Based erin washington, d. C. We are improving Environmental Issues and pulse engagement, one of the ways that we do that is through are ff meetings like this one where we bring different experts and stakeholders together to develop shared understandings. And that dynamics and the Energy System. For those of you joining us online , you can use rfflive to join us and the conversation. This is the only report of its kind it harmonizes analysis from other organizations to allow for clear understanding and easy comparisons of potential Energy Futures as the world faces. Future Energy Markets , Energy Scenarios, climate trajectories and policy options at the global , regional , and national level. We are integrally pleased that for the first time, local Energy Outlook will be accompanied by an online Interactive Data tool , that you can use to export the data yourself. My colleague daniel will come up to the stage after i complete my initial remark and we will introduce you to that tool and a few minutes. Id like to also recognize the contributions of gloria and stewart who have helped us with the technical issues. I like to tell you little more about the work and give you some findings of the key analysis. First of all why take the effort to compare outlooks of different organizations . Longterm Energy Outlooks are prepared each year by some the most expert and International Organizations around the world. They inform public policy, and they informed 2 trillion each year and Energy Investments around the world. Once youve gathered the data from these outlooks it turns out that they are very difficult to compare to one another. Firstly outlook differs and terms of the units they use. Tons of oil equivalent, british thermal units, and more. And the second , Energy Outlooks differ about the assumptions that they make about the amount of energy included indifference sources of energy. That is the energy contained and each of that of oil, each cubic foot of natural gas , and the contact of energy varies considerably. These are two of the many differences that make it difficult to compare outlooks when trying to compare total energy use known as primary Energy Consumption. If we had a pile of currency, a mix of dollars, yens, pounds, and it euros and we try to figure out who has more money . We dont have the same conversion rates. The same Exchange Rates to add this up. This is a basic situation that we have with different Energy Outlooks. As a result policymakers dont have an easy access to energy experts. I became aware when i was leading the Energy Information organization. And try to reconcile and harmonize the different outlooks from the International Energies with opec and other organizations. With all this problem through the global Energy Outlook. Which takes a number of steps to produce an apples to apples comparison between the scenarios between the nine different institutions that are shown in this life. With this comparison we can provide better answers to questions such as what is the range of natural gas demand and asia . And our policies sufficient to meet longterm climate goals . What can we expect from Technology Like hydrogen and Carbon Captured storage . And much more. One final piece before i go into key findings , the scenarios developed by these institutions very and their assumptions about policies, technologies, and other factors. Many of these institutions produce multiple scenarios where the assumptions vary , and it includes 12 different scenarios in this years of global Energy Outlook which is shown here. We organize a scenarios into three different groups. First are what we call references scenarios. Generally assume that governments dont enact new policies. And Technology Evolves along recent trends. We represent the scenarios with a e line next to the slide. And then policy scenarios which are announced government policies. Visa scenarios are meant to do a better job of estimating how policies can unfold rather than assuming that they are static. We represent visa scenarios with a solid line. And finally the third group of scenarios we call ambitious climate scenarios. They are built around achieving longterm climate goals of less than 20c of warming by the year 2100. We represent those with a dotted line. Lets turn to some of the headline results, more of which are included in the report available online. This chart shows the share different fuels globally. When you look back and history near the left of the slide and then look near 2040 , the set of scenarios on the right , the primary Energy Changes dramatically. The scenarios for 2040 are left to right by decreasing fossil energy. Since 1965 we can see that the total share of fossil energy in the economy , has been roughly steady at 80 . The coal share has been consistently declining , and it is a relatively clean sources like gas and Renewable Technologies that have been expanding. Under every scenario for 2040. One generation from now, fossil energy declined to less than a of Global Energy. This is assuming no change and policies. The share of renewable energy, showing greengrocer varies a strongly. It grows very strongly. This is the story of the Energy Transition that ultra fuels get replaced by newer , cleaner sources over time and a gradual fashion as the system evolves. When it comes to the problem of Climate Change , the share fossil fuel doesnt really matter. It is the absolute level of emissions that count. While we have substantial decline and