Transcripts For FBC Varney Company 20240713 : vimarsana.com

FBC Varney Company July 13, 2024

Good. Varney company is about to begin. David lets get right to your money and there is more of it. Markets expected to open higher as china cuts tariffs on 850 products. Come in, market watcher Keith Fitzgerald. Will we hit 29k or even 30k before the new year . What do you think . That is not as outrageous as it sounds. We are within striking distance of that. We got to have a good broad session, but the lack of headlines that are going to interfere with that is key. I think we will get there. David you think of what has happened in the past year and again, a lot of it had to do with the fed, wasnt necessarily because of trade policy, the fed was pushing up rates, that was pushing down the market, but 6,000 points since a year ago, and i think the bottom was actually more than 6,000 points, when you look at it today. What was happening then thats not happening now besides the fed . Well, i tell you what, this is a real testimony to the faith and inspiration and innovation that drives this country, because despite a raft of headlines that would have tanked markets a decade ago, people did what they were supposed to do. They concentrated on the future, they concentrated on a great economic number and bet on the right companies. Thats taken the market higher and now we have our sights on the future. I think thats good. David i think there was also some political indecision about what was going to happen with regard to the whole impeachment process. The fact that it has happened, that, you know, we still have to go through the senate trial, obviously, but nobody expects the president to lose in that battle, so hes going to emerge from that. Chances are as democrats go down further because of the impeachment, looks like the president s going to be reelected. That means more tax cuts and more deregulation. Well, it does. You know, impeachment in this case is more of an antiindicator than a panic indicator. Like the democrats, for example, hoped. Again, i think thats testimony to the spirit of the American People to what everybody is looking forward to going into 2020. David keith, we will come back to you in a minute but we want to check boeing because shares halted for news pending. We dont know anything just yet about exactly what is happening. Of course, this is premarket. Grady trimble is with us now. Grady, what can you tell us about whats happening with boeing . Reporter well, as of right now we know the shares are halted this morning. As for why its all speculation right now. We just have to wait to see what the news is. In the meantime, we wanted to talk about the starliner which landed safely back on earth yesterday in white sands, new mexico. Its mission sort of failed last friday after the spacecraft failed to reach the International Space station. The capsule was supposed to get into an orbit that it wasnt able to because of a timing error so now its back to work for boeing on that. They are trying to get the starliner ready for a manned mission and are playing catchup with spacex which has already gotten a capsule to the space station unmanned and now spacex, boeing both trying to get manned capsules to the space station. So this was a test mission. Its okay for things to go wrong, they said, in a test mission. They just have to fix it Going Forward and we will keep you updated on news about boeings stock. David grady trimble, good to see you. Thank you very much. Back to keith on boeing. What do you think . Do or die moment. I think this is one of those things where we could be looking potentially at a ceo change, maybe looking at production, maybe a major canceled order. Obviously all of this is speculation, but i think the stock potentially is in a world of hurt because this kind of stuff, a halt on a broadly based stock like that, is not normal. David i got to give you kudos on one stock in particular. Amazon. We were talking about it last year. Last year at this time, you said buy into it, dont believe the fearmongering. Its up 40 since your pick. Well, tell you what, thanks for remembering that, david. This is a tough business and when you get it right, its nice to have the validation. David good work, keith. Thank you very much. Well, the last saturday before christmas is called Super Saturday and its reportedly the biggest shopping day of the year. Joining us is gerald storch, former ceo of toys r us. How big was it . Well, it was big. Consumers have money, they are excited about the future, and they are spending what they have. Every report i have seen says the weekend was very very strong. And of course, ecommerce continues to thrive because they have extended those delivery windows. You can order today and get the product in many cases tomorrow online. If you arent doing well as a retailer in this environment, theres something wrong with your Business Strategy or overall direction. Youve got to change it. David a lot of those brick and mortars are doing pretty well, arent they . They are surprising the people that claim their demise was imminent. Theres a big gap between the ones who are doing it right and those who arent. David what are the ones who are doing it right, getting right . Two things. First, they are providing real value to the customer. People like walmart, target, costco, dollar general, they are doing great. Then secondly, they have incorporated ecommerce into their Business Models so they can deliver that product to you same day from their stores, or you can buy it online and pick up in the stores. Walmart is doing great at that, target is doing great at that. They have embraced the internet, brought it into their businesses and made those investments that are required to succeed and they have relevance because the value they offer and you get great deals on, you know, everyday items like grocery or health and beauty Care Products along with picking up apparel and electronics, et cetera, there. David thank you very much. We are going back to Keith Fitzgerald on draft kings. Is that right . Hold on. Keith, hang in there. Weve got news on