Purchased. All right. Tonights guest speaker is chunging min lee author of the her met king. In this comprehensive study of north korea, he puts kim jong un in her spect i by tracing the rise of the ming dynasty and how the current leaders motivations, goals and choices have been shaped. Drawing on more than three decades of experience in asia affairs, lee a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and the International Institute of strategic studies shows how kims aggressive standoffs with world powers has put him at crossroads. The countrys increasing vulnerability to famine and crisis in the region. Now, please join me in giving dr. Lee a warm welcome. Ms. [applause] thank you very much. Its a real pleasure to be here, and i know that without my friends, i think, i would have had a very different audience. Its a real pleasure to be here at politics and prose. And i think the people who are most responsible for making me write this book, two of them are sitting in the audience. My very good friends bill and chip rogers. Now, the reason why i wrote this book and it came out on november 5th is i wanted to tell the north korean story to american audience. I think for most americans north korea is a major, i guess, you know, issue. The north Korean Leader is considered to be somewhat of a very different leader. Finish and President Trump, as you all know, has fallen in love with this guy. And you ask yourself how does donald trump manage to fall in love with kim jong un and then hoping that he will ultimately denuclearize. And i think studying this in the last 30 plus years and there were many people, many good ones who have written books on north korea, and i asked myself why should i write one more . Part of the reason is because as someone who was born in korea but having lived in ten countries and lived and studied in the u. S. For many years, i wanted to connect with a broader american audience. As i recall as i was sitting at bills house in the her of 2017 in the summer of 2017, that was when, as youll recall, there were missiles going back and forth, and trump was telling the world ive got a Bigger Nuclear button than kim jong un, and kim jong un said, you know, i will blow up the white house, and it just went on. So people were really scared, and i know that friends back in south korea, americans, were preparing for some type of an exit if there was a major crisis. And so it took me two years, since the summer of 2017, and, you know, as i said, the book was just published last week. So one of the key messages that i want to, i guess with, get from this book, and i guess there were a number of motivations for me. And the first is i wanted to describe not just kim jong un and the leadership, but to give American People a sense of what the regime was about. And you hear snippets on cnn or fox news, and you see this guy with the funny haircut, and hes got Nuclear Weapons. But its also a very important country. And yet most people, i guess, who are not really specialists dont know all that much about north korea. So i wanted to give a broader picture. And i think for me as a korean, and today being veterans day, as you all 38,000 americans died in the korean war. That broke out in 195053. And i remember an article in, saying imagine a 18, 19yearold guy from milwaukee, has never been out of the state, spends a couple weeks, several weeks training and is shipped off literally to this no mans land. And he lands in korea in the middle of the winter when its, like, really, really cold. And you ask yourself, what is this guy doing . He must have asked himself, you know, what the heck am i doing in this land where i am no recollection of even hearing about it . Is and yet nearly 40,000 americans died. And i think they died for a reason which was, in a nutshell, preserving liberty and democracy. And i guess light waite as those words may sound lightweight as those words may sound, i sincerely believe they did give their lives for a bigger cause. And one reason is among all the countries where American Forces actually spilled their blood after world war ii, i would argue that korea is the only one that has become a modern economy and a democracy and a thriving American Partner as the worlds 11th largest economy. So in a way, i guess im coming back full circle because my father, whos 93 years old, spent part of his years in the korean war, and then he brought back a number of korean officers to be trained here in the u. S. In the middle of the korean war. So i still have pictures of him as a young lieutenant and a leader at fort benning in georgia. And so my idea was, okay, how can i tell this story to both koreans back at home and in the north as well as to americans. So whats at take, why is korea so important, and why is north korea important . Well, first of all, because you dont want another bloody korean war. And thats something that i think the americans are trying very hard to prevent by having 28,000 American Forces in the rok. But north korea is not just with Nuclear Weapons, she has icbms, biochemical weapons, some relawned. Ed police relaunched ballistic missiles. It is the only country in the world, i would argue or, that has a comprehensive Department Store attitude towards military threats, everything from a to z, and thats what north korea has. So i wanted to show in the book that, yes, the roks worth preserving for these reasons. But second, i guess, goal that is at stake is regardless of how this whole thing comes out, i hope theyre looking at korea and this year in 2019, november, as you know, is the 30th anniversary of the downfall of the berlin wall. I remember working in 1990 at a think tank, and east germany was still around. Germany was not yet unified. And i ask myself, gosh, at what point will the two koreas be unified, if they do. And the big difference is german unification occurred when the soviets were on their knees. And if and when Korean Unification does come by, itll happen when the chinese are at