Anastasia ogrady. Daniel well its not exactly clear whats behind it. Obviously people are being infected. People who have coronavirus are transmitting it to others and there are things we can correlate with, it could be the protests that, indeed, happened all over the country for the last month. These were people in close proximity to one another, in los angeles, texas, florida, other states, it could be the number of people who have gone to restaurants, bars without masks and despite new infections do involve younger people, not the older Vulnerable People above the age of 70 who tend to be have the highest death rates. Some of the younger people are being hospitalized not too many of them are dying. The case rate is very high, the case numbers are high. The death numbers are not high, if you look across the states they remain very flat, so at the moment the surge seems to be located, paul, mainly in the younger population who has quite frankly been exposing themselves to one another without masks and probably infecting each other. Paul so jason, the dans point is interesting about the death, what we are seeing big rise in cases, but not the explosion in deaths that we sawn the east coast in march or april . Jason we are starting to see rise in hospitalizations which could prefigure a rise in deaths but not as extreme as the raw case numbers suggest, so as dan said that would have to do with the age of people being infected. Some people speculated that the virus may have changed somewhat and also probably hospitals are Getting Better at treating it. Paul yeah, they do seem to be Getting Better at treating and instead of putting people early on ventilators, they are applying oxygen through other means and plus some of the drug cocktails that are used, jason, seem to be making a difference. Yeah, remdesivir and others have shown promising results and all of this sort of changes the risk somewhat. And even as protestors did not get the virus, seems to me that the country took their eye off the ball, stopped writing about coronavirus and emphasis seemed to be elsewhere and people got the impression, well, i dont actually have to be so careful. Paul and mary, so the lockdowns beginning, some of them in at least some states appearing back, the reopening, pausing, do you think that is justified here in some of these states . Mary i think each state has to sort of look at the progression of the onus locally but i think its very important to remember that this is not a second wave despite all the media hysteria. This is a very contagious illness in the very beginning back in march, most experts said that a large number of the populations would indeed, get the illness and would spread easily and there would be very little we could do. A lot of places had large track and new york experienced first and unfortunately the other localities are learning from new yorks decision in particular putting covid19 patients in nursing homes. Theres intervention earlier, the people are younger and if you listened to anthony fauci, what hes worried about is not as much the spread but hes worried that young people who get it will somehow transmit it to older people and people with core morbidity. We need to protect those people who are vulnerable but its pretty widely accepted acceptede cannot close down the economy. I would go so far to say that it was a mistake closing down some of the economies and we are paying a very high price for that in new york anyway. Paul dan, one of the things i dont quite get is subversion of wearing masks, even if masks help to reduce spread of the virus, why not wear them . Seems to me to make perfect sense as a precaution . Daniel yeah, i thought about this a fair amount and i agree, its not so much the physical effect thats real but the psychological effect. When people see a surge in cases like this they begin to worry and wonder whether they can go back to work, open large offices and such and i think the fact that if the masks were worn, if the case incidents could fall that would have an extraordinarily positive psychological effect on allowing the economy to continue to reopen. Paul all right, thank you all, appreciate it. When we come back, record jobs report as u. S. Employers hire 4. 8 Million People in june. So just how fast is the economy coming back and will the recent rise in coronavirus cases affecc as a caricature artist, i appreciate what makes each person unique. Thats why i like liberty mutual. They get that no two people are alike and customize your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. Almost done. What do you think . I dont see it. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Todays announcement proves that our economy is roaring back. Its coming back extremely strong. We have some areas where we are putting out the flames of the fires and thats working out well. 80 of Small Businesses are now open, 80 , and with think we are going to have very good numbers in the coming months because others are opening. Paul President Trump thursday touting junes strong jobs numbers claiming the economy is roaring back from the coronavirus shutdowns and will only get better from here. U. S. Employers added record 4. 8 million jobs in june and the Unemployment Rate fell to 11. 