Beyond. That first macro trends advisor mitch rishel joins me now, retailers were already offering deep discounts ahead of the start of the Holiday Shopping season despite all the advanced shopping, is there still some pentup demand . I think theres tremendous pentup demand, deep discounts went down into the summer and some retailers especially the division is offering them as black friday deals on fridays in july and august, tremendous pentup demand, i think its cabin fever, retail therapy, i think there is enough momentum to carry us through the holidays with the level of volume. Dagen is there enough money to curious into the holidays remember the extra money people were getting on their unemployment checks that expired at the end of july, is there enough money that people have socked away to really drive sales . I think so, you look at the savings rate which spiked in april and even has come down a bit, it is still two times the level of savings that americans normally do think about the travel industry, people are not taking vacations, theyre not going to movies, many folks are not going out to dinner, all of that money being saved, some of that is going to get spent on the holidays and you see National Retail federation raise the testament for the holiday so osome of the other prognosticators is setting up to be a strong Holiday Season. Dagen before we move on you have ideas in terms of shopping, are we missing the fact that the brick enter brickandmortar retailers have online components but the stores could benefit because people are so eager to get out. In fact you see some retailers, not necessarily the largest chains but some of the regional ones are actually offering deals instore only which is a challenge in some places because were seen a new phase of lockdowns and physical restrictions. They are trying to figure it out and instore is a viable option. Dagen other than shopping yet ideas of what people should be doing with their money before the end of the year, start with health. Listen, one thing i would say if you want to buy a house, dont wait. I continue to talk to folks who were saying and think about buying a house, do not wait, there is not a lot of supply on the market, is the lowest level of supply, almost that weve ever seen, if you want one you are not alone, go out, is not the traditional time a year, if you can find one on the market, dont wait, jump on it. Dagen if you own a home, its surprising how few people have looked to see if refinancing would make financial sense. When Interest Rates started to come down and you saw the fed intervening and lowering Interest Rates, a lot of people race to refinance, its very painful slow process, i would say dont wait there either, nows a great time to refinance, will you miss it by an eighth of a point perhaps but everything about doing it, i would say do it now. Dagen next up your idea stop trying to time the market, dollar cost averaging, always a porton reminder. Even the pros and especially if you have a 401k and you have an employer match at the end of the year, dont dump that into the market all at once, do it monthly, paycheck by takeup but do it consistently, it is a way to smooth out the volatility in the market and not try to time the system. Dagen have some money outside of the market, that is your next idea. Dagen 100 , i think for those folks that want to get into investing stocks and bonds and want to potentially buy a home as i mentioned earlier, dont put all your money in the market i think people see the headlines on our network and others, the fact of the matter is leave a little bit of dry powder outside of the market, its always a good idea to keep that liquidi liquidity. Dagen if your worry about new tax laws sell . It seems counterintuitive what i just said, but there are folks who have gains about a stock ten years ago and have a huge gain and they may need that money next year, there is a chance that we may see Capital Gains tax rates go up, it is hard to tell what will happen in the georgia elections and hard to see what the biden tax policy will be but if you are thinking you will need some money you can sell at the end of the year because right now of favorable longterm capital gain tax rate and that may go away next year, through looking to sell in the next several months not a bad idea to sell before the end of the year. Dagen thank you so much always a pleasure to see you, you always come loaded thank you. Dagen stay with us marias oneonone with bob nardelli what he has to say about the state of the economy next year. That is coming up. [ thunder rumbles ] [ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know theres a 30minute limit, right . Tell that to the rain. 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While taking eliquis, you may bruise more easily and it may take longer than usual for any bleeding to stop. Seek immediate medical care for sudden signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. Eliquis may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. Tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. Ask your doctor about eliquis. And if your ability to afford. Your medication has changed, we want to help. Dagen welcome back the election finally behind us, Business Owners are anxiously looking ahead to the future former chrysler in home depot barb nondeadly was part of a meeting with ceo from fortune 500 nobodies and another one with mid to smallcap entrepreneurs, the talks ranging from taxes to tariffs, he sat down with maria to discuss how Business Leaders are preparing for the year ahe ahead. And talking to the fortune 500 ceos i was part of the organization and theres tremendous concern out there today certainly the pandemic cast a large shadow over the future of the business but i think what the administration changed certainly has high for the concern about the certainty of the economy, in other words is a administration has been very supportive of business reducing corporate tax, getting rid of bureaucracy, reducing the regulations, working on tariffs and pretrade, theyve done a tremendous job in