the apex of their power. You have a very different geopolitical environment. Lastly, i think, the rok is in my humble opinion a very typical u. S. Ally. If you look at a map of asia, or eurasia for that matter, on the far end of asia with, on the asian continent, the only place where you have American Forces, boots on the ground, is in korea. And so you have 28,000 American Forces in south korea with an air force contingent and a very small naval footprint so that they serve not only to deter north korea, but over the longer term, i would argue, constraining the actions of the chinese. So going back to hermit king, i wanted to ask myself, okay, if i had to talk to someone who really doesnt know north korea, what are the three, four takeaways i would hike to, i guess, have on the audience . The first is to give the impression that kim jong un is not a baffoon. He comes around as a very different kind of character. He was born in 1983. And ever since he was born into the kim family, he was groomed to be either the next great leader or one of the key princes in the kim dynasty. And you have to really imagine how the psychology of this regime is. In 1948 when north korea was founded by his grandfather, kim ilsung, he was planted by the soviets. And then his song, kim jungil, became the great leader when kim ill sung died in 1994. And when kim jungil died in 2011, his son took over. But it wasnt really prepared that way because kim jungil had had three sons. Number one son came if his first wife. He had four wives. Finish he had a is second son whos the older brother of the north Korean Leader. Hes a guy that goes to eric clapton concerts all over the world. And then its kim jong name, and then he has a younger sister who you have seen in the news. So in korea bloodlines are really important. If youre born from another mother but have the same father, the mothers really compete for who will be the next great leader. And in this particular case, kim jong uns mother made sure although she also passed away that her son would be in the running. And in a way, life was made easier for her because the number one son who would also be assassinated by king jong up in kim jong un, he he came as a citizen. So he was caught at the airport carrying bundles of cash. So the japanese, you know, got this guy. And until then the number one son was considered to be the crown prince and the guy who would be the next king. Well, his chances were basically gone in tokyo. So as soon as he came back, kim jungil, as you can imagine, got totally livid, and from then on he lived in while knew china and in macao. So in a way, the leadership fell to kim jong uns lap. And so in 2008, his father had a massive stroke. And in north korea, of course, whenever something happens to the leader, nobody knows. And then intelligence picked up the fact that the guy was sick, but they werent sure how bad it was. That was when kim jungil decided my third sons going to be my successor. And at that time, he was in his mid 20s. So you can imagine even though you are groomed to be the successor, in north korea this is the most totalitarian state on earth, and you have 1. 2 million forces in the army, you also have the worlds most pervasive security apparatus, and still hes a kid. Regardless of the kim dynastys aura, how can you go to your generals and say you know general kim, im only 26, 7 years old but hey, you know what . Ive got all the goods, so please trust in me. Thats the problem that he had. But once he got into power over the last, you know, eight, nine years, kim jong un now feels very comfortable. But his catch 22 is very simple, in my humble opinion, and his dilemma is this he looks at the world, and he sees china, you know . The worlds second largest economy, his biggest patron is like the worlds most dynamic economy. Its arch enemy, south korea right across the border is a flourishing market economy and a vibrant democracy. His second arch enemy, japan, is the worlds Third Largest economy, and his real arch enemy is across the pacific. And all of his enemies are doing really well economically. So he wants to transform north korea, but how can you do that . Thats his dilemma x. The only way he can is to become the next china, by opening up north korea. The moment he opens it up, you bring in information, capital, money, technology, people begin to ask questions, and then his legitimacy begins to crumble. The moviey you have a body double who is a real life avatar. In north korea, since it this most highly monitored and surveilled city in the world, country any world, when youre three months old, for example, all children who are three months old are taken to state nurseries and then of course they come back later on, but even kindergarteners are told the marching songs. If you see north korean tv or propaganda, there if seven americans and if you kill five, how many are left . Thats the type of problems. If you give this type of loyalty to the regime, you arent you are thinking but one thing, you dont want to get caught talking bad about the leadership. In the book i describe the socalled Ten Commandments that every north korean must memorial rise by heart and the Ten Commandments saying anything you do must be because of the great, i guess, generosity of the great leader. So, when you see north korean prop beganda, one of the most disturbing ones i saw that it describe in the book was from national geographic, and there are hundreds of North Koreans in the big gymnasium and theyre sitting down and all have cataract operations but because in north korea the medical system hays tapered off its almost impossible to get good medical care. The front row you have a young lady in her 20s, and her doctor comes up, who is police with his assistant and attacked off the bandits from her head bandaid from her head and says open your eyes and this young woman sees for the very first time. In a normal family you would say, gosh, dad or mom, thank you, doctor whatever. And then the