Figure out. At a permanent level i make decisions every day. Bought this car a while back. Its a hybrid. But i tell you i have no idea if the co2 i get from the 70 miles per gallon as a benefit to all of us,out weighs the cost of creating the car and the potential pollution impact of the battery after it gets stored. And maybe if we hadnt done that battery, we would explore new technologieses that have less of an impact. Was it go for me to buy the car . I dont know. This is my mom. I bought her that scarf of christmas. If bought they scarf 100 years ago, fine, no problem. Today, i dont know if that scarf was made in a sweatshop using cotton that had pesticides greg on it, and there were huge amounts of co2 as the scarf traveled from a long way away to the place where i bought it. My choices have actions at a distance and i have no idea what those impacts will be. Thats what im talking about today. You have a new super power. Its not all negative. The choices you make have Ripple Effects through the world. I think its sort of like i look 0 think of it as a fish in a upon. Maybe theres 200 fish the size of traditional human societies s and the fish are in the pond. Everything is go okay. Then a storm happens. And a river opens up. Connecting that fish pond to the ocean. My goodness, new fish swim upstream, our first swim downstream, the environment is fundmentally different because theyre salt water. I think were in that situation today as a society. Things are changing radically. Our actions have outcomes as a distance and thats what link is bows, the actions we take and the decisions we make as we consider those actions, and the path through which the actions become reality. How can we be responsible for the outcomes of our actions if theyre invisible. If we cant see the outcomes of our actions, irtheres fish in the larger ocean no longer in a small pond, we simply didnt evolve for this situation. Now im luckie went through the computer revolution, and when i was a kid computers were big, old things that nobody could use and my mom didnt know the difference between software and hardware. Had to explain that to her. We have again through a massive democratization of computing technology. Woe in the sale spate with a. I. And data and that new technology stack. A. I. Is done to us, but we dont have control over it. Data is overwhelming at a distance. At best we get a Data Visualization but ive had the honor of interviewing hundreds of people as a Technology Analyst and asking them, what are you frustrated about . If technology could solve one problem for you, what would it be . Over and over and over again i heard a similar answer. It looked like this. Oops, this is why im pretty sure i know what im dog. Background for me. Ive been building Machine Learning, applied systems, a really long time. Over 30 years. So i was funded by the human genome project and graduate school i built 100 million budgets for the government. Ive built thousands of Machine Learning models. Mostly supervised learning, back propagation who would have known it would still be with us so many years. My Machine Learning friends know what im talking about. So i believe that this background has given me an insight that is key. Theres something been missing all of these years. And that something that is missing is we have been coming up from the technology instead of putting humans at the center of the equation. Im honored to sit in dougs chair. My backside is honored and may is here who worked closely with doug. Look that he called it intelligence augmentation but a you can think of a. I. Flipping upsidedown to the. Cspan a. , putting humans at the center of the equation again and when i interviewed all of these people, i found what i called for a while a decision archetype. What is a decision in its an action, thought process that leads to an action. That action in a complex world learns through some stuff and i dent in the what buying that scarf or buying that car is going to do to the world. Its going to have some impact, but honestly i dont feel very motivate because i cant see that impact. Its not visceral and present. Doesnt grab my primate brain in a way that makes me think i really need to buy that hybrid car. I cant see it and the data stack today and the a. I. Stack today isnt giving that to me. This is my dog. His name is bowie. Im training him to be a service dog. And ive had him pretty much his whole life. Hes 11 months old. And i have this awesome thing happen to me. Have a trainer who is teaching me to train the service dog, and she taught me but abc, antecedent behavior consequence, and my head explodedded of. Thats what i heard from the humans ive been interviewing, talking about a antecedent, which i the context. Were in the kitchen if say sit. The behavior. My dog sits. The consequence. He gets a cookie. Okay. So this is a universal archetype. Isnt just one way to think but how we might use a. I. And data and ill tell you how that fits in, in a moment. What i think, im pretty certain, this is the way to think but because it has the lowest friction to how humans think. Lowest friction to how humans naturally think. Busy people live in come mex environments. They dont have much brain power to learn your optimization or inference methodology or those fancy things. We have to meet them where theyre at and the fact were not created a giant cultural barrier between people at the head of governments, at the head of businesses and even me, as they try to make decisions and try to use evidence and dat and a. I. To help make sure that those decisions have a rim effect that is Ripple Effect that is good. So farmers working at, have to decide what crop to plant. Down the road they dont know if that crop will make them productive or what will happen because they fewer Migrant Workers the situation has changed. Businesses might decide, where to acquire a company or about product to launch or what this to change, as they tack that it through you hear what my dog hears, ant seed den, the behavior, going to launch this product at this price, and