Host good evening i am one of the founders to politics and prose. We have cspan here so we have moved, is like working back there pretty somebody is running towards microphone. We have just one microphone read to ask question so, if you need access to this mike, or microphone, you can go around back there. I would welcome davi david quam, is come this evening to talk about his new book the spillover. It is the first time he has been here and hes in montana so i think that is why he has had written many books. Including some of the dodo which won a medal. Natural history writing. He has honorary degrees in Colorado College and Montana State university where he served as a professor of western american study read hes also won the National Magazine award three times for articles in a wide variety of magazines including esquire, literally stone stone. In the third of these awards, magazine wars, was for a National Geographic called was darwin wrong. National geographic map, he has a title contributing writer at the capital letters, which gives him and requires him to write you say three articles a year . Three articles a rear for National Geographic. He describes his field of biology and evolutionary biology, theoretical ecology and conservations. But after this evening, hope you will have as much appreciation for his physical strength and stamina you have for his writing talents. In this field, research, he tracks Indiana Jones style through jungles and rain forests. And that most of us would never want to step foot in. Tonight you will learn a new word. Stenosis. At least i learned that new word. Did gnosis, their Infectious Diseases that originate in animals and spread to humans. For those of you have read the hot zone, that was i cant believe it about 20 years ago, 18 to be exact, you had a very early to this frightening scenario. And david has elaborated on a great deal in his new book, spillover. Publishers weekly gave spillover a start reviewed said that this is a frightening, critically important book for anyone interested in learning about the prospect of the worlds next major pandemic. So he is here to talk about his book. [applause]. David thank you very much barbara. And think youll. It is nice to be here at politics and frustrated and as barbara said, im not been here before. I live a little bit too far away. Dont publish books that often. It takes me about six or eight years to get one of these things done. Im going to talk informally for 20 25 minutes. So as you said would be best barbara. Yes, about the book and that the subject and to some extent about the writing of the book and then you you know this better than i do im sure, and then we will hear from you. Lucas and conversation going. As barbara explained, this is a book about scary new emerging diseases or the emerged from. And when they emerge from, generally this wild life. From other species, nonhuman animals. In particular, nonhuman animals other than our domesticated animals. If you have been following certain stories in the news over the last few months, you know that one point of entry into this subject is the daily newspaper itself, youve probably heard about a virus that killed three people that visited yosemite the summer. It people have been dying in north texas west nile fever. It may in the dallas alone there have been 50 people who died of west nile fever. Just since july. There is been an ebola bright outbreak again in Central Africa in the democratic republic of congo, and as an Ebola Outbreak that is killed three dozen people i think went out and it is still going on. There was another Ebola Outbreak across the border in uganda unrelated to the spillover because the outbreak in the democratic republican congo, that was has been there. These things are happening. This like a drumbeat of disease outbreaks in small crises. There is nothing in the peninsula, a virus that emerged that closely resembles the sars virus in boston the same virus, coronavirus is the same virus that really scares this disease experts back in 2003. This new sars like virus out of the Arabian Peninsula is only killed one person, put another man in the hospital in britain. In the cytosol of the world are watching it carefully. When watching it carefully. It is no the next big one could look Something Like that. So as i say, nurses drumbeat of these things. This diseases that i mentioned, all have two things in common. They all come out of wildlife they emerge from non human animals and logos that i mentioned, not caused by viruses this a particular profile of the scariest of the exemplary phenomenon. The scientists have a fancy name for it as barbara mentioned, the coal these animal infections the past and humans zone aussies, its a virus or it can be other forms of infectious book, it can be a bacteria give it a creature the causes malaria, qb fungus, giving worms, they could be something called priya, which causes mad cow disease. In another syndrome. Usually its a virus. Viruses more than anything. It has from animals into humans but they will always cause disease. Sometimes to become harness passengers and humans. Theres a virus that is talked about in the book and i cannot resist it because has such a wonderfully recent payment have to find right side of the subject. Where you can find it. And with all due respect to the people who suffered and died, there are a lot of deaths this book pretty strictly nonfiction. A lot of debts i respect that. But still, i do not want this book to be just a painful gruesome duty. Just an important story book. I also wanted to be a pleasurable reading experience, a page turner, moments of suspense. Have mystery in discovery. Moments of heroism by these scientists were studying the sort of thing. Yes, even some moments of humor is a very funny book. But i hope it might be that funny spoke about a bullet that you have read. [laughter]. Is a symptom, some of these folks, when passing humans, harmless. But often they are not. If they passes any humans, 60 percent of Infectious Diseases of humans, or zoonotic diseases manner 40 percent, everything comes from summer break better 40 percent are probably zoonotic origin in the broader sense. For instance measles, only a disease of humans. But it come