1 as the job market improved for a second straight month. We are back with Dan Henninger, Mary Anastasia ogrady, so mary, i looked at this report from top to bottom and i kept looking for some bad news, it was hard to find it, pretty good report. Mary you know me, paul, i can always find the bad news. Paul yes, i know, mary. [laughter] mary it was a very good report and coupled with that you had good numbers on the index that studies manufacturing for the month of june, Consumer Confidence up, but i would remind you that we are still 15 million jobs short of what we had. Paul well, whats the reason behind this, mary, seems to me the biggest single factor is reopening, thats whats really driving this . Mary yes, what i found interesting was hospitality and retail were some of the biggest gainers and, of course, hospitality were really just chipping away there because in the area of travel and entertainment and so forth most important are Still Holding back but thats where there was really strong job growth. Along with retail, the consumer wanted to go out and go shopping and they had money in their pockets because they werent able to do it for a couple of months, so they were ready to go. Paul jason, one of the things that supports the case that reopenings are the big driver here is that jobless claims in the states that reopened early like arizona and florida and texas have been much lower as share of workers in midjune than they were than in new york, for example, where 17 and a half percent of workers still applied for Unemployment Benefits in midjune compared to under, i think, it was 7. 6 in arizona. 9. 9 in texas. Jason yeah, i think theres no question that lockdowns as you would expect reduce employment. People dont go work. I think the only question Going Forward is are those states that came out of their lockdowns going to see a surge that makes them lock down again. Its a difficult needle for the governors to thread keeping the economy afloat as possible without need to go move backward. Paul the critics to have report say its a false dawn, basically all going to go back, we are going to get record unemployment again because of these new the new surge and yet we are not locking down again, the states arent as strongly as most did in in march and april. Jason yeah, i think thats right. I dont i dont think the next month we will see another huge surge. I do think the idea that the recovery is v shaped all the way is overoptimistic. I think itll be v shaped for a little while and the curve will flatten out. Theres no question that the rate of opening up best politically possible is the big driver. Paul dan, any surprises . Number one to me was that local hiring, local government hiring, 57,000 increase much of it in education. That suggests to me that maybe federal governments arent as strapped as as they suggest. States had a modest decline in unemployment but local governments didnt. Daniel no, there really wasnt the bloodletting that people were talking about through this period, and, you know, inevitable the numbers will be politicized and so i think we have to talk about politics. The reality is i think President Trump can take some credit for this, the first 3 years of his presidency did result in an extraordinarily strong and dynamic economy both in job creation and in the economy itself and i think that is really primarily the reason why we are seeing this comeback being a strong as it was, the economy was put in a coma but it was far from dead. It had something really solid to build on. You can politicize that if you want and say theres a false down out there or clouds on the horizon but i think the average american is probably pretty happy to see these employment numbers coming back as strong as they are. Its good for everybody. Paul mary, what does this tell you about another phase for package, another 3 trillion, 2 trillion in Government Spending . Mary i think that the republicans have been right to hold off on that and wait and see how things unfold. Again, this is not a second wave. This is a normal continuation of the virus and by the way, oil traded above 40 a barrel last week, First Time Since march, very good sign because thats a demand problem and if the Permian Basin thats extremely bullish for the country. Paul all right, thank you all, when we come back as the 2020 president ial race heads into the summer stretch, karl rove says the Trump Campaign needs to hit reset. He will tell us why next. I dont want to jinx myself. I know the polling data is very good but i think its really early, much too early to make any judgment. I think we have a whole lot more work to do [ thunder rumbles ] [ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know theres a 30minute limit, right . Tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, theres progressive. [ beeping ] vo at whether on the track,that exhor the everyday drive. Ty, today, that philosophy extends to how we connect with you. We call it, audi at your door. Whether a remote test drive, shopping, tradein, or even service pickup, audi at your door can do this and more at participating dealers. The premium audi dealership experience, on your terms. Audi at your door. Month after month as other leaders in other countries took the necessary steps to get the virus under control, donald trump failed us. Month after month as many of us urged him to step up and do his job he failed us. Paul former Vice President joe biden this week at press conference in wilmington, delaware slamming President Trump for his response to the coronavirus. The Presumptive Democratic nominee taking questions from reporters for the