Transcripts For CSPAN2 Lorien Pratt Link 20240713 : vimarsan

CSPAN2 Lorien Pratt Link July 13, 2024

And that something thats missing is we havent coming up from the technology instead of putting humans at the center of the equations. We work closely with doug. I like that he calls it intelligent augmentation because you can think of ai think upside down to the ia. When i interviewed all of these people, i found what i called for a while a decision architect what is a decision . Dot process that leads to an action. At that action in a complex world flows through and i dont know what to buy that scarf or car will do to the world. It will have impact, but honestly i dont feel very motivated because i cannot see that impact. It doesnt grab my primate brain in a way that makes me think i need to buy that hybrid car. I cant see it in the the data today in the ia stacked today isnt giving that to me. This is my dog. Im in training him to be a service dog and i have had him pretty much his whole life since he was 11 months old and i had this awesome thing happened to me. I have a trainer teaching me too train a service dog and she taught me about abc and its like my head exploded, thats what i heard from the humans ive been interviewing, the executives always talking about in a seated which is the context. We are in the kitchen and i say sit, behavior, sits, the consequences he gets a cookie, so this is it universal archetype, not just one way to think about how we may use aim data and i will tell you bit about how that fits in a number. Im pretty certain this is the way to think about it because as the lowest friction to how humans think. Lowest friction to how humans naturally think, busy people live in complex environments. They dont have much of brainpower to learn inference about the dollar to you or any. We have to me too them where they are at in the fact we are not has graded a cultural barrier between people at the head of governments, at the head of businesses and even me as i try to make decisions and use evidence and data and ai to make sure those decisions have a Ripple Effect that is good, so farmers im working with had to decide what crop to plant. Down the road they dont know if that crop will make production or well have been because that you are Migrant Workers made decide where to acquire a company or what price to change and as they talk that through you hear much of what my dog hears, a situation, a behavior we launch this product at this price and then consequence and for my dog its immediate, but for us at what makes us special is weak can think through long chains of consequences, but thats limited and we need computer help so again a decision is an imaginative process of her as we think through the actions in some context that will lead to some result. If you remember nothing else, remember this template and whats cool about decision intelligence which is what the book is about is because we start with humans i can teach you the i today that you can take home and use immediately so thats my promise if you stick with the talk. How do we make decisions today . Im sorry to say and i only recently learned of this, especially in a complex complex world, but going back to evolution we dont really think through the consequences of their decisions deeply. We are more likely not to think these rationally and instead use a social signaling. We look for someone who looks successful in our society, dominant or prestigious and safely copy the decision they have been making. Turns out thats effective. Its been hugely successful for the human race and thats what separates us from many other species. We are great copiers and cultural evolutions as we develop behavior through pattern that any individual cant understand, but the society like the unconscious process of genetic evolution we use cultural evolution to come up with these behaviors. This is what we are programmed for, to look at prestigious or dominant person and do what they do as opposed to thinking through the consequences and that was great for a few millennia, but the situation has changed. First of all, if there is a bad actor here or here and there they tell us what to do in their smart they can subvert our behaviors. Today can influence us to make decisions that benefit them, but not as if theyre smart about the situation. Second, the context is rapidly changing. We need to develop new ways of coping with this big ocean thats different than our pond because it keeps changing. Water flowing back and forth, new fish and the old ways of thinking through problems of a societal level are no longer working. These have complex system dynamics, nonlinear, feedback effects, winner take all patterns where Large Companies are large artists get 90 of the benefit in this massive inequality, action at a distance we have talked about and intangibles are important. Anyone thats worked with data, we tend to focus on the things we measure easily, money, price. We tended to overlook reputation, happiness, morale and yet ive never built a decision model that didnt have at least one feedback loop involved something intangible, a soft factor. We must talk to the sociologist, cultural evolutionist and all those other disciplines to understand the soft factors. Decision intelligence creates a roadmap for how to do that. The other thing i didnt say is the future is no longer like the past and is so the black swan is a problem when we assume the past in the future of the same and models are based on the past and we dont realize the situation has changed. Suddenly all the swansea used to be right now theres a black one what we do . I believe that ai and di im a decision intelligence, can solve the problem. I grew up in a time of technology optimism. We are sharing our codes and the internet was going to democratize reality. We were going to collaborate. Remember, steve . We had a dream and i dont think weve realized that dream. I think decision intelligence will help us go there. I think we created a number of links in the chain, collaboration, internet, social media and there is one more link we need to start to make a big difference to have a non linear impacts and thats di which we will talk about practically now. How do we do that i. We start with people. We dont say wheres the data. We dont say we cant do this ai without