Transcripts For FBC The Claman Countdown 20240712 : vimarsan

Raleighdurham. The president is about to step out of that plane. I can tell you right now, we are going to be there with cameras because back in d. C. , theres another huge story developing. The congressional antitrust sharks are circling. In less than 48 hours, jeff bezos of amazon, apples tim cook, google alphabets Sandar Pichai and mark succeed you azu facebook will be the ones in hot water. It is the First Time Ever that all four will simultaneously be taken to task by law makers. If congress is smart, okay, i know, if congress were smart, they would get suggested questions from this guy. Basecamp cofounder and chief technology officer. He hes the only one who has taken on three of the four and lived to tell about it. He will reveal the number one question he says congress should ask each of those tech titans that he says will cause crumbling. Plus, could a new u. S. china ticking time bomb threaten social medias hottest name . China economic insider derek scissors gives his threat assessment for tiktok. Is gold shining or as i just asked charles, flashing a very bright warning light . At first it was bad news for the marlins fans. Then phillie and yankee fans. Whos next in the covid domino effect . One team has just boarded a plane out of dodge. Less than an hour to the closing bell, lets start the claman countdown. Breaking news. Novavax stock right now is moving higher just as President Trump is disembarking from air force one at raleighdurham International Airport in North Carolina. You can see the door opening right there. Heres what the president will be doing. He is going to tour a facility where key elements of a potential covid19 vaccine from the drug maker are being developed. U. S. Awarded the bill gatesbacked biotech 1. 6 billion to mass produce a treatment under its operation warp speed program. The same program awarded rival moderna just under a billion dollars. Now, speaking of warp speed, you can look at modernas stock. At last check it was jumping about 9 after it announced its vaccine could be ready for widespread use by year end after the drug maker said it is ready to start a 30,000 subject trial. Under the government program, moderna, whose stock by the way has jumped 103 year to date, is the first to reach a late stage study. All right. To our pop and drop stocks. Under armour going to need body armor after getting a dreaded wells notice from the securities and exchange commission. The stock right now has reversed. Its back up about 1. 5 . It was down in the premarket by way more but it has since found its footing at the moment. A wells notice which notifies recipients of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the company was also sent to the athletic wear founders kevin plank and current executive cfo david bergman. In question are the companys Accounting Practices in 2015 and 2016, and whether under armour shifted sales from quarter to quarter to make those sales appear more robust. Under armour says no way. They will defend themselves vigorously. How many people does it take to make a mercedesbenz . It may be a lot fewer if Automotive News europe is correct that the german automaker could eliminate as many as 30,000 jobs and seven cars cut from its u. S. Lineup. Daimler stock is up 2 with encouragement they might be tightening up the Balance Sheet and getting their financial house in order. Mercedes rival bmw coming out with a fully electric version of its 5 series. Right now bmw is up. 33 . The news does not seem to be slowing down elon musks dance steps at this hour. Teslas stock continuing its run higher. Its up 7 right now. Guess what 7 means for tesla . Thats 98 increase. The stock right now at 1515 and change per share. We have to talk about nikola because thats jumping 11. 66 . The badger truck is really looking interesting to a lot of people. The stock, though, by the way, while up today, is still down by about half month to date. Hot fun in the summer. Today kicks off one of the busiest earnings week of the season. Look at the calendar. Four of the royal names in tech, facebook, amazon, apple, and alphabet google, yeah, they report this week. Of course, they have delayed them because all four of those leaders are going to appear on wednesday, but look at wednesday as well. The economic events this week include the Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision which comes out wednesday, and of course, we all want to hear what fed chief Jerome Powell has to say about how he sees the economy and what the feds ready to do if it sees the economy take another leg down. All that sounds very important. Perhaps every investor should be paying more attention to this. The u. S. Dollar is at a twoyear low and dropping. Gold is at an alltime high of more than 1900 an ounce. And the tenyear treasury yield, look at this,. 57 , ticking lower ahead of the feds meeting. Some believe these three things together means we could be witnessing the early formation of a perfect storm that could trigger a major stock selloff. To our floor show. We are joined by john sylvia, president of dynamic Economic Strategy and former wells fargo economist and New York Stock Exchange trader tom hayes. John, start with you. What do you make of these three warning lights, separate, then put together . I think you put them together and they are a warning light. Simply, i understand the feds pursuit of very low Interest Rates to help stimulate the economy, although in my world, the problem with the economy is simply uncertain aggregate demand in the economy. But with low Interest Rates, basically again, for equities, its a low discount for future earnings so you can understand why stock prices are up. Also, with the low Interest Rate, the opportunity cost of holding gold or silver is also incredibly velolow, so you can understand why thats up as well. These are interrelated driven by those low treasury rates which at this point in time, quite frankly, i dont see rates as the problem for the u. S. Economy. I think its uncertain demand. Liz john, let me push you, though. Right now we have seen the tenyear tick slightly higher, if we can get that up on the screen. 