Global pandemic. Lawmakers were told this week that the virus would continue to spread in this country and that the worst is yet to come. We will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now. How much worse well get will depend on our ability to do two things, to contain the influx of people who are infected coming from the outside, and the ability to contain and mitigate within our own country. Bottom line, its going to get worse. Paul dr. Borio, the former director for medical and biodefense preparedness policy at the white house, a position she left in 2019. Welcome, doctor. Appreciate you coming in. Thank you. Paul lets talk first about testing. This is a big issue of contention. Where do we stand now on the availability of tests for the coronavirus . So, testing is just now becoming more available. In addition to the Public Health lab testing, academic labs are beginning to test. The good news is that some private Developers Already have tests authorized for use, lap corps and quest being two of them and even more recently the great news i think is that the fda authorized these tests to be run on existing instruments that exist in many, many hospitals and some of these instruments can do high capacity testing. So all together, we should see an alleviat alleve alleviatie bottleneck that has been in place the last few weeks. Paul if you are an average american and have symptoms that you fear might be coronavirus, will we say within a week or so, will you be able to go into your Health Care Provider and get a test . Perhaps not so soon. Paul okay. Couple of weeks . We need we have to make up for some lost time. I think the prioritys going to be given for those that are highest risk or individuals who have an unexplained respiratory illness. Paul the most serious symptoms. Thats right. And some people already some states are implementing drivethrough testing for those individuals so that it can be expedited and minimize exposure to the whole health care system. Well see a rampup but its not going to be quite for the worried people that have not shown symptoms to go and get tests because its going to be a limited resource. Paul so they should stick to their houses, if they feel theyve been exposed maybe and just hunker down and wait and if they dont have symptoms, wait, if you do get serious symptoms, get tested. Or talk to your medical professional first to receive guidance. Paul all right. Sounds good. So do you have any sense of what kind of trajectory we might have here . It seems in italy, for example, in some parts of europe that have gone from nowhere to many, many cases very, very fast. Without tests here its hard to know. Whats your expectation . In a way, its really up to us. The virus has some very dangerous features that if its unattended to it will really continue to spread very rapidly and uncontrollably. There are so many steps that individuals and communities can take to flatten the curve. Paul this is flatten the curve of future cases. To slow the progression of the epidemic curve so a point where we can maintain operations of the health care system. So two basic measures are hygiene measures and social distancing measures. Paul hygiene are individuals. Individuals and also institutions. We can see that at this point many businesses are already improving their practice of cleaning surfaces more frequently. I rode the train yesterday, i could see it was very clean. [ laughter ] paul which is not always the case. Not always the case. Paul okay. And then social distancing, this is the phrase of the month. And were already seeing this take place with the closing down of big Public Events like basketball tournaments. Broadway has now closed down for at least a few weeks. Do you support these measures and should they be more extensive . These measures are essential at this moment, until the time point comes where the new cases wanes or we have a vaccine. Right now, these are the tools that we have. They are imperfect but highly valuable and highly effective if applied early. So i do support these measures and ive been moving ive been encouraged to see that government and private sector are working together to make the right decisions, to cancel Mass Gatherings and to encourage i worked in the 2009 h1n1. Paul okay. The pandemic. And theres a very different a difference in how we handled those measures back then. We understand they have a role to play, theyre helpful, beneficial. Theres Technology Today that can really support a lot of the workforce, not all, but a lot of the workforce to maintain the social distancing while keeping businesses open. So its very different than what it was like in 2009. Paul what kind of length are we talking about here for social distancing . Are we talking about a week . Are we talking about a month . Are we talking about two, three months . I think we need to be prepared that this is going to last for many, many more months. Paul many, many more months . Youre not going to have any big public gatherings for that long . Its possible that we are going to have to curtail those for that that long. Its a respiratory virus. Its easily transmitable. And if we do not apply these measures, its possible that well see a resurgence in the number of cases. Paul we want to prevent that kind of reser jens. We dont know yet, do we, whether it goes away in the summer months. We dont. Im hopeful that that might be the case. That it will alleviate some of the pressure if the weather has a beneficial impact on the trans transmisability so we flatten the curve with our actions, also due to the weather its a possibility. A lot of these viruses exhibit what we call seasonality. But its still to be determined. Paul thank you very much for coming in. Very helpful for our viewers. Appreciate it. When we come back, as President Trump attempts to calm an anxious nation, our panel weighs in on the administrations response to the Health Crisis so im your 70lb st. Bernard puppy, and my lack of impulse control, is about to become your problem. Ahh no, come on. I saw you eating poop earlier. Hey my focus is on the road, and thats saving me cash with drivewise. Whos the dummy now . Whoof whoof so get allstate where good drivers save 40 for avoiding mayhem, like me. Sorry hes a baby can we go get some ice cream . Alright, we gotta stop here first. 