encouraging return of jobs and on shoring back to the u. S. What im hearing from the large ceos first of all is tremendous concern, all we going to lose the advantage of the tax rate the game is Global Competitiveness if we go from 2e potential tax on Capital Gains, if you look at some of the issues, there is a whole host of things that have ceos at a gridlock about how to plan for the future, what do they do with capital allocation, what did they do with new product introduction, what can they do in innovation and r d, that was a general theme that we heard, we took some poles of the ceos and for example big on their mind was digital transformation, going from analog to digital in the rate of change that certainly all of us you have and we have had to significantly modify the way we communicate just like we are today, they are talking a lot about customer expectations, and the customer expectation is supply chain and these people will focus a lot on supply chain, on score of customers in the digital transformation, that the general theme that came out of that, if we moved to the midcap and the Entrepreneur Group of ceos, again same concern but the concern run a little deeper down there, a lot were very appreciated of the ppp and the support network that came out but there was a specific end date and there is no continuation of the subsidies program, what theyre saying, it was great on the payroll for a while but the biggest concern is revenue so they said we ought to switch our focus from ppp to gdp and that means opening up the country and allowing us to get back to work. Those are some of the big things i heard from the ceo. Dagen i totally understand that, they need growth and we want to identify where the growth is in the world, so far growth has been in the consumer, the consumer has held up well even in the face of this pandemic and even if we sell softening in the month of october, housing has also held up very well, this is one having run home depot for as long as you did, tell me about housing and the consumer, youve got to believe that the stimulus is still there from looking at where Interest Rates are, near 0, that is good for mortgages. No question, there has been winners and losers through this pandemic and i would say certainly Residential Housing has been a real winner for anybody in that sector primarily because of the Interest Rates and Mortgage Rates that you mentioned number one, number two were seen a lot of people relocate out of cities like new york city into the suburbs looking for homes out there for a different lifestyle and avoid some of the issues in the large metropolitan cities that we are seeing, housing has been great, we see is clearly a sellers market and pricing has gone up and so the advantage of lower mortgages have offset some of that and weve seen all the commodities that go into that in the lumber, wire, plumbing and so forth, commodity pricing and availability are robust and presenting some concerns when getting it done if you look at home depot, lows, tractor supply, it is benefited from doityourself projects, people are locked up and looking for projects and things to occupy their time. You will see my expenses, that prepandemic or not, what happened people dont want their homes and disarray for the holiday so we may see some of the strong sales or remodeling subside a little bit but i think itll be picked up with Holiday Spending to your point, the consumer has really been provided backbone to get through this in a positive way, i think thats what we might see in the Fourth Quarter and then i think we my hit back depending on the length of the pandemic what we might see with medicines that are coming out, vaccines and so forth, we may see that pickup again in the First Quarter or Second Quarter of next year but i think corporations overall are going to have to make bold decisions going into next year end try to sort out what the Political Landscape may be in certainly a big part of that is in georgia with the two senators seats that are in play. Maria those senate races, generate fifth will see what happens, that will be the end result in terms of how many of these tax policies, progressive policies get through depending on whether the republicans are in control of the senate or the democrats, amazing that next week is december, here we are the year is almost over i think the people would like to say byebye 2020. Dagen thanks to bar bob nardel, up next maria talks wit we made usaa insurance for veterans like martin. When a hailstorm hit, he needed his insurance to get it done right, right away. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa its time for theraflu hot liquid medicine. Powerful relief so you can restore and recover. Theraflu hot beats cold. Powerful relief so you can redamom, look geter. Sare you okay . . Head home this holiday with the one you love. Visit your local mercedesbenz dealer today for exceptional lease and financing offers at the mercedesbenz winter event. Finding the right words can be tough. N it comes to autism, finding understanding doesnt have to be. Together, we can create a kinder, more inclusive world for the millions of people on the autism spectrum. Go to autismspeaks. Org adapting. Innovating. Lsetting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Dagen welcome back the state of retail wall strong holiday sales are expected the season, will this only be a temporary reprieve, paul trible, the mens Apparel Company blood very has had a front row seat and navigating the volatility of retail, he recently gave maria his outlook on the future. What are you expecting the retail backdrop. Black friday kicks off the Holiday Season between cyber monday, this year isnt much different than past years but were all hopeful what should be a good Holiday Season , it might be a little less important today than in past years due to bringing up discounts, we saw black friday start in october in some cases the americans are trying to shop during this period and we think they will come out and were optimistic for couple of reasons, we see in a surge in Consumer Spending people