the cost of renewables, theres been dramatic expansion and renewable investments and an increase share of clean energy and several regions at the global level. That we have not yet seen and a major transition and fuel. Is not yet evident. I 2040 , reference scenarios project further additions to all fuel across the Energy System globally. And evolving policy scenarios which is the middle of the pack. Global consumption is roughly flat , while oil and gas consumption continues to grow. And ambitious climate scenarios we do see signs of a Global Energy transition and fuels. One interesting difference emerging as we look across the three different ambitious climate scenarios. The shelf sky, the substantial development scenario, and there renewable scenario. In this case the ethanol renewal scenario is a similar , the shelf sky is far more bullish on total Energy Demand. And the increase and the use of fossil fuel. This is driven by the inclusion of largescale Carbon Dioxide removal in the second half of the 21st century. We will return to this and if you slide. The point is that even among scenarios it may be targeted, with a particular amount of warming there can still be significant divergence and the evolution of the Energy System. It to create groupings of regions where im going to turn to the next couple of slides. We have two regions east and west. We define east as asia, pacific , the middle east and africa. And then the rest of the world including europe and americas. We see strong signs of transition in the west. This chart shows the consumption of liquid, primarily oil. The largest source of energy today. Over the last 25 years, liquids demand has a double. This is the set of scenarios on the lefthand part of the slide. It stayed flat in the west. Over the next 25 years the next generation , the main growth is and the east. Reaching more than 50 Million Barrels daily under all of the reference Case Scenarios and all the evolving policy scenarios. Only the substantial area do we see substantial decline and liquid demand and the east and the meantime all of these scenarios show flat or declining demand for liquid in the west. The divergence between the east and west is even more stark for coal. Over the last 25 years, cold man in the east has tripled and has declined in the west. The trend continues over the next 25 years as coal use declined in the west, and every scenario, most rapidly in the ambitious climate scenario. And the east the coal share declines quickly under the International Sustainable scenario and grows a strongly and several other scenarios. You can see the coal declining by the year 2040 and the emissions impact our affected by rapid emissions coupling with coal. The next slide turns to electricity globally. The global a little electricity demand is growing rapidly. And it is led by wind and solar power. This is measured and trillion watt hours. And a reference to the evolving policy , the coal shares decline, but the generation grows by 46 over this time. Natural gas, which provides 23 of Electricity Generation and the year 2015, by the way, 2015 as a last year where we have competence of global data from the International Energy agency. Natural gas share grows under the different scenarios. And absolute terms, natural gas increases under all scenarios, instead of the sustainable scenario. Nonhydro renewables like wind and the solar grow dramatically across these different scenarios pick even the most bearish projection shows a share more than doubling from 7 and 2015 to 50 and 2040. Its a very consistent message. As expected , the amount of fossil fuel used for Electricity Generation is significantly lower for scenarios that assume ambitious climate policies. Finally, despite the National Commitment made an accordance with the 2015 paris accord, all of the reference scenarios and most of the evolving policy scenarios a show continued growth and Carbon Emissions globally. Know that the figure shows that the net admissions rather than a growth admissions, meaning it incorporates Carbon Dioxide removal technologies, such as a Biomass Energy with carbon capturing storage and efforts to sequester Carbon Dioxide through reforestation. After stabilizing between 2014 and 2016. Global Greenhouse Gas emissions rose by roughly 2 and 2017 and 3 and the year 2018 , most of the evolving policy scenarios a show the growth flattening by the year 2040 reaching 37 37 billion metro metric tons annually. Still above the levels needed to limit warming to 20c. The ambitious climate scenarios from the company show that it is falling below 19 metric tons by the year 2014. Both scenarios include higher carbon prices, which propel substantial improvements and Energy Efficiency and Carbon Capture and storage apply to fossil fuel energys upscale. The shelf sky scenario projects net co2 emissions rising to 36 billion metric tons and the year 2025 and then falling i 2040. Omissions reach net zero by reach net 0 x 2070 followed by significant net removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere this is a taste, a flavor of the analysis that is included and our report, the Global Energy output and the data included online. I will now turn it over to daniel to introduce you to the online data tool. Thank you very much. Thank you very much richard , good afternoon. I am going to briefly show you some of the Data Analysis that is available to you all, whether youre here or at home. I fully recognize that watching someone click