Election 1976, a look toward the conventions. Your host is political in o analyst richard scanlon. Nan. His is richard scam with us is stephen hess. This morning we will try to talk the end of the primary season. The beginning of the preconvention caucus and trying to get together various factions to produce a candidate for president and Vice President in the fall. I suppose when one looks back on , there arey season two things really that stand out. The first is the rise of jimmy carter. Of second is the closeness the Republican Campaign for the nomination. Thisould you evaluate carter phenomenon. He was governor of a middle size state in the south. Pretty well assured the nomination as the first since the severacivil war. , ane this is a phenomenon incredible performance. He had only been governor for one term in a middle sized southern state. You might say one lesson we learned is it helps if you are to havefor president that as your fulltime job and not be encumbered by other duties. Through allnergy the primaries. Richard i emphasize that. The governor has to run back to the state. A senator has to run back to washington because if he doesnt his constituents will say he is spending all of the tax money running for office. Carter, once he left office as simplyr could concentrate his tremendous stamina. I must say that in addition to your point, one thing that impresses me more over the years is running for president is a terribly tiring thing. It is an awful lot of hard work. Carter seemed to have the time and energy. Asphen perhaps it is not much of a disadvantage as we once thought it was to not be terribly wellknown. Our media, television, newspapers, they could quickly make a person a celebrity. This news industry has to be fueled by tremendous number of new faces so they could quickly make it. I think it was attractive to News Reporters and the American People. What was he all about . Richard at the end of the campaign, it was almost as this. California had he began to lose a little momentum as other people came along. Stephen he virtually ran two campaign against a group of candidates in midjanuary. When they dropped out were replaced by jerry brown, mike church, others like that. Richard people started against him in february and march. We were discussing new hampshire, illinois, other states. Carter was unemployed and he had the stamina, one of the great things working for him was he was not identified as being one of the left or right. Both of these seem to have diminished in the years since 1972. Stephen the Democratic Party was uniquely nonideological campaign. They will go into the general election with a much greater quotient, you dont feel the death wish that has divided the party. Richard i have a feeling that in much of this, the fact that the war is over means the cement that held together the group is gone. Foundsolutions are being and emphasized. Now,u are hard right even things like the prudentials and nomination, the effort to achieve the senate is impressive. Stephen carter virtually offered the American People absolution. He was saying vietnam, watergate, you did to that, the politicians did. You are good even if your politicians were not good. Elect me and i will give you what you deserve. We could breathe a sigh of relief. Side,d on the republican governor reagan had that same antiwashing 10 absolution nest. Why is it so close . Stephen we are finding incumbency is a two edged sword. There are advantages and disadvantages. We have that. President on accident. We have a man who never campaigned nationwide before. The largest constituency was grand rapids, michigan. Much more equal than is usually the case with an incumbent and a challenger. As far as the republicans are concerned in a sense youre going back of eisenhower and taft, but without the moderate group led by general eisenhower. 1912ld be going back to because we really have in the Republican Party, ideological differences that are often times under the surface but are still very real. As of now we are looking at a contest that is very close. Stephen Ronald Reagan spent his life as an actor, he has been an effective campaigner. Them on put the two of equal footing and on common platforms, one is a more dynamic campaigner. You look at these 30 primaries, the majority of delegates chose the primaries. Would you agree with me that this has turned out to be a pretty representative set of elections in terms of the rank and file opinion . Stephen i think while the votes have been small it will come out about where the party is. Platform apply to the as well as the candidates are making at this time. I guess you would have to include this as work. Could they choose a representative leader for large umbrella organizations . They are each finding their center. Looking for the middle. That you have the feeling that the changing in the finance law has had less impact . Will find think we when we total it up at the end that they kept some money out of the system. There wont be the great contributors. Equalizede , would thiss campaign have been any different if somebody else had emerged . It is much more unlikely that the party rule changes. It may have made a difference. For example in 1972, mcgovern got every delegate in california because he won statewide. In 1976 these delegates were distributed in california and in many other states on a proportional basis. ,ven with the proportional base we still had the delegate. Stephen as i think you said on other occasions, doesnt jimmy carter mean something in terms of reestablishing what we used to call the new deal . Talking about it blowing apart like an atom . Carter is certainly a representative of the south. Bringing the south back into the party. When we move on into november, we may very well find carter succeeded in putting these major elements of the roosevelt coalition. Stronger in the upper midwest and in the northeastern state. I think this is true. As we pointed out on several occasions to get both the black voter and the wallace voter to support him. I would think too that as you , youat the republican side dont get the same sense of thatism even in the sense the president is a centrist himself. The socalled liberal wing is really not strong enough. Now it is up to the right to produce the center. Between the left and right. Thehen to some degree in Republican Party we see a tired party. It has been in office for eight years. Some of that loss of momentum with the democrats, the Party Activists are sensing it. You feel the momentum shifting. Richard you could see it in the primaries, in the delegate. It is interesting you know, at the beginning of the year we estimated we would have a very tough fight in the Democratic Party. It would be a rather quiet coronation. It certainly has not worked out that way. Stephen it has been a bad year for us as political commentators. Richard some things were right, we mustnt admit defeat. [laughter] lets look at some of the people, the men and women in a new york, kansas city this summer. Lets talk to some of them and see what their view is of their role, why they became involved and what the commitment is about the convention that they will represent not only themselves and their already, but their Party Friends in their congressional district. Delegates are elected in a variety of ways as shown here in virginia. Electold meetings to delegates to the National Conventions. Delegates who are elected in this matter usually are pledged to a particular candidate and hope to be elected