Transcripts For FBC The Claman Countdown 20240713 : vimarsan

FBC The Claman Countdown July 13, 2024

This number, down 664 points, for a loss of about 8. 5 . Crude oil at the moment, it has been vicious and quite a violent downside move, even after the ones last week that were very ugly. We see crude oil setting at 28. 70 but in the aftermarket, we are just above 29. Call it straddle. We are right at 29 a barrel. We have major developments this afternoon putting even heavier pressure on the markets. Canada moves to close its borders and the nations airlines are seeking up to 50 billion in aid to support the massive plunge in bookings as of course, social distancing affects all forms of travel. In this hour, we do expect that live News Conference held by the white house by the Coronavirus Task force. 3 15 p. M. Eastern, 14 minutes away, as you heard. We understand the secret service has now started taking temperatures of those in attendance. Heres a couple questions we at countdown want to know. Will we see more stimulus announced . Will the status of the nations airports change at all . Will the white house announce that checks are on the way to taxpayers at every level . We will take you there as soon as it happens and watch the markets every step of the way to see if theres any blunting of what appears to be quite a sledge hammer to most stocks. Team fox business is ready for you in this crucial hour. Andy brenner will decipher the Warning Signals he sees in the bond market. Top traders from trading headquarters to home offices on the struggling airlines. Delivery names, financials and more, are enduring and what they are trying to deal with. Peter schiff on why gold is veering from its normal trading pattern and selling off. And an oil guru on which names in the oil sector might be hit with liquidity triggers and debt covenants. At this hour, we do know this. As u. S. Airlines are trying to work out a dollar figure for a u. S. Government bailout, they are hacking away at capacity, slicing away a huge number of flights. American airlines is up 4 . It has suspended nearly all longhaul International Flights and is cutting capacity 75 , not just for the next two weeks, but a year over year basis. Virgin atlantic which is majority owned by delta, cut its schedule by 80 beginning march 26th. Delta airlines for the moment is down 7 . United says it will book 1. 5 billion less in revenue for the month of march compared to last year. Ual is down 16 , getting hit very hard. We should look at jetblue. Its down just about 4. 8 . To boeing stock. Boeing of course has been making the planes that all of these airlines buy. That stock is the plunge of the day when it comes to related stories here, down 19. 8 , on top of previous losses essentially erasing all gains recorded during ousted ceo Dennis Muilenburgs time at the aircraft maker. The stock had soared more than 136 during his three and a half years there. All of it now gone. Boeings fiasco with the grounded 737 max that stretched on for more than a year now and of course, the airlines woes are weighing heavily on the stock which stands at 136. 47. Finally, lets ls look at some temporary store closings. They are closing in a bid to stop the coronavirus spread. Apple shuttering all 460 Retail Stores outside of china. They will do this for two weeks to start. Nike will shut down all its stores by march 27th. Lululemon, levi strauss. Lulu is getting slaughtered down 18. 9 . Urban outfitters down 14 . We want to get the financials here to illustrate how dangerous it is to try and call a bottom in financials. If you thought fridays rally where they were all up signaled that it was time to start buying, heres how much you are down at this hour if you had bought some of the bigger names on that day. Jpmorgan down 12. 9 . Citi losing 17 . Bank of america and Morgan Stanley down 13 a piece. Heres how investors who got hyperbullish beyond just buying the stocks are faring. Let me get to this one. Tea these are people who were very bearish on this. Whatever the financials were moving lower, what would happen, you multiply that by three. That etf is up 31 . The ticker is faz. Now, its mirror image, those who were getting hyper excited about the financials and pouring into them, flip that over into fas. Its getting torched. Quarter to date it is down 70 . Can we get that up . I will get it up on my screen. Its down about 31. 6 . Whats in there . Everything from jpmorgan to fidelity to berkshire hathaway. Heres the fac, down 31. 5 . Anybody who got way too bullish here, thats whats happening because this is a basket of financials. Now lets talk about the skeptics. We are watching why the financials are struggling so much. As we look at some of these names and talk about the money thats being lost, 24 hours after the fed slashed bank lending rates to zero, how much worse or better could the picture get for big banks . Lets bring in andy brenner, widely followed on wall street and main street to decipher what really might be happening. We are also joined by peter schiff, here to explain why the traditional gold trade as a safe haven is not behaving as it normally would. Andy, i want to get to you first. Taking rates down to zero caused shock but no awe in a positive sense. Stocks are cratering again. Why . Liz, the one thing the markets didnt need are lower rates. Lower rates do nothing. But im not giving up on the fed just yet. I think they put a lot of provisions in there to enhance liquidity. They started to buy mortgages, which mortgages had been lagging. When i left, my Mortgage Team told me mortgages had tightened about two points today. I think thats going to be good for housing. They also pretty much gave you unlimited supply in repo and dropped the Bank Reserve Requirements that banks have to hold against their deposits. I think theres a lot of good things and i dont think the fed is done yet. I think the fed will do more liquidityenhancing things. They are done lowering rates. No, they are not going to negative rates. This is where we stand. Why is the market reacting so badly . Two weeks ago, 14 days ago, when you had me on, the fed had just cut 50. The market performed horribly. What did the fed do . They did the same thing again. But im not giving up on the fed just yet, whereas last time i was pretty upset because they did nothing about liquidity. This time i think they are doing a lot. I think we need fiscal stimulus along with that and you know what, you dont know when the end of the coronavirus is going to be. Down here in austin, everythings closing left and right. My family tells me everything in new yorks closing. Im sure you are seeing it as well. We havent bottomed yet. Look at the chinese numbers. Retail sales last night were supposed to be down 2 or 3 . They were down 20 . Production was down 13. 