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Lets bring in wall street journal columnist, da dan henninger, kim strassel and bill mcgern. Dan, big speech by the president in the oval office where he tried to reassure americans. Did it accomplish that . I think it may have accomplished it. Between the time he gave it and the time people went to bed, but then thursday happened and we had this just extraordinary number of closings, sports leagues canceling, one after another, all day long. Institutions being shut down across new york city, across the country, the governor of ohio closing schools. I think by the end of the day thursday, the American People were pretty beaten down by the coronavirus psychologically. So i think it got to the point where the white house now i think has to consider whether there isnt a role for them to provide more daily leadership, guidance from the specialists that the president appointed, whether its mike pence, Anthony Fauci of the National Health institute, to reassure the American People where we are going at the moment from one day to the next. Paul the focus, the president in the speech really focused on travel bans and said this has been crucial to limiting the exposure here. But as dan suggested and as these closings show, i think the real danger here is the domestic spread now and in my view that speech really didnt address that adequately and the whole process of social distancing that were seeing and thats going to have to take place. Well, dan just said weve got to listen to the scientists. It was notable that Anthony Fauci was in front of congress this week and asked about the european travel ban, did point out that 70 of new infections worldwide are coming from europe and that about 30 of the states are dealing with infections because of people who had traveled from the couldnt then. So thats continent. Thats a real aspect. In that regard, fauci himself said the travel ban was merited. Youre talking about the fact of Community Spread now. Thats also alongside also a growing issue and that gets to the question of testing and seeing who is out there and then isolating them and trying to flatten that curve. Paul bill, what marks do you give the government kind of at large here so far . I mean, obviously the biggest mistake looks like in retrospect is the cdcs mistake on its test kits and not getting them out early enough. Yeah. I mean, look, i think they screwed that up and there will be other screwups. I think thats generally the way crisis works with government. The initial response, and i think in all this, dan was mentioning the day after all these closings happened, im not sure that was because the president didnt reassure them. We want people to socially isolate. The problem that we have is we dont know the risk because we dont know the real numbers. Dr. Fauci said that yesterday in testimony, one doctor was talking about 70 million, 150 million americans getting infected. Its a possibility. He said whatever model you have, you can get whatever results you want. Its kind of like the solutions are so broad now because we dont know the risk, its like applying for a mortgage and you dont know your salary or the price of the house. Paul do you think these decisions, which are huge, weve never had theyve ended whole sports seasons, theres essentially no sports going on, competition going on in the united states. Okay. Do you support this . Yes. Because i dont know what the better alternative is. People are i think in retrospect, we might find they were too broad and so forth. Paul you would rather see err on that side than see these people weigh the risks and do it themselves. Weve seen numbers flatten in china. We dont know, is that just the general pattern of the virus or is it because china took these drastic steps to contain it. Paul dan . Well, you know, part of the problem here is there is a kind of panic that has set in about the coronavirus. Paul right. And theres a sense at which people are equating it with the bbubonic plague where everybody died. Most people are not going to die if they get the coronavirus. The at risk population is older people and those with underlying illnesses. The issue is, what is the rate of infection. How many people in that atrisk population could conceivably end up dying. And we dont know what the answer to that is. For the rest of the country, these athletes, younger people, they will get sick, two weeks later they will get better, then they will have immunity. I think maybe that sort of thing has to be better explained by the government. Were doing all this to try to prevent the risk in the case that the mortality rate turns out to be very high. We just dont know yet. But most people are not going to die from this virus. Paul kim, do you think the white house needs to do more, not necessarily the president , but mike pence, just to