through website has the potential to be one of most boring things you will see today. So i will not spend too long, but i want to give you an idea for how this tool works and how you can put it to use for yourself or your organization. This is the homepage for the global Energy Outlook. If you scroll down a little bit, you will see our report for this year that we are discussing today. And you will quickly come to the data visualization. This is a tool that gives you a variety of options to click through and get a sense of how the Global Energy system has evolved and the past and how it is likely to evolve and the future, under the range of scenarios that richard has described. I will briefly show you what you have available to you and the default view and then i will show you a few options that you can manipulate as well as being able to Download Data images and embed the visualization into your own website. If you mouse over any of the lines and visualization , the data points pop up. Whether its for shell and the year 2065 or the year 2034. You can view the individual points by mousing over the lines. There are variety of scenarios that we include as default when you select any given measure, but you can also add or subtract scenarios from whatever view you are interested and. Shall goes out to the earth year of 2100. If you want to zoo men and look at a smaller timescale , you can deselect shall and then add n other areas. This is a view that gives you a sense of primary Energy Consumption for the world. For all fuels and all sectors. Lets say that we want to get a more granular. Let saving your interest and the potential for Energy Consumption and china in the future . You can change the region of you. Just click, scroll down to china , hit select , and the graph automatically reloads. Again you have the opportunity to select or deselect different scenarios as you see fit. Lets say we are not interested and total Energy Consumption and china , but we are interested and coal consumption and china. You click on the fuel button , scroll down to coal, select , and we provide the data that is provided and the underlining outlooks from the organizations. If youre interested a Nuclear Energy , you scroll down and click on nuclear. If youre interested and solar or any other type of energy , you can click on those as well. We present to you all the data that is available publicly from these organizations. I will note that at the moment , our sectors button is fairly limited, we are still updating the data that is underlined this tool. So when you click around and sectors you may get a limited result. But rest assured we are working on it to improve the experience. One more thing i want to show you before i asked richard to return to the stage as well as a sarah and ben to have a discussion on this report. I want to show you that you dont have to compare between outlooks. You can dig into any particular outlook and look at fuel consumption or the energy mix and that outlook. The way to do that is to change the data series that you are analyzing. Instead of comparing between outlooks and scenarios city want to compare between regions, sectors , or fuels. I will click on fuels. Quickly, we see primary Energy Consumption is not available here, because the default view is focused on the electricity sector. So lets go down to bp instead. When we click bp , you will see the china still selected as a region of interest , and we have a variety of Energy Sources displayed on on the figure. Coal is a leading Energy Source and china , you can also examine other fuels. Lets say we want to dig into renewable sources. I will click on geothermal energy, biomass, biofuels, solar and wind. Lets take out liquids and natural gas. Once again, i can look at specific transfer specific fuels and specific outlooks, depending on what youre interested him for yourself or your organization . I could spend another several weeks playing around with as a data tool. I will stop there. I hope you get the sense of how it works. I encourage all of you to play around with the data, explore and provide us with feedback. My email and richards and glorias will be displayed shortly on the screen. We encourage you to get a touch with us and let us know your suggestions for improving the tool. Or if you find any bugs in the data, we hope there arent any still lurking and there. But this is an enormous a data set. And we encourage any housekeeping you may be up to help us with. The last thing i will show you on the website before making a few more comments and then turning it over, is the ability to download the data for yourself. I have been looking at visuals, but you can also change the view to a table, just by clicking on the icon on the top right. You can download the data by clicking on the Download Button , or download an image of the two years that we were just looking up. Or you can download a file to and analyze the data yourself. And finally you can embed the tool into your own website using the embed visualization tool. Now im going go away from this website. And i will put us back on our regular scheduled programming. Here you see my email address, glorias , and richards email address. We encourage your engagement and your feedback on this tool as we work to improve it. A couple of final comments. Our plans to explore this tool or expand this tool the next few years are pretty substantial. We are looking for your foot back to learn what is most valuable for the and