then town the road, for my dog its immediate. Hes aing to. For us and what makes us special is we can think through long chains chain consequences but thats limited and we need computer help. A decision is an imaginative process in our heads, as we think through the actions in some context that will lead to some result. If you remember nothing else, remember this template and what is cool but decision intelligence, is because we start with humans, i can teach you some d. I. Today you can take home and use immediately. Thats my promise if you stick with the talk. Okay. How do we make decisions today . Im sorry to say and i only recently learn this. I had the idea thing happened but going back no a millenia of Human Evolution we dont think through the consequences of our decisions very deeply. We are much more likely not to think through things rationally and instead to use social signaling. We look for someone who looks successful in our society, who is dominant or prestigious and well copy the decision theyve been making. Thats very effective. It has been hugely successful for the human race and in fact its what operates us from separates us from other species. Were great copiers and cultural evolution theory says we develop behaviors and patterns that any individual cant understand but that the society, like kind of the unconscious process of genetic evolution, we use cultural evolution to couple up with these behaviors. This is what were programmed for littler wore programmed to look at some prestigious or dominant person and do what that do others opposed to talking through the consequences. That was great for a few millenial but the situation has changed. If theres a bad actor here or here, and they tell us that would do and theyre smart, they can subvert our behaviors. They can influence to us make decisions that benefit them but not us. If theyre smart about the situation. Second, the context is rapidly changing. We need to be developing new ways of coping with this big ocean thats fundamentalry different than our pond because it keeps changing. The water is flowing back and forth, theyre new issue and the old ways of thinking through problems at a societal and crowd level nor longer working. These have complex system dynamics. Theyre nonlinear theres feeback phoenix, winner take all, winners take all patterns where Large Companies or large artistes 90 of the benefit theres massive inequality. Action at a distance. Intangibles are important, too. Anybody who has worked with data, we tend to focus on the things we can measure easily. Money. Size, price. We tend to overlook reputation, happiness, more morale and yet ive never built a decision model that didnt have at least one feed back loop that involved a tangible, soft factor. We maas Start Talking to sociologist and others to understand the soft factors. The decision intelligence creates a road map how to do that. The other thing didnt say is the future is no longer like the past, and so if you in the work, the black swans, the problem when we assume the past and future are the same and modeled are based on the past and we dont realize the situation is changed, sudden lid the swans used to be white and theres a black one. What do i do . I believe that a. Immigration and d. I. , decision intelligence, can solve this problem. I grew up in a period of technology optimism. We were all sharing all of our code and the internet was going he democratize reality. We had a dream but he dont think we have realized that dream. I things decision intelligence will help douse there. I think we have created a number of links in the chain, data machine, learning collaboration, the internet, social media and theres one more link that we need to start to make a dig difference to have a nonlinear impact and thatsd. I. How do we do d. I. . We start with people. We dont say, where is the dat . Discover a da to is great but theres a huge amount of Human Knowledge in that is no no data simple. Were good nothing how our actions threated outcomes and your homework today is to go home, ask a friend who didnt come to this talk, how they think about a complex decision, i promise the recall talk but actions and the actions lead to enter meetat effect and that will lead to outcomes outcomes d theyll talk but to condition text. I sit down with a Diverse Group of experts and diversity is great, old, young, gender, race. Say what are the outcomes youre trying achieve . I know so many candidate that have massively big projects, who have never sat down and brainstormed how to the outcomes. Okay . I go and i consult at fairly senior levels with Many Organizations and i say what are you trying to achieve . And the list of outcomes is different for each person. Let me tell you you dont need technology to get better. You just need to have a brainstorming process where you think through the outcomes were trying achieve as a team. Is it higher revenue . Is it net revenue after two years . Is it some kind of a military advantage . Do we want a military advantage that doesnt create a backlash that will hits ten years later in terms of the psychological reputation of cower country. What the outcomes were trying achieve . Make sure you ask that question. Second, brainstorm through the objection. Many folk folked dont take the time have an open brainstorming session where theyve allow bad ideas and funny ideas for the actions we could take that might achieve the outcomes. Do that. Move all the blood to the creative side another your brain because when the blood is in the an lit tall side of the brain analytical side of the brain you dont have room for the creative seem. So separate them. Spend time being creative and then spend time being analytical. These triangled here are where a. I. Fits in and most decision models i believe as we democratize a. I. This its the pattern. So let me talk but a decision im facing today. I saw greta on tv. And she was so compelling. She said, weve get a Climate Crisis and the way we solve this, its really simple. Stop worrying about analysis. At the very least, pay for