Longstanding interest as a commentator and analyst in iran. Im delighted to be joined by two of the people i think understand iran best in this country, and i will just move from my left, Maziar Bahari was my colleague as a newsweek reporter in iran. He worked for newsweek from 1998 until june 21, 2009, thousand nine, when he was arrested and imprisoned in tehran. You will know if youve read his wonderful memoir, then they came for me, what that imprisonment was like. If you havent read the book, you can go see the movie because it was made into a movie by jon stewart called rosewater if memory serves, was the name and the unmistakable calling card of his interrogator. In 2014 he started something that im sure its know youre too many people in this audience, certainly is a must read for anyone who wants to follow iran, and thats his website called iran wire which gathers information from iran, reporting, commentary, immensely valuable resource for all of us. And Suzanne Maloney who is Deputy Director of Foreign Policy programs here at brookings, who was for many years been a leading american analyst of iran. She wrote a monograph that was published by the institute of peace in 2008 called irans long reach. In august 2015 was a book, irans political economy since the revolution. She knows anything but iran and irans contact you know suzanne has played a very Important Role in thinking about it and sometimes helping nudge along behind the scenes conversations that have been important in the story of the runup to the jcpoa. We will see what suzanne wants to tell us about life since then. So just to introduce our subject and a couple of sentences, just over a month ago, november 15, a wave of protests of unusual intensity broke out in iran. The estimates of the people who had been killed as the regime try to crack down range from the most recent Amnesty International figure i believe is 304 killed. The highend is a u. S. Estimate of over a thousand. Well ask our panelists for the own thoughts about what the right estimate is, but its clear that many hundreds of people have been killed, that probably thousands have been injured and thousands have been arrested and imprisoned. This is a big statement by iranians of the unhappiness with the regime, and a tense and violent crackdown by the regime among its citizens. I want to begin by asking each of our panelists if they would just bring us uptodate, where do things stand now, december 18, more than a month after these protests began here maziar, why did you give us an impression from your sources of where things are now . Well, thank you very much, david, for such a nice introduction, and thank you everyone for coming here. Im glad that i ran rather than washington impeachment. Many iranians were complaining when the protests started that no one was paying attention to what was going on an event because people were preoccupied with the impeachments and the elections in the uk, you know, what happened with Eric Swalwell and, you know, im not going to tell you what happened. Most people know that. So what is happening right now in event is people are waiting for the 40 say after the killing started, which would be the boxing day 26th of december because iranians, she is in general they mourn their dead for 40 days after the persons death. So we are all waiting to see what will happen on the 26th of december. Many parents of those who were killed during the protests have asked the public to join them, morning for their loved ones. And it will be, we just have to see what, how the regime will react. The country is still in a state of shock because people knew that this regime was brutal because, you know, killings had happened before november 16, 17th. Many people witnessed killings right after the revolution then in 1988, during the 80s in general in general, and their regime treated the protest with brutality and early 2018 as well. But the level of violence, the killings and the brutality with which that they just murdered people, shooting protesters in the heart, shooting protesters in their heads, is just shocking to people. And as we speak they are finding new bodies. There are reports that they are finding different bodies from different lakes, dams, rivers across iran. Many of those bodies, you know, we had a report yesterday about this man, a kurdish activist who had a bullet in his head and his legs and his arms were broken. The family doesnt know who killed him, why did it happen. So the country is still in a state of shock and we are waiting to see what will happen on boxing day, 26 december. Of december. And just to follow that up, im curious about whether you get reports of continuing protests or whether we are now in a kind of low as we wait for the 40th day response, on a given day, a friday, whenever, people protesting or are they being more careful . People are more careful now because 40 years after the revolution, 41 years after the revolution, people have started to respect their lives much more than before. In the beginning of the revolution and even in the 80s, marred his own as a shia concept was found you. Not only for the people who supported the government and the revolutionaries but also people who oppose the government. Many people dont know that but suicide bombing may have started and i ran in the 80s. Many Opposition Group members, they basically killed themselves and different and moms at friday prayers and different leaders across iran in the 1980s through suicide bombing. So martyrdom was a concept that people want to die for a higher cause. But that changed especially after the iranianiraq war in 1980 and people started to respect life. People start to respect their existence here and because of that you didnt see that many people resorting to violence against the government because come first of all, they knew that this government is armed and is ready to use violence, but also they started to enjoy life much more than before. But now as weve seen in different cities, people are just desperate. There are reports that people are just dying