boeing. Lauren boeing is announcing its board of directors announced their current chairman David Calhoun as ceo. This is leadership changes. It becomes effective january 13th of 2020. David its exactly what keith was saying might happen. Keith . Well, tell you what, Something Like this is logical because you have a Major Corporation that handled the crisis badly, didnt demonstrate how they were going to move past it, and its logical the board will want a clean slate because theres going to be a big mess they will have to deal with in order to put that company back on track. David they were producing 50 max planes every month in the time between the last crash and now. What do they do with that backlog . Thats a tremendous number, i believe, if im not mistaken, they have about 400 planes in backlog. They do, and they are parked all over the blasted place up here, when you taxi down the runway you see them everywhere. Normally a backlog would be good for a company because it means the Customers Trust it. David not if they are max jets. Exactly. I dont even want to fly on them. Heres the thing, right. Now youve got materials for an aircraft that if it is not approved, may never fly again. David what do you do with those planes . I remember the pictures of postworld war ii, rumors to the contrary, i wasnt there myself, but i do remember those pictures of those vast plane graveyards where you saw, you know, hundreds and hundreds of planes lined up, they were eventually broken up for scrap. Is that whats going to happen to these max jets . Well, tell you what, theyve got the potential to redo them. Structurally the plane is sound, they can insert new avionics, change up the cargo, do something with them. Breaking them up, i have a hard time seeing but they may never fly again in terms of passenger traffic. Thats again, a huge sunk cost, make or break moment for boeing. David what is the new ceo going to do regarding the confidence of consumers . I have no idea. But he has got a mess on his hands. Hes going to have to be reassuring. Hes going to have to get out there and fly. Hes going to have to spend time on the production floor. I would want to see a ceo that takes the reins, not sit back and lets everybody else do the dirty work. David what happens to the stock on the news . You see premarket activity, its holding steady, up about half a percentage point right now. My guess, not looking at my screen, since we are having this conversation, is that traders will bet this is a good thing. They will want to give the new ceo maybe a quarter, maybe quarter and a half, to put some numbers on the board. If he doesnt, the bottom will fall out. David again, this is premarket activity. We have no idea whether this will hold up when the bell rings. We will see what happens. Grady trimble has a little more now on whats happening with boeing. Go ahead. Reporter well, the Company Announced that this change is to provide better transparency and better communication. Thats something boeing has obviously struggled with since the grounding of the 737 max. So this new ceo, David Calhoun, will have his work cut out for him in terms of restoring that. Not just with investors but with customers who are planning to get back on these planes once they are back in service. I can tell you, Dennis Muilenburg is stepping down and i was at some of the congressional hearings earlier this year, and the families of the victims were incredibly unhappy with how he handled that, in particular he hadnt met with them until the hearings a couple of months ago, even though the crashes were several months earlier. So i think that this change in leadership gives boeing an opportunity to kind of have a fresh start Going Forward, and well see how the new ceo handles everything. But transparency is key here, with customers, with investors, and with the regulators, the faa, who is working to get this plane back online. David what was the final analysis of whether these tests, some of the test pilots, some have just done in virtual reality, wasnt actually done with the plane running but in some of the tests that were done on the ground with the planes guidance system, there were complaints by some of the pilots there. Was that seen as being unforgiveable or was it par for the course in tests like this or what . Reporter i think it depends who you ask. But the harshest critics will say that boeing should have done more to make pilots aware of the changes on the 737 max, compared to the previous version of that airline. So now Going Forward, boeing not only has to fix the issues with the plane that caused these two crashes, but they also have to make sure that pilots are aware of how everything operates when theyre taking it up into the air. David they also have to pay out a lot to the families of the victi victims, correct . Reporter yes. They have started a fund to do that. Whether money is enough to make up for Something Like these two crashes, you know, i would imagine that the families would say no. But yes, they do have a fund started and whether they are going to face lawsuits as a result is still tbd. David great stuff. Thank you. We still have Keith Fitzgerald with us. We remember those hearings in washington. It didnt appear to me, keith, i dont know whether your impression was different, that muilenburg really did well for himself and tried to make excuses for what happened with the max. No, he came off as very disconnected, very aloof. I wont say arrogant but i dont believe that sentiment was far away. He viewed himself as largely untouchable and he let his people handle it which i dont think you do. You want to as a leader, in Something Like that where Customer Trust is pivotal to what you do, if i were in that chair, the first thing i would have done is met with the families. David David Calhoun has clearly got a job on his plate right now that hes got to deal with. Its sort of useless to speculate how he does it, but what would you do in terms of trying to reassure the Customer Base . Would you eliminate max . Would you change the name . Would you get rid of those that backlog of planes or what . Tell you what, thats