for the first time in a decade gotten away from experiences because they cant have them, going on restaurants, vacations, buying more things because a 7 increase. I think that is up and for a business like ours a menswear we brand, we think they will come back because spending, our business will see a lot of customers online, we also sell wholesale as well but online for 90 of us and we see a 45 increase in online spending and this is the place you need to be and its important to have what customers want, obviously home fitness, if you look at apparel which is where we are it has been the casual clothing, comfortable things that you can wear inside and also outdoor, and also casual shirts and outerwear, the dress shirt business is not really a sellers issue but flannel shirts and sweaters and outerwear is up about 35 this year so we have that continued, we need to be online and meet people with what theyre looking for and that casual is what we have now. Maria i was astounded how strong ecommerce has been and how strong the consumer has held up throughout this pandemic. Over the last couple of weeks, the month of october, it looks like a little bit of a soft spot for retail sales than what we got this past week, are you seeing the consumer slowdown and tell me about discounting this Upcoming Season are you expecting a lot of discounting. Discounting has been rampant in past years, discounting is something new and thats only way youre selling some not there, i think that is heightened by the pandemic and i think you sell the discount being brought forward in october, early november but i dont think thats how we shop, were trying to think about lets get our holidays around black friday, cyber monday and will shop during this period and you will see consumers come back online, from a marginal ration perspective, if everyone is 25 , today were 35 off which is our best discount of the year, that obviously erodes margins, on top of that you have issues Like International freight charges which are bringing their product in from europe and asia and is got up 300 and lastly youre looking at what will be a shorter challenger which might be trouble for retailers, not necessarily the days between holiday and christmas are black friday and christmas but shifting domestically, we had trouble getting products on time to customers we see that across the Retail Sector so i think shipping will cut off a week early than last year, this is a critical holiday. And Everybody Needs to sell inventory and bring up revenue, it is going to be critical to come back but we expect to come back online and be a large swing shoslingshot between today and christmas. Maria you make so many great points, what about foot traffic, how do you look at 2021. When you look back to the 2008 financial crisis yet 400 plus retailers go out of business, this pandemic you had half of all restaurants be unable to make it in certain cities like new york, what you expect in terms of brickandmortar and 2021 given all of the worries about big cities, security, safety, thats why ecommerce has been so strong right. Of course is the flipside, ecommerce is growing the brickandmortar retail, i think its a challenge even our own stores and we are down 40 , likely 90 ecommerce, i dont expect to be, with the holiday or the First Quarter, i think with the rising cases, obviously that is a concern and people wont restaurant, theyre not going to be going out of the holiday but i think with black friday, going to tell retailers which ones are going to survive, it is critical, as you mentioned 2,018,009, 400 bankruptcies, i think it will be 50 fisher, i think the chain is been delayed by government assistance, it is critical holiday work for people but some of these businesses particular brickandmortar, others are going to look at it and say what stores do i need in my portfolio, do i need this expensive collection of stores and really if holiday does not come back in q1 does not come back you will see a shrinking putting that money into ecommerce and putting it into customers the way theyre trained to shop which is online. I think the First Quarter 2021 will be slow and i think retail will be hard, i think the pandemic will be a struggle until we get the vaccine, if i come back from the thing in nine months, ill be wellpositioned, ill be able to get out to my customers. Dagen thanks to paul trible of library, dont go anywhere, more wall street after this. Did you know you can go to libertymutual. Com to customizes your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need . Really . I didnt aah ok. Im on vibrate. Aaah only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. groans hmph. food grunting menacingly when the food you love doesnt love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. Tum tumtum tum tums har betsy tums smoothies. Twelquarter mile of tinsel. Lights. harold and real snow all the way from switzerland. betsy hmmhm. Gonna be tough to top. betsy well played. vo add some thrill to your wish list. At the season of audi sales event. Get exceptional offers now. Adapting. Innovating. Lsetting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Dagen that is all for this week, be sure to join us on fox business every friday night at 9 00 p. M. Eastern for another edition of wall street, tune in sunday morning on the Fox News Channel for sunday morning features, catch the show at 10 00 a. M. Eastern and start smart, tune in weekdays from 6 00 a. M. To 9 00 a. M. Eastern with mornings when maria right here on fox business, that will do it for us, thank you for watching, we will see you next time. Gerry welcome to the wall street journal at large in normal times this is a weekend when america go shopping, the turkey leftovers are about done in many ready to liberate ourselves from the family for a while and retailers traditionally entice shoppers with irresistible discount but you dont need me too remind you this is not normal times of covid19 cases rising some states imposing more restrictions on travel, entertainment, hospitality and
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