data. Im sorry, data is great but theres a huge amount of human dollars knowledge that is in no data set. We are good at knowing how our actions lead to outcomes and your homework is to go home and ask a friend that didnt come to the talk how they think about complex decision and i promise you they will talk about action, actions will lead to intermediate affect and ultimately outcomes and then they will talk about the context, so i sit down with a Diverse Group of experts in diversity of gray, old, young, gender, race and say what are the outcomes you are trying to achieve. I know so Many Companies that have projects who have never sat down and brainstormed through the outcome. I go and consoled and fairly senior levels and say what you trying to achieve and at the list of outcomes is different for each person. You dont need technology to get better. You just need to have a brain process where you think through what are the outcomes we are trying to achieve is a team. Is at higher revenue . Is it net revenue after two years . Is it some kind of military advantage . Military advantage that doesnt create a backlash they will hit his 10 years later in terms of the psychological reputation of our country. Order the outcomes we are trying to achieve . Make sure you ask that question. Brainstormed through the actions many folks dont take the time to have an open brainstorming session where they allow bad ideas and funny ideas or the actions we can take that may achieve those outcomes. Do that. Move all the blood to the creative side of your brain, because when the blood is on the analytical side of your brain you dont have room for the creative side, so separate those two and spend time being creative and then spent some time being analytical. These triangles here are where ai is and most decision models i believe as we democratize ai is the pattern this is how we will do it. When we talk about a decision on facing today. I saw greta on tv and she was so compelling. She said we have a Climate Crisis and the way resolve this is a simple, stop worrying about analysis. At the very least pay for centuries. Organizations are all over the world that will take your money and buy trees and of those trees will grow so there will be more biomass sequestering carbon and if enough people do this might to send leads through a chain of eminent to some outcome. If im going to use it ai to benefit me, i wanted this surreal, interactive, fun experience and so this is what i think is the future of ai. It will look like a videogame and i hope we can do some of this in the basement because we can do this in br and walk through these spaces. What are we doing these spaces . Experimenting with actions we might take and delighting the computer help us understand the chain of events that the system motion could lead to consummate, valuable at a personal level and highly valuable at an organizational level. Lets us see if this works. I have been having fun coding in unity. There is the for the future ball with no purpose whatsoever which just to show you theres a physics system running here. We are trying to make a decision as to how much money i will pay each year to sequester carbon. As i change the decision, this data is telling me about the future that puts in motion. I spend some money. I change my decision. It changes the number of trees i will purchase. Heres the biomass, the sequester and total atmospheric carbon so i can see the chain of events. Linda ritchie is the expert in the background who had done research and by the way theres barry hayes and me he may have done research in each expert has an opportunity to say how those actions connect to outcomes and here i cannot only change my decision, but also change whether sam is right and who i can trust because i can see that different people, different experts claim different things. Ultimately, i can click on their name and go to a site where i can see where they are making their case that their model for how buying trees leads to outcome can help us and that will be like wikipedia, a site curated that we can use to understand people. Sorry, to understand the situation. This sort of looks like a Business Intelligence dashboard like stuff we have been building for a long time. Let me tell you, its not. We are not looking at a dataset. We are looking at the future. We are only summarizing in the bar chart to understand and in the background depending on our choices we also have a physics engine generating the implications of those choices. I did a lot of investments, a lot of forests and then as i change my investment or use wendy linda ritchies arrogance i can tell my decisions interact with the situation as they characterize it in order to impact the outcomes i care about. This is a you know personal pattern, this example here is an example of something you do in your head 500 times a day and Large Organizations really struggle with understanding the impact of todays decisions tomorrow. I will give you a couple of examples. These are Machine Learning models. Little blue triangles and we may have built a machine to detect if the Computer System as a current intrusion happening right now. Thats a common Machine Learning model. Gives us a score, may be 20 , 20 , goes up to 95 is pretty sure theres an intrusion happening now. Yet another model that says heres the type of intrusion. Its got some spaghetti and it, but that spaghetti is mapping out people naturally think. I promise you if that spaghetti is how your thinking about things, its better to have it on paper then get keep it in your mind and explain it. We use invisible mechanisms today, word and text which is linear to communicate these decisions. We need a blueprint that is out architecture diagram for a computer learning system and then we have choices. I could send my computer might intrusion information to the police. It will flow through the cops and benefit and produce outcomes if i call the police every time it may be costly. You need to try to call the police only when its necessary. This is the decision model i built with farming experts as part of that big project i talked about, 23 phds and seven institutions and we are finishing the proposal this week. Cross your fingers we will win. It will be a natural for ai and arboriculture. If i didnt have to explain decision intelligence 