Sweden and finland in nato, a strategic defeats for russia, the hello and welcome to the port. Its great to have you with us, our guests this week, alexandra fund, them and heads dw as Brussels Bureau covers, nato and security policy, and has also reported from russia. And its a pleasure to welcome daniel who can do it. She is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund with a focus on Central Europe and colonel. Both congress wished or joins us from virtually, from vienna. Shes a Senior Advisor at the Austrian Institute for europe and security policy. So let me begin. If i may, uh, with you, alexandra to formerly neutral nations, join the western alliance. How momentous is the shift . Does it significantly strengthen data . The answer is yes, definitely having finland and so sweet, enjoying nature as a big win for the alliance. When we talk about a sweden, they have a very highly capable armed forces and a geographic situation in proof of natos a push it and the voltage see. And of course, in addition, you have to say that sweden has already been integrated to some extent into natal structures. They have been invited to meetings, they have participated in exercises and know that they are able to join the alliance is also showing the kremlin. Thats the only finland. One thing to be in the clap was not an isolated incidents. So this is a reaction to rush of submission against ukraine. Daniel, when finland in sweden, 1st applied to join. Some analysts said that their membership would turn the baltic sea into a nato lake. Would you agree with that . And what do you see as the geo political implications of the expansion . You know, the geo political implication is that nato is not on. Frank is significantly strengthened and especially the organizations ability to uh, to reinforce its positions within the bath to countries which additionally used to be to the most exposed for both of the organizations. Since they joined nato. And i think the positions are significantly strengthened significantly reinforced. And against the background, the pushed her against russia to undertake any thought experiments to the challenge in april positions in, in the region. The messages that it can be potentially a very bad idea. So baltic, same data like bout succeed nato lake. So definitely in board time, theyll peroration on capability. Also the russian baltics leads to conduct maneuvers will be significantly limited. Sports going at the same time, we have the us equivocating about further support for ukraine and presumed republican president ial candidate donald trump casting doubt on whether the us would even defend all of its fellow nato allies. Under those circumstances, doesnt that dyed leute the effects of this expansion by undermining trust in the notion of collective defense as a whole i yes me in the i think your question is called correct. Im should not forget that sweden and finland joined nature. Also that could also have unblocked on or relied on the you defense commitments which are enshrined in the you create a but the big difference between the, you and i to is us. The u. S. Provides a Nuclear Umbrella or at least look, theyre going to use the ridges in portland for finland and sweden and all that does, of course, since russia is the 2nd one of the 2 big Nuclear Countries under lot. And this comes as a contradiction as the on the one side of the line or later was us going to use on these other side to us. At least the trunk cars cost out where the, this guarantee is really, really be complied with. And this makes sure makes clear why no to is now in a difficult position. In addition to the question why the us congress cannot deliver weapons and financial means to order in which is also associated already and probably the elections in november in the us. Thanks very much and we will come back to the stability of nato and also the Nuclear Issues in a moment. But 1st, id like to take a closer look at what the accession of spend, gland, and sweet, sweet, and data is 31st, and 32nd members means for the alliance and the region. The strengthening nato. 20000. 00 sweeter service men and women on our part of it to the country is giving up a long tradition for most secure seats in the Nato Alliance. Somebody loves reading is leaving 200 years of neutrality im mandatory norm alignment behind. This is a big step spirit. The swedish military is considered efficient, and its navy is equipped with states of the also equipments. The country has little sir reintroduced Compulsory Military Service and could quickly mobilize soldiers in the event of war. Russias war of aggression against ukraine changed everything fulfilled and done. Sweet. Those countries had already applied to join nato in may 2022, a quick process for offended. But since the case of sweden, kentucky, and hungry had reservations, new alms deals for both countries were of facts and guessing them to agree. Which means nato is moving closer to russia after expanding east. It is now also expanding north pendant has been a member since 2023. And now sweden is joining us. The 32nd Member States bucks. How strong is the new nature really . Alexander, you mentioned briefly and your 1st remarks, what sweden brings to the alliance, say a little more about that if you would please, how much these 2 countries add to natos defensive capability. But also where you think the challenges might lie in integrating them and really ensuring a cohesive whole. Well, i think with was a big problem was not to have sweden in the alliance right now. Because we know that need to as over holding their defense plans and sweden has been an important country in that. So it was hurting the alliance knots to have sweden as a member. And its gonna help to implement those new defense plans, knowing that sweden is now in the lions. And as i mentioned, they have a highly, highly capable armed forces. Unlike some other members of nato who are joining the alliance after the end of the cold war. And state will improve the situation in the bolts baltic sea. We already talked about that. And the voltage states can feel mice much say for a now