And sweden and finland in nato. A strategic defeats for russia, the hello and welcome to the port. Its great to have you with us, our guests this week, alexandra fund, them and heads dw as Brussels Bureau covers, nato and security policy, and has also reported from russia. And its a pleasure to welcome daniel who can do it. She is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund with a focus on Central Europe and colonel of, of congress to joins us drum virtually from vienna. Shes a Senior Advisor at the Austrian Institute for europe and security policy. So let me begin, if i may, uh, with you, alexandra to formerly neutral nations, join the western alliance. How momentous is the shift . Does it significantly strengthen data . The answer is yes, definitely. Having phillips and so sweet, enjoying nature as a big win for the alliance. When we talk about a sweden, they have a very highly capable armed forces and a geographic situation in proof of natos, a portia in the baltic sea. And of course, in addition, you have to say that sweden has already been integrated to some extent into natal structures. They have been invited to meetings, they have participated in exercises and know that they are able to join the alliance is also showing the kremlin. Thats the only finland. One thing to be in the club was not an isolated incidents. So this is a reaction, a to rush of submission against ukraine. Daniel, when finland and sweden 1st applied to join. Some analysts said that their membership would turn the baltic sea into a nato lake. Would you agree with that . And what do you see as the geo political implications of the expansion . Yeah, the geo political implication is that nato is not on. Frank is significantly strengthened and especially the organizations ability to, to uh, to reinforce its positions within the bath to countries which additionally used to be to the most exposed for posts of the organization. Since they joined nato. And i think the positions are significantly strengthened, significantly, reinforced, and against the background, the post chair against russia to undertake any thought experiments to the challenge in april positions in, in the region the, the messages that it can be potentially a very bad idea. So politics and data like about succeed nato lake, so definitely inboard time. Del peroration, all capability. Also the russian baltic fleets to conduct maneuvers will be significantly limited. It was done at the same time, we have the us equivocating about further support for ukraine and presumed republican president ial candidate donald trump, casting doubt on whether the us would even defend all of its fellow nato allies. Under those circumstances, doesnt that dyed leute the effects of this expansion by undermining trust in the notion of collective defense as a whole i guess maybe the think your question is called correct. Im should not forget that sweden and finland joined nature. Also there could also have unblocked on or relied on the you defense commitments which are enshrined in the you create a but the big difference between the, you and i to is us. The u. S. Provides a Nuclear Umbrella or at least located guarantees. Ridge is impossible for finland and sweden and all that does, of course, since russia is the 2nd one of the 2 big Nuclear Countries undergo. And this comes as a contradiction, as a, on the one side, the on late to be through us going to use on these other side to us. At least trump cost out where the, this guarantee is really, really be complied with. And this makes sure it makes clear why no to is now in a difficult position. In addition to the question why the us congress cannot deliver weapons and financial means to order in which is also associated already and probably the elections in november in the us. Thanks very much and we will come back to the stability of nato and also the Nuclear Issues in a moment. But 1st, id like to take a closer look at what the accession of spend, gland, and sweet, sweet, and data is 31st, and 32nd members means for the alliance and the region of the strengthening nato. 20000. 00 sweeter service men and women on our part of it to the country is giving up a long tradition for most secure in the nato alliance. Somebody loves reading is leaving 200 years of neutrality. Im industry norm alignment behind. This is a big step spirit. The swedish military is considered efficient, and its navy is equipped with the state of the oss equipments. The country has little sir reintroduced Compulsory Military Service and could quickly mobilize soldiers in the event of war. Russias war of aggression against ukraine changed everything fulfilled and done. Sweet. Those countries had already applied to join nato in may 2022, a quick process for 50 bucks in the case of sweden, kentucky, and hungry had reservations. New alms deals for both countries were effects and guessing them to agree. Which means nato is moving closer to a russian officer expanding east. It is now also expanding north pendant has been a member since 2023. And now sweden is joining us. The 32nd member stage box. How strong is the new nature really . Alexander, you mentioned briefly and your 1st remarks of what sweden brings to the alliance. Say a little more about that if you would please. How much these 2 countries add to natos defensive capability. But also where you think the challenges might lie in integrating them and really ensuring a cohesive whole. Well, i think what was the big problem was not to have sweden in the alliance right now. Because we know that nature is over holding their defense plans and sweden has been an important country in that. So it was hurting the alliance knots to have sweden as a member. And its gonna help to implement those new defense plans, knowing that sweden is now in the lions. And as i mentioned, they have a highly, highly capable armed forces. Unlike some other members of nato who are joining the alliance after the end of the cold war. And state will improve the situation in the bolts baltic sea. We already talked about that. And the voltage states can feel mice much say for a now because a sweden can help us to, to make sure that