first time in almost 3 months outlining his approach to combating the pandemic, weighing in on the debate over the removal of statutes and monuments and saying he can hardly wait to compare his capability to President Trump. Lets bring in wall street journal columnist karl rove, served to george w. Bush. Karl, good to see you, first of all, what do you make of joe bidens performance, he came out of hibernation, the press gave him good marks. Karl it took him 3 months to have News Conference and maybe we will have to wait another 3 months before he has his next one. They obviously had him rested, prepared and ready for it and he came across quite well, i thought. Paul well, then, what do you make of his strategy . He has been basically building a 10point lead in hibernation in basement. I guess the question is if your youre winning, why change . [laughter] karl reappear in another couple of months. Look, hes had the advantage of being off the stage so the light while we have gone through a pandemic, while weve gone through an economic recession, while weve gone through, you know, a rocking recovery from the pandemic with fits and start, hes been off the camera and the camera has been pointed straight at donald trump and the lights have been hot and they have singed the president. 4 to 5 points and being behind by almost 10 pointed to that the real clear politics average. Its because the focus has been on the president and the president has been himself reacting to events, no strategy, no theme, no thought about the narrative that he wanted to develop and hes suffered accordingly. Paul you said in yo column the president needs to reset. We talked a little bit last week about what what that would entail. I didnt see any signs of that this week. Karl no, i dont think the white house has got a reset. Its doing a reset. My sense is they recognize that theyve got to do something to sort of change the narrative and i suspect theyll do that. Maybe its going to be the visit to mount rushmore. I doubt it. Has to be more substantive. My sense is they recognize that they do need to hit the reset button and have something significant policy statement and or a significant change in tone in order to to convince the press that its time for them to get out of the barrel. Thats one of the 3 things they have to do and the easiest to do. The other 2 are more difficult which are beginning to offer and being prepared by the time of the National Convention to offer a comprehensive secondterm agenda and beginning now to draw contrast between President Trump and Vice President biden on issues that really matter to the American People and doing so in a sustained focus, deliberate way that gains attention from the swing voters who are up for grabs in the election. Paul when you talk about a contrast between the two, the main contrast they seem to be drawing is personal, they are saying that joe biden is weak, they are saying that he has diminished capacity, so they are making a personal contrast between joe biden on those and the president s energy and so on. Im not so sure in fact, i dont think thats going to be enough. What do you think what do you think about that . Karl i agree with you. Look, if Vice President biden has difficulty stringing together two sentences, let that sort of emerge on its own. Dont be pointing a lot. You are lowering expectations for him in the debate. What happens if those expectations are so low that even the mediocre performance seems to beat him. Id stop talking about that. I would talk about concrete differences and weakness might be one of them, for example, Vice President biden said when i hear America First, i hear america alone. Well, thats a big opening. If President Trump went after Vice President biden, of course, i expect to hear that from a guy who is part of an administration that, quote, led from behind. The Vice President of an administration in which the president went on an international apology tour. Let me tell you what i mean by America First, what i mean looking out for american jobs, american families, American Workers first. What i mean by America First is we are going to lead and when our allies arent doing their fair share im not going to lead from behind or be afraid of setting the card, i will get in their face and say its time for them to meet their obligations. When we deal with people like russia, im the guy who has been tough on russia and hes the guy who has been weak. There are some opportunities been given on a regular basis, the question is whether the campaign is going to have a deliberate plan of action to focus on those weaknesses in a way that builds comprehensive narrative about the person that they want to the person that they want to beat and the person they are running against. Im with you, he has diminished mental capacity, thats not going to be a winner. Thats an issue of its own because of performance publicly or its not. Paul thank you, karl, gate to see you, still ahead lawmakers demand answers amid reports that russia offered bounties to afghan militants for killing u. S. Soldiers. Should President Trump have been briefed . We will ask general jack keane next. Oh, we love our new home. Neighborhoods great. Amazing school district. The hoa has been very involved. These shrubs arent board approved. You need to break down your cardboard. Thank you. Violation. Violation. I see youve met cynthia. 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