking. There is a lot of dynamism in the New Hampshire<\/a> and iowa vot votes. Ive been looking at South Carolina<\/a> and a lot of the voters there support joe biden because they think that hes the best to go up against donald trump. Now if say Elizabeth Warren<\/a> were to defeat him in iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> and when the nevada caucus, do you think there would be a pretty large section of africanamerican voters that would be more electable and support for . I do. There is a historical precedent which is 2008 when all of the voters all but hillary was the person once barack obama won the iowa. Its not a perfect analogy here but yes i absolutely agree. I think that its much the way we talked to try to correct that demographically there is a lot of obligation on the democratic side of things to correct some of the stuff. I think it was about warren is going to have to go a long way to prove she can connect with the africanamerican voters. While you are winning iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> and raising millions of dollars every single day youve also got to think about the sequencing of these contexts and its 12 dimensional everyday. My question is whether or not i dont know the answer to this yet but my suspicion is we talk a lot in the seminars about institutions. Americans have a lot of thoughts about institutions which is how we got trump. Africanamerican voters are very interesting in how they process all this. If we remember the Obama Coalition<\/a> it was a general election, not the primary. Those Elizabeth Warren<\/a> ring true with all of her plans and the two things we talked about last night that all she talked about. Thus she ring true to that, do they believe that someone from harvard who made the kind of money she made teaching a course whose a northeast elitist really someone that can speak to and hear their concerns . She plays well in the northeast and california. I think North Carolina<\/a> and South Carolina<\/a> is a problem for a bunch of swing states. This is a little bit under the radar but shes trying to make relationships with africanamericans particularly women and its not reflected in the polls but i think if joe biden does drop [inaudible] if he does stumble to the point where they have to look elsewhere, shes done some of the early work he has an equal problem in that segment. If you are winning do you get momentum i think democrats will be for democrats in the end. The thing i am obsessed with, i do a podcast with my friend, shameless plug their, and its interesting. If biden is damaged by iowa state second or third but not dead yet but in the day in New Hampshire<\/a> will barack obama send a little bit of a subtle signal his way because the obama connection is such gold with africanamericans that is part of the foundation of all the wie absence of the obama signal shes in trouble, not a full endorsement, but just something. Will that become a signal in itself. So that is going to be incredibly highstakes politics for joe biden and it could affect a little bit of how much of the glue remains. An example john edwards won the South Carolina<\/a> primary and john kerry won three versus four at that point. John edwards won that primary and one other contest because he had two home states, North Carolina<\/a> and South Carolina<\/a>. My point is it didnt stop after the nomination. Warren is going to have the resources to probably be competitive and the other organizational game but is heavily driven by the culinary unions and is also heavily latino, so there is a beat for South Carolina<\/a> immediately before they can be part of efficient if you come out of New Hampshire<\/a> with some steam. Do you think biden could survive doing a mediocre job in iowa and New Hampshire<\/a> and then hold onto his vote in South Carolina<\/a> and come back . I mean, Ronald Reagan<\/a> did this in 1976 when he was challenging gerald ford. He lost the early contest and came back and revive himself North Carolina<\/a> and almost won the nomination. The liberal moderate senator. And he had a ligh lightbulb e that galvanized many people are viewing it skeptically because you have other candidates with all this money if he doesnt win the first two states, the money that is already driving is going to drive it up forever and they might get a little bit skeptical of things are not going well. If he doesnt win the first two states, never say never, but it could become harder if he doesnt do well. Let me ask you a point. There is a strategy thats harder to ignore even against donald trump was about to face almost certainly pay certainly e could face impeachment on the house and what remains to be seen. But very likely impeached. And i think the problem is the democrats now have these things we talked about with elizabeth and joe biden and sort of splitting the rain. Pete buttigieg is coming up. Hes got money and the message and is progressive enough. My question is Kamala Harris<\/a> if she goes out sooner or later, amy klobuchar, two senators have a life ahead of them. Cory booker, how long does he hang in there . I dont know. What im trying to figure out is who else goes that has money, message and the ability to not let anything else get to that place they need to be . Keep in mind the senators will all be sitting in the jury box stuck in washington possibly in january or december. Theyve got to sit there setting their hair on fire trying to get attention. Someone else, right here. I heard recently although i havent heard lately that because of the 2016 campaign and the way that it was gone already getting the nomination, bernies team and Campaign Supporters<\/a> feel like now he should get it as expected because he felt he was robbed in 2016 and therefore a lot of people chose to have voted differently. I was wondering how you feel about that as significant from insignificant, not the problem; whats going on with that . They voted differently when they didnt vote at all or they just chose frankly they did a lot of road voting and they were so mad they just felt we got screwed over and, in talking about the general election. So now they feel like they are entitled, and im sure if hes not nominated that there could be a similar impact on who the voters before. I have a question which anybody can answer following up on. Who won the popular vote in the 2016 primaries, and by how much . And who won the contest in the 2016 primaries . You are wanting to add a fifth quarter to the Football Game<\/a> and it doesnt work that way. Im saying in 2016, bernie people think that the nomination was stolen. Who won the most popular vote and 2016 in the primary and not litigating, and who won the most contests . Hillary clinton did [inaudible] hillary did underperform in the midwestern cities with africanamericans. That cost her michigan you can argue and not as clear in pennsylvania. But theres not a big argument that bernie people stayed home. The voting theory is highly over rated maybe this is your point jill stein did get more votes in the margin of entry so that is part of what people were arguing. In 2016 they did get screwed and that comes up as much of the problem is there were other people to share in that view they came out today if he is the most likable democratic candidate. He is the most likable. I am reminded that comedian came in and stole this material and you get this feeling that he is sort of the guy that came up with it. Thats bernie. Hes the angry muppet guy and you kind of feel bad for him because frankly, he did write the set. This is him that stood up and said this is what we are going to be for you and im going to take the Democratic Party<\/a> to a different place. I get the feeling now that even though there is a strong bernies team, elizabeth is new and it is this sort of shiny new object bringing him started down the middle, and he clearly is starting to resent hes kind of screaming at everybody come hes just become larry david, literally. The question is how long does this where the democrats say i dont think he can win, and the other thing. I hear an awful lot of that from democrats. Democrats follow him along usually. They dont care about that. They want to be trump and im not sure they think bernie can do it. Again, we all look at these polls because the media report them because they dont have an election data report and one its harder and harder to pull anybody because nobody will take the phone call in a small universe the last ten days in the states that he won big, the one that we once voted for he had a heart attack and then he came back and showed a little life, so there could be a little sympathy for him going on right now. He had one of the more better weeks of his campaign. Thanks to a stand made by an evil pharmaceutical company, but that is another point. We are going to bring this to an end. I want to thank you and those of you that came out on a night where doug Decisive Game<\/a> of the world series is being played. I do want to say that when i said this could be on the same night as the world series, she said no, never going to happen. The dodgers will win in four. [laughter] with that, thank you very much and thank you to the panel. [applause] Supreme Court<\/a> justice speaks to students at george mason university. Justice kegan spoke about the legal system, her life and career and the polarization of the confirmation process for the Supreme Court<\/a> justices","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia903105.us.archive.org\/23\/items\/CSPAN2_20191119_014000_Campaign_2020_New_Hampshire_Primary_Preview\/CSPAN2_20191119_014000_Campaign_2020_New_Hampshire_Primary_Preview.thumbs\/CSPAN2_20191119_014000_Campaign_2020_New_Hampshire_Primary_Preview_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240716T12:35:10+00:00"}