Pratt. Why is it good intentioned people who try to solve great problems often make decisions that have terrible outcomes . We said we were going to change the world. Did we . Probably a bit and probably for the better. But i think at the same time some physicians have led us to better consequences as georgia said, we live in a fragile world today and it is a class of complex difficult situations that we as a society have yet to figure out. On a personal level i make decisions every day. I bought this car got this car. Its a hybrid that but i tell i have no idea if the co2 i get for my 70 miles per 70 miles per gallon and the commercial impact of the battery after it gets stored and maybe we would have explored new technologies that have less of an impact. This is my mom. I bought a scarf couple of years ago at christmas. If i bought that scarf 100 or so ago, fine, no problem. Today, i dont know if it was made in a sweatshop using costbenefit pesticides grown and there are huge amounts of co2 as it traveled from a long way away to the place where i bought it. My choices have actions and i have no ideas what those impacts will be. You have a new superpower. The choices you make have a Ripple Effect through the world. I like to think of it as a fish in a pond and everything is going okay for a few years. Connecting it to the ocean and mike is, they swim upstream and downstream into the environment is fundamentally different. I think we are in that situation today as a society. Things are changing radically. That is what this is about. Its about the actions that we take and the decisions we make as we consider those actions and the path through which those actions become reality. How can we be responsible with outcomes if they are visible, if we cant see the outcomes and if the fish are no longer in a small pond we simply didnt evolve the situation. Im lucky i went through the computer resolution and when i was a kid, these were big things nobody could accuse hi and my mm didnt know the difference between software and hardware. I have to explain it to her. We have gone through a democratization of computing technology. We are in the same thing today with ai and data and new technology. Ai is done to us, bu that we dot have control over it. The data is overwhelming at the distance and at best we get the data visualization, but i have had the honor of interviewing hundreds of people as a technology and asking them what are you frustrated about if it solves one problem for you, what would it be and over and over again i heard a similar answer and it looked sort of like this. This is why im pretty sure i know what im doing. Just a background, ive been building Machine Learning applied systems a really long time, over 30 years. I built 100 million over government budgets and Machine Learning novels mostly supervised learning. Who would have known it would still be with us so many years later. There is something missing all of these years into something that is missing is we have been coming up from the technology instead of putting humans at the center of the equation i am honored to be here. I like that she called it intelligence. Its putting humans at the center of the equation again. I found a position archetype to. Its an action and thought process that in a complex way moves through some stuff and i dont know what buying that scarf or that car is going to do to the world. Its going to have an impact but i dont feel very motivated because i cant see the impact. It doesnt grab my brain in a way that makes me think i really need to buy a hybrid car. I cant see it and the data today isnt getting back to me. Im training him to be a service dog and ive had him pretty much his whole life, hes about 11 months old and i had this thing happened to me a trainer teaching me who taught me about antecedent behavior and i think my head exploded. That is exactly what i heard from the humansinterviewing. They are always talking about the antecedent. He sits down and the consequence, he gets a cookie so this is a universal archetypes. It isnt just one way to think about how we might use the data and i will tell you about how that comes in at the moment. Im pretty certain this is the way to think about it because it has the lowest friction to how humans think. Busy people live in complex environments. They dont have much brain power to learn the optimization or inference. Its created a giant cultural barrier between people that have governments at the head of businesses and even the. They have to decide what to plant down the road they dont know if it will make them productive or whats going to happen because they have fewer Migrant Workers and the situation has changed. This is newsnight ask what product to launch and as they talk back through you will hear much of what my dog hears. For the launching of consequence that is limited and we need computer help. So again, the decision is an imaginative process in our head as we think through the actions and in some contexts that would lead to some result. If you remember nothing else, remember this template and what is clear about the decision intelligence which is what the book is about, its because they start with humans, i can teach you this today, you can take him immediately so that is my promise if you stick with the talk. How do we make the decisions today . I am sorry to say i had a sense that this was happening and especially in this complex world going back in the media from human evolution, we dont really think through the consequences of our decisions very deeply. We are much more likely not to think through these rationally, and instead to use social signaling and look at someone that looks successful and is dominant or prestigious and simply copy the decisionmaking. It turns out that its very effective and it has been hugely successful and that is what separates us from many other species that we develop behaviors and patterns any individual cannot understand that society this is what we are programmed for some prestigious person to do what they do as opposed to thinking through the consequences and that was great for a few but the situation has changed. If there is a bad actor and they tell us things they can subvert our behaviors. It is rapidly changing. We need to be developing new ways of coping with an ocean that