because a sweden can help the, the to make sure that they can be there. Because there can be c in for reinforcements. So if needed, if there is anything, if russia would risk any miscalculation until now, the Baltic States would needs to be provided with weapons and armed forces with very, very vulnerable Border Crossing between poland and least when yeah. And now the situation, the whole situation has a change. So i think there is no real challenge to integrate sweden. But what is of its problematic . Its the whole process that it took so long. And that we saw that some, a member of the alliance were upon the not so concerned about the russian sweats. And exactly, that is what i would like to talk to daniel about to you are from hungary and hungry. In fact, was one of the nato members that held this up for so very long. In fact, it is sometimes said that hungry and turkey were both doing natos doing a put in his bidding by delaying us, especially the swedish accession for so long. What kind of signal does that send about Alliance Unity or disunity . Yes, um i think its send to main signal and it was widely used and exploited also by the russian propaganda and dependents. Media that there is this, you need to, uh about speed, especially speed in succession to, to make, to the vet or that argument was used to spread also division among western allies. I am not so certain, but the domino re, various arguments could be very, theyll use that. The russian domestic propaganda. So it was important for the kremlin, for domestic political reason that this happened. And why in the case of cherokee, i think we can be more robust sourcing. Thats the power of calculations both based really on the regime interest. And in the case of, of hungry it will be used. I think it was partially yesterday, Egypt Service to restaurant the country has im going to back to all foreign policy. Its priced to have close cordial ties to strategic contender. So if its own best underlying system, russia and, and to china and the supposed parts of this power calculation. Why Prime Minister or been delayed the certification 21 most, all in the and his agreement was essentially purchased through a quid pro quo. Oh, what exactly do mr or bon and a so mr adder one get out of all of this . I think the 2 cases are absolutely different. For turkey, it was really crucial defense deal which allowed to practically the upgrading of the existing gap, 16 fleets to the, to the newest level, which was important because the countries access to the, to the 5th generation of certified fighters was rejected by both of Us Administration and, and to us congress, in the case of hungary, no similar, definitely the defense deal took place. So practically what we, so the purchasing of 4 o 8 generation griffin fighters and the extension of the Service Package be to use is a face facing measure. The Prime Minister. Our bank can also claim in the public that there was something enough change for the hon. Get reimbursed if occasion in reality, simply the pressure was too high and on your end position was not some able anymore. But if i may just one sentence, but its also showing us that for those members, domestic politics, one more, more important than making sure that the alliance is being strengthened in the process. And this is very telling of it already did damage to me to, i would say. And in many ways thats the exact thing that you could say about the us as well. Its very much about domestic politics. Both going, if i can come to you to talk about another dispute among natos leading members at the moment. That is also start up doubts about the solidity of the western alliance. When french president , my com said that he could not rule out sending Ground Troops to ukraine. Basically, chancellor schultz pushed back immediately and contradicted him in a very public rebuke. What do you think that means and how damaging is it for nato . Let me say 1st that there was a red line for a long time, agreed with in nature that metal Member States would not become parties to the conflict, directly intervene. That means it was a red line to propose sending drunk troops to grow into fight directory. Russia, because it could lead to an expansion or ext escalation loads of war and europe could find itself, you know, terrible to go out because we speak about for nuclear power. I said would be involved in such kind of thing. So that was astonishing that comment. This proposal and bolt is even more, thats the only thing is that obviously behind closed doors, it was key already in the preceding meeting that this proposal would not find any support by the majority of your natural steps. Nevertheless, my call went to the microphone afterwards into public announced that he could not exclude this option. So this sent and of course a response, but there was a sense of the sickness of this unity around the unit 2. So in so far, one could even say it didnt solve the purpose of cost. I understand that the funds wanted to increase its own roll. It was in the defensive position, particularly after the unix security conference of the but even criticized problems a lot to get about as much as terminated and left behind, etc. But they, i mean, as president s or from see themselves, they have to have a leading role and take back the initiative. And i think that was also one of the reasons why my call did it, but he did it not very skillfully. So he know, finally this group sent the signal of this unity and regrettably the other, the decision that was made that the, that is the using the defense facility means was a tour of by and for example, in the initial abroad and not just in europe or in france, that was then not recognized under public so much so that was a signal of unity, but obviously it was most skillful it or daniel the death of luke and talked about seizing the initiative. Chancellor schultz has often been accused of doing the opposite of lagging behind in terms of leadership and of essentially always staying to the back even though the german public now seems to support a more pro active position visa view russia. And in regard to support