61 . You are looking at this at the moment when you see that plus the gold picture, 1944 with the earlier high there, we are starting to see some strange things happening just as the stock market continues to rise. What trigger will you be looking for . Well, the challenge i think is the tenyear but also the credit spreads. What i would be looking at, the high yield spread, the aa corporate spread for high grade, both are below the levels of february. So im thinking okay, now why is that possible. Again, i think with the fed buying corporate bonds, it really has pushed those quality spreads lower. I would look at the following. Look at the real economy, jobless claims, look at the financial markets, both the tenyear and credit spreads. Liz what about you, what are you looking at, tom . As a trader, you are way more, im not saying tick by tick, but certainly week by week, maybe 24 hours a day, you are looking at these moves. When you step back, are you seeing anything that worries you at all . Not so much worry, liz. I think number one, obviously we have to get the extension of the enhanced unemployment. We now know that the bid from the republicans is an extra 200 a week, the ask from the democrats is the status quo, an extra 600 per week. That needs to go into place right away because those expired this weekend. I think we will get that carveout hopefully by the end of the week. The second thing i think we will see this week is in the fomc statement, more rhetoric about yield curve control which will be a very positive thing because unlike 1947, they are focused on the short end of the curve up to the fiveyear treasury which means they will let the long end go out, that yield curve steepening which will incentivize banks to lend to Small Businesses to do mortgages, to lend to consumers, thats great for the recovery. Youve got to have that credit extension and then of course, tech earnings and the tech hearings. The hearings are on wednesday, the earnings are on thursday. These stocks are priced for perfection. Theyve got to meet that high bar or we are going to see more of a rotation into cyclicals as we saw last week and as we saw in the month of may when the recovery looked quick. Those are the key focus things im paying attention to right now. Liz john, when you look at the overall picture, and you see everything, we are also waiting on a stimulus plan that will be hopefully greenlit for all the 35 Million People, 32 Million People who are unemployed right now, are you worried that if we dont see a plan, that this could somehow trigger some type of disruption or dislocation in the markets . I would say yes for two reasons. One is simply consumer sentiment. Without another package, you do have 3 million plus people whose attitudes toward their jobs and Economic Future has just deteriorated. Second, picking up on the Prior Program with charles payne, a lot of these are Service Workers and the sense that these people just dont have the deep pockets to sustain Consumer Spending Going Forward, so yes, i would take it as very much a fiscal cliff, if you want, and very much a negative for the economy and for a lot of Consumer Discretionary stocks. Liz great to see both of you guys. I dont know if we can at least look at this but we did get, tom, a nice number for durable goods for the month of june. That was a big surprise to the upside here. When you look at names like caterpillar, some of the heavy equipment companies, even with an overhang of whats going on with the tensions between the u. S. And china which we are going to talk about coming up, doesnt that still bode rather well for those companies . No question about it, liz. You see the economic surprise index the last couple weeks at record highs. The Economic Data continues to be, we will see it also for q2 gdp on thursday. We will definitely beat. So moving forward, i think we will see this progression of economic beats and recovery and getting closer and closer to a vaccine and thats what this stimulus package is all about. A few months bridge until we get a vaccine at the end of the year and get back to normal. Liz well, it is the Manhattan Project right now. Operation warp speed which is exactly what the president is going to at least look at one of these 200 companies that trying desperately around the world to find a vaccine. Great to see you both. John, welcome. We appreciate, tom, as always. Weve got the closing bell ringing in 48 minutes. Yes, apple is set to report earnings on thursday but that will hardly be the main attraction. For the First Time Ever, these four biggest of the big tech ceos will be together this wednesday, testifying before a House Judiciary Committee over their companys market dominance and the perceived effect on consumers. Weve got the guy who has been there before but on the other side. Hes faced congress to rip what he calls the monopolistic practices of three of them. Up next, david hanson weighs in. The claman countdown will be right back. vo since our beginning, our business has been people. And their financial wellbeing. Its evident in good times, with decisions focused on the longterm. And crucial when circumstances become