of, you know, the revolutionary guards video unit, the released a video today showing the people in the city are saying that we are hungry, we dont have anything to eat, were just waiting to die. This is something thats happening in many cities and towns across our iran. So people are resorting to violence as well and people, many people are responding to the violence perpetrated by the regime through violence, whers in the past they tried to resist peacefully and nonviolently. Now, i think after the november protests, weve entered a new phase. People still dont know what this phase will be like, but its a new phase. The government has become more militant and more violent, and the people will resist more violently as well. So suzanne, how would you set the stage in terms of describing where we are right now . Then we will come back and look at how this started in midnovember, but whats your sense of where things are now . Well, i think maziar has given us a great overview of the landscape in iran today, but i think its also important to understand a bit of the context which is that iran has had a history of protests, of people willing to go to the streets, ready to go to the streets, often over Small Economic grievances or personalize economic grievances, labor strikes, teachers unions coming out, people protesting difficult in the financial situation when banks close, things like this happen all the time and iran and have for most of the past 40 years, even during the toughest times of the iraniraq war. There was still a a culture of political mobilization that existed in iran and it was within certain bounds you had to be careful. You might risk being arrested or beaten, and we have seen most would have been much larger protests, particularly over political issues as in 2009 when more than 1 Million People came to the streets of tehran over a period of days. The protest went on for weeks. The unrest and the cries of death to the dictator and allahu akbar bar from the rooftops were heard from the rooftops for monster people continue to mobilize and yet we not seeing the degree of violence ive used by protesters in the mess we are in terms of the government response to i think thats was so important to understand. Maziar talks about this being a different moment and iranian history. I think thats unequivocal to those of us who watch iran closely, that this is something unlike what we seen before and iran. During the 2009 a people which people which you are probably familiar with, it was a dramatic moment 2009 a people there was violence used against the people came to the street but it was typically thugs on motorcycles are trying to drive people off the street, trying to disrupt what were largely peaceful protests. The videos are coming out even in a small way while the internet was first set down, by the regime last month and then and a much more dramatic fashion since the internet has been restored, are like nothing i can imagine. In fact, it is far more similar to what we see him play out in iraq with the shia militias shooting from rooftops, having gunmen on the streets. Its absolute shocking and i think this is part of what were seeing now and iran is the sense of trying to make some sort of sense of both the violence that was used by protesters, the degree of anger, the frustration thats not about one person or about one faction of the iranian political system, but of a system as a whole. And then the readiness of the Security Forces to shoot to kill in a way that we havent seen in a mass basis in cities around the country. So lets turn to the question thats always been the history with social protests. Why did it happen when it did . And, maziar, just take us to that the question. Its november 15. We have an increase in gas. Well, you tell the story and then help us make sense of why that led to this extraordinary explosion. Sure. So on the night of friday, november 15, government of iran announced that is going to increase the price of gas. 50 for the 16 gallons thats allocated for cars, for most cars. There are different allocations, taxis and motorcycles, they have different allocations. But its usually 33p it was 33p for 16 gallons. Thats 16 gallons was increased, allocation was increased by 2 so it became about 49 cents, and then beyond that it was increased by 300 . So three times as much here almost a dollar. You may think that one dollar even is not much, you know, in this country its like, how much is a, three dollars per gallon . In the uk it is about five dollars. But in iran when you think about the average salary is about 250 a month, and many iranians are making a living by working gas couriers and cabdrivers, that 300 increase affects their lives. Again, we still know how is it going to affect the price if it is only one month after the price increase. But i think in order to understand the situation, the revolutionary guard, video unit, they did a documentary which was released i think yesterday and they talked to some people from a city where the majority, many killings happened people were killed by tanks and heavy machine guns. So lets watch the video and then i will provide some context for the video, which i heard about just about made one hour ago or so. Lets watch this video. [speaking persian]. [music]. [speaking persian ]. [speaking persian]. [speaking persian] his tv film units sing about 1015 years ago and becomes really active in the past few years. They had film units that make very expensive multimillion dollar animations, television series, as well as this kind of documentaries but what is interesting about this documentary i ported to a friend of mine called me about one hour ago from iran is that the person , the reporter that you see in this video , he is very close to the workforce and hes also someone whos been to syria many times and praise iranian involvement in syria. As a college the saviors of the hara. So according to this friend who is an astute irg seawater and media analyst, this video is part of the plan that they are jc tried to perpetrate that wanted to promote that