for ukraine, do we see here a fundamental weakening of the french german motor within the alliance due also to german inertia . I think we see the coming in the german french tandem now for more than 2 years. And theyll be usually, this can be traced back to the lack of joint commission. And theyll be usually in some way to the lack of chemistry between the leadership of the, of the 2 countries. Its the tragedy actually of, of the john and strategic thinking, guns, ukraine, policy, thats the country is performing so high, practically is the 2nd 2nd most important thats on the very partner of ukraine. Meanwhile, its kind of explain the situation and turn it into an enhanced leadership position at, at your pm level. Obviously, thats also a sign of to be coming, drawn on strategic position within the european union. But i think this install to it, but this announcement of president chrome, we see this clip which was in this european entry and for a time us, alexandra. But meanwhile, lets talk about putting this reaction to all of this. His chief idealogue had described russias goal in general as the finland, this ation of europe. Instead we get what you might call the euro atlantis and aid station. A scandinavia, do you think protein will have reckoned with those consequences . And how would you expect him to respond Going Forward . Well, i think that of course, the kremlin and put in himself they so what, whats coming and, and, and, and off to film and succession. We also so kind of them trying to there were reports about hybrid the tax. They were threatening to increase the number of troops on the border to finland. But basically, i mean, uh, this is made. So i dont think that a 14 which risk, anything knowing what kind of response a this, any attempt would be a match with. So i dont expect any straightforward reaction, but of course, for sure we will see may be, you know, hybrid the tags. A lot of propaganda, probably trying to play down the fact that sweden now also is joining nato. And what i learned from my time covering, put in is that you should never expect something that its like clear and you would do it because they always would come up with something that its different. And, and maybe also surprising. Speaking of something different, lets stay with the topic of the russian response and to direct our attention to south Eastern Europe, where a break away of republics request for mosque us protection. Looked like a playbook for another special Russian Military operation. That has been an obvious increase in russian soldiers at the boulders and in terms mr. Yeah, its unclear how many there are. They all the symbol of who is in charge in terms of history on hootons, russian the nice, the river separates the republic of most of us from the break away region on the eastern bank for russian trends. Mr. Young with its 360000 inhabitants, the region broke away from the republic of mold about at the beginning of the 19 ninetys. Geo. Strategically, the country is locations at a focal point between the republic of molding, which is pro european and ukraine. Now the pro russian root is not officially asking russia for protection for mold about an initial reaction for most co shows, the protection of the citizens of transmit street is the priority well trans industry over come the next domino, intrusions, expansion plans. And let me put that question straight away to you of, of cotton post as a military officer. And as a security advisor, you have considerable experience also in Eastern Europe and the congresss, including in georgia, where a similar frozen conflict has been going on for quite a long time. Do you think trends in history a is the next domino to i think uh, we have seen uh tensions and plus tons of history are coming up and uh then again uh, floating down uh, several times uh, this is the 30th or conflict. I would say a post, so good conflict, right. Was not clear from the beginning of the month of uh, with uh, the drawing back to romania as it was historically the case between the 1st and 2nd world war. And then these, slavic populations would not be in a position to do that. And i wanted to maybe then very good on the, on independence of john ross. So this is something we have discussed for us. It was the, the organization for security and co, uh, security cobra russian girl was involved. The russians that were, i had them on board for peacekeeping operations. Well, also ask you this, draw a heavy bathroom which i did also have been scanning verification contribution in the up to 2003 since then we have around 1500 russian and local troops in this area. Theres light equipment. So when you look realistically, also at the geography of this conflict, i could not imagine that major operations could start from there. But in particular, since the Russian Forces are totally absolved in particular, land forces physical, creating a new war. And even the withdrawal forces phone calling and dropped from the boy to a bonus. And trump, by the way, it was from the very long border to phillip. So the questioning i showed in an address. Yeah. Yeah. In a nutshell, yeah. Could this lead to annexation, you know, much of russia has, has no means at the moment to do with that. They would of course, be happy when the tensions could be increased at this point about a real, a mandatory side. I cannot see for the moment, but the tensions were rush. Thank you very much. Let me pass that straight on to daniel. A small dover itself seems to downplay the transmit stand request saying it was a propaganda move, which is the west to now, how should the west respond . I think the west response should be mostly led to by the expectations of the point here, because ultimately its about the super entity and territorial, the integrity of, of the country. But however, if you take a look what could be the real strategic intentions of the kremlin to be with this move . This is obviously in, during the of us european accession process and, and also to influence the president ial elections, which will be upcoming during the spring. And then disregard, i think that you are appealing response