they can be there. Because there can be c in for reinforcements. So if needed, if there is anything, if russia would risk any miscalculation until now, the Baltic States would needs to be provided with weapons and on forces with very, very vulnerable Border Crossing between poland and lisa when yeah. And now the situation, the whole situation has a change. So i think there is no real challenge to integrate sweden. But what is a problem i took if the whole process that it took so long. And that we saw that some, a member of the alliance were upon the not so concerned about the russian sweats. And exactly, that is what i would like to talk to daniel about to you are from hungary and hungry. In fact, was one of the nato members that held this up for so very long. In fact, it is sometimes said that hungry and turkey were both doing natos doing a put in his bidding it by delaying us, especially the swedish accession for so long. What kind of signal does that send about Alliance Unity or disunity . Yes, um, i think it sent a main signal and it was widely used and exploited also by the russian propaganda and dependents media that there is these, you need to uh, the about speed, especially speed and succession to, to make to the vet or that argument was used to spread also division among the best and elias. I am not so certain, but the domino re, various arguments could be very, theyll use, thats the russian domestic propaganda. So it was important for the kremlin, for domestic political reason that this happened. And why in the case of turkey, i think we can be more robust sourcing. Thats the power of calculations both based really on the regime interest. And in the case of, of hungry it will be use that the pose partial, the a split dietrich service, the restaurant, the country has. Im with the vector all for a policy its prize to have close cordial ties to strategic contender. So if its own best underlying system, russia and in to china and disposed of this power calculation, why Prime Minister or been delayed this rectification . 21 most. All in the and his agreement was essentially purchased through a quid pro quo. Oh, what exactly do mr. Or bon and a so mr outer one get out of all of this. So i think the 2 cases are absolutely different. Uh, for 13, it was really crucial defense deal which allowed practically the upgrading of the existing gap, 16 fleets to the, to the newest level. Which was important because the countries access to the, to the 5th generation of sort a 5 fighters was rejected by both of Us Administration and, and to us congress. In the case of hungary, no, similar definite defense deal took place. So practically what we, so the purchasing of 4 o 8 generation griffin fighters and the extension of the Service Package be to use is a face safety measure. The Prime Minister, our bank can also claim in the public that there was something enough change for the hon. Get reimbursed if occasion in reality, simply the pressure of us too high and on gary on positioning was not some able anymore. But if i may just one sentence, but its also showing us that for those members, domestic politics, one more, more important and then making sure that the alliance is being strengthened in the process. And this is very telling of it already bits damage to natal would say, and in many ways thats the exact thing that you could say about the us as well. Its very much about domestic politics of both going. If i can come to you to talk about another dispute among natos leading members at the moment. That is also stirred up doubts about the solidity of the western alliance. When french president , my com said that he could not rule out sending Ground Troops to ukraine. Basically, chancellor schultz pushed back immediately and contradicted him in a very public rebuke. What do you think that means and how damaging is it for nato . Let me say 1st that there was a red line for a long time, agreed with in nature that natural Member States would not become parties to the conflict directly into the. And that means it was a red line to propose sending drunk troops to grow into fight directory russia because it could lead to an expansion or ext escalation loads of war. And europe could find itself, you know, terrible to go up because we speak about for Nuclear Power us, it would be involved in such kind of thing. So that was astonishing that my comment this proposal and about is even more. Its the only thing is that obviously behind closed doors, it was key already in the preceding meeting that this proposal would not find any support by the majority of your natural steps. Nothing of this. My call went to the microphone afterwards into public announced that he could not exclude this option. So this sent and of course the response. But there was a sense of the signal of this unity around the unit 2. So in so far, one could even say it didnt. So the purpose of course, i understand that the funds wanted to increase its own roll. It was in the defensive position, particularly after the unix security conference of the even criticized funds will have to get about as much as drum and it, and elect behind, etc. But they mean as president s or from see themselves that have to have a leading role and take back the initiative. And i think that was also one of the reasons why my call did it, but he did it not very skillfully. So he know, finally this group sent the signal of this unity and regrettably the other, the decision that was made that the, that is the using the defense facility uh means was a tour of by, for example, initially abroad. And theyll just in europe or in france, that was then not recognized under public so much. So that was a signal of unity, but obviously it was not skillful. Daniel, and then i was gonna talk to about seizing the initiative. Chancellor sholtes has often been accused of doing the opposite of lagging behind in terms of leadership and of essentially always staying to the back even though the german public now seems to support a more pro active position visa view russia. And in regard to support for ukraine, do we see here a fundamental weakening of the french german motor within the alliance due