iran needs a savior. Thats many governments, especially a rouhani government because of its inept and inefficient overseas have created such poverty, such bad Economic Conditions and ran needs a strong man in order to save it. Im sure weve heard in other countries before as well. And that person is no one but some civil money of course who is being portrayed like a saint in rgc media or part of the rgc media course, but what i think, what they are doing is going to backfire. Its going to be counterproductive. Because not only me but many iranians, when this guy is talkingabout authority , we dont think of authorities as governments and his cabinet, we are thinking about the Islamic Republic so the mediterraneans, this video is really a critique of 40 years banishment, 40 years of corruption that has led to this point. And we have many, iranians are masters of metaphor, there are so many beautiful metaphors that disguises each river hasa capacity. Each river, just overflowed and led to this mark. And people say that they can accept poverty, they can acceptunemployment , but cannot accept discrimination. And thats why many iranians believe that what happened in november is part of the universal protest that is happening in chile, in iraq, in hong kong. But Different Countries for their rights as citizens, they do not want the neglect to be elected, they want their rights as citizens of the country to berecognized. Suzanne, you pick up any goes in your reporting and discussions that would support this fascinating idea that the rgc is trying to get out ahead of your anger by saying you know, its the authorities who are to blame. The pickup similarnotes . I think this is part of a broader history in iran of the regime really effectively propagandizing to its own population. We spend a lot of time in washington thinking about irans export of the revolution around the region and in fact part and parcel of this system since 1979 as been a constant effort both to repress but also to persuade the population, to try to make the case for sustaining a system that fundamentally doesnt carry the same degree of support that it does today. Most of the iranian population is too young to remember the revolution, most of the population is now two young to remember the war. The first decade of the revolution so you have this set of circumstances in which the regime really needs to constantly refresh this sense of the revolutionary values, the islamic values a population have completely different cultural and political references and priorities. So they become quite effective at it. They got a massive revolutionary guard propaganda shop that produces blockbuster movies as well as the kind of art movies that you seek him out of iran and make it onto the festival circuit, but they i think ultimately the question is can they actually overcome this sense of deep alienation has been building, particularly among those iranians who, its a very well educated population. The system invested in a lot of infrastructure for the baby boom that it has now come of age but these people just dont have jobs and they dont the sea of future set up opportunities. That passionate man, im a University Graduate butim unemployed. Turn to the question of america and the Trump Administrations role in creating the Economic Conditions that exploded on november 15. And let me ask you to start. The Trump Administration since 2018 has had its campaign of maximum pressure and its been pretty devastating in terms of anything you can measure. Certainly iranian oilexports , sometimes listening to Trump Administration officials talk about these events, you hear the kind of undertone, this is just what we thought would happen. Just what we wanted to happen. This is a corrupt regime and the people facing hardship, what about that . Is this a made in usa economic crisis or is it something much deeper . I dont think its amade in usa crisis. I dont think iran was enjoying such a good Economic Situation before the maximum Pressure Campaign started. And also, the maximum Pressure Campaign is effective. Because of the corruption in the system. The cause of the rgcs presence in different sectors of the iranian economy, industry, culture, everything. Let me show that infographics about our agc. When you think of ragc and why it was created in the beginning of the revolution, it came from the idea that iran needed a revolutionary army in order to preserve the system. In order to fight to be loyal to the revolution. And ragc by the way does not havethe word iran in its name. Its Iranian Revolutionary guard corps though theres nothing about iran in the name but eventually ragc became this hegemony behind me. It has, im sorry. You go to the website, so you have Financial Institutions, you have universities area you have different industries. So ragc is really the biggest Industrial Institution in iran. It has many banks, it owns many factories. It owns many universities and hospitals. So when the us designates i rgc a foreign terrorist organization, that meant that millions of ordinary iranians were affected by that designation. So imagine youre working in a bank as an accountant, working in a university as a teacher or a janitor. I rgc takes over that university for or buys a majority share in the institution. All of a sudden you become a part of the ragc and you become a terrorist so because of that millions of iranians are affected by it. In terms of the importance of medicine in iran, one of the Main Financial institutions in iran that provides a credit to importers of medicine, its majority owned by the irgc, not directly but by different institutions so part of the bank was affected by that designation and its because of that it cannot import any medicine. It cannot get letters of credit for import of medicine. So because of this corruption in the system, because of this presence of irgc and the foundations that susan has written a lot about, in the iranian economy, in the iranian system this maximum Pressure Campaign has become really effective. Its not, its not the exact analogy but