Transcripts For FBC The Journal Editorial Report 20240712 :

FBC The Journal Editorial Report July 12, 2024

Mary, what does ill tell us it tell us about the economy . Mary i think its good news and what we had to say in all of this is we are not getting back to february any time soon because unless we have the virus basically solved, there are lots of economies that are not going to open and the fact that we are doing better than just threading water here, make gains, thats good news. In the in the half halffull camp i would say theres less momentum. We had better momentum in june and may and we are still down 13 million jobs and as we try to get below 10 unemployment, now at 10. 2, thats where it becomes more difficult to restore those jobs short of a vaccine. Paul jason, it would seem on marys momentum point that the flareup in the summer to have virus in the south and South Western States did seem to slow the growth of of jobs, you did see a lot of restaurant jobs, a lot of Leisure Hospitality jobs come back but theres still millions that that are on the sidelines. Bill yeah, striking in the initial surge of coronavirus in the spring we lost tens of millions of jobs, we had the surge in the summer, millions of new infections but it hasnt led to a surge in unemployment in the same way. In fact, some jobs are coming back, despite all of the cases we are still seeing jobs come back and now the cases are starting to decline so maybe thats going to give some of the momentum that mary is talking about Going Forward if the declines continue. Paul bill, the lesson that i take away here is that the the key to to really getting a much more robust recovery is one, getting rate of infection down so that people so that politicians dont willy nilly dont shut down the government again and average people say you know what, i feel safe going back to work. Bill absolutely, look, we are still the goal needs to be to get the economy running on all cylinders and we are far away from that and then you watch Congress Kind of fiddling over this stimulus package that has nothing no real progrowth element. I guess you could call payroll tax a bit of a progrowth but its very, very small. The key is to get people back to work and as you say make them feel comfortable. We are in a very different situation from when the virus first broke out. I mean, we know a lot more, we can manage risks better, but i think our political apparatus is not moving as fast as we need to encourage business and encourage people to get back to work which is the only real cure for a lot of people that are struggling out there. Paul mary, do you agree with that, with bill that the politicians are holding us back . They would say wait a minute, we need to close bars and restaurants down because otherwise we wont slow the infection curve . Mary i think they are walking a difficult line because if they dont get people to wear a mask and social distance and so forth they do run the risk of big outbreaks, but i think the thing that we need to focus on the most here is helping people basically get through this what is a pandemic. I mean, bottom line and that means as bill says, you know, doing things that help Small Businesses survive, lessoning the load of taxing and Regulatory Burden and doing what you can to help them run their business. People want to run their businesses, they want to survive this thing and thats where government could really lend a hand. Paul well, mary, do you think we need another extension of payroll protection plan, for example, which congress is considering or do you think that this payroll tax deferral that the president has been talking about would make a difference . Mary well frankly i dont like either one but if i had to choose one i would choose payroll deferral. The problem is there are two problems with large government packages. One is that you have to pay them back. The democrats talk about throwing more money at this problem, if its cost free and thats not true. Somebody is going to be on the hook for that and its going to affect our fiscal story Going Forward. The other problem is that as long as people are given benefits that disincentives them from going and looking for work, i think human nature teaches us that they are not going to look for work. I dont like to say that across the board. Plenty of people are looking for work and cant find it but you need to strike the right balance helping people that are in trouble and disincentivizing work. Paul all right, thank you all. When we come back, President Trump tries out a new line of attack against rival joe biden while the former Vice President reportedly narrows his list of potential running mates. We will have the very latest from the campaigigigig i like liberty mutual. 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Hes going to do things that nobody ever would think even possible because hes following the radicalleft agenda. Take away your guns, destroy your second amendment, no religion, no anything. Paul President Trump thursday in cleveland testing a new line of attack against democratic opponent joe biden with former Vice President leading in some key battleground states. The Trump Campaign this week launched a pair of new ads claiming biden has embraced the policies of the radical left, that messaging comes as biden gets set to name running mate in the coming days, so will his pick play into the president s new strategy . Lets bring in democratic pollster doug sean, he served as adviser to Mike Bloombergs president ial campaign. Doug, welcome, good to see you again. So tell us where the race stands right now particularly in those crucial swing states . Seems biden has a pretty clear lead . Doug yeah, he has 7 and a half, 8point lead nationally, about 5 and a half, 6 points in the swing states, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania and theres a clearly outside of market of error. Paul with that in mind, seems like the Trump Campaign is retooling its messaging and its rolling out these two ads and trying to make a consistent message that says biden has moved too far left to be safe for you to vote for. What do you think of that line of attack . Doug look, i think it is a reasonable line of attack that will help potentially tighten the race. In this environment, we do not want higher taxes, the ads that you alluded to quotes biden of saying, youre certainly right, i will raise taxes. That is a topic for swing voters, even swing voters so i think it will help, will it game changer, i dont know. Paul why not gamechanger . Why wouldnt it work . Doug i think itll help to tighten the race republicanleaning suburbanites, independents, theyll be impact but the president s ratings on coronavirus are so low now such as saying the country is headed in the wrong direction that i dont think taxes or potentially reducing Police Funding will be enough to paul gamechanger would be a, getting more control over the coronavirus which, b, would