21, i simply sat down with my diverse team of experts and said whats a typical farmer trying to achieve and a first they said they want to be profitable at the midyear and a sense we are brainstorming i said is that all and they said they wouldnt want to take any actions to put them out of business in a few years, so thats the second goal to balance. Then we talked about the actions that the farmers might take to make choices about how they spread their crops, spraying schedule, choice of crop and hybrid and cultivar. Of this gives us a map to understand how all the iot and it ai Machine Learning Technology Fits because there are some models that tell us out precision it will impact the yield and another model that says the amount of diseases are contaminants you may have based on strain and heres iot, sensors that farmers might have on the drone or somewhere in the field that they can use again with ai to interpret the sensor data to know is there a pathogen the starting and as Early Warning as possible to spray as little as possible in order to achieve our goal from cost and also longterm viability and climate and pollution point of view so its kind of spaghetti but i promise you have a spaghetti on paper is better than whats going on right now which is invisible and peoples head. Itch becomes an artifact and we talk about design thinking. We design a decision. A decision is something we can design. Thats pretty radical, but when we do it we realize we can bring all those engineering best practices through decisions. We can qa, continuously improving, it acts as a blueprint that connects endusers, my stakeholders built this. It next them the ai people so they know where they fit in and there was a wonderful moment because our team has been working together and mothers or before the diagram and i dont think anyone knew how the whole thing fit together and we were like we dont have to explain in words anymore, we have a map and know how it fits together and we know where the ai will fit in. Whats going on with decision intelligence . Those of you that know me, know its been quite the slog. Im flying all over the world trying to talk sometimes with three people in the audience trying to tell people the story. Im really happy to the extent this matters, gardner has decision intelligence on its ai cycle now and i consider that a big accomplishment. We are also ibm, google, he has trained a 20000 people in di shes the other big evangelist in this space. Shes awesome. Google her. A bunch of companies have started to identify as di companies, or tech is a water company. These guys are a chart, curriculum labs, medical devices, all people who recognize that if they go beyond the building and Machine Learning model and in that it into a decision model that sort of surrounding of the Machine Learning model and connects from action struck him that it will help them be more successful so its cool. I love we are starting to get notes. This is how kathy defines a di, discipline of turning information into better action at any scale. Slightly different to way of saying it, but essentially the same thing. I say di answers the question, if i make this decision today which leads to this action would be the outcome tomorrow. Lots of people have different approaches to di, that my decision diagram is mine. Other people of other approaches some people dont even come from text. They are sociologists, economists and more. What is common to us is we have taken seriously the action to outcome path as the core way, technology and science and are asked. We also made it to hollywood. Knows what show this is . What is it . Its the good place. This is ted dancing. I wont give a spoiler. If you have not seen season three this is episode 10 and im recommend you take a look at it. Hes basically discovered di by the end of the series. Its the mystery which is cool and what does ted have . Who knows who this is . That janet. Is she human . No, shes a ai. Here is ted tried to understand why there are all these negative unintended consequences and here is janet helping him. How cool is that . I hope they read my book. I hope they call me. That would be fun to keep the scene that going because its so important in the future. With great power comes great responsibility. You have the ability to take action as an individual and as organization that have a giant impacts. Im an optimist. I believe we are in the beginning of a solution renaissance where its not just ai, but all of these technologies will come together under a common blueprint, system dynamic, complexity, complementation neuroscience, all of these fields, minimally many traditionally viewed as soft field in their little silo, i think we are entering the age of synthesis and those of you who are doj and a list know what, i mean,. We are the experts who focus on the outside of these boxes. Doesnt matter if we know that math, we know what goes into it what comes out of it and restart to know using i think some of the version how to cool it together to crystallize solutions where we understand a solution to water impacts poverty. A solution to poverty impacts the status of women. Those impacts hit all of us. They hit government. They hit democracy. They had to companies. We call these the Sustainable Development goal. I think they are all the same problem. I dont think we can solve them separately and i think the only way we can solve them is to have a new approach to understanding how actions bounce around through the whole world and ultimately lead to the best outcomes. Thank you. [applause]. Do have a chair transporter . Thank you. You actually finished under the time. One question i had is the of the case study or story to tell us that shows how this works in practice . Well, i think that example i showed with the farming is a good one. We have also build an additional model for government decision regarding reducing conflict in the subsaharan african country where the model showed a net was a pulmonary study, but it showed you need to take action in two places at once. You had to do work with the rule of law tree and also had to stipulate the police, but other things didnt have to happen. If you did those two things i was not forced to take the vicious cycle of conflict to a virtuous cycl

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