themselves to trump, it would be good. donald trump has 42% approval rating. if it's not better than that, it's over. there hasn't been a president whose party didn't suffer in the midterm elections. normally the president's approval rating at this point holds to the election. the one time it didn't happen was jimmy carter. we still have 100 days to go. at this particular point it's bad for them. >> independence, a whole other piece of the puzzle, right? >> exactly. we're talking about donald trump's base. the republican party will carry 90% of the voters donald trump won in 2016 in this midterm election. if that 10% we're looking at of his base that voted for him in 2016 but probably because they didn't like hillary clinton, and she's now not on the ballot. if that goes over to the democrats this midterm it will be a democrat landslide.