allow the economy to reopen more and grow faster, is that the potential gamechanger, the biggest factor in your view . Doug exactly right. The president has to make the case that we turn the corner on both the virus and the economy, a tough face to make now and the other engaged in, paul, is as you said the Vice President ial choice, it has to be somebody qualified. Paul okay. I think the debates are going to happen. Do you have any doubt that they will . Doug i only doubt that the number of debates three that im certain but, yes. Paul okay, all right. On the vp choice that youre saying that the most important factor will be somebody who appears to be able to be president if the president himself, joe biden, cant serve . And i would argue that this is a more important pick than any recent vp choice for precisely that reason given joe bidens age, do you agree with that . Doug i completely agree and thats why i think his only choice is Kamala Harris. Paul really . Doug yeah, shes a sitting u. S. Senator, she was a moderate and will help her with swing voters and she was air of confidence about her and everybody is either too far left and too inexperienced and real problem on Foreign Policy issue like susan rice has with benghazi. Paul what about the downsides of Kamala Harris, shes a coastal liberal . She came out for medicare for all at first. She was at first sort of a Green New Deal supporter. I agree that shes shown flexibility ideologically but but, you know, shes a california liberal. Wont the campaign be able to Trump Campaign be able to make hay with that one . Doug i think that all of the candidates are prospective candidates and raise real problems. I think she raise it is least amount of problems for joe biden and hes best qualified to govern which you said correctly is criteria. Every other candidate has real problems. Paul and you dont think that susan rice who is the former National Security adviser for president obama has the same kind of appeal because she seems to be also somebody that biden has looked at very, very closely in. Doug i think lacking any domestic experience, as we say in politics, having real questions about what she did about benghazi will create real problems for her and i think Kamala Harris is better choice and safer choice and more realistic. Paul thats interesting, doug sean, we will see if your counsel prevails in the Biden Campaign. Thank you for being with us. When we come back read joe bidens lips, 3 trillion in new taxes. 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Kyle sure, he wants to raise taxes in all marginal taxes, 39. 6 from todays 37 and he also wants to treat Capital Gains, for example, as ordinary income. He wants to raise the Corporate Tax on businesses to 28 from todays 21 and then he wants to apply a 11. 4 Social Security tax on all earnings over 400,000 which is a lot. Thats a huge tax increase. Paul well, because right now the Social Security tax is capped at 137,000 and change, so what hes basically saying is, thats a 12. 4 percent increase employer and employee on anything that you earn above 400,000, thats a huge increase on top of, of course, the regular income tax rate which he would raise to 39. 6. Thats huge. Kyle right, half paid by the employee and half paid by the employer, but if you talk to economists, they say that essentially its all paid by the employee, by the worker, because the the business is not going to pay that out of its profits. Its going to lower its wages and so essentially the whole of the tax burden falls on workers. Paul all right, mary, Capital Gains, i know you and i have followed this for a long time. What does it mean to raise the capital, tax on the sale of a acapital asset from the current 23. 8 top rate, 20 plus a 3. 8 surcharge up to what would be well above 40 . Mary, all i can say, paul, im glad that i [laughter] mary its risk taking. People take risks because they think they can make a profit so as you increase the tax on the gain, people start looking at that as saying is it worth taking the risk because even if i make money i will have to give a lot back to uncle sam and, you know, and in many states including new york and california there are state Capital Gains taxes as well and youre starting to keep an awful big take from the government on this game that you might make if you deploy these assets in something thats productive in the economy and i think thats, you know, the main problem with the biden plan is that it taxes the additional effort and risks that someone would make in order to increase productivity, so it discourages that action and that is not good for the economy. Paul it would be the highest capital tax rates since 1970s. Bill, joe biden would increase 21 to 28 , but of course it had been higher in mid30s under obama and the democratic point, the democratic point, its not a big deal, fairness, making corporations pay and most American Public public says as long as its not taxing me, go tax the company, what do you think . Bill right, we dont really know who pays those taxes. It could come out in price, it could come out in workers and so forth. The democratic argument is that theres no disincentive affects in raising cost of things through taxes and the dirty secret of joe bidens tax plan, whole plan, even with the estimated 3 to 4 trillion thatled raise raised and would not be enough for climate spending, infrastructure spending, thats not enough. He seems to be trying to copy the most dubious parts i think to the trump agenda, the America First tariffs and so forth and and having artificial incentives to encourage American Companies at the expense of others and hes completely ignoring the parts of the trump agenda that really work, the tax cuts and the regulation. Maybe this would be a winning political message but i dont think its going to help our economy. Paul kyle, let me ask you about the politics because i think the Biden Campaign is making a bet that, you know, tax increases really dont matter as an issue anymore but as long as he can promise that its not anybody under 400,000, people are going to say its not me, the guy behind the tree. Kyle i think thats true, and so this is a strange year. I think that this would be pretty politically, biden were running against a generic republican or running not in the middle of Global Pandemic but both of those things being true, i think they are betting that there are a lot of voters who may not sign onto this agenda but who might say, well, would i rather have this or four more years of donald trump. Paul maybe taxes arent as salient this year. We will find out. The battle over reopening schools as teacher unions and progressive groups stage a national day of resistance. We will tell you what theyre demanding before theyre willing to return to the classroom and to return to the classroom and why they want private schools to when you think of a bank, you think of people

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