is admittedly different because it keeps changing. The water flowing back and forth and the old ways of thinking through problems at the societal level are no longer working. These are complex dynamics we see when they call winner take all. They get the benefit and the massive inequality. We talked about the intangibles are important imported, too. Anybody that worked with data we tend to focus on the things we can measure easily. Money, size, price. We tend to overlook their reputations, happiness, or how and if i had a decision that didnt have at least one feedback loop that involved something intangible, a soft factor. We must Start Talking to the sociologist, the cultural revolution is and all the other disciplines to understand. The decision intelligence creates a roadmap of how to do that. The future is no longer like the path. They are based on the past and we dont realize the situations changed, some used to be black with white. I believe it can solve this problem. We are going to collaborate. We have a dream and i dont think we have realized that dream. We will talk about it a little practically right now. How do we do this . We start with people. We dont say where is the data. We dont say we cant do this without the data. Im sorry, the data is great, but theres a huge amount of Human Knowledge that is in no data set whatsoever. We are good about coming out the actions lead to outcomes. Your homework is to go home and ask a friend who didnt come to talk to david about a complex decision they will talk about action and those will lead to intermediate effects and some outcomes and then we will talk about the context. So, what i do is i sit down with a Diverse Group of experts, young, old, gender and i say what are the outcomes you are trying to achieve . So many have never sat down and stormed through the outcomes. Icons faulted senior levels with organizations and the outcomes are different and each person. Let me tell you you dont need the technology to get better. You just need a brainstorm process where you think through the outcomes we are trying to achieve as a team. Is it higher revenue, net revenue after two years, is it some kind of a military advantage . A military advantage that doesnt create a backlash that will hit us ten years later in terms of the psychological reputation of the country. What are the outcomes we are trying to achieve. Make sure to ask that question. Second, brainstorm through the action. Many folks dont take the time to have an open brainstorm session where they allow bad ideas for the actions we could take that might abuse those outcomes. Do that to the creative side because when you block this site of your brain which i guess is over here, you dont have room for the creative side. So, separate them. Spend some time on the creative and sometime on the analytical. These triangles here are where a guy gets a if most decision models i believe as a democratized ai, this is the pattern. This is how we will do it. Let me talk about a decision that i am facing today. She was so compelling and said we have a climate crisis. Its simple, stop working about an hour this and at the very least pay for some trees. Theres organizations all over the world. That will sequester some carbon. She said it would make a big difference. I havent sent any money to h. E. Organization yet. I cant visualize how the money i might send leads to a chain of events. If im going to use ai to benefit me, i want a visceral interactive fun experience and so this is what i think is the future is going to look like a videogame and i hope that we can do some of this in the basement because we can do this. We expanded them to the actions they might take and we are letting the computer help us understand the chain of events that can lead to the consequences. Its also highly valuable at an organizational level. Lets see if this works. Ive been having a lot of fun on this. Theres an institute for the future that has no purpose whatsoever except to show you there is a physics engine running. Whats going on, we are trying to make a decision how much money i am going to pay each year to sequester carbon. As i changed the decision, the data is telling me about the future that puts in motion. I spent some money, i change my decision, it changecommand chane number of trees i will purchase, here is the biomass into the carbon sequestered years the total atmospheric carbon so i can change the events. Remember the expert in the background done some research and by the way each expert has an opportunity to say how they connect to the outcomes. I can not only change my decisions but also who i can trust because i can see different people and experts claim different things. Ultimately i can also click on their name and see the case for how it can help us and that is going to be like the site that s curated that we can use to understand people, sorry, to understand the situation. This looks like a Business Intelligence dashboard and like stuff weve been building a long time. Let me tell you, its not. We are not looking at the data set. We are looking at the future. In the background depending on the choices we have an engine generating the implications. There is a lot going on and as i change my investment i can see how my decisions interact in order to infect the outcomes they care about. This is a universal pattern. This example is an example of something you do in your head 500 times a day into the organizations struggle with understanding the impact of todays decision tomorrow. Survival give you a couple of examples. These are the Machine Learning models here and we might have built a Machine Learning model that detects whether it has a permanent happening right now. It is pretty widespread. Whether it is an attack or something else. And this picture is typical of many decision model situations. Its got to this, but that is not laughing ho stopping how pee naturally think. The common view is how you are thinking about things. We are using the mechanisms today to communicate the decisions and it ends up being an architecture diagram for the Machine Learning system that shows how it fits in and then we have some choices. I can share it with the police did investigate the intrusion and impact the outcomes. If i called the police every time it might be costly. We need to