5 . These are the kind of numbers we will see. We will see a cratering of numbers. We need fiscal stimulus and we need it now. Liz im not sure if the fed has any more answers. Peter, the fed has pulled out the overnight bank lending rate, added another 500 billion tonight, its pulled out the helicopters, the cargo planes, but the war is not at the feds doorstep, is it . Why is gold behaving so strangely . I would have completely thought gold would be higher, not only is it not higher, it now looks to go below 1500 an ounce. Its just 4 above that. Whats going on . Explain. First of all, the fed sowed the winds and we will reap the whirlwind. Theres nothing they can do. Fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus will only make the problem worse, as i mentioned on this show last year when i said the fed was going to go back to zero and relaunch quantitative easing. Its not going to work this time to prop up the stock market or the economy. All that money is going into the supermarket, not the stock market. Its grocery prices that are going up, not stock prices. As far as gold is concerned, gold is actually holding up very well. Its barely down today compared to the stock market. Year to date, gold is only off about 2 compared to 26 for the dow. The big difference is the dow is going much lower. This bear market is just getting started. Gold is about to explode higher. People are going to figure out all we are doing is printing money. People have to support the government. The government cant support the people because the government doesnt have any money. It only has what it takes from the people. We cant just keep sending people checks to make up for their lost incomes or pay their bills because the money isnt there. All we are going to do is create yeah. Liz i just want to keep this to some of the way the metals are actually behaving. If we bring up palladium, for example, palladium is in catalytic converters and all you have to do, folks, its not hard to triangulate this. Palladium in catalytic converters for cars, then you look at the cars and look at ford, if we can bring those up, and ford at the moment is down 10 . Its a 5. 01 stock at the moment. General motors, down 12 , a 21. 75 stock. The list goes on. Tesla is also which probably doesnt have palladium, im not sure about that, but they dont have catalytic converters, is down 14 . Talk about the psychology of the consumer here. Yeah. Well, first of all, all the Industrial Metals are going down and going down hard in terms of gold because we are headed into a massive recession. This recession is going to be much worse than the Great Recession of 08 that followed the bursting of the housing bubble. This is a far bigger credit bubble than the one we had back then. Its not just the mortgage lenders that need a bailout. Its the entire economy. Everybody is leveraged to the hilt thanks to the fed. This is a much deeper financial crisis. Yes, a lot of these prices are going down now. They are going to go ballistic when all this new money hits the economy. The problem is theres a supply shortage, a shortage of goods. We dont need more money. We dont need more paper. Thats what we are going to get. We will get money created out of thin air. Liz im looking at the tenyear yield. This morning i was like this is interesting, its at. 82 . Now im looking at it, that bond yield has plunged. Its at. 736 . Explain to people exactly whats going on. You had said the fed might have to sorry, you had said the record lows would be tested, it was. 39, i believe. How much lower do we go with these treasuries . What does that say for that safe haven . Im not a big fan of owning long treasuries right now. I think the low was set at 31 basis points last week, 70 basis points on the long bond. What i see it doing, the only thing i see happening over the next few weeks is fiscal stimulus. Fiscal stimulus, the way to pay for fiscal stimulus is to issue debt. We have suggested the our client base, we have suggested to our friends in washington, two years ago, schumer came to the president and said how about a trillion dollar infrastructure program. The president said why not two. You issue a 2 trillion infrastructure program, sell it, fund it with 40year debt at probably 1. 5 or 1. 75 or wherever you fund it, you are going to have a huge, huge uptick in the economy, a much better outcome. People will start looking six months out rather than looking six weeks out, because six weeks out looks horrible. Liz stand by, guys, please. We are watching these numbers very closely. We are also watching the lower right hand screen here. The briefing is imminent for the White House Coronavirus conference. We will take you straight there live as soon as that happens. Keeping an eye on markets here, we do have both the dow and nasdaq down 9 . They have been fluctuating down 7 , 8 , 9 depending on the minute you are looking at these. The russell 2,000, the small caps down 11 at this hour. Im checking the transports here, also taking an outsized hit, down about 10. 25 while the volatility index, if we can show some of these on the screen here, up about 33 . Thats the fear index. That looks to be at around 77. 38 at the moment. I want to focus on oil as we walk up to this News Conference. Oil prices falling below 29 a barrel earlier in the aftermarket. We are just nine pennies above that. What we are seeing is that the oil markets are plumbing prices not seen in years. S p Ratings Agency has sliced exxonmobils rating from whats called aa plus to aa. The outlook they are giving it is negative. S p ratings are saying it will get another downgrade if the oil giant does not improve its cash flow. The stock is down 6. 