also to german inertia . I think we see the coming into german, french. I tend them now for more than 2 years and theyll be usually this can be traced back to the lack of joint commission. And theyll be usually in some way into the lack of chemistry between the leadership of the 2 countries. Its the tragedy actually of, of the german strategic thinking, guns, ukraine policy, thats the country is performing so high, practically is the 2nd 2nd most important, but thats on the very partner of ukraine. Meanwhile, its kind of explain the situation and turn it into an, an enhanced leadership position that at europe young level. Obviously, thats also a sign of the becoming drawn on strategic position within the European Union. But i think this didnt started, but this announcement of president on chrome, we see this clip which was in this european entry and for a time us, alexandra. But meanwhile, lets talk about putting this reaction to all of this. His chief idealogue had described russias goal in general as the finland, this ation of europe. Instead, we get what you might call the euro atlantis needs ation of scandinavia. Do you think protein will have reckoned with those consequences . And how would you expect him to respond . Going forward. Well i think that of course, the kremlin and put in himself space. So what, whats coming and, and, and, and off to fill in succession. We also so kind of them trying to, and there were reports about hybrid the tax. They were switching ink to increase the number of troops on the border to finland. But basically, i mean, this is need to, i dont think thats a 14 which risk, anything knowing what kind of response this any attempt would be a match with. So i dont expect any straightforward reaction, but of course for sure we will see may be, you know, hybrid attacks, of a lot of propaganda, probably trying to play down the fact thats sweden now also is joining nato. And what i learned from my time covering, put in is that you should never expect something that its like clear and you would do it because they always would come up with something that is different and, and maybe also surprising. Speaking of something different, lets stay with the topic of the russian response and to direct our attention to south Eastern Europe, where a break away republics request for moscows protection. Looked like a play book for another special Russian Military operation. That has been an obvious increase in russian soldiers at the boulders and in terms mr. Yeah, its unclear how many there are. They all the symbol of who was in charge in terms of history on hootons, russian the nice, the river separates the republic of most of us from the break away region on the eastern bank for russian trends. Mr. Young with its 360000 inhabitants, the region broke away from the republic of mould about at the beginning of the 1990s. Geo, strategically, the country is location out of focal points between the republic of motive, which is pro european and ukraine. Now the pro russian rulers, im officially asking russia for protection for mold about an initial reaction from moscow, shows the protection of the citizens of transmit street is the priority will trans industry ever come the next domino intentions expansion plans . And let me put that question straight away to you of, of cotton post as a military officer. And as a security advisor, you have considerable experience also in Eastern Europe and the congresss, including in georgia, where a similar frozen conflict has been going on for quite a long time. Do you think trends in history a is the next domino to i think uh, we have seen uh tensions and plus tons of history are coming up and uh then again uh, floating down uh, several times this. As i said, 2 years old conflict, i would say a post, so good conflict, right . Was not clear from the beginning of the month of uh with uh the join back to romania as it was historically the case between the 1st and 2nd world war. And then these, slavic populations would not be in a position to do that. And i wanted to maybe very good on the, on independence of john russell. This is something we have discussed for us. It was the, the organization for security and co 6 were to go brush and then go to, was involved the russians that were, i had them on board for a peacekeeping. Operations will also ask you this, draw a heavy weaponry which i did also have been scanning verification contribution in the up to 2003 since then we have around 1500 russian and local troops in this area. Theres light equipment, so venue a look realistically. Also at the geography of this conflict. I could not imagine that major operations could start from there. But in particular, since the Russian Forces are totally absolved in particular, land false is physical training in the war. And even the withdrawal forces phone calling and go out from the boy to a bonus. And from, by the way, it was from the very long border to philip. So the question i showed in an address. Yeah. Yeah, in a nutshell, yeah. Could this lead to annexation, you know, much of russell has, has no means at the moment to do that. They would of course, be happy when the tensions could be increased at this point. About a real, a military side. I cannot see for the moment, but the intentions were rush. Thank you very much. Let me pass that straight on to daniel a small dover itself seems to downplay the transmit stand request saying it was a propaganda move, which is the west to now, how should the west respond . I think the west response should be mostly led to by the expectations of model, but here, because ultimately its about the super entity into retail, real, the integrity of, of the country. But however, if you take a look what could be the real strategic intentions of the kremlin and be with this move . This is obviously him during or the of us european accession process and, and also to influence the president ial elections, which will be upcoming during the spring and then disregard it. I think the european responses should also be those 2 fields being committed to the accession, accession altima except the accession process of molto. And it was to try to ensu