father basically holds his daughter and the next nanosecond the father says, oh, i praise the great leader for this gift. And theres a huge portrait of kim jong un with the two, the daughter and the father, going in front of the picture and they bow 90 degrees, with tears flowing down their cheeks and saying, oh, great leader, thank you so much, and everybody is like, clapping in unison. But of course, deep down inside she is a 23yearold girl with her own ambitions but can only say those things when she can connell confide either in her parents or siblings or closest friends. So in a way, although all North Koreans have avatars it this fact that i it is a different personality there are about 30,000 north korean defectors living in associating torque today from all walks of life. You think coming to freedom would be easier but its not because since youre used to a particular lifestyle for 2030 years until you defect, when they come to south korea they get training and then left in society. They simply cannot adjust to the tempo of modern life. Like getting a job. You have to apply for one. The party doesnt tell you, you will be a street cleaner, you will go to in north korea theyll tell you which school to go to and what youre going to major in and when you graduate, which job you get. So there isnt much of a personal individual, i guess, initiative in that sense. And so thats what i tried to show in the book. And one of the most i guess harrowing aspects of north korea and the book i give an example of the fact there are at least four gulags, and up to 200 know, york North Koreans are incarcerated in the jail. I look at the personality cult. When you think of a personality cult, you may think, hitler or stalin or maybe even lenin if you go back at more. But in north korea, be personality cult around the great leader, kim jong un and his family is knock like you if ever seen. You might have seen pick tours of kim jung un jung jung jung riding on a white horse. Ledge gem is that his mother was born in the mountain 1941, and then he was a cloudy day, suddenly when we was born, log cabin, like lincoln, the skies parted and this ray of sun just went right into this house, and he was born. In reality he was born in russia. And so everything about the great leader is all made up, so one of the Great Stories i saw what i think there are two golf courses in pyongyang, the capitol, and kim jongil, the late great leader got up and said i will play golf. So they went to the golf course, according to the official media, the first time he her got his hands on a golf club he had four holes in one. And he was so good that he told the clubmaster, lessons in how to play golf. So when kim jongun visits like this orphanage and in front of this orphanage is a big, i guess, banner with a big red star, and he red star where is the great leader stood, and theres an arrow that tells you where he went in the orphanage, and in one particular place theres a chair that is cased in a glass box because he sat in that chair. Im sure there are in people in this audience, gosh, if i could live like that, that would be a fun life but thats only for the very, very top. The vast majority of know, majority of North Koreans are doing much more poorly. One thing that wont happen in north korea that guess spied President Trumps prosubstance of kim jongun he will not give up Nuclear Weapons because they saw what happened to Saddam Hussein and gadhafi. They think if the had Nuclear Weapons they americans and nate to would never have attacked him. So with Nuclear Weapons you have security and youre able to then your enemies so why give. The up. In the en, though, like all states, for example in the killing fields in cambodia, where 1. 5, maybe more, cambodians were killed, many thought they they dirks in north korea you have a number of de facto markets. And the 1990s you ha a massive famine and up to 2 million north korea yaps died. So remarks still melted away. Know, North Koreans have to fend for themself and the millenials of north korea will change them from the bottom up. Why . All they theyve been indoctrinated they dont give a darn but the regime and the great leafedder and an ngo in south korea did a number of videos with defectors, including younger North Koreans and she said, when i first heard of kim jongun who will become our next leader, she thought that he was full of bleep. And that is the type of reaction you would not expect from your average north korean, right . You think how could you be so antiregime . And this is why i think over time, once more information seep in once more money flows in and the regime is unable to control every nuance of citizens things will have to change and thats my hope, but managing north korea is very crucial, because god forbid if there is another war, there would be millions of casualties in north and south korea and also involving perhaps the americans and the chinese. But maybe ill stop here. And take questions from the audience. There is a particular aspect you want me to elaborate, id be more than happy to. If you do not foresee there is an inclination toward a market economy or an evolution in that direction, what must be the forces that will sustain the status quo and in what way might an economy survive under those circumstances. Thats a great we. In north korea today, although its very difficult to get a clear sense, if you to chong ongoing, the capitol of north korea it is a modern city because it is the movedle city for north korea. And so what kim jongun wants is to make north korea rich without opening up north korea to foreign ideas. How many of you think do North Koreans think have cellphones . Actually, there are north korea, theres 25 million North Koreans and there are 7 to 9 million cellphone users. Honever they dont have wifi. They can only make domestic calls. Put north korean apps in the north korean app store, similar to apple, and they download the stuff and they exchange information, and to your point,