7 . As this very broadbased selloff spills well beyond the oil patch, lets get to the floor show. When i say floor show, im putting an asterisk. Teddy weisberg is not on the New York Stock Exchange floor. Hes joining us via skype. Denton is in atlantic highlands, new jersey. Scott bauer from cme headquarters but not in the open trading pits which closed for the foreseeable future this past friday. Gentlemen, i apologize in advance if i interrupt you, if we see that News Conference happen. Scott, im looking at the russell getting creamed. Transports, soft commodities, Meal Delivery company blue apron up 38 but what else do you see . Where do you see this . You know what, i actually was seeing some bids come in earlier, maybe a couple hours ago, in some of the big banks, jp actually, which had been down lower earlier. Goldman sachs earlier. But you know what, they are few and far between and any bid thats coming into the space regardless of where it is is getting hit immediately with sell orders here. Let me just say something. Its still not a panic market. We are seeing the vix up 30 . You and i talked about this about a week ago. I pointed out to the viewers that when the market, when the s p was moving about 6 a day, that did not justify a vix trading around 50. 6 justifies the vix trading around 80. The two have now finally converged. They were apart. They have now converged. What does that mean . I think that means that we are not going to see the wild, manic moves moving forward. We may see 5 , 7 days in the next few days here. I do think we are going to start consolidating here. That is a good thing, in my opinion for the overall market. Liz denton, what is worrisome to us is even as the u. S. Announced it will buy 77 Million Barrels of crude to place in the Strategic Petroleum reserve in the country, the price of oil is still falling. Who is most vulnerable here . We saw the downgrade with exxonmobil but we have been watching apache as well. Some of the smaller producers online in west texas and north dakota, those seem to be in most trouble. This all stems from the kind of standoff between russia and saudi arabia and the difference between now and other demand shocks we have had in the past is that we have a demand shock and supply shock at the same time, whereas demand is responding to coronavirus and then you also have production that is kind of moving on unabated. Again, it looks like we will have more pressure on prices. Hopefully we kind of coalesce around this upper 20s, low 30 area but again, a lot has been happening the last week or so. We will keep an eye on how things go. Last week, wti low of 27. 34. Today it dropped down to 26 and change. Liz this is obviously an irrational market. It doesnt matter that some stocks are on 20 sale, they are on 50 , 60 , 70 sale. Investors are running the other way. You are calling for an effort to slow down carnage and volatility by reimposing the short sale tick rule now. Explain how that would help. Well, i think that quietly was taken away 10 or 12 years ago and i remember talking to all of my clients and saying stocks will never, ever trade the same way again. The issue or the reason why the tick rule was so important, put into place with the securities act of the early 30s after the crash of 29, it basically, it doesnt eliminate short selling. Nothing wrong with short selling. But it does prevent short sellers from hitting bids rather than offering to sell stocks short on plus ticks. The plus tick basically slows the carnage down because it keeps stocks from going down liz you think [ inaudible ], teddy . Liz, i have been pounding the drums about this for 12 years. There were no listeners, nobody cares. I dont think theres anybody in washington that cares. Im not sure theres anybody around anymore that even knows what the tick rule is. I wish they did, though. Liz heres the thing. Scott, do you think the s. E. C. And the people who make these types of decisions will reinstate this just to put a floor under this very irrational, violent market . Teddy is one of the smartest men i know in the marketplace. I know the traders here on the floor, people that have been down here for a very long time. Unfortunately, i dont see it happening. I do think it would be a phenomenal idea right now for ten days, 30 days, whatever it is. Put it in place. Is it going to cure everything, no. Will it slow things down like teddy said . Absolutely. Liz what do you think, denton . Youve got to tell me as we look at the airline stocks, nobodys flying, there isnt a lot of demand. Actually, hold that thought. We are seeing the Coronavirus Task force enter here. It does not appear President Trump for the moment is there, nor Vice President pence. We do see dr. Anthony fauci, who has very much been a beacon of truth among a lot of rumors and a lot of misinformation. I dont so tee the vice preside. Quickly, with no demand from the airlines and people not driving, how far yeah, thats the Million Dollar question there, what happens with jet fuel demand. You are already seeing the data. Gasoline demand is being a little slow. Some of the marketers i have been talking to have said particularly in the midatlantic have seen an uptick in gasoline demand in the short term. I think thats similar to when we have a smoestorm. Liz i got to interrupt you. Heres President Trump. Im glad to see you are practicing social distancing. That looks very nice. Thats very good. I want to thank everybody for being here today. This morning i spoke with the leaders of the g7, g7 nations, and they really had a good meeting. It was a very very productive meeting. I also spoke with our nations governors. This afternoon we are announcing new guidelines for every american to follow over the next 15 days. As we combat the virus, each and every one of us has a Critical Role to play in stopping the spread and transmission of the virus. We did this today, this was done by a lot of very talented people, some of whom are standing with me. An

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