difficult. That continued emphasis on people our advisors, associates, clients and communities gives us purpose, strength and a way forward. Today. And always. Simon pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. Touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Liz this is a first of its kind event for big tech, and it is years in the making. Amazons jeff bezos, apples tim cook, Sandar Pichai of alphabet and Facebooks Mark Zuckerberg all set to appear virtually before the house judiciary antitrust subcommittee on wednesday. The hearing will mark a rare public interrogation of big techs most powerful leaders. The tech titans are expected to defend their companys growing power to skeptical law makers. But smaller Tech Companies have been sounding the alarm for years. Basecamp cofounder and chief tech officer is the only one who has testified before the same antitrust subcommittee to warn that big Tech Companies quote, bully, extort or should they please, even destroy our business unless we accept their often onerous, exploitive and everchanging terms and conditions. Dave hanson ending his january testimony with a nod to star wars by saying help us, congress, youre our only hope. Okay. Here in a fox business exclusive is basecamps david hanson ahead of wednesdays big day. What are you expecting to see and what do you Hope Congress will do . I expect to see that theres going to be four incredibly wellprepared executives who will have been drilled by their p. R. Teams to keep this as boring and technical as possible. It is really up to congress to highlight how these issues are anything but boring, that these are some of the most important issues of the modern economy and the control these companies have must be constrained by law, that we cant rely on markets to correct this now that they seem to have complete control over these markets. Liz when you testified before congress in january, you hit google, you hit apple and you hit facebook, but apple is your biggest beef. In fact, your app, an email organizing app, hey, hey, which is fantastic, it costs money, they gave you a very hard time and they want you to pay what everybody has to pay, the 30 commission for every single customer you get. You called that a gangster move. You basically accused them of being the mafia. If you were to advise congress and whisper in their ear, what question would you tell them they have to ask tim cook to make him shaky if thats even at all possible . Pretty tough guy. I think they have to dive into exactly that fallacy you just proposed, that everyone pays this 30 because thats not true at all. You have to highlight this to the American People. Right now, the app store which is essentially the app economy, about 14 of the apps pay for the other 86 . The other 86 are either excluded from having to pay because they made sweetheart deals with apple or they fund their operations through advertisement which is excluded from apples cut. So you have these 14 of apps which include our apps that are getting shaken down so we can pay for the rest. Why should basecamp have to pay for facebook . Basecamp is a Small Software developing company. We dont have billions of dollars to pay for it and at the same time, apple is asking us for 30 of our revenues and tell facebook you can get away with paying 99 a year because you make your billions off advertisement. That is just profoundly, inherently unfair and Congress Needs to dive into that and show the American Public this is not at all a fair marketplace. Its an incredibly rigged and specifically designed marketplace that takes sort of advantage of the weakest that they can. Apple knows it cant take on facebook directly so they take on small players like us. Liz you took on google as well, where your issue with google is actually, google controls, you say, how customers or whether customers can even find the Smaller Companies on the internet, because they dominate search and therefore, they know what they want to push up higher. Thats what you allege. But what would you Tell Congress to push Sundar Pichai on . On exactly that point. Is google a Search Engine that helps you find things on the internet or is google simply a storefront for Everything Else alphabet offers. For youtube or other properties that google already has, theres a bunch of Interesting Research that shows that google is sending more and more and more traffic to its own services because they have this monopoly in the front door of the internet. When they have that monopoly it simply means people cant just go gooigle whatever they want t find and expect to find the best thing thats available. No. They will find googles own thing which is also an abuse of power. We are sort of squeezed between all four, although particularly for our business, apple and google, they are squeezing from each side. Google is squeezing us to buy advertisement so people can search for basecamp and find our product. Apple is asking us if they do find us hey, we want 30 of your revenue. This is really the overall situation Congress Needs to paint that this is a total issue. Its not about one little thing. Its about the fact its become incredibly difficult to start a competitor and a Small Company in todays software world. Liz the difference, though, is that during the financial crisis, congress did go after big banks. They redid all kinds of regulation and they hit them hard in front of the public, because the public was angry with them. Youve got now these big Tech Companies which have made life a lot easier for the consumer, at least they perceive it. Im interested to see jeff bezos, first of all, hes never out there. He doesnt talk a lot. Do you think that he wil