from, probably came from a virus that causes the disease and hoofed animals in africa. It is been humans long enough that his and civil become adapted specifically to humans. So is different enough that a student centered and functions as a uniquely human virus. The 60 percent that are considered zoonotic a passing back and forth are passing from animals to humans under a continuing basis of than that very recently. That includes things like ebola, marburg, all of the influence us, west nile virus hiv. I think at some length in the book about the ecological origins of the aids pandemic and we now know that the pandemic strain of hiv passed from a single chimpanzee to single human fairly small corner of southeastern camarillo and Central Africa. In 1908 earlier, give or take, i know that because there are some wonderful scientists who have worked on the genetics. On the viruses that are precursors toys uv, and viruses there in terms of monkeys in the genetics of diversity of hiv one ruben which is that Pandemic Group of hiv. In these scientists have managed to locate the spillover event with a high degree of confiden confidence, theres oysters and provisionally in science that they have located it to southeastern cameron, one chimpanzee, one human, presumably one human who killed the campaign and then cut himself on the hand and while he was butchering the jumper food and cut his hand and in the very early part of the earliest are around 1908. Michael and beatrice on the scientists with their colleagues of the network. So the diseases, they spillover, or zoonotic, whether slightly technical term but i want to familiarize you with them a reservoir, reverend reservoir host is the kind of animal in which the bunker virus or whatever it is, lives permanently inconspicuously without causing disease. Without causing mayhem in that particular creature. One is a live there. What is it live there nondestructively. Probably because business species for millions of years. So virus and is reservoir host, replicate but it does not rip locate canvas medically. It replicates slowly does not generally cause symptoms. Its invisible. It hides in the reservoir post then something happens, humans kill and eat that post or they come in contact with it somehow. Leslie a couple of ways this can happen. The reservoir host sheds the virus then he gets into humans and then it becomes a zoonotic disease. One of the things that the scientist to as they study this field and they focus on these different diseases, one of the very first things that they have to do is identify the reservoir post. And new disease bills over in malaysia, is killing pigs. That is killing pigs farmers and then peg butchering them park sellers printed part of the come from. They isolate a virus. Human victims, and in the face. Same virus in the human and in the pics. This is a true case pretty happen in 1998. They named it nika virus after a particular village and malaysia and then went looking for the reservoir post. Was it. They found it in large fruit batches. The kind that are called flying foxes in asia. How did this pullover occur. The disease detectives finally tracked it through the relevant most likely spillover and heres what happened. People were cutting down forests, and peninsula malaysia, for development and for agriculture, the timber itself going down the forest, destroyed fruit habitats and they were the fruit bats were displaced and they were looking food connectors morosely started going closer to human settlements. If the orchard were attracted, fruit trees planted by humans. In some of the moron pig farm some of the second stream of income for the performers who ran these great big actors guild reforms in northern and Central Peninsula malaysia. Some of these farmers even planted make countries and another conference recall the water apple. Very close to zero but are excised and in some cases even cheating excised. So that the bats came to the fruit trees, the throat may choose mango, into the water apple and drop the pulp into the pigsty they brought their feces in the drop in urine on the proper virus and pigsty, the pics pick it up, pigs get sick and its a very infectious respiratory disease, pigs are coughing and barking and passing this virus from one to the other. Pigs are mostly not dying however previous killing of any pigs. But because of brendas agricultural problem. And it starts getting into humans. He kills 109 people. Because the government of malaysia to call preventively 1. 1 million eggs they required the killings of all of the pigs who came from infected forms. Some of these farms, people were so scared by the disease that they were abandoning their own forms. They were running away from their own big farms printed at one point, pigs were running loose. Through the villages and in some cases abandon villages. It is like a nightmare scenario. But it really happen. Like something that an early book of exodus. Infectious pigs, running wild through the countryside, coughing a virus. One fellow called it the one ill barking park off, because you could hear the second pigs coming. He knew that your pig farm would be next. No story. Real story. They tried to solve the ecology and evolutionary biologys of these new diseases. Where does the virus live. For kason hendrick, the virus is called hendrick after a suburb of brisbane. It is a racing suburb. 