some trees. The organizations all over the world that will take your money and buy trees and those trees will go and there will be more bio mass and that will sequester some carbon and if enough people do this, she said it would make a big difference. I havent sent any money to a Tree Organization yet. I cant visualize the money i might send leads to a khan of events to some outcome. If im going to use a. I. To benefit me i want a visceral, interactive fun experience. And so this is what i think is the future of a. I. Its going to look like a video game and i hope weening do thats in the base. Because we can do thats in v. R. We are expecting we asks we might take and were leafing the computer help us understand the chain of event that sets in motion to lead to the consequences. Valuable at a personal level, also highly valuable at an organizational level. Let see if this works. Yay. Ive been having a lot of fun coding. I really like it. Theres an institute for the future ball that had no purpose whatsoever except to show you theres a physics engine run. Were trying to make a decision how much money im going to pay each year to sequester carbon. As i change the decision, this data here is telling me about the future that puts in motion. I spend some money, i change my decision, it changes the number of treesll purchase. Heres the bio mass. Heres the car been sequestered, hes the toldat atmosphereishing carbon. Theres barry hayes, each expert has an opportunity to say how the actions domestic outcomes here i can change my decisions but i can also change whether sam is right and who i can tryst . I can see that different people, different experts claim different things. Ultimately i can also click on their name and go to a site where i can see where theyre making their case. Their model for how buying trees leads to outcomes can help us and thats like wikipedia, a site that is curated and we canny to understand the situation. This sort of looks like a Business Intelligence dashboard. Sort of looks like stuff we have been building for a long time. Its not. Were not looking at a data set here. Were looking at the future. Were only summarizing it in the bar chart so you can understand it. The background, depending on choices have a sis fixes engine generating implications of the choices. A lot of investment. A lot of forests and then as i change my investment or use linda richie i can see how my decisions interact with the situation as they characterize it in order to impact the outcomes care about. This is a universal pattern. This example here is an example of something that you do in your head 500 time as day. And that Large Organizations really struggle with, understanding the impact of todays decision tomorrow. Ill give yaw couple of examples. These are Machine Learning models here. These little Blue Triangle and we might have bit a Machine Learning mod that can detect where a Computer System has a current intrusion. Machine learning widespread used with an intrusion detection and gives us a score. Might be 20 , 20 , up to 59 . Its pretty sure theres intrusion happening right now. Another model that says heres the type of intrusion. Its a ddos attack or Something Else and this picture is typical of many decision model situations. Its got some spa getty in it but spaghetti but that is not how people think. If that is how you think about things its better to have it on paper than 0 keep in your mind and explain when use invisible mechanism, words and text which is linear to communicate decisions need. A blueprint like this which is an architecture diagram for a Machine Learning system that shows how Machine Learning fits in and then we have choices. Can investigate the intrusionful thats going to benefit and impact outcomes. If i call the police every time it might be pretty costly. Need to try to call the police only when its necessary. This is the decision model i built with a bunch of farming experts as part of that big nsf project. Its got 23 ph. Ds and seven institutions and just finishing up the proposal. Please cross your fingers we need it. A National Center for excellence in a. I. And greg. What agriculture. What is important is i didnt have to explain decision intelligence to anybody if sat down with my diversion tome of experts and said what a thin cal farm are trying achieve . At first they said they want to be profitable and i said is that all . They said, they wouldnt want to take any actions that will put them out of business in a few years. Thats a second goal they need to balance against that. And then we talked but the actions. That those farmerred might take, make choices howl they spray their crops, their spraying credit all, the choice of crop and hybrid and cult. This gives us a map to understand how all ot and ai and Machine Learning technology filths together because theres a couple of models tell us how precision spraying women impact the yield. Another model says the amount of type of diseases or contaminants you might have based on spraying, and heres some i. O. T. Sensors that farmed have an 0 drone that they can use with a. I. To interpret the data know is a pathogen starting . We want as Early Warning as possible so we can spray as little as possible. Both from a cost and longterm available and a climate and pollution point of view. So its kind of spaghetti but having it on paper is better that in people residents head. This becomes an artifact. We design a decision in design thinking. A decision is something we can design. Thats pretty radical. When we did, we realize we can bring all of those engineering best practices to decisions. We can qa this thing, continuously improve it. Act as a blueprint that excozy end user my stakeholders built this. Their mental model. But connects them to the a. I. People so they know where to fit in. My team has been working together for a month before we had the diagram and nobody knew how to hold things together. We now have a map. We know hough it all fits together and we know where the a. I. Will go in. So whats going on with decision intelligence .