on that basis. We asked several virginia why they wanted to be National Delegates and what they hoped to contribute to the respective convention . I believe the criteria for election should be perseverance and dedication. My sense of commitment to a oneidate is a very sincere that i have established in my own mind. That candidate is fully qualified. Once i have established that in my own mind, i will give the effort for everything. Careerugh my political it helps the political process for state offices or Natural National offices. I dont accept any instruction because you count on the delegates judgment to do what he thinks is best for the country at the time the vote is cast. I believe every citizen should do everything they can to participate in government because it is supposed to be the government by the people. This concept is not carried out. Years i haveast 10 been actively engaged in local politics. It seems to me that any politician who wants to become involved in the election of the president and one gets the opportunity to do that by becoming a convention delegate. Ran for delegate of the Republican National convention because i believe in the work,atic process to people or citizens must participate in all phases of the political process. I wanted to share in the decisionmaking process of the , theratic National Party experience as a local Party Activists. Delegatefor convention because i wanted to participate in the democratic National Convention and i wanted to support my candidate for president. Im committed to the Republican Party system. Our party believes in the of the individual and each man to control his own destiny. I firmly believe the future of this country and the world rests with the new dynamics leadership with the democratic has furnished throughout the history of the united states. Every citizen has the obligation to be involved in the affairs of their community. One of the most important things is the selection of the president ial candidate. Therefore i chose to be involved in the political process. We have seen these interviews with elegant going from kansas city to new york. A person going to those conventions and how they view dysfunction. What about the conventions themselves . Choosely the major is to a candidate for president. Theres a lot of things they do as well. What is the most important function . Course they also of have to choose a running mate, the Vice President ial candidate. Everything involved in that. Shouldnt be a candidate from the south if it is one from the north . Choosing a candidate who has ties with labor, if the other has ties with management. Important in the election equation. Richard when we say choose, durham of her any case what the convention refused to endorse the recommended choice . Stephen just be second to stephenson nomination. , the chooserhoose is the nominee. , draft a platform, set the principal. , all ofed housekeeping the machinery that keeps the party going. It has to deal with the convention the considerable credentialsthe ca committee. Questions particularly are important if the convention is still open with the president ial nominee. Havee whatever side they two get the early momentum. The picking up of a few delegates. Richard even so, when we have to say that as far as the convention is concerned work isally, 95 of its in the nominee . Platforms happen to be cross interest documents which say very little and extends the , if youre looking for the issues of the campaign that could project with the president , could you look at the past behavior of the candidate rather than whatever form they have . Stephen certainly. The individual who maybe president is far more important. One thing we know about these upcoming conventions is that unless the nomination is not locked up, they will have a good deal of time on their hands. It is also like any other Big Convention of likeminded people. Whether they are engineers or plumbers. Be listening to a lot of speeches with the opportunity. Or party a lot of candidates running for senator or governor in their own state. A lot of hoopla. Richard even within all of that hoopla, lets take a specific case. Carter seems to be the choice of the democrats. That will be ratified at the convention in new york. There is no surety on the republican side. , we havediscuss this this problem. We talk about charts and delegates. When we say this, what are we really saying . How firm do you think these places are in law . Stephen in law it is governed by each state law. It is often just one ballot. It is not fixed for everyone ever. They dont go down in a blaze of glory with the candidate. Richard you see any possibility the republicans might come up with a third personality, compromise candidate who could ford and reagan . Stephen there could be. They feel strongly and are very close to each other. One wins and the other loses. Theres not much give in a convention. We dont have very many oldtime who would we put in that smokefilled room . Richard im sure this is correct because you think back 1952, even then there were warren, but its, was interesting that on the balance and all of the primaries it has just been reagan and ford. It is a one on one. The only one i seen in my lifetime watching politics. ,he fact that it is oneonone it does not necessarily mean the winner will lose. 52 kraft and eisenhower were calling each other every name in the books. Guy won the that victory over Andrew Stephenson. The closerere is parallel because they flooded out in the primary and the preconvention period. You had an incumbent president in harry truman. It is a very divided party. The liberals walked out. Candidates ic as it turned out, harry truman put it back together. Take these into account, all it tells you about the convention and can engine system is we might make as many. Istakes these conventions will be summer, whatis else should people look for . We point out something about the rules and the platform. Is there any opportunity here for a personality to bust forward on the National Scene . Stephen the recent history of people who have been giving the , other national nominating speeches have not been very good. Douglas macarthur in 1952, a situation similar to this. Somehowught he would stampede the convention, that did not happen. Your number one some people suggested in 1960 that Andrew Stephenson would electrify the convention and did a third opportunity to win the presidency . It had no effect on the delegates. Someen we could see movement for the future of the party. The idea of john kennedy emerging and running for the vice presidency in 1956. Gun. Pening richard though one of the time. This was starting him out on a great career. He finished off his term two years later. As the democratic nomination in 1976. I think you are quite right in pointing out the condition of harry truman. Joy int that you have the coronation or a great bitterness. There is only a slight relationship in november. Backparty could often come together awfully quickly. The democrats in 1968 when humphrey was the candidate, the war was a really abrasive thing. The republicans have done the same. The atmosphere of the convention is going to decide november anymore than the atmosphere of january decided the convention. Scanlon inhard washington. With me has been stephen hess of the brookings and touche. [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2020] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org]
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