19941 sables and that suburb the horses started to die. Why are they dying . Did they get poisonous feed . I veterinarian, a horse trainer and a stable hand tried to save the horses. The stable foreman got sick and went home thought he had a bad flu. The trainer got sick had a very Bad Influence of the hospital. The veterinarian never got sick. The trainer died. The isolated buyers from his him and his organs and from the horses they found a new virus and they named it after the suburb. Then they did the disease contact enchanted action where did it come from the chief detective was doing a phd on ecology he sampled kangaroos, wombats insects, things called porters he did not find the virus. Finally he sampled fruit bats and he found the virus that match what killed the horses and the trainer. They gave it the name henderson virus. It hasnt killed very many people comment doesnt pass from human to human but it is a knock on the door, a reminder to us of where these things come from, how they emerge, why they spill over. The fact that they are not all independent cases, but they are part of a pattern and that pattern reflects things that we humans are doing on the planets. And then, they get into humans. In some cases they cause a local outbreak which is easily controlled or comes to an end on its own. In other cases they cause wide spread suffering and death. Hiv being the case in point there. I might stop there and see if people have questions. There certainly a lot of other points that i can touch on. Let me hear from you all and see what you like to hear about. Thanks david, my name is rick and first of all comment i have a toasty warm memory of swimming at Bozeman Hot Springs i bet you have been there too. Its so its still there. Its a great place for the other is a question about viruses. I imagine is a small number, but does anyone know what percentage of viruses are pathogenic like the ones you mention . Guest no, because no one knows how many viruses there are. We talk about ed wilson or other people trying to estimate how many living species on planet earth. Nobody knows how many species of vertebrates and invertebrate animals, plants, fungi art with any precision. They make estimates ranging from 8 million to 30 million, to 100 million species. When you add the viruses and bacteria, nobody knows. [inaudible] guest the percentage of viruses that come out of animal pathogens to humans may be a very small percentage but the ones that are, are the exception are consequential. Thanks your question. Hello i enjoyed your book very much. I used it while i was a student in a class on biology. I do have a question about the genealogy of these diseases. I was curious if they had been using the human genome from the deep past where theres evidence of stuff that kills a lot of people maybe killed issues with the human population but is now totally harmless because all of the survivors have reproduced down the generations. So looking back in time for old pandemics and to trayce disease that way. Guest i havent seen much on that. Certainly certainly interesting to me is tracing in the human genome is endogenous retroviruses which are retrovirus, hiv is a retrovirus. Endogenous retroviruses insert themselves permanently into the human genome we dont know exactly, may be some cases that functions may be or what they used to be called junk dna. Theres a record right in the human genome of past infections and they can be recognized as belonging to this virus family or that virus family. So thats one thing that is there. In terms of their darwinian relationship between the infections of the deep past and the human genome as it survived, very interesting. I cant point you towards any particular work i have come across on that note. It has probably been done. It would have to be speculative to a certain degree. Im sorry, i really cant tell you much more than that. Hi, i have a question, so far we have heard you speak about different diseases that cause death. Usually, in the examples you gave us it was in dozens and hundreds, maybe thousands. But the reaction make it seemed like the government, the local governments overreacting when theyre trying to solve the situation and the problem. Recently for example in texas there was a west nile virus detected and they started spraying the swampy areas with the airplanes. My question is, are you doing more harm we try to solve these issues were only hundreds dying where there are diseases that kill millions and millions were not doing much. Here, since these are such exotic diseases we hear about them we get into a shock and the reaction seems to be too much, it may be harming the population what he think about that . Guest i hear you asking two questions for it are we doing some things that cause more harm than good . And also, are we sort of taking these things out of proportion to the damage that they do . Let me answer the second one first. I asked the same thing of a fellow who studied the meat virus i mention. It also occurs in bangladesh and has a different story and bangladesh because it is a Muslim Country and theyre not big pork farms. Doesnt pass through pigs as amplifiers and bangladesh. It is transmitted into raw date palm sap that people drink. Because of the way it is tapped, you drink from the pots and leave their waste in the pasta and they drink it and the virus. So i talked to this gentleman named steve luby he was second there from the cdc. I asked him the same thing. There are hundreds of thousands of children and bangladesh dying of bacterial diarrhea, and bacterial number own you. And bangladesh he was basted a place called the cholera hospital. These diseases have been murderous and bangladesh for centuries. I asked him, why bother with nippon which kills a few dozen people each year . When youve let all these other diseases. And he told me this is such a nasty disease, and it has so much potential that we cant ignore it simply because it is now small. It could be large. It is important, yes, to take these other diseases the oldfashioned garden diseases like cholera. Its important to take them seriously and keep it in perspective. But its also important to be vigilant about these new emerging diseases because after all, and 1981 we had a disease emerge called aids. And it was one of these. The influenza is emerged anew each year end influenzas are also capable of killing millions of people. Thats the response ive heard from the experts about why to take the small boutique diseases very seriously. You never know when one of those is going to become the next big one. In terms of the things we do just try to stop, contain or prevent the spillovers. In some cases yes, we probably do more harm than good. Spraying for insects, depending on what they are spraying with, would be an immediate candidate for that. Youd want to think about it. Because we have done so much, so much, so much futile damage over the decades trying to spray existence of insects. It just doesnt work. There are cases governments have taken very rigorous action and it has been very important and beneficial. For instanc