a very logical line of thinking. I would have to have more detail. But to me, a rebranding is good. A reavionicing which will be very expensive. You have to take those systems out and implement training worldwide because many pilots, particularly from foreign airlines, are trained instruments first, then visual flight rules. We are visual, then instruments, so you could argue the training is not consistent on that airframe. David im wondering about the stock now. It had this extraordinary runup over the term of Donald Trumps presidency. A lot of it had to do with some of the military contracts, et cetera. Does that rein in, do we see a steady slide in the stock . I think we are going to see not a steady slide, but we are certainly not going to see upside, unless again, the new ceo really establishes a clear path to profits and recovery. The military contracts are valuable, they arent going to go away, and thats the redeeming value in boeing if there is one at this point. David thank you very much, keith. We have on the phone with us ivan feinseth, a boeing analyst. Hes on the phone with us right now. I will throw it to you. The replacement of muilenburg, the ceo, with David Calhoun, does that stop the slide in the stock . What do you think . I think its a dramatic move. I think its overdue, unfortunately. It highlights the seriousness of the situation that they have got to move forward. Its going on a year. I think the announcement last week to halt production was a sign saying hey, we need to now address this. This is not a boeing problem. This is an everybody problem. It affects the airlines, it has affected consumers because of the loss of capacity, has caused a significant increase in the price of travel plane tickets, which luckily for the airlines, the economy is so strong and the consumer is willing to spend on travel that they didnt really see such a negative impact, but i mean, this is a significant situation, and this is boeings most important plane. Its their biggest seller. But they still are making and selling the 787 and 777 and getting a lot of, you know, renewal and new military contracts, which is also a big part of their business. But i think this is somewhat overdue. I think its a positive step as the market hates uncertainty. There was more and more uncertainty of muilenburgs ability to lead and stay in the position, so i think this is a big positive step forward. I think it will mark an upward move in the stock. David i mentioned to Keith Fitzgerald the fact we had 40 planes a month being built since the crash or since the last of the two crashes. That is a tremendous backlog. I know they still have orders for the plane but do they run a risk of having a lot of planes that they cant get rid of . No, throughout this whole problem theres been no cancellations because the Airline Industry is so capacityconstrained that they desperately need these new planes, and the fact theres a huge lead time. You cant just say i need a new plane and get one tomorrow, or just switch from boeing to airbus that quickly, because of the lead time. So they have been lucky that these planes are in such demand and there is such need for them that they didnt lose any orders. Im sure once the plane returns to service, what their goal is to ramp up from the 42 a month they are making or were making to the goal of 57 by stimulate next year. David stay with us for a second. I think keith is still with us. Keith fitzgerald. Could you chime in . Do you think it will be that easy to continue to sell these planes, particularly if they ramp up production . Tell you what, respectfully, i disagree very strongly at that. This opens the door for chinese aircraft makers. This opens the door for aircraft for airbus. The reason why i say that is because the airlines have adapted to taking this plane out of service. They are remarkably resilient in that capacity. They will find other ways and other airframes to use. To me, this is not an easy come, easy go situation. David you want to counter that, ivan . I disagree. Up until unfortunately the recent issue thats been a phenomenal plane and boeing really does focus on pilot ability. It is not designed not to interact with the pilot. They built planes with the understanding that pilots fly them are very experienced, they know how to handle these planes, and they will continue to focus on that. If there really was, in my view, a systemic issue, there would have been god forbid more crashes not more crashes, but more pilots complaining about the maneuverability of the plane, because when a pilot is flying a plane, if he has an issue, he needs to report back to say having an issue, i need to have the plane looked at david forgive me. We are looking at premarket activity. Its beginning to trade again. Again, this is premarket but the trading has continued. It has gone up since the announcement came out. They halted trading for a little bit but you can see its 1. 5 . Year over year it was up from a year ago but as i have been reminding viewers, everybody saw a recession coming a year ago and of course, they were dead wrong about that, but it did go up quite a bit after the december decision by the fed, the realization they had made a mistake and they turned things around, the market took off again. Its way down from its highs in januaryfebruary. Is it going to go back up to those highs, do you think . Yes, i think that this is a dramatic change and i think as soon as we get some clarity to when the plane will be certified and scheduled to be back in service, you can see the stock i think will be david well, it was 444 a share back i believe it was january or february. So that was 100 above what it is now. You dont think its going back up to those heights . At some point, yes. I think we will see new highs in the stock. If the situation is addressed, which they have been talking about sometime in january, i think that we will see a new alltime high in boeing. I have a buy on the stock. And i think that we will see a new alltime high. David keith, 446 is what it was on march 1st. Think of it.

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