call only when it is necessary. This is a decision of all i will put a bunch of experts as a part of that big project i talked about that has 23 phds and institutions finishing up the proposal would be the National Center for excellence and agriculture. Whats important about this as i diis ididnt have to explain the decision intelligence to anybody. I simply sat down with my team of experts and said what is a typical farmer trying to achieve and if they want to be profitable at the end of the year and since then, i said is that all and they said they dont want to take any action that is going to put them out of business in a few years so that is the second goal that they need to balance against that and then we talked about the actions and they make choices about how they sprayed their crops and the schedules. This gives us a map to understand how the Technology Fits together because theres a couple that tell us how the positions will impact the yield and theres anothe there is anot says that type are contaminants. But from the cost and also longterm viability and the climate and pollution point of view. I promise you having this on paper is a lot better than whats going on right now, which is this invisible in peoples head. It is an artifact and we talk about the design thinking. We design a decision. A decision is something we can design. Do fine. That is pretty radical. But when we do it, we realize we can bring all of those engineering best practices to the decisions. We can continuously improve it. It acts as a blueprint to connect. This is their mental model but it connects them down so they know where they fit in. Weve been working together before this diagram and i dont think anybody knew how the whole thing fits together. You dont have to explain it in words anymore. Weve got a map. We know how it fits together and where it will go in. Whats going on in this intelligence those of us that have known me a few years know its been quite the flying around the world trying to talk sometimes three people in the audience. Im really happy to the extent this matters there is intelligence on the cycle now and i consider that a big accomplishment. Also theres 20,000 people and she is the other big evangelist in the space. And then theres a bunch of companies. A and then in the decision model surrounding them into it connects actions to outcomes. So its really cool. She said is the discipline of turning information into bitter action. We have a slightly different way of saying it but its essentially the same thing. It answers the question if i make this decision today which leads to this action, what will be the outcome tomorrow . A lot of people have different approaches to this. My causal decision diagram is mine. Other people have other approaches. Some are sociologists, economists and more. What is common to all of us as weve taken seriously the action to outcomes. I recommend you take a look at this he i piece basically discod that by the end of the series. Who knows who this is, thats janet. Here he is trying to understand why there are all these negative unintended consequences and here is janet who is helping him. I dont know if they read my book. I hope they call me. It would be fun to keep this going because it is important to the future. With great power comes great responsibility. You have the ability to take action as an individual and as an organization that has a giant impact. I am an optimist. I believe in the solutions renaissance where it isnt just ai under a blueprint of the cultural revolution, all of these fields many of them traditionally soft fields. They are deemed specialists. I think we are entering the age of synthesis and those of you that are generalists know what i mean by this. We are the experts that focus on the outside. It doesnt matter we know what goes into it and what comes out of it and we start to know how to glue that together to crystallize solutions so we understand the solution to water impacts poverty and they hit all of us, democracy, government, companies. We call these the Sustainable Development goals and i think they are all the same problem i cant fault them separately and the only way we can solve them is to have a new approach to understanding how actions bounce around to the whole world and ultimately lead to the best outcome. Thank you. [applause] do we have a chair transporter backs to the im shocked you finished under the time. The question i have is do you have a case study or story to tell that shows how this works in practice . The example i showed is a good on one if we build an initl model for the government decision regarding reducing complex subsaharan african countries and it was a preliminary study that showed we need to take actions in two places at once. I would say the causal changes four to five weeks long. But it was just an initial preliminary study. How long did it take . A few months to get it done because i spent a lot of time interviewing experts. I wonder how much you feel this could be because they think in metaphors and in terms of how these things are like other things and whether you can actually imagine it being defended that way. To understand they have been in one place and bought another one of them is the pattern from the action in the shortterm and longterm in the horizon that would throw us back. I see that everywhere. If they put vending machines in kids schools, he think it makess happy but down the road it isnt such a good thing. [inaudible] we have the ceo of empire. [inaudible] i have a background in Climate Science right now and it is an interesting time when everybody is kind of weighing in on climate change. I find it interesting because you have a lot of people want to speak to these links. They dont realize they are naively putting in the links. What hell be able to not have to teach the science that demonstrate the complexity as a way for them to start to appreciate . If you like they are not seeing the complexity, and to just be able to show it and make this tool to influence peoples thinking without them having to painfully go through it. I will use a metaphor to answer the question. I can drive a ferrari without seeing what is under the hood that certain people are impressed and you open th you od see all the complexities. Some of us dont want to hear about all th