educate the public about the extent of this . Oh, absolutely. Look, i want to give credit, andrew cuomo, the governor of new york, hes been doing daily briefings. The guy is very calm. He made the point that dan just made, saying look, for 80 of people theyll selfresolve when they have this issue. We need to figure out who has it so we can protect vulnerable populations. We need to get statistics and numbers from the white house on a daily basis too. Paul thanks, kim. When we come back, a roller coaster ride on wall street as the markets react to coronavirus fears. A closer look at the longterm Economic Impact and what washington can do about it, next. You wouldnt accept an incomplete job from anyone else. So why accept it from your allergy pills . Flonase relieves your worst symptoms which most pills dont. Get allinone allergy relief for 24 hours, with flonase. Stays at choicehotels. Com and earn a free night. Because when your business is making the most of it, our business is you. Book direct at choicehotels. Com do you recall, not long ago we would walk on the sidewalk all around the wind blows we would only hold on to let go blow a kiss into the sun we need someone to lean on blow a kiss into the sun all we needed somebody to lean on all we need is someone to lean on [ fastpaced drumming ] this vast Economic Prosperity gives us flexibility, reserves and resources to handle any threat that comes our way. This is not a financial crisis. This is just a temporary moment of time that we will overcome together as a nation and as a world. Paul a volatile week on wall street as coronavirus fears bring an end to the longest ever bull market for u. S. Stocks. Investors worried about the toll that a growing list of shutdowns, closings and cans considerations will take on the cans lagses will take on the cancellations will take on the u. S. Economy. Thanks for coming in, jason. Thanks for having me. Paul the market is repricing growth prospects, no question. Thats right. Paul are we looking at a recession. I think the chances are probably better than 50 50 that you do get a recession. I would say the size tha of the stimulus you get will probably determine how deep it goes. Right now, my own opinion is that theres a good chance it will be vshaped where you get a better than expected rebound in the second half of the year or the Fourth Quarter but i do think paul for the next two quarters. For the next two quarters you have pretty severe shutdown of the economy and something that looks like a recession. It could snap back quickly if appropriate measures are taken by the federal government. Paul i think for anybody who was alive in 2008, the comparison is uh, oh, are we there again. This time, going in the circumstances were different. Banks are better capitalized, corporations have pretty good cash reserves and the consumer was feeling good. So that helps us kind of plow through this . Theres no two ways about it the worst thing you could say about the consumer going into this, it almost couldnt have gotten much better. Unemployment rate was low, wages were rising, you have a strong had a strong stock market, savings rate was actually quite high and you add to that Lower Oil Prices and pickup in refi activity, all of those things should bolster the consumer as we go throughout the next couple months. And the consumers going into this in a strong way. The Banking System as you mentioned, if anything is overcapitalized and one of the things i would argue in terms of some sort of response here would be easing some of the capital requirements. Paul so they can do more lending . Yeah. The problem is, you have all this money, the cap pal requirements are such that its difficult to get the money into a place where the banks feel comfortable lending it. I would argue that more regulatory easing on the part of banks, for banks, would be appropriate. Paul where do you see potential financial weaknesses, i mean, that could create some systemic problems . I think the oil patch is one, obviously, with the collapse in prices. But where else . Do you worry about Corporate Bonds . Do you worry about muni bonds. One of the issues with keeping rates so long for so long, you created an everyone gets a trophy cost of capital, a private equity boom. In some ways, im more worried about the nonbank banks. Paul they dont have capital requirements. Theyre largely unregulated. The regulated entities are in great shape, the somewhat nonregulated entities, youre not quite sure, not sure where the bodies are buried. That worries me a little bit. Its large enough so it can. I think its clear a lot of private companies are drawing down revolving credit lines, the money markets will be tested. Paul lets talk about the response, Federal Reserve came in with liquidity for the treasury markets this week, next week is their meeting. What do you want to see from the fed. I want them to see ease aggressively. Paul theyre already at 1 . The problem is, paul, is that if financial conditions tighten enough, the fed almost has no choice. You cant have a situation where the fed funds rate is above the 10 year treasury yield. Thats an implicit tightening. I take no pleasure in this. I would be all for riding this out. But i would say this is a time where you probably want to the cost of overreacting are quite low compared to under reacting. Paul i know the market suggests its going to be close to zero. Expect that. Paul should they open up liquidity facilities, authority, so all comers can come with good collateral. In my opinion, again, the risks of underreacting are so much greater than the risk